|02/18/2019 - 2:27pm||On Nick Ward, 4 weeks would…||
On Nick Ward, 4 weeks would put him back in time for the Big Ten Tournament, not the final regular season game @MSU. The regular season finale is in 3 weeks.
Also my favorite quote from MSU's game yesterday. WEIRD WHITE GUYS.
“Everyone keeps asking about that weird lineup,” said Goins, a 6-7 senior. “I don’t even know who was out there. All I know is, it was pretty much four-and-a-half white guys.”
|02/12/2019 - 4:02pm||Not sure how much weight to…||
Not sure how much weight to put into this statistic given the coaching turnover in the conference the last 2 years. Outside of Izzo, Thad Matta (OSU), Bo Ryan (Wisconsin), and Tom Crean (Indiana) may have the best records against Beilein during his tenure at Michigan, and they are all gone now.
I would be interested to see Beilein's record against all coaches (former and current) he faced in the Big Ten. The coaches during the first 5 years probably racked up some wins while Beilein built. My guess is his record is worst against Matta and Ryan. I think he was 7-14 vs. Matta and 8-8 vs. Crean.
Getting to even against Izzo would be quite an accomplishment considering the head start Izzo had. It did help we had MSU as a single play during Beilein's first two years, but I don't think a game or two changes the math much at this point.
Also, I was a little surprised to learn that he is .500 against Fran McCaffery. It hasn't felt like that, but Michigan has always seemed to have trouble winning in Iowa City.
|02/06/2019 - 1:49pm||Michigan schedule says @MSU…||
Michigan schedule says @MSU is an ESPN game with a potential start time of 4, 6, or 8PM. Duke @ North Carolina is the same day also scheduled for ESPN for 6 or 8PM.
If I were a betting man, I would guess the Duke @ UNC game will be at 8PM with Michigan @ MSU preceding it at 4 or 6PM. It is unlikely they will schedule those games head to head at the same time. Louisville @ Virginia is another ESPN game scheduled for that day at 4, 6, or 8PM.
|01/30/2019 - 7:40pm||Sanderson is good, but let's…||
Sanderson is good, but some injuries still happen no matter how good your S&C and training staff are. Let's not forget that injuries to LeVert, Albrecht, Walton and Irvin were brutal from 2014 to 2016.
|01/03/2019 - 12:40pm||Along with DT Kevin Givens…||
Along with DT Kevin Givens, PSU now has 5 early entries to the NFL Draft. I did not expect that number to be so high as I think a couple of the departures are marginal draft prospects, but I did not follow PSU that closely this season.
|01/03/2019 - 12:34pm||He broke his leg in the…||
He broke his leg in the Redbox Bowl. Brutal if he was considering going pro. Another example of why I will never criticize a draftable kid for sitting out a bowl game. Breaking your leg in a 7-6 loss in the Redbox Bowl is terrible.
|01/02/2019 - 5:17pm||I think it is. He was #15 in…||
I think it is. He was #15 in the NCAA in rushing yards. PSU has recruited well at RB so that will soften the blow, but when you combine the loss of Sanders with a new QB and 2-3 new starters on the OL, I think it magnfies the impact.
|01/02/2019 - 4:55pm||PSU's Ryan Bates also to the…||
PSU's Ryan Bates also to the NFL Draft. Their OL is taking a huge hit losing McGovern and Bates. If Miles Sanders declares as expected, PSU's offense is going to be very green. Franklin has recruited well though, but I think their offense could take a major step back next year.
|12/19/2018 - 10:16pm||Not yet. Martell might as…||
Not yet. Martell might as well stick around and try to fight for the starting job. You can always transfer during fall camp if you lose. It happened at multiple schools this past season where a QB left right before the season started to enroll somewhere else. Transferring now or 6 months from now is pretty much the same as he would have to sit out 2019 season in both cases.
|12/16/2018 - 7:30pm||I disagree and stated why,…||
I disagree and stated why, but I don't think we are going to see things the same on this. There are more factors at play than just looking at "how many tickets did your AD sell?," and I tried to state some of them for you. And I didn't even get into the price of the tickets. Michigan may have a large alumni base, the other B1G schools are not small potatoes. It's what makes the Big Ten such a big brand.
