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975 on a tee shirt I’m the…

975 on a tee shirt I’m the mgostore would probably do well. Those who know will understand.

 

I love this diary. The…

I love this diary. The content. The flavor. Chef's kiss.

Here's the thing about…

Here's the thing about cumulative statistics: they suck at showing improvement. The passing game was clearly more useful/successful last week than it had previously been but not good enough to make it look that way from a YTD view.

Frankly, given where Michigan ranks right now, it's nearly impossible for them to rise to be considered even mediocre by the end of the season. Rising to the top 60 in a cumulative 2021 ranking will require performance in the top 10 over the course of the next 5 games. It ain't happening. One would wrongly conclude that the passing attack in game 11 wasn't anything to worry about when in fact they should be expecting a top 10 passing team.

Lies, Damn lies, and statistics.

This is my kind of content…

This is my kind of content. Please keep it coming. 

Tax rate on betting gains is…

Tax rate on betting gains is set at 8.4% in Michigan. Detroit casinos also take 3.25% city tax. The feds will also want their cut...its ordinary income.
 

of course if you have to pay taxes on your gambling winnings, you’re doing well...so, congratulations 

That's kind of the point…

That's kind of the point though. No recruit is a lock regardless of potential... therefore you need to maximize the amount of raw potential on your team. Then consider that a disappointing 5 star is still probably as good as your average 4 star and definitely better than the typical 3 star. It matters.

Ohio State currently has more 5 star rated recruits currently on their roster than Michigan has had on its roster, in totality, since *Ryan Mallet*. That's aboslutely stunning.

I understand the point;…

I understand the point; there’s nothing wrong with needing to see it to believe it. With that said, it doesn’t take a whole day to recognize sunshine. 

I don’t think it matters…

I don’t think it matters either. However, I’m willing to bet that the players would refer to pin-pull as that play we ran last year rather than the play Bama ran last year. It’s the kind of argument that isn’t worth having... the offense is versatile and functional. That’s all anyone who roots for Michigan should care about.

That kid is awesome.

Fuck…

That kid is awesome.

Fuck it dude...lets go bowling!

Re: Turnovers are Random...

Re: Turnovers are Random...

Fumble *recoveries* are very random but interceptions and fumbles themselves are often systemic. Inexperience, poor throwing mechanics, and bad decision making lead to interceptions; it is known, Khaleesi. Free hitters to the QB's blindside lead  to more (and better) fumble recovery opportunities. Holding the ball too long leads to free runners to the QB and thus, more fumble opportunities. Michigan's turnovers so far have not been random, they have been systemic.

I'm not trying to say all is doomed and I do believe things can be improved. However, "mean reversion" is not an improvement plan. 

XM, my opinion doesn’t…

XM, my opinion doesn’t matter but I think is easy to grossly underestimate what our kids can and can’t handle. I think your timing analogy is a good one but it’s not the child’s ability to understand that is in question, it usually our ability to help them understand that benefits from the time.

Swearing is actually a pretty easy one to shelter a kid from because it’s still relatively taboo and many people abstain from it by choice. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if most people do so.

What about alcohol consumption, though? I personally see many parallels between alcohol consumption and profanity both are typically thought of as adult behaviors. People will help you shelter a kid from profantity but similar allies in regards to alcohol consumption are hard to come by. If your kids are like mine they have certainly been curious.

How do you parse the difference between explaining alcohol consumption and profanity? They are the same to me... you can’t do this and this is why. Kids are very conditioned to that construct...

They were talking about…

They were talking about bacons 5th anniversary and how the traditional gift was wood, JUB made a subtle boner joke.

The 2011 collective…

The 2011 collective bargaining agreement rendered this issue mostly moot. There is now a rookie compensation pool that basically predetermines player compensation as a function of draft slot. What remains are bonuses and minor clauses. Even then the contracts aren’t hard to find so you could look at all the contracts that are out there and understand what lies within the realm of possibility and negotiate from there. Voila, you’re an agent!

Regardless of all that, total contract value and major clauses are pretty locked down. The NFL doesn’t want their cornered market to be unfettered, this isn’t ‘Nam.

(LINK)

Depends how you refine…

Depends how you define success, he’s already a millionaire he doesn’t need to be Jerry Maguire. I think the NFL caps agent commissions at 3 pct and rookie contracts are pretty constrained. I think miles garrret had a contract for 30M over 4-yrs as a number 1 pick in 2017. Say Gary gets half that. He’d save 450k by representing himself. I’d count that as a win even if nothing else ever came of it. 

