|01/31/2019 - 11:10pm||XM, my opinion doesn’t…||
XM, my opinion doesn’t matter but I think is easy to grossly underestimate what our kids can and can’t handle. I think your timing analogy is a good one but it’s not the child’s ability to understand that is in question, it usually our ability to help them understand that benefits from the time.
Swearing is actually a pretty easy one to shelter a kid from because it’s still relatively taboo and many people abstain from it by choice. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if most people do so.
What about alcohol consumption, though? I personally see many parallels between alcohol consumption and profanity both are typically thought of as adult behaviors. People will help you shelter a kid from profantity but similar allies in regards to alcohol consumption are hard to come by. If your kids are like mine they have certainly been curious.
How do you parse the difference between explaining alcohol consumption and profanity? They are the same to me... you can’t do this and this is why. Kids are very conditioned to that construct...
|01/25/2019 - 4:30pm||They were talking about…||
They were talking about bacons 5th anniversary and how the traditional gift was wood, JUB made a subtle boner joke.
|01/22/2019 - 5:38pm||The 2011 collective…||
The 2011 collective bargaining agreement rendered this issue mostly moot. There is now a rookie compensation pool that basically predetermines player compensation as a function of draft slot. What remains are bonuses and minor clauses. Even then the contracts aren’t hard to find so you could look at all the contracts that are out there and understand what lies within the realm of possibility and negotiate from there. Voila, you’re an agent!
Regardless of all that, total contract value and major clauses are pretty locked down. The NFL doesn’t want their cornered market to be unfettered, this isn’t ‘Nam.
|01/22/2019 - 3:33pm||Depends how you refine…||
Depends how you define success, he’s already a millionaire he doesn’t need to be Jerry Maguire. I think the NFL caps agent commissions at 3 pct and rookie contracts are pretty constrained. I think miles garrret had a contract for 30M over 4-yrs as a number 1 pick in 2017. Say Gary gets half that. He’d save 450k by representing himself. I’d count that as a win even if nothing else ever came of it.
|01/17/2019 - 4:16pm||I appreciate all that (we 3…||
On the committee thing, I'm just speculating and yours is as good as mine there. In a hurry up situation, I would expect to hear this type of exchange:
Harbaugh: Josh we need tempo, lets go to the zippidiedoodah package... maybe even a little zippiddieyay
[subs go in]
Gattis: Spider 2 Y Bannana with the flippy floppy sprinkles in the hoo-hah
Everyone else: Mime show
Gattis: Coach, they're in a voltron set... bingobango should be good here.
Harbaugh: Make it so
Harbaugh: Good shit, Josh.
During that game's preparation zippidiedoodah, zippidieyay and bingobango get chosen/designed and installed based on the scouting report for that specific opponent and specific looks/tendencies they might show. Those are specific sequences of plays that work with a specific personnel set. Having guys like Evans and Eubanks around could let those packages go from 10 to 11 to 00 without subbing thus effing with the defense even more. That's when defenders start auditioning for Emmy nominations...
I'm not a coach, so all of that is made up and probably somehow fatally flawed but it seems like checking in with 2 or 3 other guys on top of HC and OC just might slow getting the play call in enough to make a difference in a hurry up situation. If the game prep was done well...how much input/conversation is actually essential to the process?
|01/17/2019 - 3:12pm||What does "see it" mean…||
What does "see it" mean though? The offense isn't going to get completely overhauled and I don't think it needs to be. The only game that I can personally WTF at is Ohio State. I was expecting/hopeful that we would attack them the same way Purdue, Nebraska, and Maryland did but with better athletes at our disposal. It didn't happen. Even then, we were OK until Bush got knocked out, we went 3-and-out, and the had the punt blocked for a TD. Maybe Florida too but there were other issues at play there.
In 2019 we need to be able to go up-tempo... one man sequencing the plays should help tremendously there. We also need to be able to go 3/4/5 wide if/when the situation calls for it. We wont be going 00 for the hell of it, and we certainly don't need to.
Do we need to scrap the I-form? I would say, hell no. It has its time and place.
