Farewell, 2021-22 [Patrick Barron]

Villanova 63, Michigan 55 Comment Count

Alex.Drain March 24th, 2022 at 10:54 PM

When you enter a game in which your team has a size advantage, especially at the center position, you expect to dominate at the rim. That was the thought entering Thursday night's game in San Antonio for Michigan against Villanova, where the Wolverines hoped to own the paint agains the hot shooting, five-out Wildcats. Michigan had no such advantage, as a team-wide malaise on finishing at the rim doomed the Wolverines despite a strong defensive performance against Villanova. The Wolverines hung tight for much of the contest, but couldn't buy a made layup or free throw when it mattered and in the process, fell 63-55 in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. With that, it's curtains on the 2021-22 Michigan Men's Basketball season. 

The game got off to a quick start before slowing down dramatically. There were 19 points scored between the two teams just over 5.5 minutes in, with each team trading early scores. Caleb Houstan made an early three that seemed to bode well for Michgian's shooting, but it did not hold up moving forward. Villanova pulled ahead to an 18-11 lead with 10:32 to go in the first and Juwan Howard called a timeout, seemingly furious at Brandon Johns Jr. for a defensive mistake. After that point, Michigan would lock Villanova down defensively, allowing only 13 points the remainder of the first half. Johns himself would turn it around defensively, playing some of the best defense of his career in the latter section of the first half. 

Michigan reclaimed the lead 22-20 with just under 4 minutes left in the half after a quick DeVante' Jones-led spurt, including a coast-to-coast layup and then a three pointer. Jay Wright called timeout and got his own 5-0 spurt from star Jermaine Samuels to restore the 'Nova lead, who converted an and-one that tacked Hunter Dickinson with a crucial second foul at the 3:42 remaining mark. The teams each made a couple buckets in the final two minutes and the half ended 31-28 Villanova. Michigan's scoring was evenly distributed between players in the first half, and the Wolverines shot 44% from the floor and 43% from three. The issue were the appalling 1/6 from the free throw line, as well as several missed layups. It felt like Michigan should have led at halftime, given the excellent defense they had played. 

[Patrick Barron]

The second half didn't represent a marked change from the slog of the first half. The Wolverines scored just three points in the first seven-and-a-half minutes of the second half (!), continuing to struggle at the rim and with free throws, in addition to a few sloppy turnovers. The balls clanged off the iron time and time again, as precious time dwindled off the clock. The defense held strong to keep the game competitive, but after Eric Dixon knocked down a three to make it 40-31 Villanova, Michigan was in a pinch.

Eli Brooks stepped up in that pinch, breaking Michigan's offense out of the funk temporarily, nailing a couple threes that cut the game to a six point edge (a Justin Moore three sandwiched in between). The score was 47-41 in favor of the Wildcats with little more than eight minutes remaining when a Collin Gillespie three came up a little short. The rebound kicked out and DeVante' Jones leapt for it, colliding with a Wildcat in what seemed like an obvious foul call. No whistle came, Villanova retained possession, and seconds later, it led to a Caleb Daniels and-one off a touch foul from Moussa Diabate. Daniels swished the free throw and it was 50-41 with 7:52 left. 

[Patrick Barron]

Villanova's passing over this period of the game was extremely impressive, it should be noted. They moved the ball very well, exploiting Michigan defenders who had gotten out of position, finding the open guy and leading to buckets. That allowed Villanova to convert some key makes to retain a mid-size lead, even as Michigan's offense began to come back on line. When Eli Brooks nailed a three to cut the lead back to six (54-48), there were under four minutes to go in the game.

Michigan needed to make a run, and they began to put a push together. Brooks was hammered on a moving screen, and Terrance Williams II was hacked on the ensuing Michigan possession. T-Will made both free throws and after a 'Nova miss from three, Williams pulled up on a heat-check look from distance that would've cut it to one. The three was well off the mark, and that's the closest Michigan would come to making a comeback. 

Jermaine Samuels toasted Hunter Dickinson for a layup and Dickinson would miss one on the other end. At that point, it was getting dark for Michigan and the dagger came only moments later. Collin Gillespie got an open look from beyond the arc and canned a three. 59-50 Villanova, 1:49 left to play. The final 109 seconds of Michigan's season slipped away like sand in an hourglass and the final score read 63-55 in favor of the Wildcats. Game over, season over. 

[Click the JUMP for takes]

[Patrick Barron]

Michigan lost this game because they shot 34.9% from two. They were consistently under 40% on dunks/layups throughout the contest, despite holding the size advantage on the interior. Villanova, to their credit, did an excellent job denying easy entrance passes to Dickinson in the post, and also contested a number of those looks in the paint. Still, Michigan's path to winning (barring an outlier hot shooting night) was never going to be through bombing it in from three. They needed to assert themselves at the rim and couldn't do so. Shooting 7/14 on free throws didn't help either. 