I appreciate all that (we 3…


I appreciate all that (we 3/4/5 wide a lot this year) but that all really just gets back to my real point: there might not to be much to "see".

On the committee thing, I'm just speculating and yours is as good as mine there. In a hurry up situation, I would expect to hear this type of exchange:

Harbaugh: Josh we need tempo, lets go to the zippidiedoodah package... maybe even a little zippiddieyay

[subs go in]

Gattis: Spider 2 Y Bannana with the flippy floppy sprinkles in the hoo-hah

Everyone else: Mime show

-OR-

Gattis: Coach, they're in a voltron set... bingobango should be good here.

Harbaugh: Make it so

Ref: TOUCHDOWN

Harbaugh: Good shit, Josh.

---

During that game's preparation zippidiedoodah, zippidieyay and bingobango get chosen/designed and installed based on the scouting report for that specific opponent and specific looks/tendencies they might show. Those are specific sequences of plays that work with a specific personnel set. Having guys like Evans and Eubanks around could let those packages go from 10 to 11 to 00 without subbing thus effing with the defense even more. That's when defenders start auditioning for Emmy nominations...

I'm not a coach, so all of that is made up and probably somehow fatally flawed but it seems like checking in with 2 or 3 other guys on top of HC and OC just might slow getting the play call in enough to make a difference in a hurry up situation. If the game prep was done well...how much input/conversation is actually essential to the process?

What does "see it" mean…

What does "see it" mean though? The offense isn't going to get completely overhauled and I don't think it needs to be. The only game that I can personally WTF at is Ohio State. I was expecting/hopeful that we would attack them the same way Purdue, Nebraska, and Maryland did but with better athletes at our disposal. It didn't happen. Even then, we were OK until Bush got knocked out, we went 3-and-out, and the had the punt blocked for a TD. Maybe Florida too but there were other issues at play there.  

In 2019 we need to be able to go up-tempo... one man sequencing the plays should help tremendously there. We also need to be able to go 3/4/5 wide if/when the situation calls for it. We wont be going 00 for the hell of it, and we certainly don't need to.

Do we need to scrap the I-form? I would say, hell no. It has its time and place.

I'm looking forward to seeing Gattis do his thing, we have the horses.

People engage in way more…

People engage in way more dangerous activities for way less fame and fortune. Bullrider died this week after getting stomped on by a bull.

At the NFL level and at the college level football players are adults making a cost-benefit decision.

Youth sports are a different matter.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2019/01/16/bull-rider-mason-lowe-dies-injuries-pbr-denver/2593218002/

 

Faehn's timeline is really…

Faehn's timeline is really difficult to put together. The way I understand it:

She joins USAG. A month later a coach overhears some ahtletes (Nichols, Raisman) discussing Nassar's "treatments" and approaches Faehn about the situation. Keep in mind that at the time, people were still trying to figure out if there was a legitimate medical procedure happening. It is known that some of Nassar's abuse occurred with the victim's parents present in the room... that's how fucked up this situation is. During that investigation Nichols, Raisman and Maroney disclose more details... that's when the FBI was contacted.

(LINK)

The quality of the decisions you make is directly related to the quality of the information you have. The gymnasts didn't go directly to their coach nor Rhonda Feahn... it is those women that initiated the investigation which ultimately led to the details coming out.

Aly Raisman's public criticism of Faehn was "I dont know what she did or didn't do with [the information we gave her]." Well, Ali, she took it to the FBI.

---

The Michigan gymnastics team lost a potential asset to its program and its very unfortunate because almost everything happened appropriately. Almost...

I agree that it probably…

I agree that it probably wouldn't be insurmountably chaotic but there are many issues that arise from open transfer. Coaches can get fired, college players can't. Should the school be able to cut a player because he isn't as good as they thought when they recruited him?

How about this one: "Hey Tate, Justin just took your spot. We don't need you anymore, pack your bags."

I see *reasonable* transfer restrictions as the opposite side of the coin to not being able to pull a player's scholarship for performance/medical reasons.

She didn't let it rest there…

She didn't let it rest there. It was she that reported it to the FBI. Its not even close to the JoePa scenario.

Keep in mind that at the time, people were still trying to figure out if there was a legitimate medical procedure happening. Some of Nassar's abuse occurred with the victim's parents present in the room... that's how fucked up this situation was/is. 

The vast majority of the people skewering Feahn over her actions don't have anywhere close to the clarity on the facts as they assume to have. They hear Nassar, they hear accusations from Aly Raisman, and that's enough for them.

