Hot Take #1: Cade McNamara is Going to Improve A Lot Moving Forward

All we can do is start Cade over his 4 years of his eligibility and hope for the best.  This is not Ohio State or Oklahoma .... what other option is there .... freshman 5-stars cannot play as freshman an should not leapfrog someone who was here first. 

Hope you are right.  Fingers crossed.  We have as good a shot at a Big10 Championship at this point in the season as the other 4 leading teams in the B10 this year.  Whichever team improves the most down the stretch is likely to win it. 

Cade is fine. However, JJ is going to take over as some point. It could be this year or next year but it’s going to happen. And it needs to happen because the best teams in college football have elite QBs. JJ is getting snaps because he’s taking the QB1 job soon. 

In order to have an educated opinion on the Cade vs JJ dilemma, I would have to be able to witness practice and film breakdowns. I have no idea how to assess JJ's presnap reads and total grasp of the offense. I assume the comfort level is not quite where it needs to be yet. The coaches will have a lot of time to teach and assess the next two weeks, so just let it all play out. We don't know shit.

I don’t think he gets much better than he is now. He strikes me as a safe pick QB who has a high floor and low ceiling. And that’s ok - not every QB needs to be an insane freak athlete to be successful.

However, I’m excited about JJ and the idea of him being QB one day. 

I think an important factor is being left out of the JJ v Cade discussion. One of the factors in JJ's favor is supposedly Cade's inability to put the team on his back and win a game "single handedly". Other than specific game situations, mostly we're down multiple scores, I see very little evidence this is something our coach is interested in.

Cade has wins at Madison and at Lincoln, I don't believe any other Michigan QB can say that.

Or be overtaken by McCarthy. Another hot take. 

Ok. Just don't make anymore jinx threads during a game... okay? 

-Erick All appears to be gaining more and more confidence by the week.

Underrated comment.  All had a great game against NU.  Didn't drop the ball and took some hits.  Loved it.

Cade is our guy for now and I doubt that changes this year.

He has done somethings well, avoiding sacks and turnovers. He's a keen competitor and outside of the Rutgers game seems to wait to deliver the ball. I hope he's playing to win and as opposed to not making mistakes. Harbaugh has been accused of putting too much pressure on QB's in the past.

We know what he is as a runner so he can't be faulted for that.

But his downfield passing is not where it should be,

From PFF

Quarterback Cade McNamara completed only eight passes over five yards downfield while tossing seven quarterback-fault incompletions on those same pass attempts. He had more than three times as many negatively graded throws as positively graded ones en route to a passing grade in the 40s upon first review. 

He's got to get better. Even the pass to Sainristil required a circus catch. A well thrown ball and he walks into the endzone. That throw cost 4 points.

Some of it stems from mechanics. Hopefully he can take the bye week and the Northwestern game to polish the mechanics and practice his down field timing because if he doesn't we won't beat challenging opponents.

I agree with a lot of this.  At least against Nebraska, though, I thought the receivers were being held back by Cade.  Against Wisconsin I thought the reverse was true.  But there were 5-6 throws (big plays, two of which were likely TD's) where I thought the receiver did their job in terms of creating separation and Cade simply didn't hit a difficult but open pass.  

A lot of people criticized Daylen for not high pointing a deep jump ball early in the game, but if you look at the replay he had two steps on the defender. He was likely expecting the ball to be thrown in front of him; having to come back for that is really tough.  Roman Wilson did it but it's not something you can rely on.  

There were a couple of other overthrows were, again, we aren't talking about Desean Jackson running 10 yards behind the DB but the receivers had succeeded in beating the defender and giving a makeable window.  The one time he did have a receiver who was that open he took Sainristil off his feet.

Even the Cornelius drop in the seam for a TD...on second viewing Cade could have put the ball a bit further away from the defender (on the other side of CJ).  That is nitpicking, and CJ should come down with it (and give credit to the Nebraska DB) but Cade's throw wasn't quite perfect.

etOverall, I think I"m here: Cade's best skills are pre-snap reads and avoiding sacks by getting rid of the ball early.  HIs accuracy is solid, but not great.  If he had truly great accuracy I wouldn't care about the arm strength.  But without having the arm to make all the throws and without perfect footwork mechanics, it makes him an average player.

Now, for this offense, an average player who doesn't take negative yardage plays is very good.  Gattis has done a good job of scheming open plays: if we can get 5-6 opportunities for deep throws a game and Cade can hit 2-3, that's enough to open up the running game.  And this is preferable to a QB who might hit one more but would also take multiple sacks and/or turnovers.  

So I think Cade is a solid QB for this team and if McCarthy cannot yet avoid these mistakes I get why he's not starting.  But I don't think this is how we can keep up with an offense like Ohio State.  A fully realized McCarthy who can avoid mistakes and make the throws Cade can't though?  Combined with a year older Wilson, possibly Ronnie Bell, a sophomore Andrel Anthony, AJ Henning, Erick All...I think next year's the year.  

