Thoughts on 2023-24 basketball team/roster
With the announcement of Barnes entering the portal and the unknowns of who is coming and going, I’ll just do this off of hope and projections. Let’s assume Jett, Kobe and Hunter all stay. Here are my thoughts on starters and roster management.
Starters: Hunter, Reed, Jett, Kobe, Dug
Bench: Transfer 4, Khayat, Jace, T Will, Cheddar, Glenn, Washington III, Kante.
Still far too many 3/4 types here. Ideally one of those would transfer and we can get another guard. That’s the bad thing about Kobe and Jett entertaining the NBA, we already are paper thin at the guard spots anyway. With 8-9 man rotation, one to two of Jace, T Will, Cheddar and Glenn aren’t playing as much. They are all redundant of one another. Thoughts?
Thoughts? Hmmm pain, not good! However if they can win half of the close games next year, it will be a lot different.
Meant more of thoughts on the roster/playing time for next year with what we know now.
March 20th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
We know way too little right now to have a productive conversation. We have to make assumptions about the status of Jett, Buffkin and Dickensen. Their decisions will impact which players get recruited out of high school as well as the transfer portal. We also don't know the status of Baker or Lewellyn.
Needs moar swim lanes
I think that Bufkin's decision will be the key point of the offseason. He could be the best player on the team next year. And, given Michigan's roster, being a guard makes him particularly valuable.
Sam Webb has wondered aloud whether Dickinson will want to play on another super-young team. That makes a lot of sense to me and is more reason to peg Bufkin's return as vital.
Beyond that, Michigan has to find a four (as many have noted) and, if Jett leaves, maybe even a three. The forwards don't inspire confidence.
That’s something I hadn’t thought about, that Hunter’s decision could be linked to who comes back. I would think that would also include T Will, who a lot of people don’t want back. The teams trajectory next year are really tied to Hunter, Kobe and any effective transfers we get. I would also say Khayat will start if Jett leaves.
I don’t think people have considered that Dickinson could hit the portal too.
March 20th, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
I'd say Jett's decision is the key decision. If he comes back, I'm guessing Kobe (for sure to the NBA) and maybe others (to the portal) will happen. If Jett goes to the NBA, I think there is a much better chance you get Kobe and Hunter to stay.
I don't see a scenario where Jett & Kobe are both back.
I'd be more than happy with a starting 5 of Dug, Kobe, Baker, ???, Hunter
??? could be Reed or a portal transfer.
March 21st, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
Jett is the classic example of a talent who needs maturity. One more year of his dad asserting some tough love and really challenging him would help him, as opposed to him flying commercial to play in front of 400 fans in Tulsa. The key is dad has to tell him that his focus, effort and defense is not nearly good enough yet to survive in the NBA.
Llewellyn too, right?
there just has to be a dozen+ guys in the upcoming portal that would be a better fit at that position.
Accurate. But the tricky part is convincing a guard to come in to play back up point. You don't want another Frankie situation. This is why we need to start recruiting more PGs and lay off the one and done transfers.
March 19th, 2023 at 10:22 PM ^
My opinion, he didn't look strong enough to withstand big ten play
Mike Smith and Devonte Jones both struggled a lot to start the year before turning into really nice players down the stretch. It's reasonable to assume Llewelyn would have done the same. An experienced backup guard who can play the 1 or 2 is something our team will greatly benefit from next year. However, coming off an ACL tear will be a challenge.
My assumption is that if all those guys come back - and I'd be surprised if they all did - you'd want a 4 who could stretch the court more as your starter. Reed has shown immense promise as a defender but he's still not much of an offensive threat and this team needs someone who can pull defenders away from the rim. B.J. Mack would be a downgrade defensively from Reed (though probably not a huge one from the TWill/TSchetter starters we saw this year) but he's a competent outside shooter and (I think) would be a nice complement for when they pull Dickinson off the court and you put Reed inside.
I'm interested if Baker comes back - he played well toward the end of the year and I think he's a plus shooter who was perfectly competently defensively against most of the guys he saw. He's not a starter on a good team but he'd give them another off-guard/SF sized human. Also, this list seems to ignore Llewellyn, who presumably is coming back and you hope has recovered reasonably well from his injury.