Yes, use of racist, sexist,…

Yes, use of racist, sexist, homphobic, and other terms in that vein is deplorable and should not be tolerated. The Univeristy of Georgia acted swiftly and definitively. What else is the univeristy supposed to do?

Compare with the Reschke incident at MSU (LINK). That was an incident between guys in the same lockeroom and affected the entire team. None of the black players claimed that they weren't safe in East Lansing.

Field's claim is complete and utter bullshit and it diminishes the credibility of those that make this claim on a legitimate basis.

Stephen, Harbaugh  is…

Stephen, Harbaugh  is telling us with his own mouth that Gattis is the OC for 2019 and the prevailing response is "I'll believe it when I see it." That's Fine. But, what reason is there to doubt that he's speaking the truth here? In 2018 Harbaugh would not speak a name when he was asked who the OC was (LINK, correct me if I'm wrong). The fact that Gattis has been named as such is already a change in behavior.

Whatever, man, I'm not trying to go 'round and round here. Past behavior is a good predictor of future behavior, but people change their behavior all the time. Harbaugh's offensive tendencies have developed over time because they have previously led to success. He has also shown the behavior of adaptability many times before but he doesn't seem to get credit for that, only manball. A main constant in Harbaugh's behavioral history is an unwavering commitment to doing whatever he can do to win which includes adding to the repertoire of "what works".

Manball *still* wins a lot of football games (10 aint 0), but we needed more than that to beat Ohio State last year. Going to get Gattis is as clear an indication that Harbaugh recognizes that fact as we can possibly get... yet look at how many people doubt that he recognizes and accepts that reality.

Its all good Stephen, I don't think you and I are that far apart. Like I said, I'll have a drank waiting for you on the "ITS HAPPENING" bus.

 

The skepticism against…

The skepticism against Harbaugh's desire to win is hilarious to me. I get it but it still makes me ROFL. People must be forgetting the account of him going all Predator on a 10-year old so he could get the most kills in a laser tag game. Dude doesn't have "casual competition" mode.  There's winning and there's losing... that's all there is. Win with character (dont cheat), win with cruelty. Those are the only requirements. Recognize that as butthurt as we all are over how the season ended that is the bare minimum for how Harbaugh feels about it.

He recognizes changes are needed in order to reach the goals he has for himself and his program. Rational changes are happening right in front of people's faces (ones they have clamored for) and yet those people presume to know Harbaugh better than he knows himself. Gimme a break.

The fear of disappointment is a strong phobia indeed. Take as much time as you need, fellas. The drinks will be flowing whenever you decide to join the party.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jim-harbaugh-admits-he-destroyed-a-kid-in-laser-tag-at-his-bachelor-party/

Hear, hear.

Hear, hear.

Nah, man. There are…

Nah, man. There are definitely people here--a whole lot of them--that are 100% certain that Faehn is not worthy of being involved with gymnastics ever again. The baby's getting thrown out with the bathwater here and its hard for me to see it any other way. And, the proportion of people who are willing to do so (while stating erroneous information, mind you) is deeply concerning. 

There could have been a path forward for Faehn at Michigan to the mutual benefits of both but the Athletic Department lit that path on fire in the way they mishandled the situation from start to finish.

This is the SECOND time, Feahn has been [adversely affected, ahem] by the errors of her superiors.

I’m sorry but the vast…

I’m sorry but the vast majority of people are grossly under informed over what Faehn did once she had the opportunity to act. She received information, the organization investigated, and they terminated Nassar five days later at which time they alerted the FBI. I would honestly like to know what course of action on her part would have been better or more expedient

At this I believe people are entrenched in their opinions regardless of whether those opinions have been formed on accurate information. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/sports/breaking/ct-spt-usa-gymnastics-larry-nassar-scandal-20180518-story,amp.html

Faehn isn’t from MSU, she…

Faehn isn’t from MSU, she was from USA gymnastics. Her situation isn’t cut and dry

Here again I’m not certain…

Here again I’m not certain this is a reasonable expextation (notifying Nassar’s employer as well)... mandatory reporting CPS is one thing, but are you also obligated to go around and identify/inform every other institution the perpetrator is involved with (church groups, youth sports teams, etc)? I admit that I don’t know what is and isn’t required in this situation but that seems like a grossly unrealistic expectation to me.

