Hear me out - what if it's just an unfortunate situation with no one to blame?

Submitted by jcorqian on February 2nd, 2022 at 8:10 AM

I work in investing and have seen the progression of things get shorter-term over time, especially with a 24/7 media and an insatiable desire for more real-time information.  I've observed that the media especially has tended to dumb down complex situations into easy-to-process soundbites that oftentimes leaves out context or doesn't reveal the bigger picture.  And especially so, we seem to need a binary explanation that is black and white - someone to blame, someone to glorify, winners and losers.  But most of the time, that's not how the world works.  And I think that applies to the current situation.

 

I might get crucified for this view, but I'm actually not sure that Harbaugh has done anything wrong.  And I might even say the same thing about Warde / the AD.  Again, please hear me out.

 

In defense of Harbaugh:

 

The man left the NFL to come back to Michigan when Michigan was a disaster, and I really believe he tried his best to turn things around.  He's been screwed in many ways that we all know about so I won't re-hash, and I would venture to say that he found the playing field far more uneven than he would have thought with all the cheating going on and the shutting down of his innovations like satellite camps.  Let's not forget that he left in what was likely the prime of his NFL career to come back here.  He was an All-American here, and I genuinely believe that even with all of this going on he truly loves the program.  After being slapped in the face in 2020, he stayed and worked his ass off to win big this year.  He may view that he has accomplished what he had set out to do, which was make Michigan a strong, respectable program again.

 

I think many people wouldn't necessarily disagree with the above.  Here's where I may differ from many.  I acknowledge that Harbaugh has zero control over the NFL hiring timeline.  The NFL doesn't care whatsoever about college football and its timelines...  these jobs are coming open when they do, and when front office staff are eventually / finally filled.  I do not believe that it has been Harbaugh's intention to screw over the program in terms of timing.  It's probably not something he has any control over whatsoever.

 

As far as any "betrayal" of Michigan, well, consider the following.  Harbaugh is 58 with small children at home and a wife that probably doesn't want to put up with his relentless recruiting schedule anymore.  As much as he loves Michigan and Ann Arbor, he loves his family more (or he should!).  He knows that Michigan isn't on a level playing field and that the institution (rightly or wrongly to us, for me personally wrongly) will not do what is necessary to level that playing field.  Going against Georgia, he probably understands that it's insurmountable given the situation.  His brother also has a Superbowl ring in a game that he personally lost in - that has to mean something as well.  The NFL is as level a playing field as there is in pretty much any sport globally, so he knows that he can succeed or fail (more so at least) based on his own abilities alone.  Finally, 7 years is a LONG time in someone's career and dedicate yourself to something.  I certainly wouldn't want to stay in the same job that long - at some point, new people, new challenges, new goals become more interesting.  That's pretty human.

 

Now the tricky part - Harbaugh clearly wants to go to the NFL instead of college.  But obviously - to me at least - he can't just come out and say that to everyone.  What's he going to say to Michigan / his staff / his players, that if there's an NFL offer he's going to take it and will only come back to Michigan as a last resort?  Obviously in the event that he doesn't get any NFL offers and has to come back to Michigan, then that's going to bite him in the ass.  People will clearly know he doesn't want to be there.  Michigan might even fire him, leaving him unemployed.  Now he is clearly wealthy, but still a guy like that doesn't want to be unemployed.  Of course he's going to say the "right" things!  I mean what else could he possibly say - it's a lose-lose situation completely for him.  And even then we have reports that he was actually being honest with recruits, saying that he's going to pursue NFL interest but will most likely be back (which was probably true at the time). 

 

I'd ask you to put yourself in the situation.  You are in a current job which you like, but isn't really that well suited to your personal life / lifestyle.  Your employer did something that you perceive was disrespectful to you last year in cutting your wages.  You still performed and knocked it out of the park, but your new compensation clearly isn't your employer saying that they would do anything to keep you (at least you perceive this).  You decide to interview at competing firms, which some might say are more prestigious even.  But realistically, you aren't going to tell your teammates / current employer at your current firm that you are planning to leave in case you have to stay...  I won't even elaborate on that - it's incredibly obvious from a upside / downside or risk-reward perspective.  All I'm saying is, I can understand why Harbaugh acted the way he did.  I don't think it was to screw anyone or "hurt" Michigan, even though it obviously is doing so.  It's just his only option.

