2021-22 villanova

1 hour and 52 minutes

The Sponsors

Thank you to Underground Printing for making this all possible. Rishi and Ryan have been our biggest supporters from the beginning. Check out their wide selection of officially licensed Michigan fan gear at their 3 store locations in Ann Arbor or learn about their custom apparel business at undergroundshirts.com.

And let’s not forget our associate sponsors: Peak Wealth Management, HomeSure Lending, Ann Arbor Elder Law, Michigan Law Grad, Human Element, The Phil Klein Insurance Group, SignalWire (use the code MUPPETS), Prentice 4M, where we recorded this, Team Fan Club, and introducing The View from the Cheap Seats podcast by the Sklars, who join us for the Hot Takes segments. Please go subscribe and like their podcast,and leave your hot takes about this game in the reviews.

1. Post Villanova

starts at 1:00

The shots didn’t go in. They were higher quality, and Nova was 30% from their contested threes, and that was the way Michigan could win this game but the shots didn’t go in. Also the shots didn’t go in. We run out of ways to say that.

3/24/2022 – Michigan 55, Villanova 63 – 19-15, 11-9 Big Ten, Season Over

This is not going to be a romantic post about the end of a season. Last year, yes, romance abounds. This year it's time to say good job making the best out of a bad situation and start speculating about the future. Because, well, sometimes the bear eats you:

Tonight was Michigan's worst 2-point field-goal percentage (34.9 percent) since Feb. 4, 2020 in a loss to Ohio State. Michigan played 70 games between the two performances.

— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) March 25, 2022

The other stat floating around out there was Michigan going 12/29 on dunks and layups. This kind of thing has happened before, but for it to happen against a team with no real shotblocking (and to a team that was 28th in shooting at the rim nationally) is boggling. Much like the early going of the Colorado State game, it felt like every weighted coin flip came out the wrong way. Michigan would put up a shot that rolled around on the rim and faded out; Villanova would do the same and the ball would eventually decide to go in.

There are other things you can point to, of course—a silly foul by Dickinson at the end of the first half that blunted momentum, an inexplicable no call when Devante' Jones got obliterated, a banked-in three—but while those are all factors the lingering bad taste in everyone's mouth will always be about a bunch of bunnies that did not go down.

At least this feels like a spiritually appropriate way to end the season? I included a Shot Quality graph in the preview that indicated Michigan got a ton of open threes and gave up relatively few, and here's a bookend for that:

Some of that is trying to check Johnny Davis with Eli Brooks because you don't have any 6'5" guys but some of that is just shrug-worthy. Michigan finished the season as a 7th percentile team defending pull-ups, and this was an improvement from that point midseason when they were 1st percentile. The whole damn season was getting good shots and losing to bad shots.

Maybe "bad" should get scare quotes in the previous sentence, because this season forces you to reconsider previous fatwas against mid-range jumpers and the role of athleticism in contesting shots. Since you can get a pull-up on just about every possession having an opposition floor that high is devastating, particularly when you're still in the deep 300s when it comes to forcing turnovers. On the other hand, that hideous performance on pull-ups is 0.9 PPP, ie, still not great. Michigan is getting teams to shoot from the right places; they just needed to have a legion of 6'5"-6'9" NBA wing types to maximize their results. Like, you know, last year.

In the end this was a team with significant flaws we glossed over because of the expectation Caleb Houstan would play like a top 10 overall prospect. This was wrong not only because Houstan played like a typical freshman but because it ignored that we weren't just replacing Isaiah Livers but also Franz Wagner and Chaundee Brown. Those guys got replaced by nothing resembling an NBA wing, and since the schedule was stacked back to front with productive wing types the defense went off a cliff.

Even so they improved over the course of the year, battled through the third-toughest schedule in America, made the tourney, made the Sweet 16, and set the table for next season, give or take a lot of knife-edge NBA decisions. Michigan got great shots and forced bad ones, further confirming that Juwan Howard is "that dude," as the children say. Hit the portal and acquire the most Chaundee-like thing you can find and further success beckons.

