Can UM get to AP #5?

Submitted by greymarch on October 23rd, 2021 at 4:47 PM

There is a small chance UM can pass The Great Evil tonight, and moved to #5 in the AP poll tomorrow afternoon.  Hear me out (or read me out, as the case may be...)

 

UM beat the spread today.  Teams never drop when they beat the spread.

 

In the current AP poll UM is #6 with 1214 points.

 

The Great Evil is #5 with 1252 points.  A difference of 38 points.  Not much in the AP poll.

 

UCLA is currently defeating Oregon.  If UCLA wins, Oregon suffers its 2nd defeat, and Oregon defeated The Great Evil.

 

PSU deservedly lost in 8OTs today, even though it never should have even gone to OT.  ILL ran for 350 yards in regular-time vs PSU.  Illinois completely outplayed PSU.

 

What if Indiana keeps it fairly close vs The Great Evil tonight?  Keep that in the back of your mind.

 

There are still a few AP voters who were voting PSU over UM.  Those voters will no longer vote PSU over UM.  UM will get a few of those PSU votes.

 

A 2nd Oregon loss could cause some AP voters to no longer vote Ohio State #5, especially if Indiana can keep the game fairly close vs The Great Evil.

 

Oklahoma didnt exactly look stellar today.  Oklahoma won below the spread.  A few of their AP votes could switch to UM.

 

If Ohio State wins by less than 14 tonight, I think UM will pass The Great Evil, and move to #5 in the AP poll.

 

So, after the OSU game tonight, I give UM about a 20% chance of moving past The Great Evil, and taking the #5 spot in the AP. It's unlikely, but it could happen.

 

Oh, and those of you who think the polls don't matter.  THEY DAMN WELL MATTER.  The committee voters are human-beings, just like you and me.  The earlier UM can creep into the upper tier of the polls, the more the committee voters will take notice, and the more effect it will have when the committee voters tally their first national championship poll.

 

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aiglick

October 23rd, 2021 at 5:12 PM ^

This is my take as well. A one loss Michigan Big Ten Champion just is probably not getting left out of the Playoff. Still very early and we have our biggest test of the year so far although arguably next week’s game is the biggest before PSU since even were PSU to beat us they would still not make it above us since we’d only have the one loss in that scenario.

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Bo Harbaugh

October 23rd, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^

Unlikely, but could legit go to #3 after OU and Cinci struggled mightily against weak opponents today, and if UCLA can hold on against Oregon - hurting OSU.

I do believe OSU is a better team than UM right now, specifically because our passing game is horrific, but based on record and today's events, it's possible.

If we put a beating on Staee next week, I would not be surprised to see us jump to #3, despite our flaws.

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bfeeavveerr

October 23rd, 2021 at 6:07 PM ^

The best way to jump OSU in the polls is to beat them. I don't care if we are ahead of them or behind them.....just win the game against them.

Joined: 08/01/2019

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Perkis-Size Me

October 23rd, 2021 at 6:09 PM ^

I’m not sure if they’ll go up a spot, but as far as I’m concerned Cincinnati is out after today. 

Are they still a great team? Absolutely. But if they wanted to get into the CFP they had to not just win out but DOMINATE everyone. They had to hang on for dear life against a bad Navy team. 

They had no margin for error. They’ll go to an NY6 game but as far as the CFP is concerned they were begging for this to happen and got their wish. Cincy is O-U-T, OUT. 

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Chitown Kev

October 23rd, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^

No...Oklahoma won't drop that far, Cincy has a better nonconference win than Michigan, and Ohio State and Alabama are Ohio State and Alabama even with a loss...beat Sparty next week in East Landfill and we can have this conversation...besides, MIchigan is situated just fine where they are

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WayOfTheRoad

October 23rd, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^

Probably not and don't really care. However, it won't be because of records and transitive wins/losses.

People see what UM is and isn't. They're undefeated but as Klatt rightfully mentioned, they're not running a sustainable offensive system going forward. They want to pound the rock while not being dominant at it. Good but not dominant and that's fine if you have a passing game that can make a defense pay for loading up against the run but Michigan doesn't (not consistently anyway).

The defense is good. It'll keep you in games IF you can match your opponent's output vs a good offense but, again, they don't seem built for that.

Michigan probably isn't jumping anyone at this point and because of perception that's based on a lot of fact. They haven't earned the benefit of the doubt on recent years like OSU, OU and others have. Without a loss ahead of them they likely won't go up.

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Don

October 23rd, 2021 at 6:56 PM ^

If we lose to OSU and don’t go to the BIG championship game, our chances of getting into the playoffs are miniscule because we’ll fall out of the top four.

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Harlans Haze

October 23rd, 2021 at 7:30 PM ^

I'm 20% sure that UM has moved up in the polls every week they've been in, event though they've looked bad at least 2 times (Rutgers and Nebraska). That's because they've won and other teams have lost. I don't know why voters would hold Cincy and Oklahoma to a different standard (or we should want them to) just because their latest victories were ugly. But, if we're looking for a new number 2 team...how about Wake Forest? only a little sarcasm. 

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