 

I think we are all emotionally invested in Michigan football as fans and can't imagine a better situation.  But objectively if you are an actual head football coach with NFL or college options, I think there are far "easier" coaching jobs than here.  I would never begrudge a man for doing what he thinks is best for himself and his family.

 

In defense of Warde:

 

Many on here blame Warde for serving up an embarrassing contract to Harbaugh after the 2020 season, as that may have caused today's situation.  Well, again here we need nuance and not just anger or blame.  Multiple things can be true - Warde could have been justified in cutting Harbaugh's comp last year (as I believe he was - the program was in an absolute tailspin), AND Warde could have justifiably taken into account 2021's result and paid Harbaugh $10M a year to stay.  But he didn't, and he clearly doesn't think that Harbaugh is worth that much.  And I'm not sure that it's wrong...  before 2021, Harbaugh had never won the division and the program was on a clear downward trend.  His overall record in 7 years is really objectively good in terms of wins and losses, NFL players produced, etc. but short on actual results (one B10 championship, one shared division title in 2018 when OSU moved on by virtue of beating the piss out of us in the tiebreaker).  Warde clearly chose to pay Harbaugh based on his entire body of work over 7 years, as opposed to extrapolating 2021 in a straight-line going forward.  He isn't making the same "mistake" (in his view) that many market participants are, which is extrapolating recent history far into the future.

 

Personally, I disagree with Warde.  I think making a super strong offer to Harbaugh - say $10M a year - has way more upside than downside, especially with our momentum and also in the context of general coaching salary inflation (in a few more years, I don't think $10M is that crazy).  However, again - nuance - I think that Warde / the AD's decision is pretty defensible.  In the context of Harbaugh's overall body of work, is he really worth more than $7.6M plus incentives to hit >$10M with wins?  While not the decision I would make, I can easily and quite justifiably see the rationale.  In fact, I think there's a case to be made that Warde did Harbaugh a favor by even retaining him at all...

 

It's easy for us now to forget after an incredible season, a win over OSU, and a B10 championship, but the days following the 2020 season were as dark as I can remember.  The program looked to be rising hard in 2018 but then lost in historic fashion to an OSU team that we were actually favored against in Columbus, ruining the season in a completely terrible performance against Florida.  Then in 2019, basically the same thing happens.  Of course, then 2-4 in 2020.  I think without Harbaugh's university ties, he easily could have been fired.  And I would have been completely fine with it.  He lost to the worst MSU team in decades to a first year head coach who once turned down the job, in a game in which we probably out-talented MSU as hard as OSU out-talents us!  I mean, it was one of the biggest upsets in Michigan history.  Is it really so hard to think that Warde actually did him a favor by keeping him at all?

 

Summary:

 

I feel terrible for the players, the non-Harbaugh attached staff, and the program. Undoubtedly we will be set back, and I've always said that Michigan's biggest enemy is itself. That's unfortunately happened again. But what if it's not the result of some draconian and sabotage and vindictiveness, but just a result of horrible timing outside of anyone's control? If Harbaugh had always wanted to go to the NFL (and I think the reasons are totally valid), how else could he have done it? And what else could Michigan do without knowingly overpay (from its perspective) especially if he wanted to leave anyway? Is it not valid that we are all as fans just a victim of randomness and chaos as opposed to any ill-intent on the part of two men who I believe really actually love Michigan?

 

As an aside, I'm surprised at some (many?) who were so adamant that he was staying (and there were a few who thought he was leaving the whole time, just as strangely).  If history is any guide, these things are fairly unpredictable especially in the context of 2020 and 2021.  A good reminder that outcomes can be vastly different from expectations, and always good to keep a flexible mind.  For what it's worth, I'm surprised that it turned out like this, but certainly not shocked - it was well within the realm of the possible, as Balas had always said from the start.

