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Date Title Body
11/14/2018 - 8:10am Assuming UM wins out - …

Assuming UM wins out - "takes care of business" in final three games.  

Ranking Scenarios:

  1. Bama, Clemson and ND win out ... UM stays #4 (my most likely case)
  2. Bama, Clemson win out but ND 1-loss to Syracuse  ... UM becomes #3, OU #4
  3. Bama 1-loss to UGA, Clemson wins out, ND wins out ... Bama is #4 (shit case)
  4. Bama 1-loss to UGA, Clemson wins out, ND 1-loss ... Bama #3 and UM #4

Clemson is playing patsies so they aren't losing.  To minimize the risk in Scenario 3 where a 1-loss Bama bumps us out, we need Syracuse to edge ND in a close game.  That would likely deliver under Scenario 4 the final CFP ranking:  #1 Clemson, #2 UGA, #3 Bama, #4 UM. 

My most likely case is Scenario 1, but at this stage of the season a 1-loss ND from a #12 Syracuse at Yankee Stadium would not drop us out of the top 4 given how well the committee has stated we are improved since that ND loss.  Scenario 3 is danger for us, but Scenario 2 and 4 are going to work for the good guys.

So there ... Go Orange, Beat ND !

 

11/13/2018 - 8:45pm Agreed Bama beats teh doors…

Agreed Bama beats teh doors off of UGA.  But no way Syracuse beats ND, like less than a 10% chance.  West Virginia is for real and I think they split the back-to-back matchup with Oklahoma which will dump both from the chance.  UM just needs to win out.  Go Blue !!!

11/13/2018 - 8:36pm None, no case.  ND beat UM…

None, no case.  ND beat UM head-to-head.  

Edit:  assuming both win out.

11/13/2018 - 11:39am Yes, Bo's view on passing …

Yes, Bo's view on passing ... "there are three potential outcomes from passing the football and only one of them is a positive thing". 

11/12/2018 - 9:20am Maybe Nico and DPJ have made…

Maybe Nico and DPJ have made just that much more progress. Tarik has missed a ton of practice time and he might be limited relative to the playbook, thus limiting his snaps to what he knows well enough to run it in a game.  His snaps will go up as he gets more practice reps.  During the week, they now only get 20 hours of practice time which is mostly spent installing that week's gameplan.  

11/11/2018 - 8:57pm Senior day.  Going to bring…

Senior day.  Going to bring it on defense. Spread is going down.

11/11/2018 - 11:56am Shea PFF #1 QB of the week …

Shea PFF #1 QB of the week ... 184 QBR in swirling wind conditions.  Team effort - pass pro great, WRs focused and finishing plays, with Shea dealing it.  

https://wolverineswire.com/2018/11/11/michigan-quarterback-shea-patterson-pro-football-focus-team-of-the-week/

11/11/2018 - 10:44am Tough game to get up for,…

Tough game to get up for, but you have to recognize Rutgers getting a bit more competitive.  Took an adjustment to move the ball and the windy conditions was like having an extra DB to account for ... passing and catching had to be extra sharp.  Pass pro was great all night and Shea was dealing it ... that was a 184 QBR in bad passing conditions.  Strong night for the passing game - team effort right there.

11/10/2018 - 11:19pm Shea’s QBR at 184.  Awesome…

Shea’s QBR at 184.  Awesome.  Rutger put 9 in the box all night.  Took what was given. Well done.

11/10/2018 - 11:07pm Not flat.  Rutger put 9 in…

Not flat.  Rutger put 9 in the box and we took them in the short pass.  Looked flat for us but that is just the shit opponent being Rutger.  

11/10/2018 - 11:02pm Rutger put 9 guys on the LOS…

Rutger put 9 guys on the LOS nearly every snap.  Had to pass the ball to move it.  Shea was solid.  Rutger sucks.  

Edit:  Shea’s QBR at 184 which is awesome MUCH better than solid. 

