RIP to da servers

A few weeks ago I mentioned that Michigan was set to have a Signing Day unlike any they'd experienced since Signing Day became a thing. There are usually a smattering of commits and maybe a flip or two. This year was looking to maybe double that level of activity even before Michigan got it in their head to pull the ol' Bobby Bowden out:

Because of the Signing of the Stars event on National Signing Day, I am expecting most (if not all) of Michigan's remaining pledges to be silently committed to the staff until February 3rd. If they don't, it's either because Michigan believes it's their only chance to publicly secure said kid or the kid just doesn't want to wait to make it public.

Obviously that's not 100% with three commits in the last day. In Uche and Mbem-Bosse's case they had officials scheduled so the commits eliminate those schools as threats unless the recruits take the Nate Johnson path.

We have a plan for Signing Day, but if Michigan gets ten commits all bets are off. Let's hope RAILGUN™lives up to its badass name. In lieu of flowers please donate to a fund to investigate Ole Miss recruiting.

Visit weekend fallout other than three commits

Absolutely loving my Michigan visit with @j__fuller1 @_DrewSingleton @RashanGary33 #GoBlue 〽️ pic.twitter.com/ZLf1xaC6JC

— Donald Stewart (@Donald_Stewart8) January 23, 2016

NJ WR Donald Stewart declared Michigan his leader. With Nate Johnson trending to Notre Dame and the rest of the WR class comprised of smaller guys, the 6'4" Stewart brings a unique skillset and should definitely be a take. He just visited his two finalists, so Stanford has little ammo left to catch up with.

Status quo with NJ DE Rashan Gary but we have a little section on him below for the clicks.

Ditto FL WR Eddie McDoom. He did not commit publicly; he did tell various people things were going really well after saying that he would commit if things went, you know, well.

AZ DE Connor Murphy hasn't talked to anyone yet about his visit. Michigan is generally regarded the favorite; his mom came up with him.

We project all of the above in the class in addition to Uche and Mbem-Bosse. On to guys who are still relatively open…

NJ CB Jordan Fuller doesn't say much, and when he does say stuff it's carefully calibrated to not give anything away. He did tell Scout's Brian Dohn that Don Brown showed him "really cool stuff" and that Michigan's defense looked "really fun to play," but for insight you have to go to second-hand stuff.

So let's do that. Dohn says he "knows the job Michigan did with Jabrill Peppers" and "loves" Michigan's academics but that ND and OSU were ahead pre-visit. He cancelled his trip to PSU and is thus down to three; Wiltfong doesn't think ND is much of a threat.

Tim Sullivan notes that rumbles from both ends of Fuller's recruitment seemed positive:

The Michigan staff is feeling good, and perhaps just as telling, we've heard rumblings that the Ohio State coaches are worried about the progress Michigan has made there.

And Rivals mid-Atlantic analyst Adam Friedman on Gary and Fuller:

Both are trending #Michigan's way https://t.co/VcYIYOmafx

— Adam Friedman (@RivalsFriedman) January 25, 2016

The Buckeyes have limited slots and just flipped a DB recruit from Louisville. They would likely still take Fuller. OSU 247 guy Alex Gleitman still thinks it's OSU but offers considerable uncertainty as he says that. Fuller is very much in play.

From the Bay to the Double A #OV #YeeGoBlue 〽️ pic.twitter.com/JyrhWuNTxY

— Devin Asiasi ⛅️ (@asibo_) January 23, 2016

Finally, reports from CA TE Devin Asiasi and CA DT Boss Tagaloa and people close to them were highly positive, as they usually are. ESPN's Erik McKinney caught up with them. Tagaloa:

"It was much more than I expected. This visit was by far one of the best I've taken. They are really high on my offer list right now and there's a good possibility I could be going there, too."

Asiasi had similarly positive but not definitive statements. UCLA, Washington, and USC are all in play for both. The duo took trips together to the former two and have USC set for next weekend; Asiasi cancelled a midweek visit to Alabama. Lorenz reports that Michigan believes this is one package deal with a high chance of coming to fruition. I believe it. When you're taking all your officials as a pair, that means something.

