Discuss: Tougher away games this year or next?

Submitted by Morto on

Next season, we play five road games and much has already been made of their difficulty. While I'll admit that Notre Dame is a tougher road game than Purdue, Indiana, or Maryland (and Northwestern and Rutgers are both arguably easier than those three), my question essentially boils down to this: Would you rather play on the road against Wisconsin at noon and Penn State at night, or Michigan State and Ohio State both during the day?

For myself, I look at Wisconsin as a tougher environment than MSU (given proximity to Michigan and stadium intensity) and a PSU night game as one of the toughest environments in college football, beating out a noon game in the Shoe. As a season ticket holder, I would obviously like to have the rivals separated out; but, as a Michigan football fan, I'm no more concerned about our away schedule next year than I was this year. What say you?

 

Blue and Joe

November 27th, 2017 at 2:59 PM ^

Is this really a question? Next year's schedule is tougher.

Michigan had a very favorable schedule this year. They were able to go 8-4 and only beat one team with a .500 or better record.

unWavering

November 27th, 2017 at 3:21 PM ^

It's tougher, but it's not clear how much tougher.  

Notable 2018 non-home games: @ND, @MSU, @OSU

vs

Notable 2017 non-home games: @PSU, @Wisconsin, UF (neutral)

Looks about even, really.  "But unWavering, Florida ended up being trash!" - yep, but we never know how teams will end up looking until the year plays out.  We thought UF was going to be good this year, and they weren't.  Same thing could (and most likely will) happen to at least a team or two on our schedule next year.

I see about the same amount of "sure wins" on the 2018 schedule as I saw on the 2017 schedule.  I'm not all that convinced that 2018 is all that much harder overall - it just looks that way because we play all our rivals away, who may or may not be better than PSU/Wisconsin.

PeterKlima

November 27th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^

Michigan only beat one team with a record above 500.  Correct, but misleading.

Michigan lost to THREE current top 10 teams.  They hung in there and a couple came down to a backup QB late in the game.

They also lost to a top 20 team at home in the rain.

Otherwise, they didn't play many 7-5 or 8-4 type teams. 

Their schedule this year was REALLY hot or cold.  Not favorable.

Will it be as hot and cold next year?

mgowild

November 27th, 2017 at 3:20 PM ^

Our schedule is brutal next year, which is why I'm a bit more skeptical of "next year will be our year".



We have: 

@ Notre Dame

@ Northwestern

@ Michigan State

@ Ohio State

vs Wisconsin

vs Penn State



Compare that to Michigan State

@ Penn State

vs Northwestern

vs Michigan

vs Ohio State



or Ohio State



@ TCU

@ Penn State

@ Michigan State

vs Michigan



or Penn State

@ Michigan

vs Ohio State

vs Michigan State

vs Wisconsin

vs Iowa



We have what I would deem 6 games that are at least moderately difficult, four of which are away games. Penn State has five such games, but 4 are at home. Michigan State and Ohio State both have four. That's a brutal schedule for a supposed breakout year.

DrMantisToboggan

November 27th, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^

The only thing that makes next year tougher, IMO, is the OSU game. The difficulty of playing at Wisconsin and Penn State is tougher than all of Notre Dame, MSU, Northwestern combined. I think we will again be playing in Columbus for a shot at the Big Ten and CFP (this is obviously super early and based on good health and natural progress of young players). The early road games are not scary to me knowing that Notre Dame loses a ton and that we will be far superior to MSU and NW in talent.

DrMantisToboggan

November 27th, 2017 at 3:10 PM ^

We will have better coaching and talent (they lose so much to the draft this year including 4/5 starting OL) than they do. Their home field advantage is not significant enough to help their team overcome their disadvantages. I agree in expecting us to win that game, maybe easily even.

GordonG

November 27th, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^

to have MSU at night in east landfill...

I like our chances to throat punch Lil'Bro on the big stage... some overdue payback to the turd known as D'antonio

Perkis-Size Me

November 27th, 2017 at 3:12 PM ^

Why does everyone always assume that we're going to curbstomp MSU every single year? MSU lost essentially an entire recruiting class' worth of players to scandal and they still beat us, Penn State, and are in position to win 10 games. One year after going 3-9. That's an amazing coaching job by Dantonio. Oh yeah and they beat us this year too. 

As far as I'm concerned, that game is probably at least a coinflip every year as long as Dantonio is in charge there. They somehow find ways to bring their opponents down to their level in almost every game and win in ugly slugfests. 

Occam's Razor

November 27th, 2017 at 3:17 PM ^

What have you possibly seen from Michigan Football 15-17 to make the conclusion that we will just roll in there and throat punch lil bro in a NIGHT PRIMETIME GAME nonetheless? 

Quit underestimating MSU and maybe we can avoid having fanbase meltdowns post-game. 

Perkis-Size Me

November 27th, 2017 at 3:07 PM ^

Playing in Happy Valley, at night, is probably one of the top-10 (maybe top-5) hardest environments to win in at any sport in this country. Right up there with trying to win a game at Cameron Indoor or in Foxboro. Would honestly rather play in Columbus at noon than Happy Valley at night. 

