To add to this, I was mad about this narrative and compared the average SP+ scores for the first six opponents of USC, Penn State, Michigan and Georgia (i.e., teams who a'int played nobody):
*Georgia and Penn State each played an FCS team (UT Martin and Delaware, respectively), so I gave them an approximate analogous team based on Sagarin ratings (Akron and MTSU, respectively), meaning both the overages probably overstate Georgia and Penn State's difficulty of schedule by a little.
As you can see, the first half of Penn State's schedule was easier on both offense and defense. There are obviously problems with using straight mean, but is Penn State really going to hang their hat on a home game versus a 44th ranked West Virginia?
Tier III: Andrel Anthony Level aka Borderline starter who should get more minutes because I love him like a son
11. Matt Turner (GK, Arsenal) - Injured now but is the Cade McNamara of our team in that he has a high floor and when he plays in games above freezing, he's awesome. But he's a backup at Arsenal instead of starting in MLS, so there's worry that he will regress. He's also injured now.
12. Ricardo Pepe (ST, Augsburg) - 19 year old "next big thing" striker who has spent four months looking like every American striker who gets called the next big thing. Huge upside though.
13. Brendon Aaronson (LW, RB Salzburg) - He was a bona fide starter before others passed him. He's still a gingy God who is young and shows flashes. He could seriously break out.
14. Luca de al Torre (CM, Heracles) - a high upside midfielder backup who, like Musah, is super fun to watch and everywhere, except he's still a little too young. However, he's a pros pro at being the ref worker and the guy who breaks up fights.
15. Kellyn Acosta (CDM, Colorado) - my favorite player. A seasoned vet (26) that will be Adams' backup, but also our best player for (1) set pieces and (2) talking shit and messing with the other team. He is what American soccer is supposed to be: an asshole who takes free kicks.
16. Jesus Ferreira (ST, Dallas) - To steal from Doyle, he's a striker who does everything well BUT scoring goals. He's great, but I don't think you go that far with him starting.
17. Chris Richards (CB, Hoffenheim) - The number three among blissfully boring centerbacks. I'll let someone else talk about him.
18. DeAndre Yedlin (RB, Miami) - The only player from the 2014 WC and a perfect backup to Dest. He's like a 4 star who you feel awesome about against Indiana and meh about against OSU.
19. Paul Arriola (Winger, Dallas) - E from Entourage. He's short, nobody who doesn't watch thinks he's good. Me citing him in this position will make you think less of me. And yet, every time he plays, it works out in the end.
20. Shaq Moore (RB, Tenerife) - Remember every Michigan third string center who becomes a legend for putting in 20 passable minutes (see e.g. Faulds), and you overrate him forever due to irrational love? Anyway, Shaq Moore is better than Zac Steffen and Reggie Cannon.
Tier IV: Donovan Jeter Tier aka I'm running out of time and space for this.
21-27. Cannon, Horvath, Dike, Zardes, Scalley, Bello, Busio, - They're all really good. Read more about them!
Tier V: Doghouse
28. Zac Steffen (GK, Man City) - Remember in 2018 when Devin Gil had much worse UFR grades than Josh Ross but started anyway because he looked better in practice? That's our starting goalie who our coach is committed to but was statistically the second worst goalie in all of qualifying. He's got tools though!
29. John Brooks (CB, Wolfsburg) - Longtime starter who had the upside but was too "adventurous" (like a highly rated FS who doesn't do the FS boring thing). He doesn't even get invited to camp now, which is a shame because apparently, he's really turning it around.
There's others that I'm missing, but that's the gist more or less.
This is pretty much the definitive rundown to your question, but I will add a couple of things:
1) I never really liked Stars and Stripes FC or a lot of other coverage, but Matt Doyle (the "Armchair Analyst") at mlssoccer.com has the best read on the USMNT from an analytical perspective, and Grant Wahl has the best insider coverage for interviews/team details/etc. I've only recently gotten into Scuffed, but they are the center of the non-toxic USMNT fan's universe. In my opinion, those are the best places to start.
2) For the initiated, I think it might be helpful to add vibes and tiers of players:
Tier I: JJ McCarthy Level aka the "Athletes who are slightly older than children into which we invest all of our hopes and dreams" Tier
1. Weston McKinnie (CM, Juventus) - Everything you want in a saucy, hardworking and direct midfielder who tells the most famous Italian soccer player ever that he puts ranch in pasta and thinks espressos are gross.