This is a tough one. Sounds…

This is a tough one. Sounds like Faehn ran her information up the chain of command in a reasonable amount of time then acted again when the up line failed. Not sure how else that’s supposed to go... the only alternative is to go full whistleblower right from the jump. I wouldn’t rust anyone who did that in a delegatory role. The threat of immediate harm is different (Mcqueary). Hard for me to conclude she was protecting Nassar, seems like she was trying to give the chain of command a chance to react appropriately, gave it a chance, and then responded when she was let down by her superiors.

That said, Major mistep here by Warde Manual. They needed to explain the reasoning behind their decision immediately after it was made and before others questioned it. I don’t doubt that they knew criticisms would follow the decision. Handling this way only serves to amplify the knee jerk reaction by people who definitely don’t know what the hell happened with Feahns involvement in the Nassar fiasco other than the fact the she was let go in the aftermath.

it sucks and I understand the criticism 

This may have been Harbaugh…

This may have been Harbaugh's best rated S&P+  offensive unit at Michigan but those previous offenses lacked the available talent that the 2018 team did. 

It's criminal that Shea Patterson + Donovan Peoples Jones + Nico Collins + Tarik Black + Zach Gentry + Karan Higdon or Chris Evans + decent OL = Mediocre Offense. Hand that roster to Jeff Brohm or Matt Canada or Scott Frost or Joe Morehead or Lincoln Riley or Tom Herman or Mike Leach or  Kliff Kingsbury or Chip Kelly or Brian Kelly or [insert a couple dozen other coaches/coordinators names here] and there's no  fathomable way in hell their teams get their asses handed to them like Ohio State and Florida did to Harbaugh.

There's no two ways to look at this man, Harbaugh needs to evolve his approach. If Pep can't convince him otherwise then he's failing at his job and so is every other offensive coach on staff.

When you've said Dooon Brown…

When you've said Dooon Brown, you've said it all!

 

Hope Harbaugh has a Don Brown padawan on the staff, soaking up everything there is to soak up. 

Why did you do that? Why did you do it that way?

Tho it's been said many…

Tho it's been said many times, many ways: fuck the buckeyes, go blue!

 

/Bing Crosby

that's a massive distortion…

that's a massive distortion of reality.

both populations have seen 21% attrition, nothing to see here.

"Grey shirting is a…

"Grey shirting is a recruiting term that is not as commonly used as the term redshirting. A grey shirt is an incoming college freshman who postpones his enrollment in classes until the second term of his freshman year. This means they don’t take classes until the winter term. The NCAA allows college athletes five years to complete four years of eligibility after initial enrollment.

When a grayshirt puts off his enrollment, he’s extending his eligibility past his senior year for another term. Grayshirting is most commonly used in football. By delaying enrollment until the winter after his senior year of high school, a football player can play the fall season one year after his graduation date."

https://www.athleticscholarships.net/question/what-is-grey-shirting

Lincoln Riley’s offenses at…

Lincoln Riley’s offenses at East Carolina weren’t really that good; I think their highest offense I’ve S&P+ finish was mid twenties while he was there and mostly in the 40-70 range. They scored points but against who?

To me an important distinction between Riley and Day is that Riley was around the program he took over much longer than Day was. Riley was QB coach for both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and was there to recruit them. As an aside, Dabo Swinney had a similar profile to Riley in that he was on Bowdens staff for a while and had established himself as a fantastic recruiter at Clemson before ascending to head coach. By comparison, Ryan Day has accomplished very little in his own right than either of those two.

Maybe he “works out” for OSU but that doesn’t mean he’ll a good as Urban Meyer or even Jim Tressel. Brian Kelley worked out for Notre Dame; will Ohio State accept that level of success? That’s a significant step down from where they’ve been for almost 20 years... we’ll see.

Um... thats exactly what…

Um... thats exactly what Oklahoma is now except with way better players than Texas Tech ever had.

Having 2 Heisman level…

Having 2 Heisman level players in your cupboard is a helluva way to start a career. Kevin Sumlin looked pretty good when he had one of those... 

And Dabo was already established as an *elite* recruiter when he ascended to the job. Tommy Bowden era Clemson was a mediocre program...Dabo made that thing what it is. Waaaaay different situation than taking over  2019 Ohio State or 2017 Oklahoma.

Yeah, that’s the same…

Yeah, that’s the same question but flipped to the offensive side. Despite our glaring issues schematically, we scored 39 with a dropped td and two failed 2pt conversions that should have been plenty to be honest. 

HOWEVA it became clear that we would need much more offense once the defense was sca-rewed. Bush went out what, 5 minutes into the third? Then the blocked punt td happened soon after.  That’s when (at the absolute latest) we needed to find an extra gear on offense and we have the players to do it as evidenced by our two minute drill at the end of the first half.

