2019 discussion
Yup, I’m that guy that likes to look ahead. Ron probably wouldn’t approve of this thread. Oh well. Anyway, with some young players starting to play, it got me thinking a little about next year. Quick thoughts for each position group. (Yes, a lot of hypotheticals since we don’t know who will enter draft)
QBs-Feeling very positive. Not convinced Shea will leave early, but even if he does, a RS sophomore version of McCaffrey should be ready to lead this team.
RBs- Losing Higdon is a blow, but we will have a diverse stable of backs with Evans, Charbonnet, Turner, Wilson. Plus TD sledgehammer Mason.
WRs/TEs- Loaded. Likely the strength of the team.
OL- Hopefully the group that takes the biggest step forward. Second year of Warriner, only losing JBB who is basically a placeholder until Hudson is ready anyway.
DL- Paye and Hutchinson won’t be Gary and Winovich, but they won’t be bad either. Should be strong inside with Kemp, Solomon, Dwumfour.
LBs- Bush is likely gone but we will return Ross and Gill. Question mark is whether Khaleke returns. Regardless, Don Brown is going to find some dudes, and we have recruited well at this position.
Secondary: Love the safety group with Metellus, Daxton, Hawkins, Woods, JKP. CBs could be a major strength or a huge question mark. I feel like one of the starting corners needs to return in order for us to feel comfortable. Ambry is likely going to be very good, but who would start opposite of him? It’s going to be someone very light on experience regardless. Let’s hope we get back Hill or Long and buy some time to get the young guys up to speed.
Projecting this far out is obviously not an exact science, but we will again likely have some very good talent on both sides of the ball.
Feel free to contribute, or just throw snark if thats your thing.
September 25th, 2018 at 10:49 PM ^
Jesus.
Holy white space.
Don't do that again, buddy.
September 25th, 2018 at 11:16 PM ^
I’d move Charbonnet up, I think he’s that good. Maybe even a 1a 1b situation with Evans if they still want to run lots of power and want a bigger back.
September 26th, 2018 at 9:50 AM ^
Agree. Charbonnet will be 1a. He'll be no lower than 1b.
September 26th, 2018 at 10:31 AM ^
Agree with this. He should be a great compliment to Evans and Turner and a true power back. The one variable that could limit him is pass protection but the guy plays LB and CB on his team and already at 225 and very physical, one can hope that he is at least a decent blocker. Early enrollment should give a good shot at that.
September 27th, 2018 at 8:34 AM ^
Evans could well not see much playing time next year. I think Samuels is Higdon and Turner is better than Evans. If Charbonnet comes in and is Jonathon Taylor...look out. At this point Gray is still coming...he will likely need a year to adapt to the college game but the sky is the limit. Jackson should be dynamite in the slot.
Otherwise, Gary and Bush will be in the NFL so I'm not sure why they are included. Hill can play corner-maybe start him as your nickel back...get that kid on the field. Little Hutch replaces Gary. Nobody replaces Bush and Winovich but there is decent talent to make a viable attempt. LOTS of talent all the way around.
September 26th, 2018 at 6:25 AM ^
What about Martellus?
September 26th, 2018 at 8:45 AM ^
Good Ole JMart.
September 25th, 2018 at 10:39 PM ^
I see Shea sticking around at about 50%. Call me crazy, but I could see Gary returning. Bush is definitely going.
September 25th, 2018 at 10:48 PM ^
Do you have any inside info or from press conferences and such do you just feel like Gary is more than kid of guy? I just don't see why you would assume Bush would go while Gary would come back, unless they've said things I'm not privy to.
September 25th, 2018 at 11:02 PM ^
No inside info. My reasons are 1) there are a lot of good DEs in the next draft, so he could move up to a top 5 or 10 pick if he stays, 2) I think he has some room to improve and 3) he seems like a guy who wants to get his degree.
