27 Tickets To Team 138: Pre-Bowl Edition
What is this? Folks who cover the USMNT drop lists like this projecting the 23 guys who end up on the next World Cup team. I have appropriated it. Regarding the number of tickets: 22 starters on offense and defense + 2 kickers + nickelback + FLEX TE + SLOT.
PREVIOUSLY: 137 post-spring.
PACK YOUR BAGS
1. 3TECH Maurice Hurst, Sr.* [Last time: NR]
Hurst's burst takes him from off the board (which could be considered worst) to first. Absence more circumstance than talent; Hurst produced in bunches. Tracking towards high NFL draft pick as an explosive interior pass rusher. "Get in my belly" TFL celebration is a winner.
2. C Mason Cole, Sr. [Last time: 3]
Despite somewhat disappointing year at C a holy lock to be somewhere on the line. Could be anywhere; will be somewhere. Bet here is M will try to keep him at C for continuity and line calls, which he seems to be clearly the best option for. Goal for next year: get stronger, get more push, be more of a factor against 3-4 NTs, get drafted in the middle rounds.
3. SDE Rashan Gary, So. [Last time: NR]
Omar comin', except his name is Rashan and he is not little. Like Hurst, stuck behind future pros in 2016. Still flashed freaky ability; year two should be a breakout year so enormous it shatters windows across the Midwest. #1 overall prospects are in fact guarantees, and Gary showed plenty to indicate he would not be an exception.
4. ILB Mike McCray, Sr* [Last time: 21]
Sole returning member of the front seven had some edge issues last year. Tackling in space was an Area For Improvement, as they say. Positives outweighed negatives, though, as McCray was an outstanding blitzer and reliably in the place he was supposed to be. Probably moves to MLB to help mitigate those edge problems.
5. SLOT Grant Perry, Jr. [Last time: 16]
Route artisan figures to have role explode as he hits upperclass years and he becomes the primary safety blanket. Best game against OSU when Butt was doubled and tripled all game, and he came through with a productive day. Red-zone weapon will dust some guys, a la Dileo. Don't sleep on him as an outside guy, either. He might play both spots as Michigan decides he's one of their best two.
6. OG Ben Bredeson, So. [Last time: NR]
Swing lineman regarded as Cole 2.0 had Cole's freshman season, a bit delayed. Barely lost LT job to Newsome; jetted past the entire roster to start once Newsome went down. Like Cole, Things could have gone better; they could have gone worse. Like Cole, position uncertain but place amongst the starters absolutely not. Like Cole. Like. Cole. LIKE COLE DO YOU GET IT.
UNLESS SOMETHING STRANGE HAPPENS
7. QB Wilton Speight, Jr* [Last time: NR]
On the cusp of a lock after a 63%, 8.1 YPA, 17-5 TD-INT sophomore year; sometimes-erratic play leaves a tiny crack for Brandon Peters. Emphasis on "tiny." Impressive pocket presence, plus—but not perfect—accuracy, and increasing command of the offense will be tough to compete with. If he improves like Harbaugh quarterbacks always do you're looking at an All Big Ten player. (And an ugly shirt.)
8. FS Tyree Kinnel, Jr. [Last time: NR]
Got more playing time last year than any other secondary backup, and played well. Defense did not miss a beat when he was in for extended periods. Used as a dimeback, mostly, for a four-safety look. Recruiting rep suggests he fits what Brown wants in his safeties—man coverage capable hitters. Old-ass-looking-man game strong. M needs to fill that role w/ Hill to the NFL.
9. WDE Chase Winovich, Jr.* [Last time: 27]
Ebullient pass rusher produced five sacks despite playing time often measured in single-digit snaps. Did most of his damage with a serious edge rush and relentless approach. This had downsides. Tendency towards wild overpursuit needs to get tamped down; additional weight necessary; on track to be Jake Ryan as a WDE.
10. NT Bryan Mone, Jr.* [Last time: NR]
Still trying to scale hype mountain; unclear how badly he was affected by injury last year. Big time third down stuff against OSU hints at promise, and there's very little behind him that isn't coming in this recruiting class. Could be third best player on line, could be third best lineman in conference. One thing's for sure: Bryan Mone has the meats.
11. ILB Devin Bush, So. [Last time: NR]
Got meaningful playing time when starters were dinged, making a few plays along the way. Fast and short thumper well suited to the vertical attacking Brown wants from his linebackers. NFL player and coach's son should be ready to hit the ground running as a starter. Brings a much-needed infusion of dreads to the starting lineup. Has no idea how to draw a Wolverine.