For now I'll take 9-3 or 10-2 with a creative game plan that keeps us competitive against OSU until the 4th.  

I remember a few years ago when in the championship game Saban pulled Jalen Hurts (who was playing fine) and put in true freshman Tua.   That decision won them the national championship.  If McNamara continues playing like he has and doesn't improve I wouldn't be surprised to see JJ start against Maryland if UM is undefeated at that point.  

Cade probably is the best QB to start right now. He is the safe choice. In a season where Harbaugh started on the hot seat, not taking any win for granted is at a premium. 

Its not the same as Riley at Oklahoma who has build up good will and the confidence and approval of alumni and the fan base.

All that being said, Michigan is not going to beat OSU with Cade McNamara at QB. 

Will Michigan lose to OSU no matter what, probably, but you can't trot that guy out there and expect to be competitive. Cade is a lot closer to Nick Sheridan than he is Brian Griese or Wilton Speight. 

If beating OSU is truly the goal then now is the time to make the switch.

OSU turned the rivalry by better QB play. Michigan cannot play conservative game management football and think the results will change. It will be another 50 something to 20 something affair. 

I do think the WRs deserve a share of the blame here. They aren't bad, but they aren't really making a lot of "catches above replacement". A great WR can really elevate the play of a young decent-but-not-great QB (which is what Cade is) - better routes, better adjustment to balls that are thrown a little off, bigger catching radius, and better performance on contested catches.  

Replace Baldwin with Braylon and All with Butt, and I bet no one is complaining about the passing game. Right now we have a bunch of fast guys, but no great receivers (to be fair, they are young/inexperienced too). 

So Cade will get better because his receivers will get better? That seems to be the general point of this "Hot Take."

Certainly better receivers help a QB but that seems like kind of an odd take here. If the point is meant to be Cade will be better shouldn't the bullets be ways you think he'll improve? 

Also, your point about "QBs tend to improve over the course of their careers" isn't one I'd agree with. Some certainly do and some definitely don't. Year 2 Speight and Year 2 Shea both were regressions. I don't think we would say O'Korn improved over his time at UM. I didn't see much in the way of improvement with Milton either. If we want to look around the the country this year I can point to a lot of players that are worse this year than last (Mertz, Penix, Spencer Rattler at OU...). 

Would love to see Cade have a monster second half of the season but I think a lot of that will be on his midrange accuracy and ability to better handle the RPO stuff. 

The best way to assess Cade is measure him against the better B1G teams. Topping the list of best QBs would be CJ Stroud. He hits his receivers in stride, they of course catch those passes. Maybe a tie would be Martinez and Clifford. They too can throw downfield and are mobile. Then there's Thorne, he sure lit it up last week at Rutgers as he hit his receivers in stride and made it look easy.

To round out the Top 5, hard to say. Tagovialoa has stubbled lately, the IA QB does not overwhelm with is playmaking ability. Mertz is performing below expectations. Pennix has been injured too much and not as he was the previous two seasons. Where does this leave Cade? He could be a weak 5th best QB in the B1G and I'm sure I am missing some other QB in conference.

What I'd like to see Cade do is make those kind of plays with much more consistency as those aforementioned Top 4 QBs are doing. The next two games, NW and MI State will tell us whether or not Cade is even capable of being that good.

I am hoping Cade can make that progress because the best of the best teams have that explosive QB play. Something this Michigan program has been lacking over the years.

Well, we have two weeks (NW will be a do whatever we want O game) to evaluate and self-scout our first 6 games. I’m extremely interested to see what our coaching staff changed and/or tweaks on our O based on their analysis.  It’ll tell us a lot about them, their ability to teach, and our player’s ability to grow and learn.  

Repetition over the next 3 weeks will be crucial for the passing game.  This is a great time for the bye week to come and Northwestern is just terrible this year.  

I would like to see the passing game more against NW just because practice speed is just different then game speed. 

The next 3 weeks leading up to MSU should give Cade and the receivers lots of time to work together.  With not worrying about a game this week they can really work on their timing together.  

All I know is that this is Michigan, and you NEVER start a younger QB over an established leader. That's just stupid talk. Have we all forgotten 1995 when sophomore Scott Dreisbach was given the reins over junior Brian Griese??! Never again!

Cade is going to have to improve a lot, and quickly. If he doesn't, we could lose several games. And JJ McCarthy could be starting. I mean, this is all pretty obvious, but

• He has to be able to do a minimal RPO. The fact that he can't run forward more than a yard or two is frustrating and disgusting. Tom Brady is no speed demon, but he manages to take runs every now and then when the yards are available. (Ok, you shouldn't compare the GOAT to anyone, but the point of comparison is foot speed.)
• He has to hit receivers in stride, and have more accuracy. I'll wait for Seth's UFR, but both with long passes and outs, I see way too many passes that go beyond the receiver, or are practically in the dirt.
• As has been said by Brian et al, he isn't being helped a lot by a number of receivers. It is impossible to completely gauge the impact of Bell's injury. But there are too many catchable balls that have been dropped.