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Based on this write-up, it…

Based on this write-up, it would be disappointing if the wolverines didn't rush for 300 yards and score 40 points.  May it be so!  Go Blue!

There is no secret about…

There is no secret about building an elite woman's basketball program.  It's the same as men before the draft-age was lowered to 19.  As far as last year, Michigan's problems revolved around the guards.  Before the tournament, they depended far too much on getting the ball inside in unimaginative ways or letting Brown create.  There was little ball movement, less scoring, and poor shooting as a rule.  In the tournament, there was good ball movement, more scoring, but still little three-point shooting from guards given how open they usually were.  On the plus side, almost all the guards play great one-on-one defense.  Improving next year depends on improved guard play and more generally, good ball movement, ball handling, and more consistent three-point shooting.

Despite too many turnovers,…

Despite too many turnovers, the ball movement yesterday was better yesterday.  Unsurprisingly, the outside shooters did better as a result, but the difference was L. Brown and her rejuvenation as a scorer. The Lady Vols will be a tough test, but they're an easier matchup than the no. 1 or no. 2 teams that the Wolverines have drawn in other years.  Go Blue!

But let's hope not on the…

But let's hope not on the football field! ;-)

Thanks, Seth, for another…

Thanks, Seth, for another great post that shows how hard it is to say anything definite about a 17 year olds line prospect unless they really stand out physically a la Rashan Gary.  He seems to have the right frame, balance, and some skills, and that makes him a good signing to me.  So does his attitude toward academics.  All suggest a high character guy that will work hard to improve his game.  Does he make the rotation away if he adds 20 lbs. of muscle this summer.  Well, maybe.  The state of Michigan's defensive line is dire at the moment, and those that work the hardest will get a chance.  How did it come to that?  Disappointing.

Needless risk is needless…

Needless risk is needless because it can be easily avoided.  By that definition, the risk was needless. But Ace has not framed the question right.  The question is whether playing the game was an acceptable risk.  Was the potential benefit greater than the potential risk?  If your facts are correct, then the positive test increased the risk of playing the game very, very little.  It did not change the existing calculus enough to cause the game to be canceled.

Thanks as always for the…

Thanks as always for the excellent write up.   My take emphasizes Brown even more than yours.  With her, the team has the classic front line-back line combination that is hard to defend.  Without her, there is often no reliable outside shooting.  That means the opposing team can double inside and still cover enough outside.  Maddie Nolan is the only one off the bench that seems to bring an elite level of energy, but she doesn't score often enough to replace L. Brown.  Rauch and Sidor have their moments, but too often they don't for somewhat different reasons.   Some of the young inside players look promising, and it would help to have the player in Brazil back.  But Go Blue!

If Franz continues to play…

If Franz continues to play at this level, then the team has a shot at NCAAA championship. But it's not just him, it's Dickinson and Brown and Smith.  The latter three are brand new to the team.  Even Eli has continued to improve.  And Big Country.   I worried about defense and wing player development  when Howard came just because Belein was so good at it.   No problem so far.

Brand me a true Blue…

Brand me a true Blue believer, but I never thought the game was seriously in doubt, even at halftime.  Wagner and Michigan had a hand right in Allen's face almost every time.  It was also obvious that 2 Nebraska players were following Dickinson around like he had a keg of beer ready.  I also think Mike Smith is getting the hang of running the team, although he has more to learn.  One TO in the second half was his (I think) fault but wasn't his fault in that he anticipated a cutter and the cutter didn't cut as he should have. A growing team.   Yet Michigan was up by two.  

Hard charge for a top 4 seed…

Hard charge for a top 4 seed in the conference?!  How about a hard charge for a top 4 seed in the NCAA! Really.  They have the playres, but they haven't played enough together to always look smooth.   Despite too many TOs, Mike Smith can play point guard.  Same with Dickinson at center. Wagner is starting to play offensive ball again.  We need to adjust our expectations, although the league is tough.

After one game, it seems…

After one game, it seems like Smith & Hunter would outscore the Simpson & Teske almost every night.  I also like Hunter's potential on defense, but at the moment I don't see how Smith can replace Simpson's defense.  We will have to wait to see how all the playmaking develops on this team before making any judgments about that quality. 

