What are reasonable Michigan FB Team Success Criteria
I think there are now 4 primary goals for the football team to achieve each year and most of them are interconnected.
Beat key rivals (OSU, Michigan State, Rutgers) bonus points for hitting harder
Win Big10 Championship
Make National Championship Playoff
Win National Championship
With the exception of beating Rutgers these are hard goals to achieve. OSU has the #2 ranked 4 year average recruiting class. OSU's results since 2012 (Meyer's reign)
2 Big Ten Titles (2014 & 2017)
1 National Championship (2014)
2 National Championship Playoff Invites (2014 & 2016).
My personal thought is we beat OSU every other year, Michigan State 75% of the time, Win the Big10 1 out of 4 years, & makes the National Championship 1 out of every 4 years then the program is doing as well as we can reasonably expect.
What say you?
December 5th, 2017 at 11:19 PM ^
Bullshit. Dantonio built up a psychological edge while our program was in the dumps. They were 3-9 last year. State is a trash program that had once-in-a-century good fortune with the 2- and 3-star kids they someone won a couple conference programs with the first half of this decade. We're twice as talented as they are every year. They need to be treated like OSU treated them this year--remind their players why Michigan, OSU, Penn State, and every other truly top-tier program in the country didn't want them.
December 6th, 2017 at 10:19 PM ^
This is an interesting point. And got me thinking, who are the truly top-tier programs with one National championship since 1950 and no Power 5 conference championships since 2004?
So far I've got: Michigan
Iowa
Colorado
BYU (has won conference but their conference sucks)
Syracuse (big east)
Pitt (big east)
Am I missing anybody?
December 5th, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^
I was wondering when someone would bring this up - we were 3-1 against MSU during my undergrad years at Michigan. That's kind of what I would like to see moving forward quite honestly, the return to their occasional victory being a "meh" moment for us but a chance for use to also tune them out in the knowledge that more than likely their jawing will not last.
December 5th, 2017 at 7:31 PM ^
December 6th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
Since MSU joined the big ten it is actually 57% wins against MSU.
December 6th, 2017 at 5:25 PM ^
the sixties as well as the last decade. If we believe that the program is on an upward swing then getting back to winning four of five, five of six, or seven of eight is reasonable. During my time at Michigan we expected to beat MSU.
To pick a non-random period of 1969-1980, seven years of which I was there, Michigan went 9-2 vs MSU. Michigan won eight in a row and never lost to MSU while I was a student.
Perspective: From 1949, the year following their National Championship to 1969, Bo's first year, Michigan's record against MSU was 4-15-2. Bo arrived and lost to them his first year and then won the next eight in a row. There is no reason that can't happen with Harbaugh. Football is cyclical.
December 7th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^
But don't you think things are different with MSU in the big ten?
MSU will never return to Michigan Agriculture College.
Macro trends are what we should look at and I think it is reasonable to not expect us to win at a 75% clip. For example, if you remove the Dantonio era and look at when MSU joined the big ten through 2006 Michigan only won 63% of the games. That is why I think ideally Michigan should win 2/3. It reverts us to pre Dantonio levels. Michigan beat MAC at 77% clip, but now that MSU is in the big ten and we have scholarship limitations I don't expect to win that much.
December 26th, 2017 at 5:32 PM ^
"But don't you think things are different with MSU in the big ten?"
Short answer no I don't. Over the history of UofM football, MSU has done well only when Michigan, for whatever reason, de-emphasized winning, or perhaps taken winning for granted.
Compared to MSU, Michigan has several structural advantages. If Michigan is willing to make the investment, beating MSU fifteen or sixteen out of every twenty years should be well within the relm of possibility. That said, you'd be hard pressed to find a forty year period where Michigan has been willing to consistently make that investment.
December 26th, 2017 at 8:08 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 6:13 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 6:15 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 6:32 PM ^
Win a big ten title. We should be be in the division championship game every other year and winning championships every 3 years.
We have more talent than every team in our conference save one, its time to start playing like it. Stop choking away 4th quarter leads, and getting embarrassed by rivals.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:26 PM ^
Next year: reasonable is Big Ten title, ideal is playoff berth.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:29 PM ^
Do this and the other goals take care of themselves.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:35 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 6:58 PM ^
If 8 wins is your basement, 10 wins your normal with the odd 11-13 win season (i.e. playoffs or playoff contention) thrown in there every few years you're in pretty good shape.
For me the expectation regarding rivals always depends on the relative strength in a given year. There's no point in yelling for firings if you lose to a playoff contender who also happens to be your rival.
I feel like one of the particulars of the OSU game over the last decade and a half or so is that it's been really really rare for us to meet OSU in an even matchup or even one in which we're seen as better. Like in how many out of those games since Tressel arrived was Michigan favored ahead of the game by neutrals? 2011 probably and we did win that. 2001 stands out as a game where we were hugely favored and lost and to some extent it could be argued that game probably set everything in motion the way it evolved since then. But other than that it feels like we're always up against it. Last year I felt like we had a legit shot but of course *that* game is in Columbus while it's this year's rebuilding team that plays them in Ann Arbor.
I think what this fanbase emotionally needs more than anything in terms of 'feeling' successful is katharsis vs OSU. Just get that one game where everything works and you just destroy a good OSU team. The kind of game every Michigan fan records and puts on to watch on many dreary off-season nights for years to come. There's other very satisfying wins, blowing out Penn State last year for example, but it's gotta be OSU and a good OSU team at that to really heal the wounds of 2007-2014.