Like I mentioned above, I think there will be more than 13,000 Michigan fans there, but many of them will not have bought tickets through the official Michigan allotment with ticket resellers offering them well under face on Stubhub. Outback Bowl tickets for Iowa fans are going to be cheaper through the AD than through a ticket reseller.
|12/16/2018 - 7:09pm||Seriously. The UF-UCF…||
Seriously. The UF-UCF matchup was delivered to them on a silver platter. Florida officials deny having anything to do with it not happening, but I still don't buy it. Tickets still may not have sold well for that game with both schools so far from Phoenix, but it would have made great TV.
But there wasn't much the committee could do with the other matchups as the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl teams were both locked in. The only real choice they had was which SEC team they sent to Fiesta and Peach. Two SEC teams couldn't meet in a bowl game so Michigan-UCF was never happening. I think Michigan was locked for the Peach Bowl as they had UCF last year, and although they will never admit it, the other 4 New Year's Six Bowls without conference affiliation don't want to host the Group of 5 team, and there was no way the Peach Bowl was getting stuck with UCF two years in a row.
|12/16/2018 - 6:48pm||Not sure if you can really…||
Not sure if you can really compare to some other schools if that is what you are doing. Ohio State won the B1G championship, Urban Meyer's final game, and haven't been to the Rose Bowl in almost 10 years. OSU has only been to 2 Rose Bowls in the last 30 years which I found pretty unbelievable when I heard it. Of course that is going to sell out. Purdue is only a 5 hour drive from Nashville with a huge alumni base within a driveable radius of Nashville so some fans could do the game in a single-day or two trip. It would be the equivalent of Michigan playing a game in Chicago or Indianapolis.
I personally think the Michigan turnout is going to be better than expected with locals in the Atlanta area coming out for Michigan's first Peach Bowl, but those people may not buy their tickets through the school.
|12/16/2018 - 6:42pm||Yup. Going to make it harder…||
Yup. Going to make it harder to sell the allotment with the amount of tickets that will be on Stubhub and other resale sites. I am assuming a large chunk of the people taking advantage of the guarantee for tickets for next year's Peach Bowl CFP semis are ticket resellers. You can already buy tickets for more than $50 under face, and that price is going to drop considering how many tickets are for sale now.
|12/16/2018 - 6:20pm||Agreed.||
|12/16/2018 - 6:16pm||The Peach Bowl GA tickets…||
The Peach Bowl GA tickets are pretty much sold out because of that guarantee. But I don't think it is recent change as you had to purchase for TWO consecutive years (i.e. the two years the bowl is out of the CFP semifinal rotation) to be guaranteed your tickets for next year's semifinal game, and not a bad business decision by the people running the game to guarantee ticket sales on a year-to-year basis.
|12/16/2018 - 6:08pm||Are you asking because you…||
Are you asking because you have a random interest or contemplating buying tickets and are not sure where you will be seated?
The Michigan athletics website shows the sections Michigan was allotted. And if you call the Ticket Office, they will tell where they will seat you now as they have the tickets in hand. And if you are just curious, then you will have to call them and make an estimate based on what they offer you (any seat worse is most likely unsold) because I don't think anyone is going to release that information publicly unless it is sold out. And even if it is not sold out, they may still call it one with tickets still in hand.
|12/14/2018 - 5:12pm||For me the interesting thing…||
For me the interesting thing to look back on was that Michigan lost in-state David Reese in their pursuit of Devin Bush that year. Reese started as a freshman and made Freshman All-American teams while Bush sat behind Ben Gedeon in 2016. But I think there is no question that Michigan's prioritization of Devin Bush looks wise now. Reese probably would have been good here, and he has had a good career at Florida as a 3-year starter, but no Devin Bush.
