I think Shea looks like Post Malone

Edit: I'm aware of /s, but mine kinda isn't

Promotion from within? Head coach Mike Debord? Mallett and Boren stick around, but the rest of the team is... pretty much what we had in 2008, except instead of zone stretches for nothing you have power and counter runs for nothing. 

Basically, we're talking about being Tennessee instead of whatever it was we became. 

I think the program erosion had already plunged into critical mass territory, and one win (followed by a bad loss to Florida) wouldn't have changed it much. Still would have liked to win, mind you, but the problems were already festering.

The 1986 Minnesota games waves hello here too.

“...if not better, situation going into the IU game in 2016.”

False.

Speight had just suffered an injury in the road loss to Iowa and we were relegated to starting O’Korn in the IU game. Speight never returned to form after said injury.  Even so, 2018 Patterson > 2016 healthy Speight.

Not to mention, losing to now #3 ND in week 1 >>> losing to unranked 5-4 Iowa in week 10.

I think it's a number of things.

1) 2016 was only Harbaugh's second season at M and he was kind of playing with house money.  It would have been great if he'd have won the Big Ten that year, but he didn't have all "his guys" in place and wasn't really expected to do so.  Now Harbaugh is in his fourth year and has about as complete a team as most programs ever have.  

2) M lost the Iowa game late in the 2016 season, and Speight was hurt--nobody really knew if he'd even be available for OSU right up to the day of the game.  He did wind up playing, but was clearly limited.  This year M has gotten through its pre-OSU gauntlet without a conference loss and has a very healthy team overall.  So the late-season expectations are much higher.

3) Probably the biggest difference, IMO, is the off-field turmoil in Columbus.  A Michigan victory in 2016 would have been nice, and probably given M a bit of a boost in perception and recruiting appeal, etc.  But OSU would have been back strong the next year.  A Michigan victory this time around, with the Zach Smith scandals and all these questions swirling about whether Meyer will be back next year, could really knock them down a peg.  Their fanbase cannot handle adversity and a high-stakes loss to Michigan in the midst of all this other stuff would really stir the pot.

I think we feel that it is a better team this year.  I don't know that most were overly confident about the OSU game that year, but this year barring any (admittedly not too improbable) flukes, we should get the win in Columbus.

This is bigger than 2016. 2016 was huge, but this (assuming victory over Indiana) is bigger.

It's not because the ceiling is higher--a playoff berth (possibly resulting in a loss) is the same for each. But the floor is lower now. In 2016 Harbaugh was new and fresh. The 2017 offensive disaster hadn't happened. Nobody was saying "Harbaugh can't win the big one" or sniffing at his record in road games. Coaches couldn't honestly argue that recruits under Harbaugh would underachieve.

Now all that negative stuff is on the table. It's quiet right now, but you can count on the fact that a loss in Columbus will bring all that stuff back up to the top again. In the national media, on this board, in the living rooms of recruits, everywhere.

If Michigan wants to be an elite team, it has to recruit like an elite team. People who say stars are everything and people who say they don't matter are both wrong. Stars aren't everything, but they DO matter. You need talented athletes to compete with the Clemsons and the Alabamas of the nation. 

OSU is rough right now but they do have those players and will continue to get them. And as long as they recruit like that, Michigan has to at least keep in the same ballpark, or we're looking at winning 1 out of every 4 years for the forseeable future (forget the fact that we've only won once since 2003, the future could be equally bleak). 

Michigan wins in Columbus and makes the playoff, we're an elite program. We close strong on the current class and restock the shelves for the coming years. Harbaugh has big wins under his belt, and the feeling in Ann Arbor is good.

Lose? Then James Franklin can legitimately go to a guy like Zach Harrison and tell him "at least I can beat Ohio State." Prospects in the South stop taking Harbaugh's phone calls. We have to revert to a "find the diamonds in the rough" strategy with few top prospects giving us a look. You know, Michigan State's strategy. Developing players and getting a couple of good athletes and hoping to beat the big boys on rare occasions. 9-3 as a typical year. Being a "little brother" to a clearly superior rival.

Lose a couple of times to finish the year and Michigan's ceiling is what Michigan State is now. 

This is the most important game of this century and it's not close.