Demise of Pac 12 now inevitable?
YES ANOTHER CONF REALIGNMENT POST... but not about hockey.
I am having trouble finding a big-name media outlet with the news (whether "big name" equates to "credible" is another debate), but the Internets have various reports from the past two days that the Pac 12 has been unable to negotiate a media contract. As a result, the Pac 12 is thinking about going to a "D2C" model -- "direct to consumer" -- meaning, producing all of its own games through Pac12Network, and then doing streaming sales (or sales to local TV stations etc.). The P12N already produces games for ESPN etc. so the assets already exist and in a way it's cost-saving. But it's also totally unpredictable what kind of revenue they'd get, and there's no guarantee of revenue so there goes the concept of a "budget."
So... Colorado and Arizona apparently are out the door. Collapse of the conference would seem imminent. Paul Bigears predicted the Pac12 will not exist in the 2026 season. (Although, I'd think the MWC or WAC would be smart to rebrand as the "Pac [N]" on the other side of this, once the conference name becomes a free agent too.) Big10 allegedly waiting for Pac12 implosion before grabbing moar assets, possibly the Ducks and Huskies.
Some links I could find on this (they look and read like normal online news sites but I can't vouch for their reliability): https://clutchpoints.com/big-12-colorado-college-football-expansion-conference-realignment, https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-football/is-pac-12-s-collapse-inevitable-big-ten-plans-expansion-top-suitors-include-oregon-stanford-utah-among-others, https://basicbluesnation.com/big-ten-waiting-for-pac-12-to-implode-for-conference-expansion/
Yes, but you dont have to buy it. Im just choosing not to care about it, pac-12 might die, might live who knows? Big ten might pick up a few more teams, it might not. I'm a fan of the University of Michigan and not much else really, yes I have season tickets to the football games but I also go to wrestling matches, soccer games and events like the Mott's Children Hospital 5k run/walk.
I just couldn't care less what disney and fox are showing on tv and paying the conferences, and im very happy with my life! I had way more fun going to a couple local high school games than I ever did watching colorado play oregon on TV.
Nike TV, next on the Swoosh is independent Oregon against (Any team outside the SEC) live from Eugene, Oregon. It could happen at this point, there's a lot of sports talent out there looking for a job right now. /s
Not sure why the /s tag, i unironically and wholeheartedly agree with this comment.
This would be good and bad for me…..I live in Portland, so on the one hand it would be great to have an opportunity to watch Michigan live against Oregon or Wash ( only 3 hour drive)
but on the other hand, 2 kids are at Oregon State ( it was just the best value for us as a decent in state engineering school)
I’ve always been fond of the PAC 12 for having similar standards as the BIG and would hate to see it die but it would be great to see my beloved team live
There's a guy named Paul Bigears? Is that his real name or his Mafia Goodfellas name?
Can verify. Legal name: Paul Bigears
Rumor has it when he works at the strip club he goes by the name "fine-bum" or something similar. But I can't link to a verifiable source.
But why did you post Pete's photo?
that’s a person? I though it was a dick pic
One of the most punchable faces on TV!!
that’s a person? I though it was a dick pic
Whether it is or not, I'm offended regardless. LOL
All these individual conferences and individual teams running around looking for revenue, wouldn't it make more sense for all the P5 leaders to meet and work together? Like 'hey, let's get together and create 4 super-conferences and negotiate together'. Seems like that makes more sense than say USC/UCLA having to fly their lacrosse team across the country on a Wednesday night to play in Happy Valley.
Just seems like this could all be coordinated better and avoid a lot of the uncertainty and everyone scrambling to not be the last one without a chair when the music stops.
The Alliance was a great success... work together, lulz.
Yes, that would make more sense for fans of the sport, but not for those chasing revenue. The whole reason the B1G is trying to grab specific schools is to increase the per-school conference payout. Lumping the whole P5 together would instantly dilute that revenue pool back to where it was pre-expansion, thus defeating the whole purpose of doing it in the first place.
Only if the tv networks had unlimited money to throw at them. They don't, and the next round of contracts will likely be smaller as the networks are looking to cut costs now. There is no bigger pie to be created and the sec/bigten are not trying to share smaller slices.
The Pac-12 is probably done for it looks like. With the B1G possibly snatching up 4 more schools (likely UW, Oregon, Stanford, and Cal). That will leave Utah, Colorado, Arizona, ASU, Wash St, and Oregon St. Utah, Colorado and the Arizona schools will go to the Big 12. Wash St and Oregon St probably have to settle with the Mountain West.
With the Big Ten at 20 in that model and the Big 12 at 16. The SEC you would have to imagine will aggressively pursue 4 more teams to get to 20. Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and one of probably Virgina, Va Tech, or UNC. Let's assume it is UNC.
With that, there still exists Pitt, Boston College, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Duke, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech. I don't think that has enough power to make it as a football conference.
I guess the ultimate answer is going to come from where the B1G and SEC settle on how many members they want as they will have the pick of the litter going forward. Will there be enough leftovers for a 3rd conference? I think expecting anymore than 3 conferences is unrealistic at this point.
Now I will go back and stand on my lawn and yell at the kids about how the Big 10 should have 10 teams and how I miss the SWC.
I really don't see any way that the B1G takes Cal. What is the motivation for that?
And Stanford maybe but only if ND comes with them.
You can make a better case for Oregon and maybe Wash.
But the B1G would be smarter to go after Miami, UNC, UVA or other I would think.