Whether that's good or bad is in the eye of the beholder. West Coast folk tend to think Asiasi is much more open to departing than Tagaloa. Scout's Greg Biggins:

"…with Boss, it would still be a surprise if he left the state but not as much with Devin, he's very open to everyone right now and fits that Michigan offense really well."

Wiltfong also thinks Tagaloa will stay in the west, with Asiasi an option.

If this is indeed a package Michigan is hoping that Asiasi is the guy driving the bus here, as Michigan is school on his list most likely to let him play tight end for the duration of his career. At this point all of the finalists seem like they're in play.

[After THE JUMP: nothing at all has changed with Rashan Gary but you are still going to click through to confirm this]

Gary non-panic of the week

NJ DE Rashan Gary was at Michigan this weekend with various Paramus folk, so there's not even a visit to get fussed about this time around. Scout's Brian Dohn re-reports tht everyone thinks it's Michigan, and so now we're one week closer to the payoff there. This is a good point:

I have to believe if Clemson or Alabama were huge factors, he would be on one of their campuses this weekend. Instead, he is at Michigan.

Just hold on for another week and a half. Gary's plan is to announce at 3 PM on ESPN.

Visitors elsewhere

MSU hosted a couple of prospects of interest. MI OL commit Michael Onwenu got an offer last week and visited; Michigan folk didn't expect much to happen there and it doesn't look like it did. Sullivan called him "fully solid" in the aftermath. People kept asking after this happened and Sullivan finally related his response to a text:

Did Michigan State change his mind?
"Lol no."

I think we can put that one to bed despite chatter from the MSU coaching staff that they're a threat. A threat to annoy Tim, maybe.

Unfortunately, per Josh Helmholdt Onwenu is headed to Oklahoma this weekend. That trip seems even less likely to cause a flip than the MSU one; any trip comes with an element of risk.

MI CB Lavert Hill, on the other hand,  may be genuinely in play. His MSU visit could have upended his recruitment after months of being the heaviest lean on Michigan's board. In the aftermath, eh…

Hill’s mother joined him on the trip.

“It seems like she liked it,” Hill said.

…it doesn't seem like he was Blown Away™. There's a lot of "good," which echoes his reaction to his "pretty good" Penn State official. Either he's a reserved gentleman or he's not finding much reason to divert from Ann Arbor.

As a bonus, he stopped by Michigan on the way home from East Lansing. For Hill to swing by Ann Arbor after 12 hours of Dantonio droning shows effort and want-to.

MO TE Chase Allen did schedule a couple of official visits, the last of which is happening right now at Iowa State. This weekend he took in Nebraska; Harbaugh goes in-home tomorrow. Allen named Michigan his leader and M doesn't often lose recruiting battles to either of those schools.

PA S Khaleke Hudson was at Penn State; he hasn't talked to anyone about that visit yet.

A couple of not good things

TX OL grad transer Jake Raulerson visited UCLA, and this doesn't sound great:

"Michigan and Stanford are the other two schools in the mix, but I don't think I can get into the MBA programs at either school," Raulerson said. "Stanford for obvious reasons, and then Michigan because it's a top tier program as well."

Whenever this comes up people familiar with Ross say that you have to have X years of real world experience before you can get an MBA at Michigan. Raulerson doesn't seem to have been told they will make an exception for him.

FL LB Jonathan Jones dropped Duke after weather prevented him from making a visit this weekend; with Uche and EMB in the boat it's not certain M would even take him if his recruitment started trending away from ND.

Per Brandon Justice, Michigan canceled a scheduled in-home today because of "bad weather." There is no bad weather unless you count the New Jersey blizzard that kept a number of recruits on campus past their scheduled departure date—Michigan would rather spend their time on those guys than Jones.

Defensive tackle gets even more crootin

FL DT Keyshon Camp took two visits to Ann Arbor this fall, the second an unffocial for the Ohio State game. Normally that kind of pattern presages a commitment, but Camp left that weekend and quickly reaffirmed his commitment to USC.