2. Tyler Adams (CDM, RB Liepzig) - Our most important player by far. He does EVERYTHING and is a big reason our defense has been secretly awesome. He covers for everyone, doesn't talk much and is a constant steadying presence. Seth will have a LB comp from 1994 that I can't think of.
3. Puli (LW, Chelsea) - You should have an opinion on him already.
4. Sergino Dest (RB, Barcelona) - Our most technically skilled player, and one who (unlike Adams, Puli, Weah and Gio) regularly gets playing time on Barcelona. He's not pugnacious, but he's the guy with the best highlights.
5. Gio Reyna (RW, Borussia) - Son of a USMNT legend who seems like he would be a composed coaches son, but is actually our most fun player who does all the tricks and gets into all the fights. He broke a Panamanian players ankles on Sunday and then stopped to yell at him to "get up pussy" so that fans nearby could hear (82' for those interested).
6. Tim Weah (RW, Lille) - Son of the best African player ever, who was our most consistent attacking presence. We'll have to figure out how to get Gio, Weah, and Puli to play together, but he's such a treasure as a creator of chances.
Tier II: Cade McNamara Level aka the "Adults in the Room" even if they are really children
7. Walker Zimmerman (CB, Nashville) - The first centerback I can remember who makes me feel safe at night, even more than Gooch, and a viking from Atlanta.
8. Antonee "Jedi" Robinson (LB, Fulham) - He's really good and friends with all the best players. Fun to watch too. No jokes to tell.
9. Yunus Musah (CM, Valencia) - He's 19 and much more of an excitable bug who probably belongs in Tier I, and he's been ridiculously consistent and fun to watch. This is too low for him and he's an absolute joy, but I'm not editing this.
10. Miles Robinson (CB, Atlanta) - The other half of a blissfully boring centerback duo. I don't know enough about specific skills, but he seems slightly more likely to be subbed out or dropped for a game.
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To add to this, I was mad about this narrative and compared the average SP+ scores for the first six opponents of USC, Penn State, Michigan and Georgia (i.e., teams who a'int played nobody):
*Georgia and Penn State each played an FCS team (UT Martin and Delaware, respectively), so I gave them an approximate analogous team based on Sagarin ratings (Akron and MTSU, respectively), meaning both the overages probably overstate Georgia and Penn State's difficulty of schedule by a little.
As you can see, the first half of Penn State's schedule was easier on both offense and defense. There are obviously problems with using straight mean, but is Penn State really going to hang their hat on a home game versus a 44th ranked West Virginia?
Okay, but when are we getting a UFR of the Spring Game?
(In all seriousness, congrats and take a load off!)
Tier III: Andrel Anthony Level aka Borderline starter who should get more minutes because I love him like a son
11. Matt Turner (GK, Arsenal) - Injured now but is the Cade McNamara of our team in that he has a high floor and when he plays in games above freezing, he's awesome. But he's a backup at Arsenal instead of starting in MLS, so there's worry that he will regress. He's also injured now.
12. Ricardo Pepe (ST, Augsburg) - 19 year old "next big thing" striker who has spent four months looking like every American striker who gets called the next big thing. Huge upside though.
13. Brendon Aaronson (LW, RB Salzburg) - He was a bona fide starter before others passed him. He's still a gingy God who is young and shows flashes. He could seriously break out.
14. Luca de al Torre (CM, Heracles) - a high upside midfielder backup who, like Musah, is super fun to watch and everywhere, except he's still a little too young. However, he's a pros pro at being the ref worker and the guy who breaks up fights.
15. Kellyn Acosta (CDM, Colorado) - my favorite player. A seasoned vet (26) that will be Adams' backup, but also our best player for (1) set pieces and (2) talking shit and messing with the other team. He is what American soccer is supposed to be: an asshole who takes free kicks.
16. Jesus Ferreira (ST, Dallas) - To steal from Doyle, he's a striker who does everything well BUT scoring goals. He's great, but I don't think you go that far with him starting.
17. Chris Richards (CB, Hoffenheim) - The number three among blissfully boring centerbacks. I'll let someone else talk about him.