LeCheezus

February 2nd, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^

I think in the end you are right - Warde probably did the best he could have done with data available at the time.  Also worth noting that Jim's total compensation didn't change that much - it was moved from mostly salary to salary plus incentives that basically got him back to where he was in the original contract. 

Is it weird that he then went out and had the best year he's had at Michigan after all of this?  From a talent perspective you could make an argument but I don't think 2021 was his most talented team - probably close with 2016 and 2018 with very different strengths and weaknesses.  Maybe simultaneously it pissed him off and got him refocused or willing to make drastic changes at the same time?  If Warde gives him an extension at 8MM/year last year do we still go 12-2 with B1G Championship and CFP appearance?

Carpetbagger

February 2nd, 2022 at 8:35 AM ^

I agree on your take about everything and everyone needing things black and white nowadays, and how that's a bad thing.

But to be exactly black and white: anyone who thought Harbaugh should have been fired after the Covid year is an imbecile.

If he a bad and disorganized 2021 after that I could see the reasoning. If he had stood pat with the staff, that would have been problematic.

But if you think he legitimately should have been let go after 2020 you should let other people make decisions for you.

jcorqian

February 2nd, 2022 at 8:40 AM ^

Lol, this is a reminder why I don't post here much anymore.  A guy puts some time and thought into some content, and a bunch of responses just saying "too long, didn't read it."  Why even respond at all?  Sorry I'm trying to contribute to the conversation, on a message board.

1VaBlue1

February 2nd, 2022 at 8:43 AM ^

TL/DR.  Couldn't even get through half of this rambling word vomit...

Harbaugh no longer wants to coach at Michigan, for whatever reason - that's pretty clear.  The reason doesn't matter.  Go find some other job, that's cool...  At this point, Vikings or not, just leave.  Get out of town.  You are no longer wanted as HC because you don't want us.  No hard feelings, it's just business - we get that.

And it's not Warde's fault, all he did was what he is managerially and fiducially responsible for - protecting Michigan's sports assets.  Yes, that includes protecting the football program by making it possible to part ways with an under-performing coach.  That's also just business.

Stop gnashing your teeth and rending garments.  Let go of the pearls.  There are other football coaches that can coach Michigan.  Some of them will win bigger than JH did, some will lose more than Rich Rod did.  We can judge Warde by which one he picks...

FlexUM

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:00 AM ^

This may best summarize how I'm feeling. It's not a feeling of anger it's a feeling that it's time to move on (for Harbaugh and UM). Again, not mean or malicious...just business. He did something great this year...these players did something great. Michigan CAN stay on this upward trend without Harbaugh. 

It is time for all to move forward now.

Warde now has the biggest decision of his professional career and his entire career (rightfully or not) may be judged on this upcoming decision. 

I'm actually starting to get excited. Not because I want harbaugh out. Because I've "let go of the pearls" and I want to turn the page and think positive here. This team can be special next year. 

BlueNorthStron…

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:10 AM ^

The “for whatever reason” is that he wants to coach in the NFL if possible and has a chance to right now.  Every person who isn’t try to kick harbaugh on the way out acknowledges that clear fact.

The gnashing of teeth and rending garments section are those like you crying about being done with Harbaugh since he’s exploring NFL options like a bunch of scorned lovers.

If he moves to Vikes there is clearly an opportunity for Warde (and Michigan) to make a great hire and we’d all be excited by that.

username03

February 2nd, 2022 at 8:47 AM ^

This isn't specific to you OP but the amount of effort some people are expending to defend Harbaugh while claiming he's done nothing wrong seems to negate the premise. He's not a deity, he can in fact do wrong, whether he is in fact doing so here or not. I really don't understand the worship of this dude.

ex dx dy

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:13 AM ^

It seems to me that OP is painting a picture of a very human situation playing out in the eye of a public that has no place for humans: only villains and heroes. This is the only take I've seen that actually takes the assumption that all parties are humans rather than ascribe hero/villain roles.

