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Date Title Body
02/18/2019 - 8:37pm This is the VT transfer QB…

This is the VT transfer QB and son of Fred Jackson for anyone else confused.

02/18/2019 - 11:51am 1) Their size and ability to…

1) Their size and ability to draw fouls. 3 of their 4 best players are 6'7 or taller and their entire team enjoys getting in the paint, playing physical and trying to finish around the rim/draw fouls. Their 283rd in 3P% and 341 in 3P Rate so they don't shoot 3's often or well. What they do well is they're 11th in the country in getting to the line and 35th at getting OREBs. A road game vs a team with multiple big men and who all draw fouls might spell a lot of trouble for us (we haven't done well on the road recently, we struggle when Teske gets in foul trouble and that seems to happen more frequently on the road).

2) I feel a lot better about our chances and expect us to win Saturday. We know how big no Ward and Langford is, their offense is all Winston and they have no one else who can create shots.

I actually think Tillman is a very good player, very Ward-esque and not just a "put backs and transition buckets" guy that people here seem to think. He has very similar efficiency numbers to Ward but with smaller usage, so as a larger part of the offense he can probably give you most things Ward would have. The major issue with losing Ward is now all those minutes go to Tillman who I don't think has the conditioning. But he is a good player and also is above average at drawing fouls which could be an issue.

That being said I still think there are a few defined ways MSU can win. The most obvious is Winston going off and dominating, which I don't think is likely with Z and Matthews able to defend him but possible. The second is similar to how the PSU game went. We play poorly and miss a lot of shots on offense with a few defensive lapses also allowing McQuaid/Ahrens to get open 3's. In a messy game that ends up being the difference. The third is we revert back to early game UNC and can't stop their transition. I think the second one is most likely and very possible, but I still expect a win.

3) As said we already have an outright B1G title. But for the second part we don't get a 1. We're a 2 seed right now and have road games against Minnesota, Maryland and MSU left. We haven't beaten a tourney team on the road besides Nova in November. If we lose 2 or 3 of those, which seems most likely at this point, I don't think that's enough to win the B1G, especially with Purdue's remaining schedule.

02/17/2019 - 7:24pm I wouldn't say that's true…

I wouldn't say that's true for Tillman. He shoots around 75% at the rim with 70% of those being assisted, very similar numbers to Ward but on smaller volume. He also shoots close to 50% on other 2's, is a 70% (80% in conference) FT shooter and has made 4 3's. He's a fairly skilled big man.

MSU doesn't run offense through Tillman like they try to through Ward. They don't make it a point to post him up and give him post touches. I think part of that's because he spends time on the court with Ward so he loses those touches to Ward. Without Ward I think his usage increases and Tillman will still be efficient, but I don't think he can handle the same usage that Ward has.

The biggest reason this hurts is MSU is that I think Ward and Tillman were bith at their best playing 50% of minutes. I don't know that either has more conditioning than that so having them going balls to the wall for 20 minutes each a game worked well. No Ward means Tillman has to eat more minutes and he either gets gassed and is ineffective after 20 minutes or he plays slower to conserve energy so he's only 75%ish of what he is on the court now. The other option is a lot more bench minutes for MSU, and whether that's a small lineup or with Kithier that doesn't bode well for MSU.

02/17/2019 - 6:50pm This is big. MSU still has…

This is big. MSU still has Tillman and Goins, plus Kithier has been pretty decent as a freshman so they have some depth. But they start and like to play two bigs so only having Kithier off the bench is not going to go well for them.

Tillman will be the guy expected to replace Ward. He has pretty similar numbers when looking at Torvik but he only plays 50% of minutes and his usage is a lot lower than Ward's. I really don't see how MSU gets consistent non Winston scoring now.

02/07/2019 - 5:45pm That could be true long term…

That could be true long term but that doesn't mean he's draft ready today. It's also not saying much since this Michigan team doesn't have many or any elite NBA prospects.