That said, next year's road slate, as a whole, is much tougher than 2019. In 2019 we get all the rivals at home, Camp Randall did not look or sound overly intimidating last week, and that really only leaves @ Penn State. Unless they make Pitt a night game that year, we will likely be their night game again. But I'd rather handle @ Penn State than @ ND, @ MSU, and @ OSU. 

VicTorious1

November 27th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^

When people say this about Happy Valley are they simply basing this on their feelings or data that suggest that it is indeed the truth.  Do the data show that it's any more difficult to play at Happy Valley on the road than, say, the Horseshoe (I know we only play OSU at noon), Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc?  I've seen this suggested on various sites, but the posters don't post any citations.  I suppose I could go and look up PSU's home night record and compare it against other teams, but I'm not the one making the assertion. 

Bambi

November 27th, 2017 at 3:31 PM ^

Next year's definitely tougher. That being said I don't buy the idea that next year can't be the year with a tough schedule.

We have @ND, @NW, @MSU and @OSU. 

ND:

-They lose 5 offensive starters, including 4/5ths of their OL 2 of which are first round picks. Adams is a junior but last month CBS had him as a top 20 prospect and he's a RB, so good chance he's gone.

-They lose 5 starters on D (2 DL and all 3 LBs). No idea if any other draft eligible guys will declare.

-Their QB seems like JT Barrett lite, good runner but below average passer. 

-They went 9-3 this year. With all these losses and all the experience we bring back, there's no reason we can't win this. We haven't had a big road win under Harbaugh, here's a great chance to end that starting 2018.

NW:

-They lose 4 guys on offense including Justin Jackson.

-They lose 4 guys on D including both starting safeties.

-Their QB is Clayton Thorson (lol).

-@ Ryan Field is 50% Michigan fans.

-Another 9-3 team, they lose 8 starters including their all time leading rusher and their only impressive win this year was triple OT against MSU. They had a terrible offense all year long. No reason we can't win this, especially since road games at NW are the easiest we'll get.

MSU/OSU:

-These are the two tough ones. Personally I don't think MSU was that great (only beat us/PSU due to weather shenanigans and JOK), but they only lose 3 starters and they'll compete for the B1G title.

-OSU loses 4 starters on offense (1 is Barrett which may help them) including their only 2 good OL. On defense they lose 4 starters for sure, 2 DL that don't start but are part of their great DL unit and play a lot, and potentially 2 more with Ward and Hubbard.

-Both of these games are loseable. They're also very winnable. If MSU/OSU can beat us here 2/3 years under Harbaugh, there's no reason in year 4 with all the talent returning we can't go 1-1 here. I don't think road games are a valid excuse anymore. Good teams win hard games on the road. Year 4 with all the returning starters we have is go time. I think 3-1 in those 4 road games and undefeated at home should be the expectation.

MichiganForever

November 27th, 2017 at 3:34 PM ^

We are Iowa of the Big Ten until further notice. Hell even Iowa can beat Ohio State

 

So until further notice look at each game as if you were examining Iowa's schedule for next year and tell me what games you think are any more than a coin flip?

In reply to by PeterKlima

MichiganForever

November 27th, 2017 at 4:29 PM ^

We kinda are. Whats Iowa's record over the last 5 years compared to ours? They actually won their division and were a play away from going to the CFP.

 

They blew out OSU. infact if I was an Iowa fan reading this blog that would be an insult

PeterKlima

November 27th, 2017 at 6:34 PM ^

This is a classic "feeling down" shit post. 

 

Arbitrary time frame? Check. (Why 5 years, why not the last two years?)

Heaping praise for something UM did? Check.  (A play away from CFP, huh?)

Anger about UM rivalry games? Check. (Like that OSU/Iowa game was anything other than a fluke.)

 

Iowa is a one-trick pony.  They have a uniquely, strong home field advantage, but they are a middling team.  Kirk Ferentz's ceiling is clear.

 

Ignore all the ways Michigan is significantly different/better than Iowa during Harbaugh's time, such as multiple top 25 finishes, wins/losses, ZERO bad losses (i.e., teams outside the top 25), etc.

 

Oh yeah, and Harbaugh is doing this all in his first few years with the odd/big holes in the roster left by Hoke...

 

But, whatever.  Your narrative makes you feel good for some reason, believe it.

MichiganForever

November 28th, 2017 at 12:50 AM ^

If i went back further than 5 years itd be alot worse lol

Nothing, including record and big wins would make michigan better than Iowa over the last 5 years. Including the fact they beat us head to head and were also a drive away ftom beating penn state who waxed us.

Another delusional fan.

jerseyblue

November 27th, 2017 at 3:37 PM ^

I wish the home and away schedules were flip flopped. I wanted OSU home last year when we were contenders. I would have rather gone there this year when we weren't going anywhere anyway. Next year when we will be much better I'd rather have OSU and MSU at home.