End of recruitment until Saturday, when Camp decommitted and said he'd announce on Signing Day. Could Michigan re-emerge here? Uh. Webb reports that Michigan isn't planning to go after him again, as does Lorenz. However, Tim Sullivan talked to Camp himself and reports that his top three is Michigan, Pitt, and Mizzou. OSU's absence is a surprise since their offer seemed to trigger his decommit. More likely it's USC's DL coach moving to Mizzou; he plans an official there this weekend.

Meanwhile in crootin, TX DT Jordan Elliott took that Texas visit. He's not talking to anyone until Signing Day; the Texas 247 mods got some generic "had a good time" kind of stuff that doesn't sound as grim as it might have; they still project a flip.

Michigan is sending coaches for an in-home today that will probably be death or glory for Michigan's chances. Doesn't look good for him but wait for the wind to change.

Finally, TX DT Chris Daniels decommitted from Oklahoma. Michigan doesn't look like they're getting involved again, but Texas is a main contenter. Texas, the school that offered ONE DAY before Daniels committed in the first place. Have some dang pride, man.

Don Brown doing work

New DC Don Brown has never been at a school with the recruiting pull of Michigan, so how he'd do on the trail was a question mark. Early returns are good, as it was Brown who prioritized both GA LB Elysee Mbem-Bosse and FL DE Joshua Uche upon his arrival. Brown didn't just manage to get commits from both guys, he aborted their recruitments. Both had officials set up for next week they no longer needed after meeting Rogue Cop Gone Good. Mbem-Bosse was highly complimentary in the aftermath of his commit. Lorenz:

"Coach Brown is an amazing man," he said. "We hit it off right away. It's actually really hard to describe him, but he's just an amazing guy. We talked a lot about the type of defense he likes to run, and what I liked about him most is that he spoke factually and not in any other way."

Both guys are three stars, but there's a big difference between three stars you're trying to yoink from mid-level Power 5 schools and ones you are pirating away from Auburn, Florida, and Oklahoma.

Additional Spanellis scouting

As often happens in the wake of a commitment, there was  good chunk of additional scouting on VA OL commit Stephen Spanellis released after he flipped. Spanellis himself related some interesting stuff about how his recruitment developed to the Baltimore Sun:

“Coach Drevno told me one of his concerns about my film last year was he thought I fell down too much, my balance wasn’t good. He said looking at my film this year, he was really impressed about how I stayed on my feet when I went up to the second level or if I went out on screen passes. I think just in general, I looked like I had improved my strength, my balance, pretty much everything I could have improved in a year.”

Biff Poggi, Gilman's head coach (and Henry's father):

"He started training differently. We put in a CrossFit program. He got more agile, lost a little weight, although he's still a gigantic monster, and it really helped his feet. When we went up to Paramus and played [defensive tackle] Rashan Gary, the No. 1 player in the country, sometimes he played against Devery, sometimes Steve and Steve did a nice job on him."

A Gilman assistant told Wilftong that Spanellis is "huge" at 6'5", 330 and the strongest kid on their team, with an "unbelievable work ethic."

Spanellis told the Sun that he was recruited as an interior lineman, so he is not a one for one replacement for Swenson. It seems likely that Spanellis's commitment will push WI OL Ben Bredeson out to tackle, where he promises to be a Mason Cole type of player.

A little more Uche

Brandon Brown talks to Rivals analyst Rob Cassidy about FL DE Josh Uche:

“His game isn’t based on power,” Cassidy said of Uche. “He uses that first step off of the edge and he’s damn good at it. He’s as quick as they come really. Michigan will put some weight on him and he’s got a chance to be really special. I like his upside a lot.”

Cassidy thinks that Uche fits Brown's scheme "perfectly," which is probably why Brown's arrival corresponded with a laser focus on him. Clint Brewster on Uche, meanwhile:

He’s got the ability to dip around offensive tackles and beat them to the quarterback. Gets his shoulders turned when he rounds corner as pass rusher, gaining the leverage advantage. ... Uche isn’t the biggest or the longest defensive end but he’s got outstanding agility and the strength of a much bigger prospect.

That dip-and-turn jumps off his film. If he can do that at 270 he's going to be a monster.