I'd be sort of surprised if they had Reed, Williams, Tschetter, Jace AND random transfer at the 4 all on the roster next year. That's too many bodies for too few minutes, especially since you don't have a ton of positional flexibility outside of Reed. My guess is at least one of the four 4s in that group transfer and it's likely not going to be the coach's kid or the promising true freshman.
Next year is going to be weird and probably somewhat disjointed especially early on. The good thing is that it'll likely be the first time under Howard that he gets a second year out of his PG and that will likely pay some dividends. But depending on how the roster shakes out this could be anything from a preseason top-3-in-the-B1G team to one needing a stop by Dayton before making the dance.
March 19th, 2023 at 10:01 PM ^
I think your last paragraph hits on something really critical/concerning. I don't disagree that next year could be weird or disjointed but Coach Howard can't afford it to be. Next year feels like a do or die year for him & the program.
March 19th, 2023 at 10:36 PM ^
I got yelled at for saying this various other places but next year is probably going to look not unlike the 2016/2017 season under Beilein where you've got some janky pieces (Caris for a dozen games being the one weird outlier) in guys like Irvin and Walton who start figuring it out, MAAR and Robinson coming along and growing into their roles, and you fit-and-spurt your way into a tourney bid. That Big 10 was better than this one will likely be next season - Purdue, IU, and MSU were top-10 teams that year - but that's sort of the trajectory I expect if, say, 1 of those 3 big guys comes back and they're putting transfers and the backups around them.
The only outlier, and you can cringe if you want, is if they get "lucky" in close games. Depending on who returns you might have a seasoned backcourt with Dug and Kobe along with Llewellyn and YoYo, plus maybe you get back Dickinson and now you've got some depth wherein you aren't asking your two guards to play 35+ minutes a game and they aren't burned out to end games and make a couple of plays. The team might still be a hot mess at times but instead of going 3-13 or whatever in 2-score games they go 7-9 or 8-8 and they make the tourney somewhat comfortably despite not being improved meaningfully.
An unpopular opinion forthcoming. I don’t think Bufkin was going to play again this year and I think he and Jett are both going into the draft.
That being said, in the debacle that was yesterday, I saw a major silver lining. Dug McDaniel has serious game and is the point guard this program has been searching for. Point guard is the most important position in college basketball and I kind of think Michigan is building around him now.
Next year, McDaniel, Reed and Dickinson could be formidable. Baker would be a nice piece too. If Lew is back that is a little depth and point. Kante looks far more advance in his development than I expected, and GW 3 is a high level recruit. I’m not convinced yet, but I’m also not panicked. Have to land a stretch 4 in the portal.
March 19th, 2023 at 10:03 PM ^
Agreed with all of this. I'm not calling Kobe a liar AND it wouldn't shock me at all if his "injury" wasn't as bad as they made it sound.
I don’t think basketball is really a sport you shut down for risk of injury like you would football.
Playing in games is not that different than scrimmages in practice right? These kids are basically always playing to keep their game up.
March 20th, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^
If you are going to enter the draft there is no reason to travel with a team you are leaving to play in the NIT. Individual work would be just as valuable. Granted, injuries don't happen as often in basketball as they do in football but they do happen.
March 19th, 2023 at 10:10 PM ^
I really like Dug, and I hope he continues to improve, but his size is always going to be a liability, both on offense and defense. Man, I feel like we haven't had a good and regular-sized legitimate point guard since Walton.
Dug is tiny but I think his speed and athleticism partly make up for it. He's more than just a shrunken point guard. He can get into a gap and release his shot really quickly. I'd expect more of those to fall as he gets stronger.
why are all these roster discussions assuming all three of those guys are staying? The WTKA roundtable on Thursday started off the same assumption.
Is there news I don't know about? Because if I had to bet I'd predict 1 of the 3 come back, and that would be Hunter.
I’d take that bet. My guess is two come back - HD and one of Kobe or Jett. Although, reading this thread - maybe HD is a bit more of a wild card than i would have thought…
March 19th, 2023 at 10:58 PM ^
I agree that assuming all are back is a big assumption. Just doesn't seem likely. One possibility that never comes up is that Dickinson could transfer. It's not necessarily choosing between Europe/G League and Michigan. Transfer is a third option. He could play two more years. I bet Kentucky would love to have him replace Oscar and lord knows Big Blue Nation could find him some NIL.