Wolverine 73

February 2nd, 2022 at 8:51 AM ^

Wow, that was long.  I don’t know you can say Harbaugh made Michigan “a proud, respectable program again,” at least not by historic Michigan standards.  One win over OSU in seven tries and basically .500 against MSU doesn’t achieve that level.  Now, he might well have accomplished that over the next 5 years or so with a couple more titles and rivalry wins; but until we see more seasons like this past season, it may well (sadly) be a blip.  A wonderful blip, of course.

brose

February 2nd, 2022 at 8:52 AM ^

Well reasoned and thought out.  Thank you for sharing, I think a lot of what you wrote could very well be true.  GO BLUE!  Onwards and upwards.

ex dx dy

February 2nd, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^

Seems to me like the timing is the one thing you definitively *can't* blame Harbaugh for. That's entirely based around NFL hiring schedules. You can blame him for choosing to interview, for comments he's made or hasn't made, for performance on the field, for recruiting issues because he's interviewing around, etc. But not the timing.

HighBeta

February 2nd, 2022 at 8:55 AM ^

In fewer words: there is a *surplus* of blame to be assigned in this situation. We can argue about it, pontificate, etc. but assigning blame won't change the facts that Warde renewed Jim's contract in a significant way last year (an unpredecented year), Jim then took the team from unranked to the CFP and, citing a "new beginning", Jim chose to devote some energy to leave Michigan for the NFL. 

Hurt feelings, awkward negotiations, 7 year burnout, changes in recruiting,  ... whatever. He's decided to pursue work elsewhere and no one can change that. Probably best to just move on (after much wailing, ranting, etc.) at this point and ponder what's next for The Team in 2022. 

Optimism Attache

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^

I think this is basically right, except for the fact that as much as we speculate we cannot know what exactly his motivations to prefer the NFL over college at this point are. People want what they want and I really do not blame him for that. I’m absolutely certain that he loves Michigan and that there isn’t some terrible insidious reason he wants to go to the NFL. He seems to be handling it about as well as he possibly could given the circumstances, as you point out, which are crappy.

He doesn’t control the timelines and I wouldn’t expect anyone to foreclose his options. He’s obviously not trying to screw anyone over. Anything he says would be perceived as terrible and hurtful to at least some of the Fanbase so it’s obviously better to not say anything. 

jbuch002

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:12 AM ^

Yeah, it's too long, should be a diary entry but encapsulates a good deal of what's going on except one key issue: I believe it was a couple days ago shortly after news broke that Harbaugh was interviewing for the Viking's HC job, that WWJ, Talk Radio 950 talked, on air, to Jack Harbaugh. Jack said, "the Harbaugh's are unhappy with Michigan....."

This has been a background issue since it became illuminated right after the Orange Bowl and involves what some understand to be a rift that developed between JH and M administration (including 2 unnamed regents) over how his current contract came to be. Apparently JH feels like he was treated badly.  That's what may have given rise to his current interest in "entertaining HC offers" from NFL clubs.

Jack Harbaugh's on air comments are likely spin from the Harbaugh camp - a deep rooted family football tree that includes a lot of branches. But let's be honest. Jim has a track record of idiosyncratic behaviors that are off-putting to management at the CFB and NFL levels. If his limited dalliance with the NFL  - well founded rumors that his "people" put out feelers to NFL clubs - following the 2020 season that were rebuffed, are an indication of the reluctance of NFL owners to put up with his inflated perception of his value (e.g., seeking a Gruden type contract), well, we should probably put that reality into the mix of variables that will ultimately decide where Jim ends up.

Frankly, I'm a bit tired of the drama. No one can say this soap opera, especially it's timing and length, is good for the program. Sure, events out of Harbaugh's control are determining the timing but it seems like he's gaming the football coach's hiring process. I think he is over-valuing his worth given his record - the bright and dark parts of it. At this point, I don't care where he ends up.           

azee2890

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^

I don't think Jim or Warde are to blame. I think it is the University itself that is to blame. I think both Jim and Warde are handcuffed by the admission standards and refusal to bend over for the NIL. 