12. K Quinn Nordin, Fr.* [Last time: NR]
#1 kicker in the country, which means he'll either be an Aguayo or go 0/20 before returning to his home planet. 2/3(!!!) on field goals as a senior in HS. Data basically nonexistent outside of camps, where he killed it. Committed to Penn State w/ ridiculous video, which we 1000% approve of.
FAIRLY SAFE BET
13. CB Jeremy Clark, Sr.* [Last time: NR]
Main uncertainty here is sixth-year eligibility. If eligible very strong bet to start, as 6'4" corners are a rare treasure. No shame in losing out to future NFLer Channing Stribling last year and was strong in the first three games with Lewis out. Better in run support than Stribling; thought most of the completions on him in 2015 were bad luck. Brings experience that the rest of the back four is largely devoid of.
14. OG Mike Onwenu, So. [Last time: NR]
You know Harbaugh is itching to roll out lines mostly comprised of 350-pound giants; Onwenu figures to be the first to come online. Played well in limited time a year ago, and has a long term future on O per his coach. Still kind of wonder if he's got the mobility to play as a pulling guard, but we'll see. Made of adamantium, or possibly degenerate neutrons. Likes grapes.
15. FLEX Ian Bunting, Jr.*[Last time: NR]
Ol' Skillet Hands did not have the breakout season many anticipated thanks in part to injury; with Jake Butt taking up a lot of targets and the second half of most games spent running the ball with huge leads there was not much opportunity. Should be plenty next year as Butt heads to the NFL. Decent blocker; retains monster receiving upside. Must look out behind him.
16. RB Chris Evans, So. [Last time: NR]
Quick-twitch athlete emerged into clear #2 behind Smith by season's end. Capable of nasty short-area jukes; doesn't break many tackles; home-run hitter. Receiving upside unexplored last year but will emerge as his career wears on. Will split snaps with Isaac, Higdon, and others in crowded backfield. Should be allowed to wear a helmet that has his hair on it.
17. WR Kekoa Crawford, So. [Last time: NR]
Emerged as clear #3 option on the outside thanks in large part to terrific blocking. Had one bad drop and one badass catch to go with some more routine events. Most X-shaped of the 2015 guys and slid in front of Hoke-era recruits immediately upon arrival. As a recruit, touted as a high polished player who could step in relatively quickly.
18. SS Khaleke Hudson, So. [Last time: NR]
Existence of mean ol' Josh Metellus has Hudson's spot somewhat in doubt but if you thought this space would bet against Hudson, you have not been paying attention. Blocked two punts in 2016 and had about as much garbage time as Metellus. If Hudson gets beat out here look for him at SAM or nickel.
19. TE Devin Asiasi, So. [Last time: NR]
This slot could easily read "pick a Kaiju." Both Asiasi and Wheatley will be a year stronger, abler, and meaner; one or both should break out into true stars. Asiasi gets the tentative nod here because he got a majority of Kaiju PT and did very well with it, repeatedly blowing LBs and DBs yards away from where they desired to be. Don't mess with his dad. For real.
20. FB/H-back Khalid Hill, Sr.* [Last time: 25]
If I had a Panda / I'd hammer in the morning / I'd hammer in the evening / but only in the endzone. Impact Fullback Khalid Hill specialized in two-for-one edge blocks, one yard touchdown runs, wide open flare routes, spectacular catches, and self-nicknaming that was so amazing people just ran with it.
IN A BATTLE
21. SAM Noah Furbush, Jr* [Last time: 26]
Peppers's backup last year, and well-liked by the coaches. But how does Furbush replace a safety? Because that's what Peppers is, a safety. Most Don Brown SAM top out at 215, and Furbush is much bigger than that. Wouldn't be surprised to see him move inside, or reprise his backup role behind a Hudson type.
22. WR Drake Harris, Jr.* [Last time: NR]
Anyone's guess who the second outside receiver is. Harris gets a tentative nod as he was repeatedly targeted downfield starting at about midseason. His only catch on those bombs was called back thanks to a fairly weak OPI call, but aside from that it was slick, and promising. People forget that he was an uber-hyped recruit with 2000 yards as a high school junior. Nice hamstring. Good hamstring.
23. CB Lavert Hill, So. [Last time: NR]
Eases ahead of David Long here thanks to late-season playing time; that may be artifact of opportunity to redshirt Long after a midseason injury. Jourdan Lewis 2.0 is the rep, and he had a couple of PBUs that hinted at his ability. Will be seriously pressed by Long and Ambry Thomas. 27 Tickets needs a bow tie, even a sloppy one.