There's nothing like snark…

There's nothing like snark on your favorite team's blogsite.  ;-).   I'll root for Harbaugh & co. until they're no longer Michigan coaches and won't worry about when that happens.  There's plenty of beer in the house.

Athleticism often changes a…

Athleticism often changes a lot with a college weight program, especially with a young man who is 6 foot 8 and maybe 200 lbs tops.  He'll be a star.

With respect to Shea, he was…

With respect to Shea, he was an above-average QB that lacked something when playing elite teams.  We don't know about Milton or McNamara, but the bar is just not that high.  A solid, game manager QB that makes the right decisions would be an improvement imo.  

Michigan will rarely out…

Michigan will rarely out recruit OSU because it requires players to show up to classes in non-pandemic years.  Solid recruiting plus strong development that leads to several stars, including at QB, will lead to victories! 

There will be plenty of YAC…

There will be plenty of YAC after a Milton completion--the force of the ball alone will push a receiver 5 yards downfield.  ;-)

Thank you for all your hard…

Thank you for all your hard work.  This was very interesting to me because it brought back names and player's faces. I wonder if you've ever run an analysis of the sites by how often they're an outlier and how often they've been right as an outlier through the years.  Are there regional differences?  Service differences?  The obvious point is to evaluate which service is most predictive.  it seems you must have done so or something similar based on your excellent comments.

Every WR, even the 6 foot…

Every WR, even the 6 foot plus ones, have speed in spacer now.  I can't wait!  Thanks for keeping our withdrawal symptoms down. 

Xavier Worthy has jumped…

Xavier Worthy has jumped from 3 stars to a top 100 player in one rating service without one additional game being played or camp attended.  Some of that is the time (coronavirus), some of it is the difficulty of task and limitations of resources, and some of it is just plain dumb luck.  Nonetheless, it's wonderful to see a young person's hard work pay off in a fairly trivial way.  I am sure that once he reaches the field, it will pay off in much bigger ways for him and Michigan.

Congrats to Trey for his…

Congrats to Trey for his hard work and perseverance!

Speculating about why one…

Speculating about why one player receives four stars and another five is a fool's game, especially for a junior that didn't play a senior season.  But didn't you, Brian, write that almost everybody evaluates the players as much on their pro potential as their college potential?  I don't care about the pros.  Harbaugh and the new OC are bringing M football into the twenty-first century without cheating and by recruiting solid young people.  What more can you ask? Except beat OSU of course.

Great comment!  There's no…

Great comment!  There's no way to know if he's done growing at age 17.  If he reaches a true 6 foot two or three, he's a. five-star prospect.  If he stays at whatever size he is, he's got a great chance to be a star in college.  His chances in the NBA would be proportionately smaller, but it's been done.  As far as his shot, who knows.  It looks like he might become a shooter with good coaching.

Thanks for the update, and…

Thanks for the update, and as to be expected, there's not a lot of news.  This was to be expected.  I don't quite understand why people are penciling in McCaffrey so quickly.  He hasn't proven anything other than he was more ready last year than Milton.  Not nothing, but not much either.  It is a lot different than when the last year's starting quarterback comes back to play.

Projecting OL is a dicey…

Projecting OL is a dicey business, even when they play against quality competition, but any who has a decent chance of becoming Godzilla if a win as far as I'm concerned. 

 

You convinced me long ago…

You convinced me long ago that rankings are often dubious, and I try to pay as little attention to their rankings as possible and as much as possible to your rankings.  I also don't much care about what the NFL thinks about a college player except as it reflects on their college play, which it does to some extent.  McGregor needs coaching but looks like a winner in college.  Thanks for the great analysis!

I'm a believer in hard work,…

I'm a believer in hard work, and I think he could become a starter if they can improve his obvious quickness-agility issues with good coaching.  We will have to see, but if Duncan could work his way to the NBA, then this kid can too.  He'd have to improve his shot, of course, but then that seems coachable too.  

Same thing happens in…

Same thing happens in basketball, but I fell it's more meaningful there.  Savage has physical tools and the right attitude already.  Maybe he won't be a superstar, but maybe he will.  In all events, he's very likely to have a productive football career under the tutelage of coaches he care about him as a person.  Go Blue!

The injury set McCafferty…

The injury set McCafferty back some, and Milton made a big jump from the previous year.  So it's a perception that Milton has a higher ceiling in large part, especially as there were so few snaps involved.  Don't know who will win the competition between them.  Don't who should play QB next year. Probably not JJ, but it seems as if Michigan is putting together QB depth.