I'm looking forward to seeing Gattis do his thing, we have the horses.
|01/17/2019 - 12:31pm||People engage in way more…||
People engage in way more dangerous activities for way less fame and fortune. Bullrider died this week after getting stomped on by a bull.
At the NFL level and at the college level football players are adults making a cost-benefit decision.
Youth sports are a different matter.
|01/17/2019 - 11:14am||Faehn's timeline is really…||
Faehn's timeline is really difficult to put together. The way I understand it:
She joins USAG. A month later a coach overhears some ahtletes (Nichols, Raisman) discussing Nassar's "treatments" and approaches Faehn about the situation. Keep in mind that at the time, people were still trying to figure out if there was a legitimate medical procedure happening. It is known that some of Nassar's abuse occurred with the victim's parents present in the room... that's how fucked up this situation is. During that investigation Nichols, Raisman and Maroney disclose more details... that's when the FBI was contacted.
The quality of the decisions you make is directly related to the quality of the information you have. The gymnasts didn't go directly to their coach nor Rhonda Feahn... it is those women that initiated the investigation which ultimately led to the details coming out.
Aly Raisman's public criticism of Faehn was "I dont know what she did or didn't do with [the information we gave her]." Well, Ali, she took it to the FBI.
The Michigan gymnastics team lost a potential asset to its program and its very unfortunate because almost everything happened appropriately. Almost...
|01/16/2019 - 12:06pm||I agree that it probably…||
I agree that it probably wouldn't be insurmountably chaotic but there are many issues that arise from open transfer. Coaches can get fired, college players can't. Should the school be able to cut a player because he isn't as good as they thought when they recruited him?
How about this one: "Hey Tate, Justin just took your spot. We don't need you anymore, pack your bags."
I see *reasonable* transfer restrictions as the opposite side of the coin to not being able to pull a player's scholarship for performance/medical reasons.
|01/16/2019 - 10:36am||She didn't let it rest there…||
She didn't let it rest there. It was she that reported it to the FBI. Its not even close to the JoePa scenario.
Keep in mind that at the time, people were still trying to figure out if there was a legitimate medical procedure happening. Some of Nassar's abuse occurred with the victim's parents present in the room... that's how fucked up this situation was/is.
The vast majority of the people skewering Feahn over her actions don't have anywhere close to the clarity on the facts as they assume to have. They hear Nassar, they hear accusations from Aly Raisman, and that's enough for them.
|01/16/2019 - 10:13am||Yes, use of racist, sexist,…||
Yes, use of racist, sexist, homphobic, and other terms in that vein is deplorable and should not be tolerated. The Univeristy of Georgia acted swiftly and definitively. What else is the univeristy supposed to do?
Compare with the Reschke incident at MSU (LINK). That was an incident between guys in the same lockeroom and affected the entire team. None of the black players claimed that they weren't safe in East Lansing.
Field's claim is complete and utter bullshit and it diminishes the credibility of those that make this claim on a legitimate basis.
|01/15/2019 - 3:19pm||Stephen, Harbaugh is…||
Stephen, Harbaugh is telling us with his own mouth that Gattis is the OC for 2019 and the prevailing response is "I'll believe it when I see it." That's Fine. But, what reason is there to doubt that he's speaking the truth here? In 2018 Harbaugh would not speak a name when he was asked who the OC was (LINK, correct me if I'm wrong). The fact that Gattis has been named as such is already a change in behavior.
Whatever, man, I'm not trying to go 'round and round here. Past behavior is a good predictor of future behavior, but people change their behavior all the time. Harbaugh's offensive tendencies have developed over time because they have previously led to success. He has also shown the behavior of adaptability many times before but he doesn't seem to get credit for that, only manball. A main constant in Harbaugh's behavioral history is an unwavering commitment to doing whatever he can do to win which includes adding to the repertoire of "what works".
Manball *still* wins a lot of football games (10 aint 0), but we needed more than that to beat Ohio State last year. Going to get Gattis is as clear an indication that Harbaugh recognizes that fact as we can possibly get... yet look at how many people doubt that he recognizes and accepts that reality.