24. NICKEL Brandon Watson [Last time: NR]
Watson got more PT than any other non-starting corner after the Clark injury, but he'll be pressed hard to keep that spot. Last year this was Peppers; this year it is a conventional third corner. This could be Metellus, as Brown added Kinnel when he needed an extra guy. This is a real classy section of 27 Tickets, you'll agree.
He's a punter, and he's on the roster. So I guess he'll probably punt, unless someone else does. Nordin a possibility, as he is reputed to have a big leg. Picture at left actually of Jordan Glasgow, because I couldn't leave that out. It's Jordan Glasgow wearing a bear shirt. I mean. Cumong.
26. OT Isaiah Wilson, Fr. [Last time: NR]
Unfortunate OL tradition to list a guy who's not even committed as a starter but the OT depth chart looks like tumbleweeds and Wilson is an immediate impact guy. Dude looks like a 30-year old All Pro. JBB is a possibility but after major struggles in pass pro knocked him out of the lineup I'm not feeling that.
27. OT Grant Newsome, Jr. [Last time: 19]
Devastating knee injury saw Newsome spend 38 days in the hospital afterwards. Long term prognosis much better than that would imply, but 2017 availability still very much in question. If fully healthy, starts at tackle. Worried chatter about his ability gave way to play that made you wonder what all the bother was about.
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TECHNICALLY NOT STARTERS BUT CLOSE ENOUGH
RB Drake Johnson—Michigan will apply for sixth year, but do they have the room?
RB Ty Isaac—spring hype petered out into decent play.
RB Karan Higdon—Impressed with his quick cuts and low pad level. Will continue to see snaps.
FB Henry Poggi—less dynamic Michigan fullback, and one who had some issues getting his hat on someone last year.
WR Eddie McDoom—MCDOOOOOOOOM
TE Tyrone Wheatley Jr.—developed his blocking late in the year, coin flip whether it was him or Asiasi.
C Patrick Kugler—most likely reconfiguration of line has Kugler drawing in at C and Cole going to a trouble spot.
CB David Long—going to be a very good player and should push to start. Coinflip w/ Hill.
PUSHING FROM BEHIND
QB Brandon Peters—first Harbaugh-selected QB on the roster comes with massive expectations.
QB John O'Korn—iffy Indiana outing was a win, at least.
RB Kareem Walker—academic redshirt out of the way and time to start displaying that talent.
RB Kingston Davis—some transfer chatter.
WR Nate Johnson—mean-ass slot receiver, if that's a thing. Golden Tate is ceiling.
WR Moe Ways—passed by Crawford and Harris. Getting late early.
TE Sean McKeon—did not redshirt for some reason grumble.
G David Dawson—Doesn't seem like it's happening.
T Juwann Bushell-Beatty—sixth OL after the Newsome injury so there's probably some chance, but played poorly.
ILB Elysee Mbem-Bosse—most likely ILB backup given roster.
SAM Josh Uche—Don Brown dude could be chaos generator.
SS Josh Metellus—spent second half of Rutgers game ending dudes.
WAITING THEIR TURN
QB Alex Malzone—not really in the race, it seems.
TE Nick Eubanks—Funchess 2.0
TE Zach Gentry—actually played WR for much of last year. Development will be fascinating.
C Jon Runyan Jr.—right bloodlines at least.
G Stephen Spanellis—road grader needs seasoning.
T Nolan Ulizio—some playing time he seemed iffy in.
SDE Lawrence Marshall—again disappeared when the season rolled around.
SDE Carlo Kemp—played for some damn reason
WDE Ron Johnson—hyped edge rusher could be Winovich's backup.
WDE Reuben Jones—worker popular with teammates.
NT Michael Dwumfour—ideally he's Hurst 2.0, but probably needs another year.
CB Keith Washington—did not find PT last year, will try again.
November 29th, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^
Interesting list.
But Malzone was a 2015 recruit. How is he a 3yr grad?
And why is Kareem Walker on this list? Academics still?
November 29th, 2016 at 10:57 PM ^
There are some interesting names on that list, to say the least.
November 29th, 2016 at 5:27 PM ^
If Hurst comes back, the DL will be real good next year. Still not sure why he didn't get more snaps this year. Asiasi is a stud. We saw his blocking this year but the dude can catch too. Before his career is over he'll be better than Butt. Drake Harris - athleticism and ball skills never a question - but if he doesn't show up to fall camp in the 205-210 lb range at a minimum, he won't be a factor next year. If he can make that happen, look out.