Yea I think it’s way more likely that all 3 are gone than all 3 return. It’s also more likely 2 of the 3 go than 2 return.
Going to be tough when a third of your scholarships are taken up by Williams, Cheddar, Jace and potentially Baker. Can't have that many third year + super low ceiling players that have no speed and can't handle the ball.
March 19th, 2023 at 11:04 PM ^
Since you bring up scholarships, how do people feel about Brian's take that scholarships don't matter in the NIL era? Are there actual examples of recruited players or transfers who had previously been on scholarships becoming walk ons funded by NIL? I guess it makes sense in theory but are there examples of it actually happening?
March 19th, 2023 at 11:17 PM ^
It could work for incoming players from high school, taking NIL instead of a scholarship. But it would be a tough sell ego-wise to have a kid already on scholarship drop off of scholarship to be an NIL "walk on".
It would take a very mature business-savvy kid to pull it off, a kid who could put ego aside and see the advantage of playing with a better roster. Kind of like Tom Brady taking less pay than he could get to be surrounded by a better roster.
And it's not even like the NIL $ has to be equal to what a scholarship is worth. It could be more, even much more, in return for freeing up a scholarship.
I'm sure we will see it happen in the not too distant future.
March 20th, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^
I think he's wrong. The money still has to come from somewhere and get paid to "someone." It all matters. Not all NIL deals are equal or work the same way. A backloaded deal would matter a LOT.
March 20th, 2023 at 12:21 AM ^
Exactly. Not sure why Juwan wants Baker bsck unless he knows some of those dudes are leaving.
Add Glenn and the 2 incoming freshman into those roster spots that likely aren’t going to contribute much next year. YoYo may also not be ready to do much without a massive leap forward in the off season.
Prayers...
If all three were to come back we will have a top 10 team. There would be depth at guard by the addition of GW and improved play at the 4 no matter who gets the job including TWill.
However that seems to be the least likely scenario. Most likely Kobe and Jett are gone. Backcourt might then be Dug - Llewylln with GW backing up. Center would be HD. Forwards: Joey (if the NCAA does the right thing, so probably no Joey). The level of the team will then depend on who we get for a PF.
The offseason will be interesting for sure. Hopefully HD, Kobe and Jett make their decisions known early so the staff can put a roster together.
March 19th, 2023 at 10:28 PM ^
I don’t see Kobe AND Jett gone. I see one or the other. I don’t see why the decisions couldn’t come early honestly. Both Kobe and Jett know pretty much where they are projected, so it’s either they want to make that leap or stay. With Diabate, it was kind of an unknown on him to an extent. I think Howard needs to sit down with everyone quickly and tell them what their place is on the roster and then say give me an answer on your future and set a date for that. If they know their place on the team and the others know their pro outlook, why would it take long to decide. This is an off-season Howard really can’t sit around and wait until June to add kids.
March 19th, 2023 at 10:07 PM ^
I don't understand how the portal works. How hard would it be to go to any of the kids playing at smaller programs (Fairleigh Dickinson, Florida Atlantic, etc.) and say, "wanna start in the Big Ten?"
Is it all about admissions? Is it tampering? (If the latter, surely there's ways of letting them know we're looking for good players).
Seems like it should be incredibly easy to find a good player at a smaller program and offer him the visibility (and the NIL) he would never be able to get there.
March 19th, 2023 at 10:27 PM ^
The roster will take a hit if Hunter and/or Bufkin leave. Kobe should look at the pro career of former MSU guard Marcus Taylor who went pro 20 years ago against Izzo’s advice.
I do not believe Kobe or Jett have demonstrated a consistent level of play for an entire season. if all three core players leave, Dug and Reed could hit the portal.
I believe Jett will go to the NBA and Hunter may decide to play somewhere else his final year. Things look very uneasy right now for next season.
I can't imagine Kobe is going to reference a so-so player (Marcus Taylor) from that many years ago. He's way more likely to think of Jordan Poole. If he's smart he'll have a large survey of players with his profile from the last few years.
March 19th, 2023 at 10:30 PM ^
Due to admissions and how credits transfer, you need to be coming off of your true freshman year or be a graduate transfer, lest you have a bunch of credits not transfer. Pretty hard to dangle THAT carrot to a mid-major guy.