September 25th, 2018 at 10:54 PM ^
Crazy
September 26th, 2018 at 2:36 AM ^
I could see Gary staying. I think Shea will be gone, and that’s good because it means we’ve had a strong finish to this season. Also feel good about the QB room now.
Bush is gone unless he gets injured.
September 26th, 2018 at 8:47 AM ^
Considering the fact that Gary has already been fighting injury, I would think he would want to start getting paid and not risk something truly career threatening. And I wouldn't blame him.
I don't see Shea as being good enough for the NFL yet. He needs another year of seasoning. But I don't know that I want him to stay. I think McCaffrey has the higher ceiling and I would love to have him be our guy for 3 years.
September 26th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
Well, you always want more good options at a position like QB. If Shea stays, the better player will play and then we'd have a better backup. There is no reason not to want him to stay.
And the backup situation could be dicey in 2019 if Shea leaves and Peters transfers. Milton would have to be ready or it'd be true freshman McNamara.
September 26th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
I think the days of having experienced options in reserve at QB are gone. QB transfers have become so commonplace that if a guy doesn't think he's going to start he would rather sit a year and play elsewhere.
Anyway, I don't have any say in the matter, so what I think is inconsequential. But I think McCaffrey looks almost ready to go this year and by next year he should have full command of the team. I would love to see what Harbaugh could do with 3 years of QB continuity.
September 26th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
You're crazy, Crazy. I don't know what the 50% circumstances are that he stays. It seems well known to insiders that his desire is to go so I'm curious what 50% you're thinking about. Same for Gary but even fewer circumstances make sense to me.
September 25th, 2018 at 10:53 PM ^
Be honest, you were just looking for a reason to talk about Dax playing for Michigan next year, weren’t you?
September 25th, 2018 at 11:08 PM ^
Recruits are going to play a heavy part in next years roster depending on how we end up finishing this class. If we are able to hit on our remaining high level targets, our depth is going to be MUCH better. Hinton, Hill, Charbonnet, and probably Rumler are going to be 2 deep or better when they get into fall camp. *If* we were to land our highest ranked targets such as Harrison, Karlaftis, Ford, Keegan, and Crouch most of them would be in the 2 deep or better as well. That would be a lot of high level talent coming in that would be hard to keep off the field.
September 27th, 2018 at 9:06 AM ^
Agreed. And it is not crazy talk to be optimistic about landing several of those elite recruits that are still out there. That the recruiting front is very quiet in this regard is very good news for Michigan fans. Here, if the real insiders were not reasonably optimistic Sainristal, Sanguinetti, Rodas Jonhnson and a lower rated LT would be signed up. If in the end the 2019 class includes Cine, Ford, Keegan, Foskey, Crouch and Harrison or Karlaftis or both...OMG...Michigan is off to the races.
September 25th, 2018 at 11:39 PM ^
Fuck next year... It's all about now!
September 25th, 2018 at 11:44 PM ^
I really don’t think either corner can afford to leave at this point. Vert hasn’t looked like the same player this season (perhaps a nagging injury). From what we’ve seen so far — they both (Hill and Long) need another year.
Evans, Samuels, Wilson, Turner, Mason, + 1 of the freshman will be a nice haul at RB. Really don’t think Shea is ready yet either, so next year could truly shape up to be Harbaugh’s best squad.
One game that worries me more this week than last — Army. They have turned it around and their performance vs OU was impressive.
September 25th, 2018 at 11:50 PM ^
Army won't be a fun game, but it's hard to understand how bad the Big 12 defenses are. Oklahoma's D is very poorly coached compared to Michigan. I wouldn't sweat it too much.
September 26th, 2018 at 1:56 AM ^
Oklahoma fan here.
Mike Stoops is a terrible defensive coordinator who holds them back. He cost them a national championship last year.