December 6th, 2017 at 12:46 PM ^
In regard to rivals. That is why you don't judge a coach on a single game but rather his overall record. 2 out of 5 against OSU would make me happy, and at this point 1 out of 2 against MSU. Ideally in a post Dantonio world that changes to 3 out of 5 against them which is awfully close the 62.9% that we averaged against them from 1953 when they joined the big ten until 2006 which is the last year before Dantonio.
December 5th, 2017 at 7:05 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 7:30 PM ^
less complicated my definition of success becomes. Have been following UofM football closely for over 40 years. Win percentages, statistics and records mean far less to me today than they once did. Now, its all about passing the eye test. Give me a Michigan team with very few flaws, a team thats tough in every way, fun to watch. Give me a team that my gut knows can go head to head with any team in the nation and I'll be happy to let the chips fall where they may.
December 5th, 2017 at 7:24 PM ^
December 6th, 2017 at 1:22 AM ^
the playoffs are expanded to 8 teams. We can still finish 11-1, not win the east but still get into the playoffs.
December 6th, 2017 at 9:02 AM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 7:27 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 7:33 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 7:47 PM ^
Take it year by year. Trying to predict things further ahead than that is an act of futility. I think that with the schedule we have and team we have returning, we should win 9 games next year.
December 6th, 2017 at 1:17 AM ^
9 games will be possible. The team will be better but the schedule will be tougher. If we can beat PSU and WI at home and sparty on the road we could have 10 wins. We may lose on the road to ND and OSU.
December 5th, 2017 at 7:52 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 9:54 PM ^
He has a national championship there, has never lost to Michigan, and is winning a pace greater than Michigan football has had since the 70s or earlier. How is that underchieving?
December 6th, 2017 at 11:32 AM ^
Based on what ive read in this thread most Michigan fans are delusional. That is how a national championship and 6-0 against your rival with a 12-0 season (They likely would have won another big ten title if they weren't banned from the postseason), and 2 conference titles, while literally tying for the division championship every year can be viewed as underachieving.
December 5th, 2017 at 7:52 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 8:06 PM ^
In a four-year span, we should beat MSU 3 times and split with PSU and OSU. That should ensure that The Game is for a spot in Indianapolis. And I believe 2 trips to Indianapolis every 4 years is reasonable.
December 5th, 2017 at 8:08 PM ^
December 6th, 2017 at 9:04 AM ^
How is it reasonable to win a national championship once per decade when we've won 1 national championship in 69 years?
December 5th, 2017 at 8:33 PM ^
Beating MSU needs to happen 3 out of every 4 years, even 4 out of every 5 once Mark is gone.
OSU need to beat them 50% of the time, after a few year run of beating them.
Playing in the B10 title game every other year.
Assuming playoff doesn't expand, once every 3 to 4 years.
December 5th, 2017 at 8:33 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 8:36 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 8:47 PM ^
Be playing for the right to go to the big ten championship every year before the Ohio game
If they do that they will be in contention to go to the playoffs almost every year.
Go blue
December 5th, 2017 at 9:00 PM ^
Never losing again.
Even in the spring game.
December 5th, 2017 at 9:01 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 9:13 PM ^
December 5th, 2017 at 9:15 PM ^
We WIN them ALL. Go Blue.
December 5th, 2017 at 10:25 PM ^
December 6th, 2017 at 3:15 AM ^
December 6th, 2017 at 1:09 AM ^
I think Harbaugh did well this season, not having his starting QB and winning most of the games he should have won, minus MSU at home. The defense was good but not elite. This year's OSU game reminded me a lot of the '97 OSU game. We jumped out to a quick lead but OSU came back. However, in '97 that defense held our 20-14 lead from late in the 3rd QTR through the end of the game. Our current D could not do this even with the OSU backup QB playing. I think one day our D will be elite. Look at what happened to FSU when they lost their starting QB.
December 6th, 2017 at 7:30 AM ^
These threads keep popping up and people are trying to way overcomplicate matters. Success isn't a sliding scale or a multi-factor issue. It comes down to one simple question. Did Michigan win the national championship? If the answer is yes, the season was successful. If the answer is no, the season was a failure. That's it. Nothing more to it. I realize it's been two decades now since Michigan's last successful season and people are getting anstsy, wanting to come up with a different standard to make themselves feel better, but don't try to lower the bar. We're not Rutgers or MSU. This is freaking Michigan. Excellence is the standard. It may hurt but ackowledge anything less than excellence as what it is, failure.
December 7th, 2017 at 7:36 AM ^
Comparisons don't work because different programs have different standards for success. For MSU it's beating Michigan. For EMU it's getting to a bowl game. At Michigan the standard is winning the national championship.
December 6th, 2017 at 11:30 AM ^
So Michigan has had one successful season in the last 70 years?
December 7th, 2017 at 7:34 AM ^
Yes. We need to ackowledge the others for what they were, failed seasons.
December 6th, 2017 at 8:06 AM ^
If the team meets that objective that means at least a 77% win percentage, they are consistently winning more against our rivals than losing, consistently competing for the B1G championship and in the hunt for the CFP most years. Some years things will break our way and some years they won't.