March 19th, 2023 at 11:21 PM ^
Since almost all of the really good players leave early, do they actually care about how many credits toward graduation they accumulate?
We’re not talking about really good players here—we are talking about a mid-major guy transferring in.
March 19th, 2023 at 10:27 PM ^
I don’t think you can start Reed and Hunter together. The offense will again count on Hunter to get a lot of touches in the post, and while the combo has worked situationally, starting them both is tough. When Hunter gets the ball down low, Reed isn’t going to spot up. The defense can basically ignore him. He also has bad hands, so catching quick passes down low isn’t his thing. He’s better as a 5 so he can crash the boards. His offense is plain bad. He makes bad pivots—he will pivot into nowhere or into trouble, holds the ball too low, and he himself will get too low. That said, he is a true freshman and should improve. He just needs to reliably catch and finish. They need a stretchy 4 in the worst way.
Williams…oof. I know some guys are more stoic than others, but he looks like he doesn’t care. Got really old watching him dribble into trouble with no plan or doing that low-percentage fadeaway. When he was a true frosh, I thought he was going to be a hustling, annoying Jae’Sean Tate type of dude. Didn’t happen.
March 19th, 2023 at 11:44 PM ^
Unfortunately, he reminds me a lot of brandon johns jr. and kam chatman, loads of physical talent and potential that might someday "click" but very little basketball IQ and just looks lost during stretches of the game. Chatman found it eventually at Detroit Mercy, but he just looked overwhelmed at Michigan with tiny flashes of "why cant you do this more often kam?"
Those (Reed to Johns, Reed to Chatman) are two remarkable comparisons. I don't mean that in a good way.
Reed has a long way to go but he was more impactful this year than Johns and (especially) Chatman were at that point in their Michigan careers.
March 19th, 2023 at 11:51 PM ^
Fully agree with this, Cannot start Reed alongside Hunter without a significant improvement from Reed on the offensive end, and even then it's a questionable fit. Hunter cannot be used as a pure 5-out center. Yes, he hits the 3 very efficiently, but it's still rather low volume and he needs extremely clean looks to get shots up. Any transfer 4 will need to be a perimeter-oriented forward with size, good 3pt shooting numbers, and defensive capabilities. That hypothetical player starts next to Hunter, and Reed gets all the backup 5 and some backup 4 minutes.
During one of our NIT games, the announcer mentioned that Williams had been battling a nagging injury all year. I had not heard that before, and if true, would be a logical reason why his play did not improve from prior years. No idea what the injury was, but probably one which limited his quickness, jumping or other skill that made him look a step slow. I suspect he was still in the lineup because he was far better than the other options (likely by simply knowing where he needed to be on the court, or which man he was covering).
March 19th, 2023 at 10:37 PM ^
Jordan, I can't see starting Hunter and Reed. Athletic teams would kill that lineup. Neither Hunter nor Tarris possess the requisite foot speed to defend on the perimeter. That lineup worked (some) because teams didn't see it coming. Good coaches, knowing that's a primary lineup, would prepare to exploit one of those two guys.
The only only hope is that either Glenn is ready to be the 4, or T Will's game elevates in consistency. Further, if Hunter does come back, the team will have as many centers as it does guards. How much sense does that make? Hey Coach Howard, the 1980's called, they want their roster construction philosophy back. In 2 recruiting classes, Coach Howard has recruited just 2 guards. But, he did recruit 3 offensively challenged 4/5's.
If Kobe doesn't come back, we have to pray to the portal gods to find and adequate replacement starter. And, considering Coach Howard's recent results with the portal (Jones, Llewellyn, Baker) I wouldn't count on coach assessing a good team fit. Even if Kobe comes back, there is still a need for a 4th guard. Do we really want to see another season of Llewellyn? He was bad enough when healthy, so how good will he be getting back into flow of things.
I guess this is what you get when you hire a guy who hasn't been in the college game in 25 years.
"Neither Hunter nor Tarris possess the requisite foot speed to defend on the perimeter."
Another post, another remarkable comparison. You're lumping those two guys in the same category? Did you see any lateral quickness out of Reed this year? Any?
And, oh mercy does your user name regularly check out. :)
March 19th, 2023 at 10:43 PM ^
I’ll put $ on we get 3-4 portal guys !