The injury set McCafferty…

The injury set McCafferty back some, and Milton made a big jump from the previous year.  So it's a perception that Milton has a higher ceiling in large part, especially as there were so few snaps involved.  Don't know who will win the competition between them.  Don't who should play QB next year. Probably not JJ, but it seems as if Michigan is putting together QB depth.

Welcome, Mr. Hill-Green.  As…

Welcome, Mr. Hill-Green.  As Donn has apparently seen him the most, I'll go with his "size and moves with fluidity inside the box. His strength is nearly college-ready. He diagnoses plays and reacts quickly. … athletic and changed direction well."  That's a potential starter. Who cares what he did his junior year if he showed major improvement during his senior year?  At least, I don't.

Thanks!  To me, he looks…

Thanks!  To me, he looks like someone who might surprise if he changes his body to become more athletic as well as works on his game.  The wide spread in evaluations just shows how subjective the process is for most players except for a few stars.  He's not one in high school, and I doubt he will be one in the pros, but he might be in college.

He looks fine to me, and I…

He looks fine to me, and I trust the coaches.  Not every 5 star turns out to be a star (we know this too well), and not every 3 star turns out to be a dud even as a pro.  He looks fluid and willing to work.  Thank you for coming to Michigan, Mr. Dixion!

Scouting is highly dependent…

Scouting is highly dependent on information.  Somebody who wasn't being scouted for whatever reason usually has a ways to go.  If Barnes had a great senior year, he would have been much higher.

Thanks!  Welcome, Barnes!  …

Thanks!  Welcome, Barnes!   He seems to have a lot more promise to me based on even flimsier evidence than usual.  Charles was fabulous, especially on defense, but he was an average shooter.  Based on his numbers and form, Barnes looks like he can shoot. 

So exactly how many top 100…

So exactly how many top 100 recruits in their sophomore year make it to the NFL?  Somebody has got to have done a statistical study on this? Right?  As far as Somerville, welcome!  

 

 

So exactly how many top 100…

So exactly how many top 100 recruits in their sophomore year make it to the NFL?  Somebody has got to have done a statistical study on this? Right?  As far as Somerville, welcome!  

 

 

Another great article. …

Another great article.  Thanks.  The most exciting hype for me is that he can backpedal and cover better than several former Wolverine stars could at the high school level.  This would give him more versatility and help when we face teams like OSU with great recievers and QBs.  

Great job!  But it's not…

Great job!  But it's not that tough.  Those evaluating players for rating services (usually) don't lose their jobs if they bring in the wrong players, but coaches do.  Hence coaches should do a better job of predicting player success.  They also have a lot more information than rating services, who have limited resources and must rely on often dubious sources.  That doesn't mean they are bad, but it means our off-season diversion of comparing recruiting classes has little meaning beyond the obvious.  Certain schools are recruiting players who are more likely to succeed at the college and pro level than UM; that is, players in the top 200 who are well-scouted.  After that, it's a free for all that depends on the skill of the staff.  And I agree 100%, Michigan is-was one great QB away from beating OSU.  Not every year, our defense has consistently had an exploitable weakness except for the OT game, but 2 wins were possible. Go Blue!

Great job!  But it's not…

Great job!  But it's not that tough.  Those evaluating players for rating services (usually) don't lose their jobs if they bring in the wrong players, but coaches do.  Hence coaches should do a better job of predicting player success.  They also have a lot more information than rating services, who have limited resources and must rely on often dubious sources.  That doesn't mean they are bad, but it means our off-season diversion of comparing recruiting classes has little meaning beyond the obvious.  Certain schools are recruiting players who are more likely to succeed at the college and pro level than UM; that is, players in the top 200 who are well-scouted.  After that, it's a free for all that depends on the skill of the staff.  And I agree 100%, Michigan is-was one great QB away from beating OSU.  Not every year, our defense has consistently had an exploitable weakness except for the OT game, but 2 wins were possible. Go Blue!

Down here in NC some…

Down here in NC some prospects don't play that much at Duke and then go pro their first year.  I think it happens at Kentucky too.  If they can get a guaranteed contract, the choice isn't that hard if you're poor or even if you're not.