Overall it looks like we've got the talent to go 9-3 or even 10-2 next year if we are healthy. My concern is depth - even an off-the-charts recruiting class won't solve that for us.
November 29th, 2016 at 7:30 PM ^
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November 29th, 2016 at 5:50 PM ^
it took one year to get even with MSU, and two years to win
it took two years to get even with OSU, and (I think) it'll take three years to win
after that, it'll be time to roll and soon urban's heart won't be able to take it anymore
November 29th, 2016 at 7:06 PM ^
Damn Coach, you're really doubting your own team for next year, especially considering Michigan loses nearly every starting player and OSU should return just about everyone.
November 29th, 2016 at 5:52 PM ^
"most likely reconfiguration of line has Kugler drawing in at C"
I feel like we've been saying this for 4 years now.
November 29th, 2016 at 6:16 PM ^
with knowledge care to comment on why Kugler makes more sense at center than at guard?
November 30th, 2016 at 7:18 AM ^
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November 29th, 2016 at 6:43 PM ^
Any chance that David Long, seeing as he is reported to know the entire playbook for every position, makes a temporary transion to a ball hawking S while Clark, Watson, Hill, and Thomas hold the fort at CB?
November 29th, 2016 at 6:47 PM ^
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November 29th, 2016 at 7:15 PM ^
Was this your most accurate prediction ever? The only misses would be Speight over JOK and swapping Noah Furbush for someone else who got more PT as we rarely used a third true LB...Kinnel?
November 29th, 2016 at 7:43 PM ^
I'm as "doom and gloom" as they come but it's time to start thinking like a legit program again. There will be struggles with some new and younger player but that is without a doubt a top 10 team.
I hate the talk of "the year". That often does not work out as planned. I live in columbus and when they won the NC a few years back the response was "we don't even have to enjoy this because next year is "the year" and we will cruise to a NC". They didn't even make the big ten championship last year...
I'll be pissed if the offense isn't better next year. The defense will have some ups and downs but I also believe that has the talent to be a top 5-10 defense. Due to the crap we've been through we are all super pessimists and I get it...but Michigan is back and let's recognize the areas of concern but expect that we are in the hunt every year.
I'm extremely encouraged but what I see from a roster standpoint for next year.
November 29th, 2016 at 9:58 PM ^
The talk about this being "the year" is because we had a great collection of talent, and a lot of that talent is leaving. Look at how many names are on this list that are guys that weren't huge contributors this season. That's a lot of new guys to step up. Good coaching and good talent, yes, but not the same as what we had.
Seriously, every starting defensive player got some sort of all-B1G mention. And in Lewis and Peppers we had two generational players whose ability doesn't just come along every season. We had the DL of a lifetime. This isn't just an annually good defense, it's a defense of legend.
And most of the key guys that made it a defense of legend (Charlton, Glasgow, Wormley, Peppers, Lewis, plus quality contributors nearly everywhere else) are leaving.
Yeah, there's talent behind them. But it's young talent and not all talent pans out the way we think it should.
Next year's defense is going to take a step back. There's no way it cannot.
If Harbaugh can keep up the recruiting momentum (really wanted that win Saturday partly for this reason, and OSU isn't slowing down on its recruiting either) we'll be in position to be terrific every year in two years. But next year is a project.
November 30th, 2016 at 7:40 AM ^
I don't actually disagree with what you said. But there are also additions to next year and the biggest is what should be a game breaking, all world quarterback. I had not thought of this being "the year" because I thought the struggles at qb would be too much with a first year guy. I would except a leap forward next year at qb and on offense all around.
I can't argue with the defense but with the talent UM has I think "step back" shoudl be an overall #2 defense to an overall 8-12 defense. A step back for sure...but still a top defense.
November 29th, 2016 at 7:48 PM ^
Does Asiasi's dad have any eligibility remaining? If not, can we just cheat by pretending Devin plays both ways?
November 29th, 2016 at 9:44 PM ^
November 29th, 2016 at 8:34 PM ^
There should be a prescrition for how we need to behave to give us the best chance of keeping Jim around, and then we need to follow it precisely. i think every year will be VERY good if we keep our coach. What a future after the brandon/richrod/hoke mess crap. Go Blue!!