Its all good Stephen, I don't think you and I are that far apart. Like I said, I'll have a drank waiting for you on the "ITS HAPPENING" bus.
|01/15/2019 - 1:37pm||The skepticism against…||
The skepticism against Harbaugh's desire to win is hilarious to me. I get it but it still makes me ROFL. People must be forgetting the account of him going all Predator on a 10-year old so he could get the most kills in a laser tag game. Dude doesn't have "casual competition" mode. There's winning and there's losing... that's all there is. Win with character (dont cheat), win with cruelty. Those are the only requirements. Recognize that as butthurt as we all are over how the season ended that is the bare minimum for how Harbaugh feels about it.
He recognizes changes are needed in order to reach the goals he has for himself and his program. Rational changes are happening right in front of people's faces (ones they have clamored for) and yet those people presume to know Harbaugh better than he knows himself. Gimme a break.
The fear of disappointment is a strong phobia indeed. Take as much time as you need, fellas. The drinks will be flowing whenever you decide to join the party.
|01/14/2019 - 12:54pm||Hear, hear.||
|01/14/2019 - 12:52pm||Nah, man. There are…||
Nah, man. There are definitely people here--a whole lot of them--that are 100% certain that Faehn is not worthy of being involved with gymnastics ever again. The baby's getting thrown out with the bathwater here and its hard for me to see it any other way. And, the proportion of people who are willing to do so (while stating erroneous information, mind you) is deeply concerning.
There could have been a path forward for Faehn at Michigan to the mutual benefits of both but the Athletic Department lit that path on fire in the way they mishandled the situation from start to finish.
This is the SECOND time, Feahn has been [adversely affected, ahem] by the errors of her superiors.
|01/13/2019 - 6:38pm||I’m sorry but the vast…||
I’m sorry but the vast majority of people are grossly under informed over what Faehn did once she had the opportunity to act. She received information, the organization investigated, and they terminated Nassar five days later at which time they alerted the FBI. I would honestly like to know what course of action on her part would have been better or more expedient
At this I believe people are entrenched in their opinions regardless of whether those opinions have been formed on accurate information.
|01/13/2019 - 5:05pm||Faehn isn’t from MSU, she…||
Faehn isn’t from MSU, she was from USA gymnastics. Her situation isn’t cut and dry
|01/13/2019 - 12:52pm||Here again I’m not certain…||
Here again I’m not certain this is a reasonable expextation (notifying Nassar’s employer as well)... mandatory reporting CPS is one thing, but are you also obligated to go around and identify/inform every other institution the perpetrator is involved with (church groups, youth sports teams, etc)? I admit that I don’t know what is and isn’t required in this situation but that seems like a grossly unrealistic expectation to me.
|01/12/2019 - 8:43pm||This is a tough one. Sounds…||
This is a tough one. Sounds like Faehn ran her information up the chain of command in a reasonable amount of time then acted again when the up line failed. Not sure how else that’s supposed to go... the only alternative is to go full whistleblower right from the jump. I wouldn’t rust anyone who did that in a delegatory role. The threat of immediate harm is different (Mcqueary). Hard for me to conclude she was protecting Nassar, seems like she was trying to give the chain of command a chance to react appropriately, gave it a chance, and then responded when she was let down by her superiors.
That said, Major mistep here by Warde Manual. They needed to explain the reasoning behind their decision immediately after it was made and before others questioned it. I don’t doubt that they knew criticisms would follow the decision. Handling this way only serves to amplify the knee jerk reaction by people who definitely don’t know what the hell happened with Feahns involvement in the Nassar fiasco other than the fact the she was let go in the aftermath.
it sucks and I understand the criticism
|01/02/2019 - 12:53pm||This may have been Harbaugh…||
This may have been Harbaugh's best rated S&P+ offensive unit at Michigan but those previous offenses lacked the available talent that the 2018 team did.
It's criminal that Shea Patterson + Donovan Peoples Jones + Nico Collins + Tarik Black + Zach Gentry + Karan Higdon or Chris Evans + decent OL = Mediocre Offense. Hand that roster to Jeff Brohm or Matt Canada or Scott Frost or Joe Morehead or Lincoln Riley or Tom Herman or Mike Leach or Kliff Kingsbury or Chip Kelly or Brian Kelly or [insert a couple dozen other coaches/coordinators names here] and there's no fathomable way in hell their teams get their asses handed to them like Ohio State and Florida did to Harbaugh.