When you enter a game in which your team has a size advantage, especially at the center position, you expect to dominate at the rim. That was the thought entering Thursday night's game in San Antonio for Michigan against Villanova, where the Wolverines hoped to own the paint agains the hot shooting, five-out Wildcats. Michigan had no such advantage, as a team-wide malaise on finishing at the rim doomed the Wolverines despite a strong defensive performance against Villanova. The Wolverines hung tight for much of the contest, but couldn't buy a made layup or free throw when it mattered and in the process, fell 63-55 in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. With that, it's curtains on the 2021-22 Michigan Men's Basketball season. 

The game got off to a quick start before slowing down dramatically. There were 19 points scored between the two teams just over 5.5 minutes in, with each team trading early scores. Caleb Houstan made an early three that seemed to bode well for Michgian's shooting, but it did not hold up moving forward. Villanova pulled ahead to an 18-11 lead with 10:32 to go in the first and Juwan Howard called a timeout, seemingly furious at Brandon Johns Jr. for a defensive mistake. After that point, Michigan would lock Villanova down defensively, allowing only 13 points the remainder of the first half. Johns himself would turn it around defensively, playing some of the best defense of his career in the latter section of the first half. 

Michigan reclaimed the lead 22-20 with just under 4 minutes left in the half after a quick DeVante' Jones-led spurt, including a coast-to-coast layup and then a three pointer. Jay Wright called timeout and got his own 5-0 spurt from star Jermaine Samuels to restore the 'Nova lead, who converted an and-one that tacked Hunter Dickinson with a crucial second foul at the 3:42 remaining mark. The teams each made a couple buckets in the final two minutes and the half ended 31-28 Villanova. Michigan's scoring was evenly distributed between players in the first half, and the Wolverines shot 44% from the floor and 43% from three. The issue were the appalling 1/6 from the free throw line, as well as several missed layups. It felt like Michigan should have led at halftime, given the excellent defense they had played. 

[Patrick Barron]

The second half didn't represent a marked change from the slog of the first half. The Wolverines scored just three points in the first seven-and-a-half minutes of the second half (!), continuing to struggle at the rim and with free throws, in addition to a few sloppy turnovers. The balls clanged off the iron time and time again, as precious time dwindled off the clock. The defense held strong to keep the game competitive, but after Eric Dixon knocked down a three to make it 40-31 Villanova, Michigan was in a pinch.

Eli Brooks stepped up in that pinch, breaking Michigan's offense out of the funk temporarily, nailing a couple threes that cut the game to a six point edge (a Justin Moore three sandwiched in between). The score was 47-41 in favor of the Wildcats with little more than eight minutes remaining when a Collin Gillespie three came up a little short. The rebound kicked out and DeVante' Jones leapt for it, colliding with a Wildcat in what seemed like an obvious foul call. No whistle came, Villanova retained possession, and seconds later, it led to a Caleb Daniels and-one off a touch foul from Moussa Diabate. Daniels swished the free throw and it was 50-41 with 7:52 left. 

[Patrick Barron]

Villanova's passing over this period of the game was extremely impressive, it should be noted. They moved the ball very well, exploiting Michigan defenders who had gotten out of position, finding the open guy and leading to buckets. That allowed Villanova to convert some key makes to retain a mid-size lead, even as Michigan's offense began to come back on line. When Eli Brooks nailed a three to cut the lead back to six (54-48), there were under four minutes to go in the game.

Michigan needed to make a run, and they began to put a push together. Brooks was hammered on a moving screen, and Terrance Williams II was hacked on the ensuing Michigan possession. T-Will made both free throws and after a 'Nova miss from three, Williams pulled up on a heat-check look from distance that would've cut it to one. The three was well off the mark, and that's the closest Michigan would come to making a comeback. 

Jermaine Samuels toasted Hunter Dickinson for a layup and Dickinson would miss one on the other end. At that point, it was getting dark for Michigan and the dagger came only moments later. Collin Gillespie got an open look from beyond the arc and canned a three. 59-50 Villanova, 1:49 left to play. The final 109 seconds of Michigan's season slipped away like sand in an hourglass and the final score read 63-55 in favor of the Wildcats. Game over, season over. 

[Click the JUMP for takes]