Searchbits 2: The Tournament May Decide
It's still slow, but:
Viewing Guide
Your Hey This Guy Could Be The Next Coach viewing guide:
THURSDAY
- BYU (Mark Pope) vs Duquense, 12:40 PM, TruTV
- South Carolina (Lamont Paris) vs Oregon, 4pm, TNT
- Dayton (Anthony Grant) vs Nevada, 4:30, TBS
- Colorado State (Niko Medved) vs Texas, 6:50, TNT
- Iowa State (TJ Otzelberger) vs South Dakota State, 7:35, TruTV
- Washington State (Kyle Smith) vs Drake (Darian DeVries), 10:05, TruTV
FRIDAY
- FAU (Dusty May) vs Northwestern, 12:15, CBS
- Baylor vs Colgate (Matt Langel), 12:40, TruTV
- Nebraska (Fred Hoiberg) vs Texas A&M, 6:50, TNT
- Duke (John Scheyer) vs Vermont, 7:10, CBS
- Utah St (Danny Sprinkle) vs TCU, 9:55, TBS
- St Mary's vs Grand Canyon (Bryce Drew), 10:05, TruTV
Jerome Tang and KSU got knocked out of the NIT by Iowa; Amir Abdur-Rahim and USF beat UCF to advance to the second round. Josh Schertz and Indiana State beat SMU 101-92 in the exact opposite of the CSU-UVA game. I would not be surprised to hear that Michigan is poking around Tang soon, because he is just about the only guy even vaguely in the hunt who isn't coaching basketball right now. I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that, hypothetically, unless it continues after guys start getting knocked out.
[After THE JUMP: how about them Rams?]
The Relevant Tourney Game Already Played
Niko Medved and Colorado State obliterated Virginia 67-42. I'm not here to tell you that defensive performance means much against the nation's #211 outfit but Virginia entered that game with the #7 defense in the country and has a 6'8" guy, Ryan Dunn, who's going to go in the first round largely because of his defensive ability.
That 67 doesn't seem that impressive at first glance but once you factor in the sludgeball UVA plays you get 1.1 points per possession, and the remarkable thing is that CSU did this at the rim. They hit 64% of their twos despite missing a number of bunnies and having other shots altered or erased by Dunn. They got zero fast break points, because Virginia, and still had the Cavs in a blender. Some of the passing sequences here are remarkable:
They did not follow the mid-major script to take down an elite high major defense—rain in threes. They only took 14 vs 39 possessions that ended in a 2PA or free throws.
It was a weird experience, being emotionally involved in a basketball game and thinking "I love this offense." Hasn't happened in a couple years.
But This Guy Hasn't Won In The Tourney
Everyone wants to run it back with Beilein, insofar as that is possible, and one crucial component of why Beilein was so attractive is that he had an Elite Eight and Sweet 16 run at West Virginia before coming over to Michigan. Literally no one I highlighted on the above list has been to the Sweet 16 except for May's Final Four run a year ago.
There is not a Beilein out there right now. Let's define "Beilein":
- High major coach.
- Ten-year track record of success.
- Coming off three top 50 teams at a school that does not have a lot of in-built advantages.
- Went to the Elite Eight and Sweet 16 in two of the prior three years.
The previous two S16s had these teams, grouped into a few different categories:
Gonzaga (x2), Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Arizona, Houston (x2), Michigan (woo!), Kansas, Alabama, Creighton, San Diego State, Tennessee, Michigan State, Texas, Xavier, UConn.
Xavier is hypothetically poachable but Michigan isn't hiring Sean Miller. Brian Dutcher is hypothetically poachable but the reasons that's unlikely have been discussed in this space already.
ALREADY POACHED
St Peter's, Providence, Villanova
Shaheen Holloway went to Seton Hall, where he's been NIT-ish his first two years. Ed Cooley left Providence for Georgetown, where he went 9-23 in year one. Jay Wright was poached by retirement.