11/09/2018 - 3:55pm Yes, seems additive to the…

Yes, seems additive to the offense this year.  Maybe not as dramatic as Coach Ed, but definitely positive development from him for the young WRs.  DPJ in particular has made great strides. 

11/09/2018 - 1:31pm Want OSU to beat Sparty

Want OSU to beat Sparty

Want UM to beat Rutger, IU and throttle OSU in the 'shoe

Want UM to dance in the confetti at Indy with its B1G crown

Want to make the CFPs

Then I will start making my X-mass list ... Go Blue !!!

11/08/2018 - 10:33am I love the backdrop in the…

I love the backdrop in the photo ... there isn't a Rutger jersey or shirt to be seen as it's all maize and blue fans.  This will not be like the typical away game in the B1G.

11/08/2018 - 9:54am Agreed, 1-loss and ND is done

Agreed, 1-loss and ND is done

11/08/2018 - 9:40am I think ND has to lose a…

I think ND has to lose a game to fall out of the top 4.  But without Book, that is much more possible.  Probably not from FSU, but Syracuse or USC could be trouble with Wimbush dorking a bunch of INTs to lose a game (or two).

11/07/2018 - 4:44pm bang this man ... he needs…

bang this man ... he needs some points

11/07/2018 - 4:42pm Ha - MOAR revenge !

Ha - MOAR revenge !

11/07/2018 - 4:38pm Points out of thin air !

Points out of thin air !

11/07/2018 - 4:34pm Working

Working

11/07/2018 - 4:32pm Testing

Testing

11/07/2018 - 3:28pm lol ... your on !

btw - if…

lol ... your on !

btw - if the 1-loss 'Bama scenario plays out, you know I hope to lose that bet

11/07/2018 - 3:20pm Agreed there is no…

Agreed there is no conspiracy on the committee, however the CFP architects were required to write the criteria in such a way that the SEC could qualify as many of its members as possible - one things was the SEC would not sign up unless the league title criteria meant virtually nothing. 

The SEC encouraged its members to then schedule meaningless out of conference games such that the pre-season rankings carry over into league play AND no out of conference comparisons are possible. Therefore, in total their SEC league remains more highly ranked during the regular season increasing the probability of delivering two of its members to the 4-team playoff. 

Conspiracy from the Committee Members ?  No. 

SEC manipulation of the CFP system ?  Yes

11/07/2018 - 2:41pm This is the truth.  We need…

This is the truth.  We need the following to stay at #4:

  • Alabama wins out
  • Notre Dame wins out
  • OSU beats MSU
  • Michigan wins out

Even if all those things happen, except that Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC title game, we are hosed. 

Georgia would jump to #2, so Alabama's loss is higher quality than Michigan's loss to #3 Notre Dame. OSU at 2-losses would drop far out of the top 10.  So Alabama's highest quality win comes from a highly-ranked LSU, which is better than Michigan's highest quality win against a much lower ranked OSU. 

And the B1G title would add no value because the West Division stinks / title game opponent will be unranked.   Sorry, but that is how this committee picks the four playoff teams.

11/07/2018 - 12:37pm This is wishful thinking. …

This is wishful thinking.  If Alabama is a 1-loss team to the SEC champion, again to the #5 rated Georgia ... Alabama will not be excluded from the playoffs based on that kind of loss.  Conference title is only a tie-breaker and means virtually nothing to the committee.  I think we get hosed by the eye test and current view from the committee and media that ... "this looks like Saban's best ever team at Alabama".

11/07/2018 - 11:01am Yes, agreed it is corrupt. …

Yes, agreed it is corrupt.  The SEC would not go along with the playoffs unless the title game was deemed almost irrelevant to the qualifications.  We really need to get rid of the conference title games and expand to an 8 team playoff.  First round replaces the conference title games as a "play-in" round.  Games would be hosted at regional NFL domed-stadiums.  The current matchups based on this week's ranking would be:

  • #1 Alabama vs. #8 Washington State
  • #2 Clemson vs. #7 LSU
  • #3 Notre Dame vs. #6 Oklahoma
  • #4 Michigan vs. #5 Georgia

After the play-in round there would be a final ranking to seed the teams appropriately based upon overall performance.