Crazy that Michigan will line up against David Reese for a second time in the Peach Bowl too.
|12/13/2018 - 12:42pm||Tosh Lupoi was investigated…||
Tosh Lupoi was investigated by the NCAA for paying for recruits' tutoring services. NCAA never handed down any penalties, but Washington still paid him a six-figure buyout to go away as an assistant coach. Resurfaced at Alabama.
|12/13/2018 - 12:29pm||As a coach, I think he is…||
As a coach, I think he is. But most of these guys being rehabbed are usually brought in because they can RECRUIT and have connections to areas where Saban wants players. Recruiting is the name of the game.
|12/13/2018 - 12:25pm||I do wonder if people will…||
I do wonder if people will reevaluate this in a couple years. Lane Kiffin got off to a hot start at FAU and started to get mentioned again for Power 5 jobs, but year 2 was a step back. The Falcons offense is sputtering under Sarkisian. I have my doubts the Jeremy Pruitt or Mike Locksley hires will work out long term. Saban assistants prior to this did not have a great track record (McElwain, Muschamp and Dooley). I don't count Jimbo Fisher because he transitioned under Bobby Bowden to be coach-in-waiting so the program was already set up for him.
His one success storiy so far has been Kirby Smart, but Georgia was not in bad shape under Mark Richt who had rebuilt the program.
|12/13/2018 - 12:17pm||Just wait until Bobby…||
Just wait until Bobby Petrino shows up to work at Alabama.
|12/13/2018 - 12:02pm||Saban has hired Steve…||
Saban has hired Steve Sarkisian, Mike Locksley, Tosh Lupoi, and Lane Kiffin in the past couple years; all guys who have had checkered pasts. He even hired a rival's head coach the year after being fired as a human victory cigar. Why would anyone be surprised by this?
In fact, this was the most likely outcome if DJ Durkin was going to stay in college football. There is no other college football program that can shelter and protect guys like this other than Alabama and Saban, especially now that Urban Meyer is gone (Kevin Wilson, Zach Smith, and Greg Schiano). And you could argue that no one needs it more than Durkin as he is going to have a tougher time than all the characters listed above except for maybe Zach Smith.
|12/13/2018 - 10:47am||My god, I just looked at…||
My god, I just looked at their November schedule the next 3 years. Murder.
I think it will take a perfect storm for someone to win there. Dantonio had the Rodriguez-Hoke Michigan decade, Tressel NCAA scandal and firing at OSU in 2011, and Sandusky fallout with Paterno firing and NCAA sanctions at PSU in 2012 to help boost him. I don't think that is happening again for a long time. Again, the question must be asked, what deal with the devil does Dantonio have?
|12/13/2018 - 10:24am||He's been on staff there…||
He's been on staff there twice for a total of almost 10 years. His first stint was from 1997-2002. His second stint was from 2012-15. That is a pretty significant chunk. He did have commitment from Haskins, but I think it is stretch to assume Chase Young would have committed there just because of him. Most of the elite players at Maryland during that time he lost out after being in the top 3. And Kaindoh had decommitted before Locksley's fate had been determined.
I guess it is different as the head coach, but I still think if you don't win, it won't matter how good your connections to the local recruiting base are. Durkin had hired a couple guys who were well connected to the local scene in Mike London and Aazar Abdul-Rahim, and it didn't matter much. Add in the fact it is going to be hard for him to recruit nationally with his record at New Mexico and some of the off-field issues that got him fired there. That stuff is going to come up in negative recruiting. It may not affect him in the DMV, but it will in other places.
|12/13/2018 - 9:24am||I guess, but he still has to…||
I guess, but he still has to win games. Locksley was on staff there for years and only left a couple years ago so it is not like this is a huge sea change. And Michigan was running second to OSU and PSU for a lot of prospects there so I think it is going to affect them more than us.
I still think the top 150 recruits are going to want to see wins there first before buying in.
|12/11/2018 - 5:37pm||I am with you on this. I…||
I am with you on this. I understand its importance to the program as a whole, but most of recruiting coverage are like tabloids or paparazzi. I think Sam Webb does a great job covering the program, but I don't expect him to know the inner workings of every prospective teenager and family Michigan is recruiting. Anyone expecting that is going to be disappointed.