 

Absolutely right; there are…

Absolutely right; there are players that have the right physical tools, dominated at a lot of camps, and played well against good competition.  They're the 50-60, and they hit a high rate.  The other prospect ratings depend on projection and that depends on scouting.  Bounds seems to have gone to camps and attracted notice, so that's good, but he stayed "thin" and didn't concentrate on football.  The scouts just shrugged their shoulders.  He looks a star to me.

Thanks for your efforts to…

Thanks for your efforts to keep the old-folks up-to-date on new football schemes.  I admit to great skepticism about "positionless" defensive football.  It seems to me that what's happening is that bigger people usually play along the line, in-between size players in between, and smaller players in the backfield.  They are being asked to different and more than previous generations because the offenses have become increasingly diverse, sophisticated, and above all, able to pass well even in college   The change in duties requires a change in athletic profiles and skills.  It also changes who is on the field.  That a big change, but whether it should be called positionless, I don't know.

I agree that revenue from a…

I agree that revenue from a few rows of seats is probably more than made up by higher television revenues and ticket prices from improving the game on both the pro and college level.  But there is a problem in a sport that requires all playing areas to be the same (unlike baseball for example).  Most major basketball arenas can make the change with little or difficulty, but a few might not.  For example,  Duke basketball arena (Cameron).  The farther you get away from the major colleges, the more colleges will have a legiitmate financial reason to balk. 

I agree that revenue from a…

I agree that revenue from a few rows of seats is probably more than made up by higher television revenues and ticket prices from improving the game on both the pro and college level.  But there is a problem in a sport that requires all playing areas to be the same (unlike baseball for example).  Most major basketball arenas can make the change with little or difficulty, but a few might not.  For example,  Duke basketball arena (Cameron).  The farther you get away from the major colleges, the more colleges will have a legiitmate financial reason to balk. 

Too many recruits to rate…

Too many recruits to rate accurately or to even comment on.  My guess would be that Gak doesn't look as good over a whole game as he does on his highlights, although ESPN gives him a 4 star (80) without comment.  Duke and Kentucky don't seem to be knocking at his door either, so what gives?  Who knows?  Someone on this board has to?

With the exception of…

With the exception of Nesbitt, it seems to me that these players are ranked where they are because they need a college strenght and conditioning program.  I didn't see anything wrong with Nesbitt, and a lot to like.  A guy who works hard on his body in H.S. and still looks fluid is someone to go after as he's very likely to continue to work hard on his game.

Thanks for the great work! …

Thanks for the great work!  The G-League option is a good thing for players, but we won't know how it affects college recruiting for a while.  When colleges finally pay their players for their images, it oo will also change the dynamics of recruiting.  Having said all that, I would think Juwan has the coaching chops that will cause players to seriously consider Michigan as a developmental spot. 

 Thank you!  You do a…

 Thank you!  You do a fabulous job, and your defining your positions is an example of this.  Please accept what follows as the ramblings of a former lawyer (maybe made before!) and not a criticism.  I would just geenrally state that competent shooting is a requirement at all positions and plus shooting a desired quality.  This is true at every position in today's basketball, isn't it?  In particular, even point guards need to shoot competently. Gloriously,  Z played with that requirement at times during his career, but he was the exception that proves the rule.  Imagine if he'd hit 40% of his open 3s!  Players either come up to that standard at the time they're recruited or not. Thanks again.

Wow!  You are thorough! …

Wow!  You are thorough!  Thank you and welcome to Mr. McBurrows. As far as the panic mode, I'm hanging loose until all the recruiting is done.  If all M's defense gets is 3*, then something's happened--or rather not happening because that hasn't been the case before.  More turmoil will follow.  M can't compete with elite offenses with a roster full of 3* even if a few of them turn into diamonds.  The M offense would have to score a TD every time down the field.

 

I don't understand the…

I don't understand the negativity from Brian on this particular player if he has a number of offers from top-end programs.  Admittedly some might never have become a reality, but that's the best information you can get on a player.   Coaches lose their jobs if they don't recruit the quality of players they need to succeed, unlike pundits and rating services.  There's also an obvious explanation for a big change in evaluation: he's a teenager. 

The best review would have been incomplete but probably promising if Brian believed McBurrows received those offers.  if not, then a statement that he--Brian--was skeptical and why would have helped me, at least.