Getting to 270 is the issue. One thing that's really important for Uche is his frame. He's listed at 6'1" or 6'2" at recruiting sites, which would likely mean he's a linebacker. He appears to be at least 6'2" and maybe bit bigger than that when he's lined up next to Mbem-Bosse (listed at 6'2", probably an inch or two shorter) and Harbaugh (6'3").

He really really looks like a linebacker right now but Frank Clark came in at 210 pounds too.

This instant's best guess

Since last time, CA CB David Long, FL LB Joshua Uche, GA LB Elysee Mbem-Bosse, NJ DT Michael Dwumfour and MD OL Stephen Spanellis committed. All but Uche were on the list.

FL CB Antwaine Richardson decommitted unexpectedly. While TN WR Nate Johnson is still technically committed we are considering him a recruit with M in his final 3. We are also removing TX DT Jordan Elliott from the expected-to-sign list.

We still expect two more decommits and M might grayshirt a guy (who, again, knows this) if everything goes perfectly.

Therefore Michigan has 20 or 21 commits we expect to sign. With 30 the target we'll list 10 guys even if 8 or 9 is a more likely number. Since neither Uche or Mbem-Bosse were high-probability recruits before they dropped Sunday night a 30-man class now looks more likely.

1. FL WR Eddie McDoom. Believe he is a silent commit. No further visits scheduled.
2. NJ WR Donald Stewart. Michigan leader after back to back visits to finalists.
3. MO TE Chase Allen. Would be a massive upset if Nebraska or ISU could steal him.
4. MI K Quinn Nordin. Nordin did not take a scheduled official to Penn State; unless USC pulls a rabbit out of its hat he should be signing up.
5. NJ DE Rashan Gary. See above. It's happening dot gif.
6. PA S Khaleke Hudson. Scattered reports of PSU positivity but they had a silent mountain to climb.
7. AZ DE Connor Murphy. Vibe continues to improve. Jason Jewell, Scout's SW analyst, thinks it's Michigan. Bama gets the last visit.
8. FL WR Pie Young. Has Bama and USC visits over the next week. Would either school take him? Seems doubtful.
9. MI CB Lavert Hill. Impromptu post-MSU unofficial should soothe some worries.
10. NJ CB Jordan Fuller. Speculative pick. OSU main threat.

It would be something between a surprise and a shock if any of the top 7 go elsewhere.

I don't actually think Michigan will take all three guys listed from 8-10, but Fuller feels more likely to join the class than Asiasi, Tagaloa, Elliott, Johnson, or various other guys on the hook so there he is.

With the decommitment of Richardson, Young probably still has a spot in the class even if Stewart and McDoom are in. He can play corner; Michigan wants 3 because next year all five starters in the secondary are likely headed for the NFL. If Michigan does feel good about both Hill and Fuller then maybe Young gets pushed out in favor of a large angry person.

2017 stuff

As per usual just some bullets until Signing Day.

• Wisconsin offered WI OL Tyler Beach. Michigan and Wisconsin appear to be a tentative top two; he's planning a visit to Ann Arbor.
• Michigan offered CA TE Josh Falo.
• They also offered GA QB Jelani Woods, a 6'7" guy currently listed as a pro style QB. He'll probably end up committing along with McCaffrey, get everyone excited with his hudl video, and then decommit to break our hearts no I'm still not over Vic Viramontes leave me alone.
• MI CB Ambry Thomas gave 247's Notre Dame site a top five that did not include Michigan but did include Cincinnati and Wisconsin. We'll see if that's a one-off blip or not, as Thomas has been pretty positive about Michigan the past couple months. He tweeted something out about the Swenson business, so Michigan might have some explaining to do.

Etc.: A third De La Salle player came up with Tagaloa and Asiasi: long snapper Biago Capp. Could be a guy to watch out for if he wants to be a PWO. Ditto OH P Will Hart, who Brice Marich reports visited this weekend, and MI ATH Tru Wilson, who MGoFish reports got a PWO offer from M.

GA OL EJ Price directly stated his pockets were full of cash on an Auburn official. Nothing much appears to be happening with the Michigan visit to him. Allen Trieu reports that FL TE Nick Eubanks is reaching out to Michigan; coaches will visit.