New Vegas Betting Odds: Michigan 10.5 O/U Wins
MLive is reporting that a bunch of new vegas odds are out for the expected win totals for the season.
Highlights for the Over/Under:
Michigan: 10.5
Nebraska: 9.5
Ohio State: 9
MSU: 8
Iowa: 8
http://www.mlive.com/sports/2016/08/college_football_overunder_win.html…
Caveats of course about how betting lines are set not based on real predictions, but on what the odds makers think will yield them a roughly even split on betters taking the Over vs. Under position. But still, I was surprised that Michigan is that high and OSU that low--or at least if Michigan is at 10.5 I'd expect OSU to be at 11. It'll be interesting to see how the line moves over the next few weeks.
Was that Bill C's Projected Win Total? Which from what I read is a really high number in his advanced metrics.
9.6 from Connelly, which is really high. I believe it is tallied as expected wins. So a 90% of beating Colorado is .9 of a win. If you had a 90% chance of winning all 12 games you would have a total of 10.8 expected wins. Given our road games (we are favored in every single game except OSU where he gives us close to 50%) 9.6 expected wins is very good, high chance of 11 or 12 wins in the regular season.
+1 useful explanation. Thank you.
The MLive article says that several Vegas books updated their odds, so my guess is that it's either updated odds since this Spring, or possibly additional books adding their initial predictions, which is bringing up the average O/U to 10.5.
I think this team is 1 win better than last years. Even on the road for 3 tough games, I'd take the over.
I think I like the under on Nebraska, FWIW.
Well I was including the postseason. Was not aware that it was not included.
Yeah--I'd agree & take the over for Michigan at 10.5. I actually think we are about 2 games better than last year, but considering that small but tough road schedule against Iowa, MSU and OSU, I feel like one of those +2 games compared to 2015 will get dropped due to a tough road loss--hence the overall +1 win prediction.
I assume these O/U numbers are just for the regular season and don't count wins in a Big Ten Championsip or bowl/playoff game.
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I'll take the over, thank you...
They look like good bets for the under and over.
Respectively, yeah.
Laughed when seeing Nebraska ahead of OSU
Yeah, that was actually a bigger surprise to me than seeing Michigan 1.5 games above OSU.
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Extremely surprised to see OSU at 9. I wish they had more hype, seems like they can only do better than expected this year. No weight on their shoulders this year and a ton on ours. Thats the only thing I hate about all this hype.
I can see where you're coming from. However, I trust Harbaugh to get this team to play up to (and exceed) those lofty expectations. It's an alpha/ultra-competitive mentality that Harbuagh has always had and he seems to be able to instill it in others.
I agree with you. The only thing I worry about is... Harbaugh has never even won a conference championship. He had some good years and has proven to be a great NFL coach. What if we are setting our expectations too high due to the media just trying to sell press? We talk like we are on bama level or OSU level when we arent. What if those expectations arent realistic? Thats why those coachs have won so many championships with different schools. I am really excited for this year and the years to come. I love the strength of the B1G and the coaches that its made up of. I just feel like the hype has been built so much when we havent done anything to show for it.
Harbaugh won 2 conference championships in seven years of coaching at the college level before coming to Michigan, and another conference championship in 4 years with the 49ers. The myth he never won a conference championship mystifies me; it is so obviously wrong on the face of it.
Obviously take the over, that's why the payout is even on the over currently.
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never wanted to lose $20 so bad in your life
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Wow...
No Connor Cook.
3 new starters on O-line.
Calhoun is gone.
It's not like the cupboard is bare in EL, they have 4 new wideouts that are just gonna blow people away in time, but really, you think they're going to have 9 wins? This is the year, if any, Sparty assumes their traditional spot for Thanksgiving at the kiddle table.
Thank goodness for the Furman game then! Ha! They're gonna need it.
No matter how badly we want them to crash and burn with Cook gone, O'Connor isn't that big a dropoff and they should be good for 9-3 this year with U-M, OSU, and Wisconsin all at home. Only tough road game is ND.
I know IU lost their RB but they played staee, us too for that matter, down to the wire. I think this is the year IU gets a big W over staee.
were Maryland and Purdue. They can be scary, but they actually don't win that much. Dantonio has never lost to them (7-0), and that includes a win the year MSU went 7-5 with Maxwell (2012). You can be in a close game with IU, but you have to be pretty bad to actually lose to them.
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UM
@ND
OSU
BYU
Wisconsin
@Indiana
Northwestern
@PSU
Definitely not thinking over 8 is easy money there. 7-8 win campaign for MSU this time around.
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It could very well be the effect of some hype, but if you ask me now, I think I would rather enthusiastically take the over now. I think we beat one rival at least and all of the other games not played against OSU right now seem like they should favor us to varying degrees. Granted, that's based on a feeling and zero hard data, so take it for what it is worth, but I am pretty confident today about our season.
Nebraska's best case scenario is 7-5.
I can see them losing to Illinois again and Indiana if they don't show up on defense.
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OVER!
Michgan over 7.5 (bet $500)
Cleveland Browns over 6.5 (also bet $500)
So I lost on the vig.
Remember on these bets it's regular season only - no bowls - so they are basically saying Michigan will win all but one ot it's games this year.
I see you're into donating to Vegas. The bosses in Vegas greatly appreciate that Browns bet.
Something similar? I'd bet my freaking car they finish under.
UGH
CAN WE JUST HAVE FOOTBALL BACK ALREADY? YES, I AM SHOUTING, DAMN IT.
but I'm not shouting. I'm simmering right next to you looking at my 30 day anger management chip and wondering when I'll blow.
Okay, son, you have our attention now. Everyone is looking at the tantrum kid. Now, do you have anything actually useful to say, or was that screaming just because of the knot in your panties?
this says more about umich fans betting the previous over than anything else
Seems like OSU's floor is probably 9 with losses to OU, MSU, UM. Over seems safe.
I don't like us at 10.5. I'd take us at 10.
And Nebraska plays Oregon, @OSU, @Iowa, @Indiana, @Wisconsin. 10 seems like a real stretch for them.
Hoo boy, those are big expectations by some folks.
Nebraska is being oversold. OSU and MSU are being undersold.
Under on Michigan. I think 10 wins are more likely than 11 especially with @MSU, @Iowa, and @OSU. I'd love to be wrong here.
Under of Nebraska. Maybe I'll be wrong but the West seems like a charlie foxtrot and I don't see Nebraska making a big improvement from Riley 1.0 to Riley 2.0.
Over on Ohio State. If they get 9 wins you get your bet back so really the question is will OSU only win 8 games? I think the answer that is no, they will win more.
Over on MSU and Iowa. MSU and Iowa are going to get more than 7 wins and if they only get 8 wins you get your bet back.
Under on Iowa can absolutely happen.
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Iowa has either the number 1 or number 2 returning QB depending on your feelings towards JT Barrett. They miss MSU and OSU. They get Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Michigan at home. Their toughest road games are @Minnesota and @PSU.
I'd be shocked if Iowa won fewer than 8 games.