He's a SG, whose best skill is shooting, and he's shooting 34% on 3's since B1G play restarted. I posted the link above but on 4/5 major site mock drafts Poole didn't make an appearance. This could all change by seasons end but as of today I don't think he'd even get drafted.

02/07/2019 - 5:12pm I just found a link to a…

I just found a link to a HoopsHype prospect ranking based off the average of 5 major site's mocks, and Poole only even shows up on one mock. He's ranked 67th, Matthews is 39th, and Iggy is 36th showing up on 4/5 mocks (and twice in the 2nd round). So Poole wouldn't even be drafted according to that and Iggy is a second rounder. Both haven't had NBA feedback yet and would be 21 at the 2020 draft so I feel like entering their names, getting feedback, and coming back makes the most sense.

I doubt Nunez would transfer. He was the lowest ranked recruit who went to prep school, I think he and everyone was aware he'd be sitting for a bit before he played. True about Davis though, he's a RS SO now so unless he graduates a year early he's not graduating after this year.

02/07/2019 - 4:05pm Poole leaving early would…

Poole leaving early would seem to be a massive mistake honestly. Matthews and Brazdeikis are at least showing up as 2nd rounders on some draft boards but Poole has fallen off most of them. And it's not he's been playing that well recently to indicate a jump in his stock. I would really be shocked if Poole left early.

I think it's a forgone conclusion that Matthews goes pro after this year. Iggy and Poole are both only showing up as 2nd rounders on some draft boards and have plenty of time and ability to raise their stock, so I would think/hope both are planning to come back as of now. If another scholarship is opening up, my guess would be a transfer. Davis (behind Teske/Johns and next year probably behind Castleton too) or even Brooks (3rd guard right now but not playing well and at risk of falling behind Nunez/DJD next year) would make more sense to me.

02/06/2019 - 1:31pm Yeah it's an interesting…

Yeah it's an interesting case though. He's planning on doing a 2 year mission trip after his freshman year so who knows how football ready he'll be by then.

02/05/2019 - 9:35pm Good thing we're fans of the…

Good thing we're fans of the IMichigan Wolverines

02/05/2019 - 9:24pm Just saying I called it…

Just saying I called it people (on page 2 since MGoBlog is broken)

02/05/2019 - 9:01pm If we can guarantee no shot…

If we can guarantee no shot for the other team I'd rather dribble out the clock than shoot early and give them a chance to score again.

02/05/2019 - 8:23pm Post up Isaiah Livers. Never…

Post up Isaiah Livers. Never thought that'd work against Rutgers

02/02/2019 - 8:45pm Also don't be surprised if…

Also don't be surprised if MSU drops a 3rd straight against Illinois Tuesday. Road game against a better than their record Illinois who can force a tom of turnovers, and MSU is turnover prone.

02/02/2019 - 8:41pm TIED FOR FIRST AGAIN IN THE…

TIED FOR FIRST AGAIN IN THE B1G BOIS

02/01/2019 - 1:26pm Quick note: YGM was a…

Quick note: YGM was a sophomore this past season, not a junior. My mistake.

02/01/2019 - 9:59am Michigan is currently the…

Michigan is currently the last 1 seed on BracketMatrix with Gonzaga as a 2 so that would check out. I'd rather be a 2 anywhere else honestly.

01/30/2019 - 8:59pm In Izzo's statement today he…

In Izzo's statement today he referred to him as the team's 2nd best guard defender. You said it yourself, but MSU's defense as a whole has benefited from 3 point luck this year. MSU has a top 40 3P% defense but allows teams to take 37.1% of shots from 3, which is 124th in the country. We're also working on an 8 game sample size here, which is a very small sample size to judge off of. I tend to believe Izzo here.

Also it's no secret that Langford isn't an overly efficient player. But MSU's issue is that right now they have 1 guy who can create his own shot (Winston), and 2 legit scorers (Winston and Ward). Like you said taking him being out and moving some of those possessions to the more efficient Ward/Winston isn't bad for them and has kept their offense at the same overall efficiency. Ward and Winston are better than most B1G PGs/Cs so those two can generally score in high volumes keeping their efficiency. The issue they'll run into is against good/elite teams in the tournament when one or both is taken away.