Defensively I think Michigan did what they wanted to do. They held a top 10 KenPom offensive team to 63 points on <40% from both the field and from three. Michigan, you could argue, got better looks than Villanova all game long, but an inability to consistently finish those chances haunted the Wolverines. In some ways it was a microcosm of this season from a coaching perspective: crafting a smart game plan and executing it to 80% success, but individual failures left Michigan unable to go beyond that and claim victory. 

The Wolverines will finish their season 19-15 and now await the offseason. Questions remain about what the roster will look like next season, and in time we will learn those answers. Caleb Houstan, Hunter Dickinson, and Moussa Diabate have NBA decisions to make, while veterans Eli Brooks and Brandon Johns Jr. are likely out the door due to age and eligibility factors. As Brooks leaves, he exits the winningest player in Michigan Basketball history and deserves a 'thank you' from the Michigan fanbase. DeVante' Jones still has a COVID season to use if he wanted to return. Of the eight Michigan players who saw the floor tonight, only Frankie Collins and Terrance Williams II are assumed to be back in Ann Arbor 100%. A new recruiting class will come through the doors of Crisler and transfer portal shopping will begin, as Juwan Howard tinkers with the roster. 

Thank you, Eli [Patrick Barron]

This was a flawed Michigan team, streaky shooters where either everything went right or everything went wrong through much of the season. They were on one night, off the next, consistently inconsistent and unable to stitch together more than one win in a row for a two month stretch. Even during their biggest wins, Michigan games were littered with frustrating mental errors, a year that seemed to deliver so little pleasure as they flopped short of lofty expectations, before being partially redeemed thanks to one weekend in Indianapolis. Tonight was the culmination of all of that. 

I was rather unenthused going into this NCAA Tournament because it never really felt like this Michigan team could make a run. Unlike in 2017, where Michigan had a low seed but were scorching hot and had an identity behind Derrick Walton Jr.'s leadership and Moe Wagner's burgeoning stardom, this 2022 team had a low seed but it felt like that rank was apt. There really wasn't anything on the resume to suggest they could make a Cinderella run. Too many flaws, too many mistakes, and lacking the kind of pivotal players that 2017 team had. But of course, due to the nature of the tournament, those two teams ended up in the same place, the Sweet 16.

The 2022 team won a coin flip against Colorado State and pulled off one upset thanks to the genius of Eli Brooks. That was a nice treat for a long season of frustration, but in the end, they are who we thought they were. Not able to live up to the hype, but the hype was unreasonable in hindsight and preseason rankings only mean so much in a sport where rosters are so constantly in flux between one-and-dones and the transfer portal. It's a winning season, it keeps the Sweet 16 streak alive, but it does, for a minute, blunt the progress of the Juwan Howard era from last season.

Questions will need to be answered next year, but that day will come in time. It wasn't the Final Four/national title contender we wanted, but in three seasons of Juwan, Michigan made (or was on pace to make) the tournament all three years, made the Sweet 16 in both years the tournament was held, and has a B1G regular season crown. Not too shabby first three seasons. Onward and upward. 

Comments

L'Carpetron Do…

March 25th, 2022 at 12:25 AM ^

I thought it was an extremely weird game. At half I said 'well, down 3 isn't bad considering they haven't played particularly well.' But in the second half I said 'well, Villanova isn't playing particularly well either.' 

I mean, make a damn shot, am I right? Nova is a good team but they weren't that great tonight. I was hoping Michigan would go down against a team that was just better than them. But, they pretty much beat themselves. And that's kind of the way it was all season with this team. 

It's nice they got to the Sweet 16 but in a way, I'm glad they can put this weird  2021 season to bed. Fix the problems and come back and kick everyone's ass next year. 

michengin87

March 25th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^

Villanova is one of the oldest teams in the tourney and played like it.  They never once came down the floor and struggled even when we gave them the full court press.  Got to give them credit for playing great D, handling the ball well and generally taking smart shots.  There's a reason they've gone deep in a lot of tourneys.

jmblue

March 24th, 2022 at 11:05 PM ^

Entering tonight, Villanova was 133rd in the country in 2-point defense, while Michigan was one of the best 2-point teams (53.5% on the season).  We shot 34.9% inside the arc today.  Nuts.

stephenrjking

March 24th, 2022 at 11:06 PM ^

Oh well. 

A vastly different team from the one we expected before the season began. But most of the mental adjustment to that change happened months ago, so what we wound up with was a team that was kinda like a rebuilding year team still making the Sweet Sixteen, which was cool. And they had their chances to win. 