September 25th, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^
Weird to think about, but I think our DL will be one of the weaker positions on the team next year
September 26th, 2018 at 2:33 AM ^
I’ll take that bet. Unless Mattison leaves, I feel great about finding very good production from this group:
Hutchinson, Paye, Vilain, Upshaw, Welschof, Solomon, Kemp, Dwumfour, Jeter. And we will add Hinton, Smith, and Ojabo as potential contributors from day one. Harrison could also join the class.
It appears we are going to get plenty of production from the 2018 class and that our roster is finally back to Michigan’s standards. Now it’s time to do even better and close this 2019 class strong.
September 26th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
Yes, Hutchinson and Paye look like they actually might not represent big downgrades from Winovich and Gary which is a very pleasant surprise.
September 26th, 2018 at 12:01 AM ^
Is Hutchinson a step down from Gary?
Hutch has looked terrific as a true freshman. He actually looks and plays like a Bosa bro out there
September 26th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^
I mean, I realize Gary isn't a "destroyer of all things" like many hoped but he's still really, really good and a first rounder. Hutch might get there but highly, highly unlikely his sophomore campaign is not a step down from Gary as a Jr. Question is how big of a step down. Looks and sounds like not much.
September 26th, 2018 at 2:24 AM ^
Great post. Love the roster analysis, and agree with most of it. Losing Shea will be tough, but the offense should be as good or better than this year everywhere else. Bredeson may leave early, but I think we have plenty of options at OG.
What I’ve seen so far from Paye and Hutch makes me think we have a DE factory going. If Vilain can recover and contribute we will have a three headed monster outside, with some potential freshmen contributors. DT should be improved. LB will miss its star in Bush but Ross, Gil, Anthony, and Singleton will be peaking. McGrone should be starting to learn the ropes. Seems like Hudson will be back at this point, but he might blow up the rest of this year.
As you said, the CBs will be a question, but I’d don’t see Hill and Long both leaving. Watson is going to get drafted and is eating snaps from the other two. Long probably stays and is rewarded with a 1st rd grade in the 2020 draft. Then we just need one hit from the rest of the group. Daxton Hill will contribute from day one.
To me, this year looks like the beginning of having a very good team every year for the foreseeable future, assuming we can hold onto Don Brown and Warriner. I just don’t see a position where we won’t have playmakers.
That said, what this year's team is lacking and next year’s might too is a Heisman contending playmaker, and we need some one to fill that role if we are going to win a CFP. Woodson was the difference between 97 being a very good year and being an MNC.
Who is that guy in 2019? For that matter, do we have that guy in 2018? It could be Shea, but I’m not sure there is another possibility. Was really hoping Gary would be on that level. I suppose it’s possible he stays another year and becomes that guy.
September 26th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^
I think Daxton Hill and Zach Charbonnet could be those kinds of players around 2020-21. Daxton on the D side because of how Don Brown's defense places pressures on the safeties -- if Daxton can stop the slants, our D will be unstoppable. On the offensive side, a true world-class RB -- which we haven't had since Mike Hart -- will not only be important on its own accord, especially with an improved OL, but will open up the passing game for whoever is the QB at that point.
September 26th, 2018 at 7:33 AM ^
One, eff off. Comparing this year to next year before we're even into our second conference game is a pure life-sucker. Two, next year's offense should be good, but the overall success all depends on how many juniors enter the draft. Patterson, Gentry, Bush, Hudson, Hill, Long, Gary, etc. If everyone except Gary comes back we'll be good. If they all go we're in trouble. If it's 50% of them we'll still probably have a drop off from this year. Now, go please enjoy this year before we start projecting to next year. For all we know all our major contributors will get injured next year or we get some awesome new transfer. This is futile this early and is a sure fire way to suck all the enjoyment out of this season. We wait all year for football season. Stay in the moment and enjoy what we have.
September 26th, 2018 at 7:36 AM ^
Enjoy this year, because 2019 will be a step back.
Don't say I didn't warn you.
