Win Total Recalibration, along with Seeding

Submitted by StephenRKass on January 13th, 2018 at 7:10 PM

With beating MSU this afternoon, Michigan has the signature win that Brian here at mgoblog and Dylan at umhoops have been pining for. As mentioned in the post above we are now at 16 kenpom. How would you recalibrate the win total, and the seeding?

So far, our record is 15 - 4, with 4 - 2 in the conference. Looking at the remaining schedule, the only loss I feel confident in predicting is Purdue. I suppose randomness means one more defeat beyond that. That would leave Michigan at 25 - 6 total, 14 - 4 in the Big 10. 

  • W  vs. MD
  • W  @ Nebraska
  • W  vs. Rutgers
  • L   @  Purdue
  • W  vs. NW
  • W  vs. MN
  • W  @ NW
  • W  @ Wisconsin
  • W  vs. Iowa
  • W  vs. OSU
  • W  @ PSU
  • W  @ MD

Well sure, I've been drinking the koolaid, and am drunk on the win today. But Livers has really come on. With Livers starting, I don't really see a weakness in our starting unit. Poole is still improving, as is Teske. With the two of them and Robinson, we have a solid bench.

As far as our opponents go, Maryland and Minnesota are now crippled with roster losses. Northwestern has reverted to form. And I really don't see a loss to Iowa or PSU. The hardest game left besides Purdue would be OSU, but I think they will come back to earth, and beyond Bates-Diop, I don't think they have the depth to stay with Michigan. Plus, Michigan is now devising a better plan to deal with the switching.

I also see Michigan winning at least a couple games in the Big 10 Tournament. And if they continue this way, I see a much higher seed for the NCAA tourney, maybe a 4 - 5 seed.

Anyway, what's your take? 

Comments

StephenRKass

January 13th, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^

I don't think we'll win the Big 10 regular season title unless we do even better than what I predict. Purdue and OSU are two games up on Michigan. Looking at OSU's schedule, they can lose away to Purdue, and to Michigan. But they'd also have to lose to another team or two for Michigan to catch up. NW? PSU? I don't think so. They already beat MSU, and don't face them again.

Regarding Purdue, we'd definitely have to beat them on the road. And they'd have to lose to MSU on the road. But we'd still have to win all our games to just pull even with them. Again, don't think that'll happen.

jmblue

January 13th, 2018 at 7:17 PM ^

I don't want to write off that Purdue game.  We know we can play with them. 

I feel like we'll probably have a couple off nights coming up but yeah . . . looking at that schedule, we could go on a run.  

TrueBlue2003

January 14th, 2018 at 1:22 AM ^

but they probably won't shoot as poorly from two (15-36).  They missed a lot of bunnies such that I thought it probably evened out with their good 3pt shooting. 

That's going to be a really tough game in a really tough place to play. Purdue is the best team in the conference, and I've been saying that for a while.  I thought we had a good chance at MSU, and I think our chances are much longer at Purdue. 

We're playing really well though, and other than FTs from two of our three starting guards, I don't know what other weakness we have.  Wouldn't count us out. 

 

TroubleWithThePitch2

January 13th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^

I see us losing @ Purdue, and we will lose one other game that will cause this fan base to go nuts and the #FireBelien haters will be out in full force. But the rest of the season looks very promising.

TrueBlue2003

January 14th, 2018 at 1:27 AM ^

when we got screwed against Purdue at home.  Had to have that one. Purdue has a very easy schedule remaining.  They don't go to OSU, they only play MSU once.  They're projected to go 16-2 and I wouldn't be surprised if they go 17-1.  As much as I like our team, we aren't winning out.

We're playing for a top 4 seed and a (near) home weekend to start the tourney at LCA. We'll get that if we go 14-4 in the conference.  It'll be tough, and I'd say we're more likely to go 13-5, but certainly can get to 14-4.

Bambi

January 13th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^

Too far out to predict accurately. I do think we need to win out at home, the only tough game is OSU and we need revenge there.

