Vegas says Michigan -3 over Houston, but...

Submitted by FauxMo on March 16th, 2018 at 11:22 AM

Kenpom says Michigan +2, at least according to the simulator I use. I watched Houston last night, and that Gray kid is legit. I know nothing about SDSU, but unless their defense is really bad, someone is going to need a great job on D on him for us to win this game. I think we pull it out late in a close one, something like 72-69...

EDIT: Someone correctly pointed out below that we are actually 2 point faves on KenPom. I was looking at his simulator as an away game, not a neutral site game. My bad, homies. Regardless, it's gonna be close either way... 

Comments

animalfarm84

March 16th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^

As a Cincy fan, we played Houston 3 times this year.  I'm too lazy to look up the actual stats, but he struggled against a strong defense.  I haven't watched Michigan as much this year as I have UC, but my sense is that Michigan's D is just as well suited to stopping Gray as UC's is--perhaps even moreso since UC doesn't have a hyperactive Zavier Simpson-style guard to pressure the ball quite as aggressively.

animalfarm84

March 16th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^

Gray's stats against Cincy this year:

Game 1: 9 pts on 4-15 shooting, 1-6 from 3, 6 assists and 6 boards.

Game 2: 13 pts on 3-13 shooting, 1-7 from 3, 4 assists and 1 board (with 4 turnovers)

Game 3: 17 points on 6-22 shooting, 2-9 from 3, 3 assists and 5 boards (with 4 turnovers)

 

 

 

J.

March 16th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^

The statistics from last night's game are insane.  He had a 50% usage rate with zero assists.  Literally, half of Houston's possessions ended with him doing something -- shooting (from the field or the line) or turning the ball over.  That's how you score 39 points and win a game 67-65.

If Michigan can shut him down, they'll win handily.  It not, it's going to go down to the wire.

umchicago

March 16th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^

still don't know why they didn't trap manbun with 8 sec to go and make him pass the ball.  they would have struggled to get a decent shot off had they done that.  

kejamder

March 16th, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^

Vegas lines adjust to match (or are set to anticipate) the public's betting, so I think it makes a lot of sense that Michgan bettors are more favorable than KenPom.

After watching Montana's guards drive for way too many layups yesterday, I'm leaning more toward KenPom than Vegas at this point. Especially if we have the same refs calling it tight and putting Z out of the game.

Bb011

March 16th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^

My question is who do we put on Gray? I'm not all that worried about it since the question stems more of the fact that I think we have a few guys that would do a great job.  I assume we start with Zavier on him due to his quickness and great defense, but I also think having MAAR or even Matthews on him a bit due to their length and great contests could be beneficial and could throw him off his game a bit. I think Zavier will get most of the minutes on him though. Gray is pretty turnover prone, so I like a guy like Zavier there to force those turnovers. 

Champeen

March 16th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^

Simmons had a very nice and timely offensive game for us last night.  But holy shit, he plays gawd-awful defense.  I totally see why he was behind Simpson the entire year now.  he could not come close to staying in front of their guards.

Tom Snow

March 16th, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^

Is really bad at defense, was 25% from 3, made 21 of 35 free throws, had 12 turnovers...and nearly won this game. That last possession alone where Gray splits 3 defenders was some of the worst defense I've ever seen. More contact at a middle school dance. 

Michigan by 10.

Champeen

March 16th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^

I think most on here (and maybe Vegas) are overrating Houston based on manbuns performance.

Houston basically should have lost to a 12 seed last night.  And we are barely favored?  Its not like they played Duke or Villinova.

And we just played one of the top 3 worst games of our season, and won by double digits covering the spread.

Michigan wins this by double digits.  Quit worrying.  

Zarniwoop

March 16th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^

My concern is that we just played like we had never held a basketball before last night.

Once again, Delaney fucks the big ten. This time with a week plus layoff.

I'd say if we DO win convincingly tonight, maybe we can get it rolling. But, all the momentum we had pre-tournament is gone. I expect it to be the same for ALL big ten teams.

Basketball is a game of momentum. Lets hope that we have a good game tonight (and win) to build some or Carolina is going to be one ugly game.