SEEMS LIKE A BAD IDEA
Arkansas (x2), Texas Tech, Miami (x2)
Texas Tech's Mark Adams resigned after being racist at a player. Miami's Jim Larranaga is three years older than John Beilein; at that point just hire Beilein. The wheels really came off for Eric Musselman at Arkansas this year; they finished 108th in Kenpom and went 6-12 in the SEC. Also, Musselman is in the Hoiberg genre of coaches. The transfer portal he relies on isn't likely to translate.
EH?
UCLA (2x), Princeton, Kansas State, FAU
Jerome Tang and Dusty May are on the list. Princeton's Mitch Henderson followed up his S16 year with a very good Ivy season (24-5, 12-2, #67 Kenpom) and looks like a good coach but in 2024 Michigan cannot hire an Ivy coach without some intervening years in the real world. The portal could eat him alive.
Let's stipulate that if UCLA's AD is Dave Brandon level, sure, yeah, Mick Cronin would be a good idea:
If he's not, Cronin has a 20 million dollar buyout. And even Mick Cronin would come in for a bunch of criticism for finishing his career at Cincinnati with seven bids and no S16 appearances after 2012.
The only way Michigan can get a coach with a Beilein level of success in the tourney is if May goes on another run. Therefore we should probably be looking at other metrics, which I'd want to do anyway. To me the more important thing about Beilein is that he took over a 7-20 WVU team and steadily improved them; his final three seasons saw Beilein finish #35, #16, and #33 in Kenpom. Beilein's final three conference records: 8-8, 11-5, 9-7. Trust the efficiency margin above all.
Names
Uh… ask again later. Sam Webb brought up Abdur-Rahim in a paywalled post with some interesting details about his potential candidacy. He links this piece from USF's site which may be of interest. On3 doesn't really have much except an assertion that the giant buyout guys are not going to be in play.
I'd take Medved, DeVries, Abdur-Rahim, and May versus the field, FWIW.
Etc.: Exit Yo-Yo.
March 21st, 2024 at 12:04 PM ^
Can't hire a guy named Tang. At best it is fishy.
March 21st, 2024 at 12:36 PM ^
March 21st, 2024 at 12:57 PM ^
Did someone mention Tang? On my office shelf (ok, they were on different shelves, but they came together for this very special moment). Yes, I have a 40 year old Tang robot coin bank in my home office.
No room up there for Space Food sticks?!?
G~D I loved those things as a wee lad! Fruit Stripe Gum too!
It's a kick in the glass!
What if he's related to Pootie? Does that change anything for you?
March 21st, 2024 at 12:09 PM ^
I am with Brian. I really like Niko Medved. I have watched them a couple of times throughout the year and his offense is very effiecient. They play good defense are fundamentally sound and it is watchable basketball unlike what we witnessed this past season. I would not be surprised if they take out Texas tonight.
I have them taking out Texas AND Tennessee.
Although now that I think about it that may not be good for Michigan?!
That prediction is NOT looking good right now.
11 points in the first half? Hard pass
March 21st, 2024 at 10:11 PM ^
Yup, he's gone from my Sweet 16 to my Do Not Want list.
So - who else are we looking at?! 🤔
March 21st, 2024 at 12:14 PM ^
I think any of the four names at the end of the piece seem reasonable. Nobody is a slam dunk but they all have their pros and should be given a couple of years to get their system in place. I’d also add the WSU coach who has coached at a high major school and found success by developing diamonds in the rough.
Edit: Kyle Smith is who I was blanking on
March 21st, 2024 at 12:28 PM ^
I enjoy that you stayed with the Jon Scheyer bit
March 21st, 2024 at 12:29 PM ^
I like Medved too. The ball movement on CSU is fun to watch and he's getting it done with weird guys. Sounds like a recipe that could work at Michigan.