But they didn't take them. 

There have been some fun Michigan basketball teams to watch in the past ten years, and this has not really been one of them. But there are some good highlights, and if they make a Sweet Sixteen in a down year, that says a lot of good things about the program.

The key is that next year demonstrates that this was a down year. 

jdraman

March 24th, 2022 at 11:11 PM ^

This game is just a microcosm of Michigan's season. Inconsistency in every facet of the game and from every player in the game. Unfortunate that the season had to end with such a clunker, but I am proud of the fight and resilience shown by the team and the coaches. Even for a team that underperformed, they still made the Sweet 16 and piled up a collection of really awesome, fun wins. Hopefully the players who come back will improve a ton in the offseason, and with some infusion of new talent through the portal and incoming freshman, they can compete to make the tournament again next year. 

Stringer Bell

March 24th, 2022 at 11:11 PM ^

Fitting end to this season.  Freshmen once again nowhere to be found.  Dickinson (despite an inefficient game) and Brooks carried the team, with Jones trying to gut it out despite being clearly banged up.  A great defensive performance wasted by a complete inability to make shots from 2 feet or 25 feet.  Whatever, hope Juwan recognizes the glaring flaws of this team and changes his recruiting strategy accordingly.

bronxblue

March 24th, 2022 at 11:14 PM ^

The only recruiting issue I could see Howard changing is going after a more conventional wing type, as otherwise guys like Houstan were expected to be elite shooters and Bufkin was a good shooter as well in HS that people assumed would be fine in college.  I mean, it's hard to predict how freshmen will do with the jump to college.

I do think we'll see some more forays into the transfer portal, but that is a college-wide phenomenon at this point.

michengin87

March 25th, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^

I didn't like the outcome, but I totally disagree with the comments that neither played particularly well.  Uncontested shots not falling or not making the extra pass on offense was generally not an issue.  Same for Villanova.  We were like crazy banshees on defense.  They would swing the ball around and most of the time we still had a guy in their face.  Same for Villanova's strategy down low.  They forced Dickinson to work from within a phone booth and get him off balance without fouling.

There was outstanding defense from both sides.  Villanova just handled it better than we did.

TrueBlue2003

March 25th, 2022 at 1:51 PM ^

"carrying" the team does not necessarily mean a "good" game.  But Eli did keep them from getting blown out.  Three of those makes were threes such that he scored 14 on 14 shots and combined with two assists his Ortg was 103.   The teams overall was 89. Villanova was 102.

So yes, Eli and Dickinson did not play particularly well but they "carried" the team that was otherwise weighing them down (Diabate had Ortg of 80, Houstan 76, Frankie 53 and Johns 10!) to give them a shot at the end.

bronxblue

March 24th, 2022 at 11:11 PM ^

Good write-up on an up-and-down season.

I don't think this season changes my outlook for Howard.  He took a a flawed team with inexperience at a lot of key spots and got them into the tourney and won 2 games against higher-seeded teams.  By comparison, Duke and Kentucky had even more "loaded" teams last year and totally missed the tournament.  We'll see how the offseason shakes out but this feels like a roster that will improve individually next year even if they have no real replacement for guys like Dickinson and Brooks.  Next year expectations should be a bit more reasonable and these young guys did get a fair bit of experience playing in important games so you hope they'll grow and improve from it.

The Deer Hunter

March 24th, 2022 at 11:21 PM ^

At the end of the day, Michigan deserved to be a Sweet 16 team that could beat anyone on any given night if on their game. Tonight wasn't that night. Final 4 teams can beat anyone every night...this just wasn't this team. Enjoyed the season and got us through winter with excitement thanks boys! Personally I will miss Eli the most. 

DetroitDan

March 24th, 2022 at 11:37 PM ^

In retrospect, I wonder how the season would have gone with Will Tschetter starting and Caleb Houstan redshirting.  The coaches obviously know more, having seen them both in practice, but Houstan was not ready for a starting role on a top team.  I guess we'll know a lot more at this time next year.

1145SoFo

March 25th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^

Maybe the sarcasm is missed by me regarding starting Will, not sure how to address that. But as far as redshirts go that's a thing of the past in CBB, and will never be necessary for a top 50 recruit.

Yea Houstan not being elite definitely held a good team back. But by seasons end he was a solid contributor with pretty solid defensive efforts. Enough to make minutes distribution between him and TWill a debate, not a huge red flag. Perhaps a question is if those starters minutes went to TWill, would he have made similar defensive improvements as Houstan and raised this teams ceiling? I doubt it, and it's hard to cut a 5stars minutes enough to drastically improve TWill's development. More likely it was just a question of optimizing game performance, not the teams ceiling.