If they really want Stanford, I think they'd have to take Cal-Berkley along with them. If I was supreme leader of conference expansion, I would take Washington and Oregon and have them on rotation with USC and UCLA. That gets the B1G to 16. I would then want to take UVA and UNC. The last two spots would be up in the air I guess. Personally, I would like Colorado and Utah. Georgia Tech would be cool as a good academic institution and for the Atlanta area but they don't offer a whole lot athletically. Miami and Florida St?
UNC and UVA make sense culturally, but they add very little in terms of revenue or football. Oregon and UW are bigger, better brands while also being culturally in tune.
Here's a crazy thought:
The Big Ten should get to 20 with Oregon, Washington, Stanford and ND and go back to East/West divisions. The SEC should get to 20 with Clemson, Miami, FSU and Louisville and keep their non-geographically sensical E/W divisions.
Each division should play their championship game the weekend after Thanksgiving. Then, the B1G plays their conference championship game in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day. The SEC plays their championship game in the Sugar Bowl.
Whatever can be cobbled together to save the ACC...possibly realignment with the old Big East teams can play their championship game in the Orange Bowl. The Big 12 can play theirs in the Cotton Bowl.
Four at-large teams will play in the Fiesta and the Peach Bowl. Winners advance to the next round of the CFP.
Yes, this my dream scenario to try to return the bowl games to the way they were.
Agreed!!
B1G Classic
UIUC,IU,Iowa,UM,MSU,Minn,NW,OSU,PU, Wisky
B1G Plus
MD,ND,NU,PSU,RU,Stan,UCLA,UO,USC, UDub (let the newbies flyover!)
(#MGoBackToTheFuture!!)
Seth’s Week 13 B1G Conference Championship/Jamboree the week after THE GAME
12 team playoff
Done!!
Or maybe the B1G takes Washington, Oregon, Colorado, ASU, Stanford, Cal, ND, FSU, Miami, UNC, Duke, GT, UVA, Clemson, BC, Pitt, Become THE college sports conference. And THE conference of high-academic standards.
With 32 teams, they can wield power over TV and media networks in all major markets (except maybe Austin and others like Tuscaloosa, Oxford, Lexington, Knoxville, Baton Rouge, and both Columbias). Power over the SEC(?). Four 8-team divisions. Have their own playoffs. Have their own bowl games. Have their own recruiting rules.
Lots of good rivalries within that group and with the current members. Football and Basketball and others. Hockey, LaCrosse, the Olympic Sports.
I’m half joking. I am not sure it’s good for college football or that I’d like it. But why 20? Once regions are unvalued, take all the best left and make travel even easier. Other benefits?
Maybe Amtrak could become the official airline of your newly engorged B1G?
When you need a year plus to negotiate an agreement, you are probably failing. Also, given their whole Comcast mess (they were overpaid massively and have to give it back), I can't imagine any school having any school trusting the league office. I bet no one wants to be seen as the one destroying the conference, so they are waiting til they have no choice but to leave and the whole thing will collapse quickly. I would hate to be WSU or OSU at this point as they are going to be screwed.
Colorado - next to Nebraska, primetime, great travel destination.
utah- next to Colorado, park city, Alta, snowbird
Stanford- of course
cal- completes ownership of California and sea to shining sea.
Only a few schools would warrant an offer at this point for the big ten.
Oregon and Washington, Asu, Stanford, Utah and possibly colorado. Cal would fit the academic bill but why would we offer them any share when they don't do jack for athletics.. 50% at best for half of them.
Best Guess, Oregon/Washington and leave the rest with at best 50%, I don't think the bigten wants to move again until the acc schools are on the table. NC, Gatech, Miami, and then ND.. which might also bring a stanford offer for some reason...
Ideally, I would like to see Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Notre Dame. Done. Thats a huge haul with a massive inventory of stellar matchups. The GaTechs and Cals of the world just don't do it for me.
Yes however the big ten is really wanting a litle southern flavor as well imo which is why they will offer UNC if the ACC begins to implode. Oregon and Washington would make sense and don’t know that the big ten wants Colorado, Utah or even Cal for that matter. Stanford for sure but that seems like a deal that has to have either Cal, blah… . Or ND which adds to the revenue. I don’t think Cal adds any revenue to the Btn at all..
Would really like to scoop up a Florida St or Miami before anymore PAC 12 teams but if the situation presents itself then go for it.
It's more that the Pac-12 is being unrealistic in its expectations given that it cannot provide content in the 12/1:00 pm Eastern window that generates a huge percentage of the football Saturday revenue.
For USC and UCLA, that apparently meant it was worth losing all the tradition of playing western schools. So the remaining schools lose the value of home teams in southern California.
There's also the uncertainty of how the transition to treating college athletes as employees (an effort where California is taking the lead, but it could happen anywhere) will affect this equation.
During this transition phase, it seems that the SEC/Big Ten and maybe the Big 12 will grow in strange, non-geographical ways. At some point, and it likely happens when the player unions form and there's some sort of collective bargaining, a league of some sort will form. At which point common sense might return and the mega-conferences will break up into sizes that make more sense for every other sport.
College football outgrew its amateur standing. The sooner this transition finishes, the better it is for everyone.
One of the few things I've agreed with Finebaum on - "Paul Finebaum declares the Pac-12 is still 'in big trouble' - https://www.si.com/college/stanford/football/paul-finebaum-declares-the-pac-12-is-still-in-big-trouble
I just have absolutely no interest in Oregon or Washington, but it feels like this is going to happen sooner than later unfortunately