Brohm, Frost, and Canada all kept their teams in the game with superior offensive game plans and less talent than what is available at Michigan and with much worse defenses. Offense and defense are not mutually exclusive, you’re allowed to be awesome at both.

 

I think the comments above…

I think the comments above are reasonable and fair but it’s not like Urban Myer and Co had some epiphany going into this game... how in the hell was MSU able to slow these guys down? They were way more successful against Ohio state than we were defensively.

Seems like we have better talent our deficiencies notwithstanding... what am I missing?

I go the other way, actually…

I go the other way, actually. I think it exposes and quantifies the hidden BS within of the playoff committee process. Its obvious that the committee is giving certain teams more credit than they've earned for reasons that are not communicated to us simpletons. Bias is bias whether there's an agenda or not.

I like this approach is because of how transparent it is. Yes, there's a huge systemic biases at play (examples: beating Rutgers is the same as beating Fresno State, beating Utah State is less valuable than beating Minnesota) but this bias is obviously an accurate reflection of what the committee and vast majority of people think anyway.

Let's play out the season the way that is broadly expected: the SEC championship game precipitates 1 of 2 possible out comes with the rest of the top 5 winning out:

  • Clemson finishes with 26.5 pts.
  • Michigan finishes with 26.
  • Notre Dame finishes at 23.
  • Alabama finishes at either 27 pts if they win in the SEC title or 20 if they lose.
  • Georgia finishes with 24 pts if the beat Alabama would see them finish with 24 pts.


There's absolutely no way to rank Alabama ahead of Michigan (or Notre Dame for that matter) without them winning the SEC championship or gifting them 6.5 points... thats almost 35% boost. Hogwash, I say; the greatest team in the history of the universe should be able to either get in without such shenanigans or handle a more difficult schedule.

We have to value being undefeated at 4 points in order to vault Notre Dame ahead of Michigan, which I actually find palatable given how hard it is to do that. Knock off point for only playing 12 games instead of 13 like real teams and add a half point as a head-to-head tie breaker and the world suddenly makes sense again.

TLDR...this is good shit.

This is cool and the…

This is cool and the simplicity of the system fascinates me.

What program/method are you using to iterate the ranking?

Dominant is a bit much. They…

Dominant is a bit much. They're good, probably about as good as Iowa/Mississippi State but not quite Michigan State/Kentucky. ND's best defensive game of the season came against us and the mitigating circumstances there have been covered.

Losing Book brings their offense down to average and as discussed, their defense is solid but not DOMINANT.

betting limits increase…

betting limits increase later in the week

Moneyflow and The Limit Lift…

Moneyflow and The Limit Lift could explain this.

The topic of the Michigan line came up on the board earlier this week and the general commentary was similar: the 10 pt line seemed high but was necessary to keep the book balanced. Yes, this is day 1 of Sports Wagering 101. However, books also control bet limits and early in the week the limits are way lower than they are later in the week in order to manage risk while the market is resolves.

The book not only sees where the money goes but also where it comes from. This is probably a situation where there was a clear sharp-square split in the action early in the week. Bet limits go up, big money comes in (on Michigan in this case) and new PSU money comes in to meet it. The risk skew ultimately evens out but only because there was a lot of square money on one side to begin with.

This may be a case where the line was kept off of the final balance point in order to trap an imbalance in square PSU money before the limits were increased.

The book definitely knows how to recognize and exploit advantageous situations, believe that.

Sometimes the book is…

Sometimes the book is willing to take exposure on one side vs the other. Maybe bookie thinks M smashes them but knows the market won’t make them lay the correct number off pts.  I wouldn’t be surprise to see Penn state catch some steam here, in which case there will be a lot of dead PSU money trapped at 11... Michigan or nothing on this one.

Good shit jedd dot gif

Good shit jedd dot gif

Amen and LFG.

 

In summary…

Amen and LFG.

In summary, Go Blue!

Damn. Your contributions to…

Damn. Your contributions to the blog have been and will be missed. Whenever I write a diary I strive to mimic the voice that the blog staff has forged over the years and you are one of the pillars upon which that standard rises. We look forward to seeing you resume the mantle of Michigan excellence in your next endeavor.

Godspeed and Go Blue

Yoikes. It wasn't a…

Yoikes. It wasn't a committee of one, guy.

I heard something to that…

I heard something to that effect too. The report I heard was that Urban Myer's agent told him two women were on their over and they needed his phone for about four hours. So, that statement might very well be true. If someone else does the dirty work then you're clean, right??