Why is no one considering Chris Collins? For the right money and a jump to a much higher profile school he might be gettable. He has done great things recently for NU. And I can overlook the Duke thing.
Because he crawled on the floor like an idiot that one time.
Here's a sampling of responses to among the many many many (many) times Chris Collins has come up as a Howard replacement:
How is Chris Collins the closest thing to JB? I’m genuinely curious, because I don’t see it at all.
But perhaps Brian was pointing out that Collins would not leave NW for us (which I agree with), hence the “no”.
Absolutely fucking not Chris Collins. We're not Northwestern, we have substantially more recruiting ability. Michigan football has no problem getting valuable transfers in to pass admissions. There's plenty of kids who get decent enough grades. We just need a coach who's not too inept to spend tons of recruiting capital convincing players to transfer without checking if they, like, go to classes or not.
Am I taking crazy pills with this Chris Collins stuff?
15–17
13–19
8–23
9–15
15–16
You want a guy with a 5 year stretch of that on his resume?
And yes, why is it crazy to think NW has a different rule in regards to transfer credits? Again, we've seen a lot of articles saying this is specific to Michigan. Never seen anyone report it's the same at Northwestern. It's not about how smart the kid is.
I 100% would love Collins. Wanted him after JB left and a lot of Michigan fans were against him
I assume you're all caught up now.
March 22nd, 2024 at 12:40 PM ^
Nicely done Henson. I had to post that 5 year stretch. It opened my eyes for sure. Imagine going through that stretch and keeping the coach? No thanks.
March 21st, 2024 at 12:31 PM ^
Why is John Scheyer’s name here? How is he poachable?
Edit: Comment above says it’s a bit. Guess I missed that one.
It was a joke made by Brian to Sam during Mgoblog roundtable.
March 21st, 2024 at 12:42 PM ^
If we were a basketball school and willing to pay whatever buyout, I’d want Iowa State’s coach. But the sad truth is that Iowa State supports basketball more than Michigan does.
March 21st, 2024 at 12:46 PM ^
I'm on the Medved express after watching the CSU Virgina game. That was a beatdown that Michigan used to put on people in a way that people would not expect.
Virginia is awful…don’t put too much stock in that game.
They're bad offensively but they were still the #7 KenPom defense in the country. CSU put on an absolute offensive clinic against that top defense
How about looking at that performance as an exclamation point on the resume of what was already this blog's favored candidate?
Allowed?!
March 21st, 2024 at 12:52 PM ^
Hire Russian bear. Profit.
Russian bear hires YOU.
Niko Medved sounds like a Russian Mob Enforcer.
We need a lot of force.
Edited from mib to mob, duh.
Did you say "Mib"?!
March 22nd, 2024 at 12:14 AM ^
Thanks for the correction.
March 21st, 2024 at 12:58 PM ^
The rundown of games to watch should say FAU (May) vs Northwestern (Chris Collins), right?
/s
The WTKA MgoRountable this morning was interesting. Sam was dropping some serious hints that McDermott to Michigan is not such a pipe dream after all.
I wanted him the last coaching search…if his buyout is low, you definitely go get him
That seems like a some reallllly heavy wishcasting. Obviously Sam Webb hears stuff none of us do, but as you've rightly noted here and elsewhere our NIL and/or transfer quagmire is a huge roadblock that any half-decent coach is going to side-eye big time before even answering the phone call from us.
Yeah because Creighton is heavy in the NIL business
/s
I just did a search on McDermott to see if I could find out what his buyout actually is, but several articles later there's no mention of it. Sam said on the Roundtable that the buyout didn't escalate into sky-high territory, from which he infers it's possible to kick the tires and see if McDermott might be interested.
As I was reading I came across McDermott's quote that "there's no where I'd rather finish my career than Creighton." Not unusual for a newly extended coach to say something like that, of course, but it seems like he might really mean it. He's been there for 14 years and is 59 years old; Michigan's basketball program is in a crater and at least a 2-3 year rebuild away from being relevant again.