September 27th, 2018 at 9:23 AM ^
Not true....2019's roster will have a higher ceiling than 2018...and it begins with the most important position group-the O-line. If Bredeson stays the OL will stand with the great Michigan lines of old...and this will be the greatest difference-maker. McCaffrey and Peters can win you an NC from the QB side. The 2019 roster will be even bigger, stronger and faster than 2018. The defense will be tenacious...Solomon and gang will dominate the middle and the DE's will be elite. The LBs will be lights out and Hill, Cine and Hawkins will allow the CBs to play inside the WRs' shirts. Tell me how you contain this offense and attack the defense???
September 26th, 2018 at 7:53 AM ^
Why would Patterson leave? He's had all of ZERO good games against good competition and he's about 5'9 180.
I think he has no career in the NFL unless he considers getting stomped into oblivion a good way to earn a living.
September 26th, 2018 at 8:24 AM ^
Ok bud
September 26th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^
He was a projected 1st rounder before the season started and hasn't done anything to drop his status.
September 26th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
Do you think he's going to get taller?
September 26th, 2018 at 9:28 AM ^
Offense will be great with Dylan and I'm sure one or two of the young backs will be good. Defense will still be good, may be not great until 2020 0r 2021. Just like this season, we will be in contention for B1G east.
September 26th, 2018 at 9:28 AM ^
Don’t forget O’Maury Samuels, he looked great in his limited time, besides the fumble.
September 26th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^
Haskins may break through next year too. He kind of reminds me of TD Tim.
September 26th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^
Samuels is Higdon. Charbonnet...is a back Michigan has not had in a very long time...ever??? RB is/will be a strength. Evans may not play much...as an RB...maybe anywhere...if there is truly a meritocracy. Jackson goes straight to the slot.
September 26th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
"he looked great in his limited time, besides the fumble."
So he looked great except for the MOST IMPORTANT JOB OF HIS POSITION? Ok!
Even heisman-level running ability will get you benched if you can't hold on to the ball.
I hope he succeeds, but he's had some fumble issues in practice, and he needs to learn to block better.
I'm loving Mike Hart-reincarnated Tru Wilson, he certainly reminds us that stars are not the whole story.
September 26th, 2018 at 10:26 AM ^
I see only two issues... the LT development, and the interior D line performance, the latter should be ok with Solomon and Kemp, but an injury could cause real trouble there.
Having said that, one cannot project the status quo, forward a year... players will be bigger, stronger, etc...
And I wouldn't fret over losing Gary... Hutchinson is gonna be a star... I've been saying this months ago.
Losing Bush might sting the most.
September 26th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
JBB isn't exactly a placeholder for Hudson and I think that is rather critical to describe him as such. Hudson is capable of playing right now, but the coaches have decided that JBB is the better choice. It could be because of his experience or, maybe, he is just a better player right now.
September 26th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
Hudson is very close to JBB right now with basically zero experience at OT. By next season he will be an upgrade.
September 26th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
Due to his past struggles at pass pro, JBBs run blocking has been quite overlooked. He might be our best run blocker..hes always moving the pile . If he improves pass pro with Warinner,then we may have something.
September 26th, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
The defense could be absolutely decimated By my estimation we will lose 9 to 10 key contributors. Gary, Winovich, Mone, Marshall, Bush, Furbush, Kinnel, Watson, and potentially Cornerbacks Long and Hill.
That’s a whole Lotta talent that needs replaced
September 26th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
Geez I didn't realize it was so many. But Browns track record should give benefit of doubt.
Hill and older Metellus and Hawkins, will be an upgrade in my opinion, at safety.
Thomas will cover one of the losses.
The question mark would be at LB, how well McGrone and Uche do.
the DL will be fine .. hutch is a star,Kemp is playing well now, Solomon will be back, all the others will be older.
September 26th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
Things just never come together for Michigan. O-line will hold this team back this season. Next season D will lose too many contributors.
September 26th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
Its not even October man