And honest talk: one individual recruit is not going to make or break the program almost all of the time. And the exceptions are usually a QB. I remember when Michigan landed Rashan Gary, but does anyone believe the trajectory or results of the last 3 years are any different with or without him?
|12/03/2018 - 11:33pm||Been discussed before but…||
Been discussed before but that is using their BPI formula which currently has Michigan ranked #12 and NW #31. It's a predictive formula that is hard to explain and does not look similar to KenPom or T-Rank. It uses preseason projections in their rankings similar to FPI, but KenPom and T-Rank still have some preseason ranking baked in this early in the season and does not look like that.
|11/29/2018 - 12:29pm||I never said it was a…||
I never said it was a negative. I am talking about evaluating his production, performance, and athleticism RELATIVE to his age. The reason I brought Burke and Stauskas into the discussion as they are Michigan players who went pro at the same age as Brazdeikis but were sophomores who had All-American years, went pro in weak drafts, and still barely cracked the top 10. Would we be having this conversation if Brazdeikis were a sophomore? I don't think so. He has played 7 games, and he doesn't even appear on most legitimate mock drafts. So why are we talking about him going in the top 5-10? People need to pump the brakes a little.
|11/29/2018 - 12:04pm||It's actually a weak draft…||
It's actually a weak draft this year especially compared to last year. There is a huge dropoff after the first 5-10 picks. The good news is that the 2020 Draft is supposed to be worse.
|11/29/2018 - 12:01pm||I agree that if he gets a…||
I agree that if he gets a 1st round grade this year, he is and probably should be gone. But I don't think we are there yet. He is just getting on scouting reports. Roy Williams couldn't even pronounce his name during his pregame presser. As Brazdeikis gets more scouted, his game is going to get more tested. It just seems people are jumping to some crazy talk with little evidence to back it up. He has played a handful of games and is not projected to be a 1st Round pick at this point. I am not sure why we are talking about the top 10 right now.
|11/29/2018 - 11:54am||True, but it doesn't mean it…||
True, but it doesn't mean it wasn't necessarily considered. There are exceptions, but anyone who doesn't think age isn't a factor when evaluating prospects for the NBA is fooling themselves.
|11/29/2018 - 11:51am||It is not a necessarily a…||
It is not a necessarily a negative, but you have to account for it and evaluate him against prospects his own age for the NBA. You are trying to project his ceiling and potential as a player, and his age is part of that. It doesn't matter for Michigan or college basketball, but for an NBA team drafting him, it would definitely be something that would be considered.
|11/29/2018 - 11:41am||Huh? Zion Williamson is 18…||
Huh? Zion Williamson is 18. RJ Barrett is 18. Cam Reddish turned 19 in September. Brazdeikis is going to turn 20 in January.
For comparison, Stauskas turned 20 during his sophomore year of basketball. Brazdeikis's age will be a significant thing in his NBA evaluation. An NBA team will probably look and evaluate him more as a sophomore than a freshman. No NBA mock draft even has Brazdeikis in the 1st Round right now so I think calling him top 5-10 pick is ludicrous at this point.
|11/29/2018 - 11:35am||That is some ludicrous talk…||
That is some ludicrous talk. He is a 20-year old freshman. I doubt a team takes him in the top 10 based on that alone. I could see late lottery or end of 1st round, but I don't see top 10. Stauskas and Burke barely cracked the top 10, and they had All-America seasons at the same age with more film.
|11/29/2018 - 11:33am||I don't think so, but if he…||
I don't think so, but if he is, it will mean Michigan has a huge year. I would sign up for that.
|11/29/2018 - 11:10am||I doubt that has much to do…||
I doubt that has much to do with it, but Tennessee does have a more appealing depth chart at QB for recruit looking to come in a play right away with little competition.