Some examples. Against Kansas Ward had an ORTG of 50.6, Winston was at 100.7, and Langford was at 122.3. Against Texas they were 95, 124.5, and 153.6 respectively. Obviously those are just two games, but two neutral site games against high quality teams that Langford either won for his team or was the reason the game was close. This last game against Purdue, however, Winston was at 123.1 but Ward had an ORTG of 67.3. With only an efficient Winston they struggled scoring the entire game except for the 10 minute period they made their run in the 2nd half.

Langford is a good at bad shots player. He was a 44% other 2 shooter before he went down on very high volume. That's a decent shooting percentage for an inefficient shot, but he was able to get that shot consistently. If MSU is in a game where Ward and/or Winston is struggling or in foul trouble, no one else on that roster can create a shot. It's not a huge issue in the B1G like I said since most teams don't have a guy who can guard either Winston or Ward, but elite level teams will. Langford himself was prone to having a really bad day and him playing wouldn't be a guarantee to save the offense when it's struggling, but he was capable of it when no one else on this roster is. That's the issue.

 

01/30/2019 - 8:30pm Yup, which includes…

Yup, which includes postseason play. From the rulebook, 12.8.4 on "Hardship Waivers":

"Only scheduled or completed competition against outside participants during the playing season that concludes with the NCAA championship"

Link

 

 

01/30/2019 - 7:17pm Probably. Even before…

Probably. Even before Langford's injury Michigan matched up great with MSU in the sense that our best 3 defenders were matched with their best 3 offensive players. Then we could "hide" Iggy and Poole on lower usage guys like Goins/McQuaid respectively.

Now Matthews can either take McQuaid or you can let him and Poole switch between McQuaid/Ahrens/Henry when 2 of those 3 are in. The lineup I would think MSU could have the most success with offensively is Tillman at the 4 and Ward at the 5, but that could be exploited the other way.

01/30/2019 - 6:54pm Eh disagree. Even MSU fans…

Eh disagree. Even MSU fans are saying no Langford drops this team's ceiling. He's the only guy besides Winston who can create his own shot. His backup Ahrens has been hurt all year and Izzo said he probably will never be 100% this season.

The other guys behind them are true freshmen. Aaron Henry plays more but has basically an average ORTG on less than 16% usage and turns the ball over almost 25% of the time. The other is Gabe Brown who has played 17% of minutes with 12% usage.

MSU is still really good and will beat up on the majority of the mediocre B1G. But this probably leaves them one step below elite/national title caliber.

01/30/2019 - 6:48pm MSU spent a lot of time…

MSU spent a lot of time recruiting Vernon Carey, Isaiah Stewart and Keion Brooks this year. All 5 star big men. They have already missed on Carey and Stewart and seem likely to miss on Brooks too.

So recruits agree.

01/30/2019 - 6:44pm In case anyone is wondering:…

In case anyone is wondering:

You can get a medical redshirt in basketball if you play in 30% or less of your team's games. Langford has played in 13 games this year, meaning MSU will need to play 44+ games for him to redshirt. MSU will play 31 regular season games. Even if MSU dropped to the bottom 4 in the B1G and and had no bye in the B1G tournament, MSU would play 42 if they make the B1G tournament final and the National Title Game. 

So not possible.

01/30/2019 - 6:31pm And of course a typo in the…

And of course a typo in the title. Change that to year please mods.

01/30/2019 - 4:41pm I wouldn't be so quick to…

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Providence.

They're 13-7 overall, 3-4 in conference. They lost to Wichita St. and UMass in the non con which isn't great, but have a neutral win vs South Carolina and wins @BC and @Texas.

In conference they've won 3 of their last 4. 2 of their 4 losses are to Nova and Marquette. They've been playing without one of their best players, freshman AJ Reeves, since the UMass game and he just came back in their last game.