This is likely a huge factor in Jim's decision making. He probably sees no way Michigan can compete with Alabama, OSU, Georgia etc if things don't change in regards to NIL and admissions. It probably took everything he had to beat OSU, hiring assistants that could scheme directly against OSU, finding the right players and dedicating an entire offseason and season to finding a way to defeat them. So what happens after we summit the OSU mountain? We would have had to go through Georgia and Alabama to win a championship and we would have a month and a week to prepare for those two games, not a full year. The only way to overcome that gauntlet is to narrow the talent gap. That isn't happening with the current disadvantages Michigan faces.

Admissions won't change but we should be at least running a top of the line NIL program. If we don't see major steps towards leveling the playing field, we should resign ourselves to being a historically great and currently irrelevant football team. Adapt or die.

maquih

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:27 AM ^

For me it's the stuff he said about this isnt an end but a beginning and he would do this job for free.  Plenty of ways to say wonderful positive things without making people think you never want to leave the job.

 

Blue Vet

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^

Jcorquian, a few thoughts about your post.

1. I don’t think your defense is that unusual. Many of us agree that Harbaugh and Warde have handled the awkward situation about the best they could.

2. That said, I’m amazed you didn’t attract a swarm of downvotes. Sometimes it seems as if posting is mostly an invitation to negging. Like walking into a swarm of mosquitoes deliberately. 

3. Though I agree you’re right about shorter time spans for news and the perils of clickbaiting, the shrinking of complex ideas to simple-minded dichotomy is not new. A century or so ago, newspapers started wars simply to increase circulation. 

jcorqian

February 2nd, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^

Maybe it was more in my head, but I feel like the majority of stuff I've been reading is people blaming either Harbaugh or Warde for the situation.  Forcing one to be the good guy, one to be the bad guy.  Admittedly that might not be on here, as I spend a lot of time on the paywalled forums.  But I wanted to make the case that maybe there's no good or bad guy, and everyone's just human, with their own self motivations to try to enact, without any necessarily ill-intent towards anyone else.  Could just be an unfortunate situation - like I said, neither Jim nor Michigan controls when the NFL decides to hire coaches.

WorldwideTJRob

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:31 AM ^

I personally do not blame Harbaugh, because he is human just like the rest of us and if the right job opportunity presents itself he is willing to look at it and possibly take it. No harm in that at all and once people remove their own personal fandom away they will realize that too.

Beat Rutgerland

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:31 AM ^

Harbaugh is worth 10 million to Michigan.

Michigan is always in the awkward position of being an extremely high profile program that isn't that attractive of a job.

First you have to go through OSU to make the fan base happy, and OSU is going to heavily out-recruit you, and is a well-run program (usually).

Then you've got Sparty who's whole season is the game they play with you, and the fan base will also be mad if you lose to them.

Then you've got administration/ academics issues that make Michigan a more difficult place to recruit than you'd think.

Any coach we get is either going to be a massive downgrade or a massive gamble. People who think somebody like Matt Campbell is going to step in and the program is going to continue to function at a high level have optimism bordering on delusion.

The especially frustrating thing is Harbaugh finally found a formula that worked. With the exception of Georgia, which, whatever, the offense was inspired this year, taking what Harbaugh has always liked to do and integrating modern concepts. This coming season was unlikely to be quite as successful as last season, but you finally have a roadmap for beating OSU 50% of the time. It took 7 years of ups and downs to get to this point, but it's really frustrating to have them get there, and then have Harbaugh leave, because the whole system is way too idiosyncratic to Harbaugh for anybody else to try to replicate it, and now we're going to be starting from zero.

Brainstorm93

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:34 AM ^

If Harbaugh truly is what he purports to be he would stay coach at Michigan until he A.) Dies B.) Retires from coaching or C.) Is fired. Everything else is just typical 'coach speak.' If his nose is bent out of shape because his salary was cut, he truly does not get it and he's more ego than love and respect for the University and fan base.

maizenbluenc

February 2nd, 2022 at 9:57 AM ^

I’m Harbaugh’s age. (He was in my History classes at M.) I can say at this age you look back at what you wish you had done, and try to figure out how to do some of it while you still can.