There's no two ways to look at this man, Harbaugh needs to evolve his approach. If Pep can't convince him otherwise then he's failing at his job and so is every other offensive coach on staff.
|12/27/2018 - 4:49pm||When you've said Dooon Brown…||
When you've said Dooon Brown, you've said it all!
Hope Harbaugh has a Don Brown padawan on the staff, soaking up everything there is to soak up.
Why did you do that? Why did you do it that way?
|12/25/2018 - 12:31am||Tho it's been said many…||
Tho it's been said many times, many ways: fuck the buckeyes, go blue!
|12/17/2018 - 10:58pm||that's a massive distortion…||
that's a massive distortion of reality.
both populations have seen 21% attrition, nothing to see here.
|12/11/2018 - 9:22am||"Grey shirting is a…||
"Grey shirting is a recruiting term that is not as commonly used as the term redshirting. A grey shirt is an incoming college freshman who postpones his enrollment in classes until the second term of his freshman year. This means they don’t take classes until the winter term. The NCAA allows college athletes five years to complete four years of eligibility after initial enrollment.
When a grayshirt puts off his enrollment, he’s extending his eligibility past his senior year for another term. Grayshirting is most commonly used in football. By delaying enrollment until the winter after his senior year of high school, a football player can play the fall season one year after his graduation date."
|12/04/2018 - 7:06pm||Lincoln Riley’s offenses at…||
Lincoln Riley’s offenses at East Carolina weren’t really that good; I think their highest offense I’ve S&P+ finish was mid twenties while he was there and mostly in the 40-70 range. They scored points but against who?
To me an important distinction between Riley and Day is that Riley was around the program he took over much longer than Day was. Riley was QB coach for both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and was there to recruit them. As an aside, Dabo Swinney had a similar profile to Riley in that he was on Bowdens staff for a while and had established himself as a fantastic recruiter at Clemson before ascending to head coach. By comparison, Ryan Day has accomplished very little in his own right than either of those two.
Maybe he “works out” for OSU but that doesn’t mean he’ll a good as Urban Meyer or even Jim Tressel. Brian Kelley worked out for Notre Dame; will Ohio State accept that level of success? That’s a significant step down from where they’ve been for almost 20 years... we’ll see.
|12/04/2018 - 11:46am||Um... thats exactly what…||
Um... thats exactly what Oklahoma is now except with way better players than Texas Tech ever had.
|12/04/2018 - 9:47am||Having 2 Heisman level…||
Having 2 Heisman level players in your cupboard is a helluva way to start a career. Kevin Sumlin looked pretty good when he had one of those...
And Dabo was already established as an *elite* recruiter when he ascended to the job. Tommy Bowden era Clemson was a mediocre program...Dabo made that thing what it is. Waaaaay different situation than taking over 2019 Ohio State or 2017 Oklahoma.
|11/27/2018 - 10:04am||Yeah, that’s the same…||
Yeah, that’s the same question but flipped to the offensive side. Despite our glaring issues schematically, we scored 39 with a dropped td and two failed 2pt conversions that should have been plenty to be honest.
HOWEVA it became clear that we would need much more offense once the defense was sca-rewed. Bush went out what, 5 minutes into the third? Then the blocked punt td happened soon after. That’s when (at the absolute latest) we needed to find an extra gear on offense and we have the players to do it as evidenced by our two minute drill at the end of the first half.
Brohm, Frost, and Canada all kept their teams in the game with superior offensive game plans and less talent than what is available at Michigan and with much worse defenses. Offense and defense are not mutually exclusive, you’re allowed to be awesome at both.
|11/27/2018 - 8:58am||I think the comments above…||
I think the comments above are reasonable and fair but it’s not like Urban Myer and Co had some epiphany going into this game... how in the hell was MSU able to slow these guys down? They were way more successful against Ohio state than we were defensively.