November 30th, 2016 at 12:03 AM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 12:33 PM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 1:40 PM ^
2016 Speight: 145.6 (#34 in country)
1991 Grbac: 161.7 (#3)
1992 Grbac: 150.2 (#1)
1993 Collins: 149.3 (#15)
1996 Griese: 156.6
1998 Dreisbach: 209.2
2000 Navarre: 147.2
2000 Henson: 152.7 (#5)
2010 Robinson: 149.6 (#21)
2012 Gardner: 161.7
Really though - you have to look at where they ranked comparative to their peers.
Speights 145.6 puts him about #34 in the country.
Grbac: #13(1990), #3(1991), #1 (1992)
Collins: #15 (1993), #7(1994)
Griese: #61(1995), #24(1997)
Dreisbach: #40 (1996)
Brady: #31 (1998), #18 (1999)
Henson: #5 (2000)
Navarre: #71 (2001), #63 (2002), #46 (2003)
Henne: #46(2004), #53(2005), #27(2006), #54 (2007)
Robinson: #21 (2010), #41 (2011)
Gardner: #31 (2013)
Rudock: #40 (2015)
November 30th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 1:56 PM ^
"He had a historically good season for a first-year starter."
At Michigan -
John Wangler, Todd Collins, Denard Robinson, Devin Gardner, and Drew Henson were pretty similar in QB rating as 1st year starters.
Nationally in 2016 -
Mike White (WKU), Mitch Trubisky (NC), Sam Darnold (USC), Jerod Evans (VT), Riley Ferguson (Memphis), Christian Chapman (SDSU), Trace McSorley (PSU), Josh Allen (Wyoming), Justin Herbert (Oregon), Austin Allen (Arkansas) - are 1st year starters with better QB rating.
...and Jalen Hurt is 0.1 behind Speight in QB rating, but rushed for 900 more yards.
November 30th, 2016 at 2:55 PM ^
December 1st, 2016 at 8:18 AM ^
but Speight was better in his first year than Collins and Gardner.
That is VERY arguable, he had a worse QB rating than both and was ranked lower in QB rating relative to his peers -
In first year as a starter:
Speight: 62.5% completions, 2375 yards, 17 TD, 6 INT, 145.6 rating, #34 QB rating
Collins: 63.9% completions, 2509 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT, 149.3 rating, #15 QB rating
Gardner: 60.3% completions, 2960 yards, 21 TD, 11 INT, 146.1 rating, #31 QB rating
November 30th, 2016 at 7:25 AM ^
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November 30th, 2016 at 8:23 AM ^
Great summary and fun reading thank Brian
November 30th, 2016 at 8:52 AM ^
So, to summarize the projections:
- QB: Wilton Speight
- RB: Chris Evans
- FB: Khalid Hill
- TE: Devin Asiasi
- Slot: Grant Perry
- WR: Kekoa Crawford
- WR: Drake Harris
- LT: Grant Newsome
- LG: Ben Bredeson
- C: Mason Cole
- RG: Mike Onwenu
- RT: Isaiah Wilson
- DE: Rashan Gary
- DT: Maurice Hurst
- DT: Bryan Mone
- DE: Chase Winovich
- LB: Mike McCray
- LB: Devin Bush
- Sam: Noah Furbush
- CB: Jeremy Clark
- S: Tyree Kinnel
- S: Khaleke Hudson
- CB: Lavert Hill
- Nickel: Brandon Watson
Honestly, if it turns out like that, I'm more hopeful than I thought I would be given the number of contributors that we're losing. We'll obviously be pretty thin (although talented) among the front seven, which is a concern. And there are a lot of unknowns where we'll be depending on guys who haven't seen the field a lot to step up. But with this talent, the sky's the limit.
November 30th, 2016 at 10:47 AM ^
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November 30th, 2016 at 2:54 PM ^
I'd be surprised if Khaleke Hudson didn't wind up as the SAM, given all the Peppers comparisons the coaches have been throwing around. Then, you just have Metellus be the strong safety and you'd be fine.
November 30th, 2016 at 12:20 PM ^
D-line depth (but not talent!) and O-line overall ability are my two concerns. Other than that my friend that is a stacked ass roster.
The d-line will be thinner but this was a historically deep d-line...you don't get "historic" things year after year. Next year's d-line shoudl be every bit as awesome though if some people step up to help with depth.
November 30th, 2016 at 8:54 AM ^
I think D line depth will be the biggest question next year. There will be a lot of new faces but I think, they'll be ok. Probably some dropoff though, around 9 wins.
Also, interesting note that K. Davis considering leaving already? Was he promised early playing time?
November 30th, 2016 at 12:24 PM ^
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