It can also be possible that he and Warde have communicated on this, and Warde’s contract terms reflect a balanced view of the situation. (I think last year’s contract was a master stroke move.)

The timing sucks, but driven by the NFL as you say.

And yes, there is the aspect of being hamstrung at every creative move, and hamstrung by transfer admissions make the process of doing more than he has just accomplished very unlikely. (As for NIL, the people who have been paying athletes under the table for years — sorry their families for everybody but USC so it is OK — are better at paying athletes “NIL” than M … surprise!)

I’m not going to get upset over this. The guy deserves a chance to do what he wants to do, especially after last season, and the six years before that.

carolina blue

February 2nd, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^

This is the long version of what I’ve been trying to say to some people over the last couple days.  Well said. I think it’s whole host of things, some of which include Harbaugh himself wanting to advance his career/is legitimately (and justifiably) upset with his contract change, and quite the confluence of events over the past week to bring us to this place where he likely will get an offer. If the Vikings don’t hire this particular GM, he doesn’t get one. 

Mich1993

February 2nd, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^

Good post.  I'll add that with his planning on leaving, he put together a staff that would be well positioned to excel after he left.  Bringing in coaches with Michigan connections that could stay through the transition should help with the continuity after he leaves.

He didn't want to leave as a failure, so he stayed until he accomplished the program goals for one year anyway.  The roster is full of talented players and coaches (minus open DC) at all positions.

I'm very sad to see him go, but he rebuilt the program which should set us up for future success and make the head coaching job very appealing.    

bronxblue

February 2nd, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^

Good discussion.  Harbaugh has always been a hyper-competitive, weird guy who likes challenges but also isn't a guy who is going to slam his head against a wall out of loyalty.  He wants to coach in the NFL because he thinks he can still win there, and why the heck not give it a shot after fixing the tire fire left by late-era Carr/RR/Hoke.  UM is back to being one of the better teams in the country and can compete with most teams most of the time.  That's UM's steady state for decades and so you can't expect more.

Warde is doing what he's supposed to do - look out for UM's best interests and that includes trying to keep their HC but recognizing that he can't offer everything Harbaugh wants if that includes "the NFL".  

It sucks but this is the annoying timeframe of CFB-to-NFL (and vice-versa), and there's nothing you can do about it.

BLUECLAW

February 2nd, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^

It's easier for Jim to coach in the NFL over the grind of college for all the reasons that have been mentioned,  not to forget the stupid one time transfer rule that makes you have to coddle boys.

In the NFL, you have control once the player signs the contract. 

Harbaugh can go to Minnesota and use the quirky, get under your skin approach for productivity, we heard he used from guys like Alex Boone.  It will probably work at first.

Matte Kudasai

February 2nd, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^

I think it boils down to him not feeling like he's playing on a level field. From the outrageous unregulated free for all that is currently NIL to the portal.

MSU built their entire team through the portal.  They have signed 25 kids from it in the past 2 years and we can only get a couple of grad transfers.

Secondly, I think his relationship with Warde is obviously strained to say the least.

I honestly don't think it's a burning desire to get back to the NFL in and of itself.

If there were a bevy of great options (which there isn't) most of us wouldn't care about him leaving.

 

DennisFranklinDaMan

February 2nd, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^

I don't know what kind of coaching transitions the many people that seem to be so upset by this expect. These processes are almost always messy, and the "timing" almost always seems unfortunate. But ... Harbaugh couldn't exactly negotiate or plan to leave during the season -- talk about bad timing and negative effects on a team! -- and unless he knows he's leaving and can announce it right after the bowl game, an exploratory process like this simply takes time. Hell, the NFL season isn't even over yet -- it's not like they announce which coaching positions will be available back in November. He's doing it as quickly as is reasonable, and he's not leaving for another college team, so ... Godspeed, thanks, and good luck.

Nobody's happy, but ... Michigan has managed major coaching changes before, and not only survived, but thrived. Just relax, hope everyone acts like adults (which they seem to be so far), and get excited for the next iteration of Michigan football. It might even be better! Who knows?