Seems like we have better talent our deficiencies notwithstanding... what am I missing?
|11/14/2018 - 3:32pm||I go the other way, actually…||
I go the other way, actually. I think it exposes and quantifies the hidden BS within of the playoff committee process. Its obvious that the committee is giving certain teams more credit than they've earned for reasons that are not communicated to us simpletons. Bias is bias whether there's an agenda or not.
|11/13/2018 - 5:44pm||This is cool and the…||
This is cool and the simplicity of the system fascinates me.
What program/method are you using to iterate the ranking?
|11/08/2018 - 11:55am||Dominant is a bit much. They…||
Dominant is a bit much. They're good, probably about as good as Iowa/Mississippi State but not quite Michigan State/Kentucky. ND's best defensive game of the season came against us and the mitigating circumstances there have been covered.
Losing Book brings their offense down to average and as discussed, their defense is solid but not DOMINANT.
|11/02/2018 - 7:07pm||betting limits increase…||
betting limits increase later in the week
|11/02/2018 - 1:39pm||Moneyflow and The Limit Lift…||
Moneyflow and The Limit Lift could explain this.
The topic of the Michigan line came up on the board earlier this week and the general commentary was similar: the 10 pt line seemed high but was necessary to keep the book balanced. Yes, this is day 1 of Sports Wagering 101. However, books also control bet limits and early in the week the limits are way lower than they are later in the week in order to manage risk while the market is resolves.
The book not only sees where the money goes but also where it comes from. This is probably a situation where there was a clear sharp-square split in the action early in the week. Bet limits go up, big money comes in (on Michigan in this case) and new PSU money comes in to meet it. The risk skew ultimately evens out but only because there was a lot of square money on one side to begin with.
This may be a case where the line was kept off of the final balance point in order to trap an imbalance in square PSU money before the limits were increased.
The book definitely knows how to recognize and exploit advantageous situations, believe that.
|10/28/2018 - 6:49pm||Sometimes the book is…||
Sometimes the book is willing to take exposure on one side vs the other. Maybe bookie thinks M smashes them but knows the market won’t make them lay the correct number off pts. I wouldn’t be surprise to see Penn state catch some steam here, in which case there will be a lot of dead PSU money trapped at 11... Michigan or nothing on this one.
|10/19/2018 - 7:08pm||Good shit jedd dot gif||
Good shit jedd dot gif
|10/19/2018 - 6:57pm||Amen and LFG.
Amen and LFG.
In summary, Go Blue!
|10/08/2018 - 9:45pm||Damn. Your contributions to…||
Damn. Your contributions to the blog have been and will be missed. Whenever I write a diary I strive to mimic the voice that the blog staff has forged over the years and you are one of the pillars upon which that standard rises. We look forward to seeing you resume the mantle of Michigan excellence in your next endeavor.
Godspeed and Go Blue
|08/31/2018 - 12:50pm||Yoikes. It wasn't a…||
Yoikes. It wasn't a committee of one, guy.
|08/31/2018 - 12:38pm||I heard something to that…||
I heard something to that effect too. The report I heard was that Urban Myer's agent told him two women were on their over and they needed his phone for about four hours. So, that statement might very well be true. If someone else does the dirty work then you're clean, right??
|08/31/2018 - 12:25pm||oh yeah, its totally working…||
oh yeah, its totally working for him too!
|08/31/2018 - 12:22pm||My beef is that he points to…||
My beef is that he points to the report basically saying that since the investigators decided to believed him so must everyone else.
A thousand thanks for the input but, go fuck yourself Urban!
|08/22/2018 - 4:16pm||re: Dodd article...
re: Dodd article...
Feels like it’s well past high time for Delany to get off his ass about all of this BS that's happening all across the conference. No, the scandals aren't his fault but he sure as hell can do more than nothing about it. Title IX is tied to federal funding, Title B1G could be tied to dat BTN teat. Bring some proposals to the university presidents and make them go on record in either support or opposition:
I'm just riffing here and maybe not all of these ideas are winners but it's more than has come out of Delany's office (afaik). The member institutions of the Big Ten have shown that they suck at policing themselves appropriately more often than not. Delany is in unique position to put pressure on the conference members to get their priorities straight.
|08/19/2018 - 10:23pm||And the point goes to…||
And the point goes to FLwolvfan22...