Lancer

March 24th, 2022 at 11:41 PM ^

Loved the effort tonight, but just didn't have shots fall. Really need Frankie to improve on that end for next season. Decent year all things considered. 

StephenRKass

March 24th, 2022 at 11:48 PM ^

I have heard it said that teams going all the way to the NCAA championship game  manage to cause other teams to lose, more than being excellent for 6 straight games. Between Michigan's maddeningly inconsistency, a host of freshmen mistakes, subpar play from a few who have been at Michigan a long time and should have been better, and solid if not spectacular play from Villanova, Michigan deserved to lose. It seemed like we could not buy a three, a free throw, or a layup. Smh.

I happened to watch a piece covering the highlights of Michigan basketball during John Beilein's tenure, and one of the things that was noticeable was how well Michigan shot the ball from three. Glenn Robinson, Mo Wagner, Franz Wagner, Spike Albrecht (that one game,) Ignas Brazdeikis, Nik Stauskas, Duncan Robinson, and of course Trey Burke were all great from outside. And Mitch McGary was a monster inside that one tourney. This is not a knock at all on Juwan:  I am beyond thrilled Howard is Michigan's coach, and truly believe he will bring Michigan to the top.

However, I never was confident in enough guys on this year's team to regularly hit the three. There have been times in the past where it was abundantly obvious that Michigan players should go pro. I don't feel that way at all about Houstan, Diabate, or even Dickinson this year. I like all of them, but I'd bet money that none of them would go very high in the draft, especially after this year. 

WFNY_DP

March 25th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^

And I think the game plan really was not beneficial to him. The bigs were being asked--rightfully so, considering guys like Gillespe--to hedge EVERY screen. Hunter would, and then he just doesn't have the footspeed to recover from it. He's not a good enough trailing shot blocker to mitigate it.

SDCran

March 25th, 2022 at 1:19 PM ^

you may want to go look at the numbers for that list of guys that you listed.   Would you believe that even Duncan Robinson's first year, in B1G play, shot a worse % than Houstan's B1G numbers? 

 Of course Duncan is the best of that list, and I just pull that one stat because it is so strange.  Duncan shot 60% in non-B1G games that year!!!   But many (most?) of the rest of that list has stats that would surprise you. Franz Wagner - 32% career shooter. GR3 - 31%, Mo Wagner shot 16% as a FR./ 38% career, Trey Burke 35% as a FR/  37% overall.   And, of course, the comparison in everyone's head, Houstan shot 36% this year.

Stauskas was also insane, shooting 44% both seasons.  Then again, he was B1G POY.

 

trueblueintexas

March 24th, 2022 at 11:50 PM ^

Next years team will really be an unknown. I expect a lot of roster turnover. I think that will be a net positive at a few positions.
I hope Juwan and the staff are able to get some guards with size and athleticism. I also hope they can find some guys who can walk in and be leaders. This team sorely lacked enough leadership and it showed from start to finish this season. 
It promises to be an eventful off season. 

daveheal

March 24th, 2022 at 11:54 PM ^

It would be very Michigan to lose guys like Houstan and Diabate to the draft when they've had seriously meh seasons compared to expectations. I don't know much about the draft but I still find it baffling that some mock drafts have either of them in the first round still. They should obviously get paid if they want to, but we're gonna be hurting if Dickinson, Diabate and Houstan leave.

RAH

March 25th, 2022 at 1:03 AM ^

Diabate clearly has the size and athleticism to make it in the NBA but he hasn't really played much basketball. If I remember correctly he originally just played soccer and didn't start basketball until late. And that's how he plays.

He has (like Roberto) Mano de Piedra - as you would expect from a soccer player. He can sometimes play great defense but hasn't yet developed the necessary instincts and sometimes gets lost. As for offense, he has little ability to score unless he dunks. 

If people are still projecting him as a first rounder they believe clubs think he has the potential to be a high-quality player that they can develop faster/better in the G league.

yall know the school

March 25th, 2022 at 12:06 AM ^

Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate having “NBA decisions to make” is, perhaps, the worst take this blog has ever had. Both of these young men may very well have great careers at Michigan but neither would even be offered free agent contracts after certainly not being drafted this June.

mwolverine1

March 25th, 2022 at 7:18 AM ^

72 college underclassmen entered the draft last year (even after multiple opportunities to get feedback and withdraw like Hunter Dickinson did). There are only 60 draft slots. Over 200 players were looking to be drafted in total (including college seniors and internationals). Every year there are players who declare early and then don't get drafted. So yes, it is entirely possible both players (who have been mocked as draft picks at some point this year) enter the draft.