I will be interested to see if they take a transfer this year because there is not much after Jarrett Guarantano.
|11/29/2018 - 11:04am||So how do you explain…||
So how do you explain Tennessee getting blown out by Vanderbilt & Missouri to end the season and missing out on a bowl in Year 1 for Pruitt? Does that fit the narrative? Las Vegas had set the win total at 5.5 for Tennessee and 9 for Michigan before the season? So which team (or both or none) underachieved this year?
It sounds like Tennessee has been selling him on reclassifying and enrolling in 2019 which would not be an option at Michigan. That may have been the game-changer in the recruitment, but we will see. Kind of weird that a 2020 QB would commit now to a school without an OC as well. Wouldn't you want to see who was hired for that position and the relationship you have with him?
|11/28/2018 - 10:44am||Congrats to Loeffler. He get…||
Congrats to Loeffler. He get to come back home to NE Ohio so hopefully it works out for him. He can't be worse than Mike Jinks.
|11/19/2018 - 12:17pm||So you are going to ban a…||
So you are going to ban a Big Ten official from doing Big Ten games? How does that work? John O'Neill is a Big Ten official so if you want him out, he would have to be fired by the conference.
On a side note, Dan Capron was removed from the Big Ten after a poor performance in 2002, but he eventually got reinstated to the pool of Big Ten officials.
|11/19/2018 - 12:11pm||I think Capron is a…||
I think Capron is a possibility, but he worked The Game the last time it was in Columbus so I don't think it is going to happen twice in a row especially with how much publicity the officiating got in The Game in 2016. I think O'Neill and Kluczynski are out because they did the Michigan and OSU games last week respectively. Ron Snodgrass did The Game last year so I doubt he does it two years in a row. My guess is it is going to be Mike Cannon or Jerry McGinn.
|11/19/2018 - 11:53am||Definitely going to be a…||
Definitely going to be a strength on strength matchup. OSU is the best offense we have faced all year, and their style of play is much different than Wisconsin's, who is the second best. I don't think we have faced a passer as good as Haskins so it will be a test for our defense.
The stats look like we should have an advantage with our offense facing their defense, and Michigan is going to have to capitalize on that end based on the numbers.
Hopefully, they bring the edit function back at some point for original posts. I would have liked to add the FEI data later in the week when it is released.
|11/19/2018 - 11:15am||538 has always been lower on…||
538 has always been lower on Michigan making the playoff. Their formula somehow uses the committee's past behavior in determining their forecast for who makes the playoff. My guess is the head-to-head loss to another playoff contender Notre Dame is the reason they have our odds lower. It is the only thing that makes sense to me. If you set the model to have ND lose to USC, it raises our playoff odds more than any other team and shifts us back above OSU and Oklahoma.
|11/19/2018 - 10:59am||I could be wrong but aren't…||
I could be wrong but aren't some of the officials not fixed to a particular crew? I thought there are 8-12 officials on the field, but only some of them are in full-time crew and the rest are contracted out from a pool of officials in the area?
I don't know that much about it, but that is what I thought.
My guess is we are going to get Jerry McGinn's or Mike Cannon's crew, but there is no way of knowing until gameday. O'Neill worked our game last week, and Kluczynski worked OSU's game last week. So those two are probably out. That would leave McGinn, Cannon or Dan Capron most likely. Capron worked The Game the last time in Columbus so I have feeling it won't be him again. Ron Snodgrass worked The Game last year so I doubt he would get the gig two years in a row. That is why I am betting on McGinn or Cannon.
|11/18/2018 - 5:44pm||Michigan has the Ken Pom and…||
Michigan has the Ken Pom and Torvik #1 ranked Defense after today's win. Beilein continues to amaze as that is something I never thought I would see in his program. #7 overall in KenPom.
|11/18/2018 - 11:11am||Anyone who tries to compare…||
Anyone who tries to compare Michigan's resume or strength of schedule to UCF is just plain stupid. I am willing to entertain an argument where someone makes a case for UCF based on eye test, common opponents, or being undefeated, but that is about it. And to add to the ridiculousness, UCF plays one less game than Michigan this year because the game @UNC was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence.