Most importantly the Big East is thoroughly mediocre. Nova is 7-0 in conference, Marquette is 7-1, and all 8 other teams are 3-4 or 3-5. Providence is part of the 3-4 group and already played 2 of their 4 Nova/Marquette games. They can very reasonably be the 3rd or 4th best team in the Big East by seasons end, which is a bid worthy team.

01/30/2019 - 11:40am Neither Poole or Iggy are…

Neither Poole or Iggy are showing up on most draft boards as of now. When they are they're 2nd rounders so with multiple years of eligibility both would be projected to come back.Things could change if one or both gets hot but right now I don't think either go.

01/29/2019 - 11:30pm Also this + X's triple…

Also this + X's triple double should warrant some muppets

01/29/2019 - 8:56pm Lol at NC State playing hit…

Lol at NC State playing hit the road Jack when Jack Salt fouls out

01/29/2019 - 2:01pm Should probably note that…

Should probably note that the small lineup OSU used against Nebraska with Andre at the 5 was a zone look. They got 14 out of 15 stops in that zone look and was the main reason they pulled away in the 2nd half. We'll see it tonight.

01/29/2019 - 12:14pm Disagree. This year's…

Disagree. This year's Virginia team is a legit title contender. 

The Virginia teams that normally flop in the early rounds are elite defensive teams that have good at best offenses. Last year was a great example, #1 defense to KP but the #30 offense and they didn't have one of their best players.

The only Tony Bennett Virginia team to make it to the Elite 8 was the 2016 tournament team, a 1 seed with the #7 KP defense but the #8 offense. The only time he's had a top 10 offense and defense to KP, he made the Elite 8.

This year's team has the #2 offense and #2 defense to KP. If this holds come tournament time I think this is a Final 4 team.

01/28/2019 - 11:20pm I'm waiting on a diary to…

I'm waiting on a diary to post once some OpenLive issues get fixed but that is wrong, Army loses 13 starters (11 on offense+defense, plus their punter and kicker).

01/28/2019 - 1:11pm Yeah Duke lost that game…

Yeah Duke lost that game without Jones for most of it and without Reddish. That's like if we lost to OSU tomorrow night, in OT, without X or Matthews/Poole. Still not a great loss, but the context is massive.

01/25/2019 - 7:03pm Welp Indiana has two scorers…

Welp Indiana has two scorers and one already has 3 fouls while they have 2 points (0 FGS), 9 minutes in. Can't ask for a better start.

01/24/2019 - 7:53pm That logic is so backwards…

That logic is so backwards it hurts.

Yeah sure, kids know coaches are going to leave. Coaches also know kids are going to transfer. Why is it an accepted truth that coaches leave but you're vilifying the kids for leaving? Especially since the coaches have more power than the kids, the kids who literally aren't legal adults going through this process.

You're acting like college should be a legally binding contract where kids shouldn't be allowed to leave, even if coaches are duping them (which you admitted happens). Or even if it just isn't what they expected that they shouldn't be allowed to go to a place that better serves their needs. Should normal undergrads be forced to stay at a school for 3 years too? Because Magnus says so?

We're clearly not going to agree here, so I'm not going to waste finger energy anymore, but I sincerely hope most prospective college athletes aren't getting this advice. Because all you're doing is helping the coaches at the kids expense.

01/24/2019 - 7:11pm Okay sure, they're there for…

Okay sure, they're there for free. If a non student athlete was on scholarship and wanted to transfer, they wouldn't have to sit out a year. Why should a student athlete?

Sure they have perks, but they also bring in millions of dollars to the school. What kind of backwards ass logic is that? You bring in revenue to the school moreso than any other student, so you have the most restrictions on you?

Coaches are adults who can leave with no penalty at any point, they also know the job and what they signed up for. 

And fuck the fans. Any adult who thinks their "investment" in an 18 year old's college decisions should matter can fuck off, they're delusional and pathetic.

I don't get the point of your second paragraph. A student athlete transferring in this scenario runs the same risks of losing credits, etc. Why should an athlete have an added penalty of sitting out a year competitively? Same with the coaches, they run the same risks currently as any other employee you mentioned when they switch jobs. Why should they have extra penalties applied to them?