I think that I prefer a younger up and comer--DeVries is my first choice (longtime McDermott assistant before taking over at Drake)--and I'm warming to the idea of Medved or May.
If he knew Michigan wants him, he wouldn't have sign an extension. He just signed it recently so I doubt that it's realistic.
Love Sam, but even he will admit he's a company blue skies man. I always take that stuff with a grain of salt. He's obviously not making it up out of thin air, but he can be a bit...optimistic.
Why would John Scheyer leave Duke, his alma mater, after 2 seasons?
Because too many people think the Michigan job is a great job. Its not as of now. It can be though.
The Jon Scheyer thing was a bit from the roundtable. Regardless of all the chicken littling on this site the Michigan job is a top 15-20 job. Juwan made it seem worse than it is.
I respectfully disagree. Until we address the systemic issues, like NIL and transfers, then this job will continue to be a risk for new coaches. I'd say we are in the 20-40 range now.
Michigan has Big Ten $, are in The Club (won a National Title), has had recent success, and is enough of a brand to entice solid recruits. There are a lot of coaches who would be enticed by the Michigan job. The NIL will not match the blue bloods for sure, but there is enough out there to out pace the Iowa State's/Marquette's/Houston's/Creighton's of the world. The portal is an issue is you want to be portal guy but if you get a coach who is not portal reliant but rather uses it to patch a hole it shouldn't be a huge obstacle.
Every coach at this point needs to be a portal guy. Guys portal out - you can't replace them with only HS players unless you are bringing in classes of 6 annually which is not reasonable.
Michigan is going to be a problem for any coach here due to admissions fervor thus it falls in rank as a job whereas other places let their coach get anyone they want. Put Shannon and Love on this team and Juwan is still coaching.
I think you’re selling the job wayyyyyy short. There are similar programs(Purdue is one) who have similar restrictions and are flourishing. Juwan didn’t do a great job at the end, a better coach could have this thing humming very shortly.
This is from Dec 2023. It shows that Purdue is extremely ahead on the NIL game.
It has been well documented here that our bball NIL game is horribly lacking.
Since people here continue to bash admissions even after Shannon's legal troubles, are those more knowledgeable than I of the opinion there were no red flags in refusing to admit him, purely an academic decision?
I knew nothing of this accusations against him until The Athletic published a story about them this week. So I wondered about maybe being cautious in admissions was not such a bad idea?
Admissions has been dead to me since Xavier Worthy, so I'm just trying to get perspective from those who follow this more closely.
EDIT: Well, I guess in place of perspective I'll just have to accept downvotes...🤷♂️
thanks
March 22nd, 2024 at 12:51 PM ^
Almost all these players are welcome to join U of M. The issue is the transferring of credits. We dont want to lower our standards but the funny thing is if we did would anyone know? If Shannon and Love led us to a 8 seed birth this last season would the bball and school be in a better or worse position? Accept athletes credits and get them in. Nobody is going to know or care once the suit up. Even if you are against it if Shannon and Love were in a Michigan uniform today you wouldve never known.
^^^This
It's not admissions--UM (like Stanford and Northwestern and Notre Dame) will admit students who barely pass the NCAA Clearinghouse. We won't admit as high a percentage as UGA, Bama, Texas Tech, etc., but we'll do it.
As Rice mentions, it's the Colleges or departments that have decision-making on what other universities' credits will transfer to UM as. If they won't allow a roughly equivalent 200/300 level course at another university to count for that 200/300 level course at UM, then the student gets gen ed credit and has to take that same-ish class again if they want that major. Others more UM-knowledgeable can explain how this works for gen ed/core requirements.
So, if you're a transfer who likes UM 10% more, but would have to lose a year+ of credits, you may well choose Illinois or Miami or whomever so that you can stay on timeline to graduate. Or learn new stuff. Or not get frustrated by repeating stuff you know because of an arcane system.
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