This would be a killer playoff format and take in big money for the leagues.  I mean who is going to watch Oklahoma beat-up on WVA in back-to-back weekends ... just asinine that these league title games are worthless.  Let's settle this debate on the field.  Personally, I would love to play Georgia instead of Northwestern again. 

And conference champions would still be declared but on the prior method ... by league record and tie-breakers.  We would still be declared B1G champion based on our record and head-to-head with Northwestern.

11/07/2018 - 8:15am Well done!  Was Don Brown…

Well done!  Was Don Brown dialed-intense or what?  He willed that outcome.  Defense was spectacular. 

11/06/2018 - 4:49pm This is especially true at…

This is especially true at QB.  Being a 1st rounder is key as it typically puts you on a team who is banking on that guy to become a starter.  Big money improvement over two contract periods plus a true shot at NFL glory. 

Shea needs another year under Harbaugh's system to really show that kind of growth and high ceiling to the NFL. 

11/06/2018 - 4:38pm That is a very good pipeline…

That is a very good pipeline of QB talent and growth potential.  Shea coming back next year would be awesome.  We would just need to find a Higdon replacement ... who is not yet apparent in the RB room.  Unless Evans bulks up like Higdon did this past offseason, not sure he can gain the same yards after contact and be good in pass pro.  Higdon really stepped-up his game this year to be an every-down back.

11/06/2018 - 1:48pm The new-world triple option…

The new-world triple option is the RPO.  Shea's threat to run also helps freeze the back-side LB in contain which opens the free-running TE.  That is maybe just as important as anything to make the third leg of the RPO wide open.

Harbaugh has been building to this point all season.  Expect more pieces of the RPO package to be unleashed at Columbus.  Go Blue !!!

11/06/2018 - 12:41pm In conference play, here is…

In conference play, here is how each stacks up in terms of scoring:

Offense:   OSU #3 at 36 ppg  / MSU #13 at 22 ppg

Defense:  OSU #8 at 25 ppg / MSU #2 at 17 ppg

The teams are like polar opposites.  Game time windchill is going to be 28 degrees.  I am going with MSU's defense to win this one ugly, something like ... MSU 17 OSU 13. 

BTW ... who is the #1 scoring offense in B1G conference play?  yup, UM #1 at 37 ppg

 

11/06/2018 - 12:11pm I agree, OSU at Columbus is…

I agree, OSU at Columbus is a very tough environment even if UM is playing great and OSU has been struggling. 

However, if MSU takes down OSU this weekend then the game in Columbus gets way easier.  Why? The fans will be lost, the players will be demoralized and Michigan will smell blood. 

And I give OSU only a 50/50 chance of beating Sparty in East Lansing.  MSU was embarrassed last year and has a chance for redemption, which is enough fuel to get them up for this game.

 

11/06/2018 - 11:50am No way - beating a highly…

No way - beating a highly ranked OSU team in front of the home crowd is job security and great for recruiting.  MSU is not going to purposively lose this game just to make it more difficult for Michigan to reach the title game.  Hate is a powerful emotion, but not that powerful. 

11/06/2018 - 11:19am Have to agree.  Haskins…

Have to agree.  Haskins doesn't even look like the same guy who replaced JT in last year's game.  He looks thicker, slower almost not athletic.  That one slide in the Nebraska game was very awkward and then the entire stadium booed his feeble attempt.  Not good. Columbus booing a guy who is in the Heisman hunt ?  Unbelievable.   