Yeah, there are real world penalties. And coaches in the current climate face them like any other employee. So do student athletes, they have the same risks as any other student if they transfer. You act like students and coaches face no risks or penalties as is, which is just flat out wrong. Why should and 18 year old kid be penalized even more for being an elite athlete who helps bring his school millions of dollars, of which he sees none?

01/24/2019 - 7:01pm Also the transfer portal is…

Also the transfer portal is irrelevant to this, this kid would have been able to transfer just as easily any year prior. All that's changed is the method for how it's done, aka the portal.

01/24/2019 - 6:46pm That seems like an awful…

That seems like an awful take.

Students should be able to transfer without penalties, like any other student.

Coaches should be allowed to change jobs without penalties, like any other profession.

If it's "not good for the game", so be it. It's a game of throw ball, we'll all be okay if the quality takes a minor drop in this one area.

01/24/2019 - 1:58pm I mean like I said I think…

I mean like I said I think Duke or UVA is #1. But predictive quality rankings =/ AP Poll rankings. Polls like the AP are generally used as resume rankings, not predictive polls. Otherwise we'd see Purdue in the top 10.

Based on resume once again I agree UVA's is better and should be #1. But am I up in arms that Tennessee is #1? No, they have a plethora of Q1 wins including a top line win over Gonzaga, and their only single digit games before these last two were Gonzaga and Kansas. I can buy Tennessee as #1.

I also hope you're consistent with your logic saying that Tennessee shouldn't be #1 because they're #5 in KenPom and Torvik, because they're ahead of Michigan in both and if Michigan had won Saturday I'm sure you'd say we deserve #1.

01/23/2019 - 11:38pm Tennessee beat Gonzaga and…

Tennessee beat Gonzaga and their only loss is to Kansas (with Azubuike ) in OT on a neutral. They may not be #1 (it's probably Duke or UVA) but their one of the top 5 teams in the country and deserving of the rank.

01/22/2019 - 9:04pm This team has to improve to…

This team has to improve to catch up to MSU

01/21/2019 - 12:41pm Even when Iggy tried to foul…

Even when Iggy tried to foul Happ the first time he didn't have the ball. That was the right call no matter what.

01/19/2019 - 2:30pm Any updates regarding the…

Any updates regarding the diary issue? I'm sitting on one I'm trying to post because I needed OpenLive to make it look nice but OpenLive won't let me publish

01/18/2019 - 8:32pm Them beating Maryland would…

Them beating Maryland would have actually been nice...Maryland is 7-1 in conference, would have given us a cushion if we lose tomorrow.

Maryland is @MSU on Monday.

01/16/2019 - 12:54am OSU's scholarship QBs next…

OSU's scholarship QBs next year are now Fields, RS Fr Matthew Baldwin and RS Sr Chris Chugunov.

Chugunov started his career at WVU and played in 10 games where he was pretty mediocre/bad. He grad transferred to OSU last year with 2 years left and didn't play.

Baldwin was a borderline 3/4 star QB out of Texas. His best offers out of HS besides OSU were Iowa or Kentucky. Baldwin redshirted last year after tearing his ACL his senior year of HS.

If Fields doesn't get his waiver, gets hurt, or just isn't good OSU is in a real bad spot QB depth wise.

01/13/2019 - 9:33pm Agreed. Pathetic look by…

Agreed. Pathetic look by Warde

01/13/2019 - 9:26pm Statement from Warde

Statement from Warde

01/13/2019 - 8:24pm 2 Matthews, 1 Simpson

2 Matthews, 1 Simpson

01/13/2019 - 8:18pm Michigan's shooting 7/14…

Michigan's shooting 7/14 from 3 and 14/17 from 2. Is that good?

01/13/2019 - 7:52pm *Jon

*Jon

01/13/2019 - 7:52pm 2010

2010

01/13/2019 - 7:35pm I like this start

I like this start