All road games except Purdue we're the better team, but road games in conference invite randomness. @PSU and @MD seem to be the toughest. PSU us pretty decent, and MD still has talent just no depth. @Nebraska could be tricky too, they're decent this year.

Bambi

January 13th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^

MD is down 2 starters but they still are talented. Cowan is a good PG and Fernando is playing himself into a One and Done lottery guy.

I think we're better than PSU and Nebraska, but road games are road games. Road games against decent teams can always be loses.

TrueBlue2003

January 14th, 2018 at 1:33 AM ^

we'll probably lose three more road games:

almost certainly Purdue

and then two of Wisc, Neb, PSU, NW, MD.

Road games are hard.  We'll have a couple off nights. Even the national runner up team lost @PSU (who were bad).

Gotta win that home game against OSU and if we do, I think we run the table at home.

corundum

January 13th, 2018 at 7:19 PM ^

Regardless, we were on the 8 line going into today and now 6 seems like the likely worst case scenario. Winning the conference tourney could vault Michigan to the 3/4 line even with two more conference losses in the regular season.

Dunder

January 13th, 2018 at 7:25 PM ^

cost them 1 or 2 more games than you project, but if the growth pattern continues they could earn consideration for a 4/5 line and look to be a tough out in the tournament. 

ST3

January 13th, 2018 at 7:43 PM ^

When they started fouling Z my initial reaction was "alright!" Then they showed his numbers on the season and I thought, "oh, no." His form is too good for him to shoot that bad. Beilein will get him in the gym, instill some confidence and he will be up around 75% in March.

TrueBlue2003

January 14th, 2018 at 1:37 AM ^

we're still cramming games in.  Today was the start of 4 games in 8 days (Sat, Mon, Thurs, Sat).

I can't remember us ever playing two weekday games in between two weekend games.

Kind of worried about @Nebraska on Thursday after this tough three game stretch we're in the middle of.

bronxblue

January 13th, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^

They'll probably lose at least 2 more games, though I could see them beat Purdue but then lose at NW or something like that.

Still, this feels like, at best, a 7 seed because they just won't have a large number of signature wins. Maybe they get to the 6 with a nice run in the BATH. But they will absolutely ruin a couple of brackets by blitzing some higher seeded teams.

LSAClassOf2000

January 13th, 2018 at 7:43 PM ^

The Fox broadcast showed Schwab's current projection of Michigan as an 8-seed in the Tournament, which if they manage the 23-8 or so record now predicted on some analytics sites is something I would say feels about right. I would go with 7-9 because of what will be a lack of impressive wins save for this and maybe if we do beat Purdue away. Still, I think we'd be a very dangerous 7-9 seed if we keep playing like this. 

StephenRKass

January 13th, 2018 at 8:20 PM ^

I really want a better seed than 8 or 9. That puts you against a one seed the first weekend. I think probably there are 4 or so teams (1 seeds) Michigan will be hard pressed to beat. The later we face them, the better. On the other hand, it would be very cool to be a 9 seed and take out a 1 seed. I am not a stat nerd, but I'm sure that hasn't happened very often.

blueball97

January 13th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^

I would worry about Maryland. That is a huge game for UM, following this huge win with a let down loss at home v Maryland would erase any good this win has done. Beat the Terps.

umchicago

January 13th, 2018 at 9:15 PM ^

game by game outcomes against teams is stupid. it's not football. not even close. sparty was supposed to run the table in the BIG.  look at their schedule right?  i said they would likely lose 3 games.  not because i'm a genius, but because it's hard to win on the road in the BIG, against anyone, even rutgers.

it's easier to pull an upset in basketball.  one hot shooter can do it.  we saw it today with wagner. hell, golden state has lost 9 games and i'm guessing they have been favored in just about every one of them.

if UM can go 12-6, i will be ecstatic. i was hoping for at least 10-8 at the beginning of the year.

burtcomma

January 13th, 2018 at 10:42 PM ^

That one looks like an L to me Steve, tough place to win. Do love what I perceive as the mental toughness of this team as it continues to grow by leaps and bounds. Interested to hear what people think is behind this toughness.....