11/06/2018 - 11:13am If Urban has lost his team,…

If Urban has lost his team, we are going to find out at 12noon on a frigid Saturday in East Lansing.

11/06/2018 - 10:45am Thanks for the link!  Great…

Thanks for the link!  Great interview.

11/05/2018 - 1:02pm Backup QB was always going…

Backup QB was always going to be a problem, Shea is that good.  Peters is probably now the best option, especially given the pass protection improvement.  But it was very sad to see Dylan get injured as he looked more like a plug-and-play into the current Shea-led offense.

11/05/2018 - 8:39am Revenge is a very sweet…

Revenge is a very sweet thing.  Go Blue !!!

11/04/2018 - 3:54pm Ace if you have the time and…

Ace if you have the time and strength, it would be great if you did an ISO on Ben Mason who you dubbed as "Ol' Murderface" ... his work on kickoffs vs PSU was unbelievable. Blowing up the whole PSU wedge on kickoffs and then murdering Hamler.  Thing of beauty right there for a UFR focus on special teams.  Really set the tone after each Michigan score.

11/04/2018 - 3:14pm Scary thought ?  We can get…

Scary thought ?  We can get even better.  

Go Blue !!!

11/04/2018 - 3:07pm Love me some Rashan Gary …

Love me some Rashan Gary ... True Blue !!!

11/04/2018 - 11:08am Harbaugh found the QB to run…

Harbaugh found the QB to run his offense ... efficient 175 passer rating, no turnovers and a threat to keep it for meaningful yards on the ground.  Definitely a baller.

11/03/2018 - 9:39pm Ace - welcome home.  The…

Ace - welcome home.  The revenge tour has multiple meanings ... keep getting better and beat this thing.  Go Blue !!!

11/03/2018 - 9:30pm What ?   That sucks.  Hope…

What ?   That sucks.  Hope not major break for him. 

11/02/2018 - 3:17pm Going to be a big day for…

Going to be a big day for Higdon. 

Our mashers are going to put those tiny DTs downfield so fast it will be fun to watch and then the real glee comes when Ol' Murderface breaks those twig-like LBs in half.  Pound them, trap them, and then pound them some more.

And once they start bringing down the safeties to help, play-action to a free running TE.  Shea isn't going to dorf those chances like Stanley.

UM 38  PSU 17

11/01/2018 - 9:39pm Strap it on and let's find…

Strap it on and let's find out.  Go Blue !!!

11/01/2018 - 9:38pm Temple is playing well.  UCF…

Temple is playing well.  UCF is a pretender.  Neither team is top 25.

11/01/2018 - 10:54am Bama is not going to lose…

Bama is not going to lose twice, so that is the flaw here.  However painful it is, I will be hoping that Alabama wins out and eliminates having two SEC teams in the final 4.   If Bama has 1-loss, then they will be in the final 4.  The signal is already there from the committee - they put LSU ahead of ND so they would have the cover to drop Bama to only #4.

People need to realize that the whole CFP was created by the SEC for their benefit (i.e. conference title means nothing more than a tie breaker). 

We need Alabama to eliminate LSU and UGA by giving them 2 losses.

10/31/2018 - 10:25pm Fuck the PC movement.  It is…

Fuck the PC movement.  It is just a lynch mob that has no moral compass.  Good or bad, each person should be given due process and not hijacked by politics.  Durkin should get paid $huge for contract breach.  Innocent until proven guilty ... oh shit, the independent committee hired by the University said Durkin was cleared.  Yikes - sue their as$.

Edit:  down vote me if you must but this Maryland governor is just wrong, arbitrarily ruling like he is a Russian czar.  Come up with facts that dispute the reality of the situation as reported by the University commission.  Nope, he is just another me-too politician.  Sad shit.

10/31/2018 - 3:22pm Can this defense hold PSU to…

Can this defense hold PSU to the revengeful "goose egg" ?  I wouldn't bet against Don Brown, who has had an entire year to dream about it ...