I was also unaware that death through football was something that happened this frequently.
|06/12/2018 - 12:37pm||My orders are to attach…||
My orders are to attack Toledo but thats not an option for me... now what?
|03/07/2018 - 2:53pm||No Argument||
No argument there but Michigan's posted futures odds at the beginning of the tournament certainly had those outcomes baked in. Anyone outside MSU and Purdue would be expected to have to defeat them both for the futures bet to pay out. The only way Michigan +700 to win the BTT presents value is if both MSU and Purdue *both* suffer stunning upsets. Not a favorable gambling thesis there. In fact, Michgan's 4 games were all chalk matchups...+1500-ish was truly the actual fair value futures line for Michigan to win the 2018 BTT.
The excersize also holds for MSU (the BTT favorite). They were +250 at the start of the tournament implying a 40% chance of winning their 3 games. We know that wer favored by 12 pts vs Wisconsin and 5 pts vs Michigan, so the implied line (from +250 futurues bet) vs their presumed opponent in the final (Purdue) was MSU by 3. MSU was favored over Purdue by 3 at Breslin earlier in the year, expecting them to be favored by the same amount at a Neutral site requires...creative thinking. So taking MSU @ 250 to win the tournament required the expectation that the gap between the two teams had grown by a lot since their previous meeting OR that Purdue would not make it to the final.
Maybe Purdue's +275 to win presented value after Rutgers won two games but, again, betting on that to happen a priori would have been a sucker's bet.
TLDR: after you really tease it all out, ML roller is definitely the sharpest way to play tournament futures. AND you preserve the right to halt the roll if something you dont like (an injury for example) happens.
|03/06/2018 - 7:15pm||Rumor* has it||
Rumor* has it that this is the sharpest way to run** a futures bet (I.e: moneyline rollover) because the final payout is much much better than the a priori line.
*its not a rumor. Michigan was +700 to win the BTT; ML roller would have paid around +1500
**if one were so inclined
|11/28/2017 - 1:54pm||So, you'd rather the OP||
So, you'd rather the OP cherry pick data, ignore all context about how incredibly close most of those games were, and craft a monologue that you prefer. Is that it?
Your opinion doesn't bother me, but accusing someone of going out of their way to craft a narrative then turning around and doing the exact same thing you're accusing them of is pretty awesome. Well done!
|11/28/2017 - 1:38pm||Regarding Dantonio's Luck||
If you listen to Bill Connelly's podcast-- PAPN: Podcast Aint Played Nobody, and you should--you'll hear him talk about the mechanics of S&P quite a bit. In a nutshell, the 'P' in S&P relates to explosivity and that sheds a ton of light on MSU's relatively low S&P numbers. MSU's style of defense is awesome in success rate (the 'S' in S&P) but is liable to give up big plays (just like Don Brown). So, State's defensive explosivity tends to be fine but not awesome. Same goes for their offense, they're not a big play offense. Remember the 5 hour drive to close out the B1G Championship game against Iowa 2 years ago? So their S&P rating is lower than their record suggests because S&P rewards domination; that's not MSU's game.
Those qualities also lend themselves to tighter MOVs. A one score lead is usually enough for their defense while their offense holds the ball and grinds the clock. Dantonio's record in tight games isn't luck, that's just his plan.
Having said that, "Trouble with the snap" was straght up bullshit, and Urban Meyer taking the ball out of Ezekiell Elliot's hands later that year, and the B1G West Champion being less than tested every year... those are the ways Dantonio has gotten pretty lucky. Oh yeah, and he faced our back up QB and got a boatload of turnover help this year... I could keep going. Sigh...
Anyway, Good Diary!
|11/10/2017 - 12:37am||roger||
PFF is the only outet I know of that tries to grade every player on every play like UFR does. That said, I think UFR is on a different level of detail. Even Guru Conelly only assesses 1-5 players per play (ball handlers and tacklers).
It'd be dope if we could get UFR coverage for every B1G team. I'd be willing to grade a B1G team if it meant we'd get the whole conference graded evey week.