18. DeAndre Yedlin (RB, Miami) - The only player from the 2014 WC and a perfect backup to Dest. He's like a 4 star who you feel awesome about against Indiana and meh about against OSU.
19. Paul Arriola (Winger, Dallas) - E from Entourage. He's short, nobody who doesn't watch thinks he's good. Me citing him in this position will make you think less of me. And yet, every time he plays, it works out in the end.
20. Shaq Moore (RB, Tenerife) - Remember every Michigan third string center who becomes a legend for putting in 20 passable minutes (see e.g. Faulds), and you overrate him forever due to irrational love? Anyway, Shaq Moore is better than Zac Steffen and Reggie Cannon.
Tier IV: Donovan Jeter Tier aka I'm running out of time and space for this.
21-27. Cannon, Horvath, Dike, Zardes, Scalley, Bello, Busio, - They're all really good. Read more about them!
Tier V: Doghouse
28. Zac Steffen (GK, Man City) - Remember in 2018 when Devin Gil had much worse UFR grades than Josh Ross but started anyway because he looked better in practice? That's our starting goalie who our coach is committed to but was statistically the second worst goalie in all of qualifying. He's got tools though!
29. John Brooks (CB, Wolfsburg) - Longtime starter who had the upside but was too "adventurous" (like a highly rated FS who doesn't do the FS boring thing). He doesn't even get invited to camp now, which is a shame because apparently, he's really turning it around.
There's others that I'm missing, but that's the gist more or less.
This is pretty much the definitive rundown to your question, but I will add a couple of things:
1) I never really liked Stars and Stripes FC or a lot of other coverage, but Matt Doyle (the "Armchair Analyst") at mlssoccer.com has the best read on the USMNT from an analytical perspective, and Grant Wahl has the best insider coverage for interviews/team details/etc. I've only recently gotten into Scuffed, but they are the center of the non-toxic USMNT fan's universe. In my opinion, those are the best places to start.
2) For the initiated, I think it might be helpful to add vibes and tiers of players:
Tier I: JJ McCarthy Level aka the "Athletes who are slightly older than children into which we invest all of our hopes and dreams" Tier
1. Weston McKinnie (CM, Juventus) - Everything you want in a saucy, hardworking and direct midfielder who tells the most famous Italian soccer player ever that he puts ranch in pasta and thinks espressos are gross.
2. Tyler Adams (CDM, RB Liepzig) - Our most important player by far. He does EVERYTHING and is a big reason our defense has been secretly awesome. He covers for everyone, doesn't talk much and is a constant steadying presence. Seth will have a LB comp from 1994 that I can't think of.
3. Puli (LW, Chelsea) - You should have an opinion on him already.
4. Sergino Dest (RB, Barcelona) - Our most technically skilled player, and one who (unlike Adams, Puli, Weah and Gio) regularly gets playing time on Barcelona. He's not pugnacious, but he's the guy with the best highlights.
5. Gio Reyna (RW, Borussia) - Son of a USMNT legend who seems like he would be a composed coaches son, but is actually our most fun player who does all the tricks and gets into all the fights. He broke a Panamanian players ankles on Sunday and then stopped to yell at him to "get up pussy" so that fans nearby could hear (82' for those interested).
6. Tim Weah (RW, Lille) - Son of the best African player ever, who was our most consistent attacking presence. We'll have to figure out how to get Gio, Weah, and Puli to play together, but he's such a treasure as a creator of chances.
Tier II: Cade McNamara Level aka the "Adults in the Room" even if they are really children
7. Walker Zimmerman (CB, Nashville) - The first centerback I can remember who makes me feel safe at night, even more than Gooch, and a viking from Atlanta.
8. Antonee "Jedi" Robinson (LB, Fulham) - He's really good and friends with all the best players. Fun to watch too. No jokes to tell.
9. Yunus Musah (CM, Valencia) - He's 19 and much more of an excitable bug who probably belongs in Tier I, and he's been ridiculously consistent and fun to watch. This is too low for him and he's an absolute joy, but I'm not editing this.
10. Miles Robinson (CB, Atlanta) - The other half of a blissfully boring centerback duo. I don't know enough about specific skills, but he seems slightly more likely to be subbed out or dropped for a game.