I would look up the numbers and put them here, but it would be such a colossal waste of time that I am not even going to bother.
|11/15/2018 - 5:39pm||It is surprising this kid…||
It is surprising this kid did not get noticed by any other schools. His HS football team has other Division I prospects (the QB is a Wisconsin commit ranked in the top 100) so it's not like he hasn't been scouted or his film not seen. He must have had a huge senior year. I think this may have been his first year playing football as well.
This coaching staff has a good hit rate on prospects other schools don't even sniff so I have faith this kid can play. Especially with the season Michigan is having and the other potential prospects on the board.
|11/12/2018 - 1:57pm||True, I have noticed the…||
True, I have noticed the late season Rutgers and Indiana games are slowly becoming a tradition. The outlier is coming though. 2025: Michigan plays @PSU and OSU back-to-back to end the season. Assuming the B1G has not rid itself of its Rutgers infestation by then.
|11/12/2018 - 1:31pm||The penultimate weekend of…||
The penultimate weekend of college football has been garbage for years now. The SEC teams all schedule FCS or garbage FBS opponents for a virtual bye before their rivalry games. That means 20% of the college football inventory for the week is guaranteed to be garbage. B1G usually does not do primetime games this late in the season. Clemson and FSU almost never have a big game the week before their in-state rivalry games. Have to hope that you get a good primetime game from the Pac-12 or Big 12.
|11/12/2018 - 1:25pm||8PM night game at Morgantown…||
8PM night game at Morgantown, WV in November? Have fun OU.
|11/11/2018 - 3:34pm||"12-1 is 12-1"
Go look at…
"12-1 is 12-1"
This statement is ludicrous. Go look at Cincinnati's football record in the same span of years that you are citing. It's better. Would you argue that Cincinnati is a better football job and program than Louisville or Purdue? You have to account for being in Big East/AAC, especially during the last years of its existence after it had been gutted. Louisville didn't even go 12-1 in the Big East. They went 12-1 in the AAC after losing West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
"Louisville has a Heisman winner at Louisville under Petrino, who we assume is a worse coach than Brohm. Imagine the ceiling with Brohm."
That is a terrible assumption. Petrino was a really good football coach with a track record from winning at Arkansas and his first stint at Louisville. Look at Arkansas post-Petrino. Look at Louisville post-Petrino. Petrino made those programs better, not the other way around. There are theories that his Louisville program may have fallen off during his second stint because he had trouble recruiting after his scandal at Arkansas. But I think to assume that peak Brohm will be better than peak Petrino is not necessarily a given. And Lamar Jackson was once in a generation player. And they still were averaging 5 losses a year. Just because you had a Lamar Jackson doesn't mean you are guaranteed to find another one because of him. Purdue has one of the richest QB traditions in college football with Drew Brees, Bob Griese, Len Dawson, Jim Everett, and Gary Danielson. How does that factor in your analysis?
"How many loses has Purdue averaged in the B1G West in that span, which you acknowledge is a weaker division?"
The B1G West didn't exist until 2014 so there has not been enough time to evaluate how being in the weaker division can help those programs. But it is easy to look at examples like Wisconsin and Northwestern to see how it could benefit them.
"Every Louisville booster will break out the check book for Brohm, money won't keep him at Purdue. Also I don't see why the AD is in turmoil. They have a new full time AD after firing the one who oversaw the Pitino/Petrino era, have a new basketball coach, fired Petrino and no longer have Papa John's involved. If anything their AD is rapidly cleaning house and removing any turmoil that was there."
Papa John is their biggest booster. Losing him may not be a net positive in the long run for the success of their athletic department. Louisville does have a lot of boosters, but Purdue isn't broke either. Their AD has made a significant commitment to the football program with new facilities in the works. Louisville has significant financial commitments to pay off Petrino, Pitino, and Jurich. And Brohm has a lot of young talent secured in Purdue while he will be building with a more challenging roster in Louisville. Does it make sense to spend another 2-3 years of his coaching prime to get his program to where Purdue already is? Maybe coach at Purdue for another 3-4 years and gamble on yourself parlaying that into a top 10 college job or NFL?