Michigan a very good bet this year

Submitted by Dailysportseditor on March 6th, 2018 at 3:18 PM

Michigan basketball has been a good bet this year, literally.  VegasInsider and OddsShark websites list Michigan with 22 wins ATS this season, tied for most in the country with Nebraska.

 

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/against-the-spread/

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/ats-standings

Comments

Mitch Cumstein

March 7th, 2018 at 6:23 AM ^

While I agree with your general point, Part of the reason the path ended at +1500 was bc State and Purdue won their games. M was a dog in those two games, and I think those were the only two teams where that would have been the case.

MCalibur

March 7th, 2018 at 2:53 PM ^

No argument there but Michigan's posted futures odds at the beginning of the tournament certainly had those outcomes baked in. Anyone outside MSU and Purdue would be expected to have to defeat them both for the futures bet to pay out. The only way Michigan +700 to win the BTT presents value is if both MSU and Purdue *both* suffer stunning upsets. Not a favorable gambling thesis there. In fact, Michgan's 4 games were all chalk matchups...+1500-ish was truly the actual fair value futures line for Michigan to win the 2018 BTT.
 
The excersize also holds for MSU (the BTT favorite). They were +250 at the start of the tournament implying a 40% chance of winning their 3 games. We know that wer favored by 12 pts vs Wisconsin and 5 pts vs Michigan, so the implied line (from +250 futurues bet) vs their presumed opponent in the final (Purdue) was MSU by 3.  MSU was favored over Purdue by 3 at Breslin earlier in the year, expecting them to be favored by the same amount at a Neutral site requires...creative thinking. So taking MSU @ 250 to win the tournament required the expectation that the gap between the two teams had grown by a lot since their previous meeting OR that Purdue would not make it to the final.
 
Maybe Purdue's +275 to win presented value after Rutgers won two games but, again, betting on that to happen a priori would have been a sucker's bet.
 
TLDR: after you really tease it all out, ML roller is definitely the sharpest way to play tournament futures. AND you preserve the right to halt the roll if something you dont like (an injury for example) happens.

ThatTCGuy

March 6th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^

This is pretty nuts. Nebraska got so many wins ATS because everyone thought they'd be one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and they exceeded expectations. We were expected to be really good and we STILL exceeded expectations!

Um1994

March 6th, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^

I think Michigan was expected to be average and exceeded expectations, particularly to close the season.  I pulled up about 5 preseason B10 previews and Michigan was picked to finish anywhere from 5th to 8th in the conference.  Michigan finished tied for 4th, but lit everything on fire to close the season; the team probably would have finished higher without the compressed schedule.  

high_as_fuck_go_blue

March 6th, 2018 at 3:52 PM ^

Jesus fuck … I can’t keep my hands off my dick when I’m watching these shining young Michigan men sweat it out and duke it out on the court putting everything they got into bringing glory to  the university and more importantly to their sexy selves. Every time I see Z switched onto a big I go faster and when he blows by I almost blow my load and when he goes to the bench but out come Jaaron man had so high expecatations russell westbrook usage level ass expectations. But he hasn't really got there maybe cuz young Eli Brooks "Zero" from Holes looking ass somehow took his job at the beginning of the season god damn MAAR those sexy ass pink shoes and old man ass clever ass offense when I see him explode into that jump stop I'm gonna bust but not yet cuz Jordan Poole comes out with those sexy ass short shorts show em those thighs and ass goofy hair baby face gen z ass mf. Then Charles Matthews gets fouled and i go so fucking flaccid cuz his free thorws suck so much cock but not mine because im flaccid by now especially when he that across the lane jump stop floater cuz that's just a bad shot but when he makes his 3s and play ahtletic d I then wanna nut cuz he has that kentucky athleticism totally overshadowing Ibi Watson who sucks anyway and is basically just poor mand Livers with that 3andD stretch 4 role better defense than white d3 ass duncan robinson 24 year old mf so old god damn but when that 3 is falling i stroke it like he strokes his catch and shoots that get rebounded by big Moe Wagner who has so much swag and pump up the crowd reactions I get so fucking excited i gotta switch hands cuz i got so tired god damn fucking jon teske feeling it so much last game he was taking fucking 15 footers no sir but nasty dunk on haas you were so fucking red pasty ass white boy but better looking that austin davis sorry man, teske's got that underrated looks god damn finally coach beilein and LUKE Yaklich are the ffukcing best now this team lockin everyone up god thats what makes me the hardest fuck i explode when fucking teske and moe swat shit out fuck this team is so good and i fucking love them god damnnnn im gonna bust FUCK

MW147

March 6th, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^

Hmmmm, I am headed for Vegas on Friday. Once the brackets come out I may have to place a bet on us to win the whole thing and one on us for the opening game. 

 

BBQJeff

March 6th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^

I don't like this long layoff before the NCAA.  Michigan is a hot team right now.  I fear more can go wrong than go right with 12-13 days off.  

Andy213

March 6th, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^

Your you love penis  post is way to long to read. If you want to troll or just be an asshole get better at it. You probably never been high, live with your parents and just figured out how to masterbate.  Go back to school.

tlo2485

March 6th, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^

TV Alert: BTN is showing the Michigan-Purdue Championship (in 60 minutes) at 6pm eastern if anyone is interested or wants to record.

Rhino77

March 6th, 2018 at 4:38 PM ^

So I ask my buddy a few months ago to put a token $20 bet on Michigan Football to with the NC next season. He goofs and puts $20 on Michigan bball...75-1 odds at the time.

So I got that going for me.

BoFan

March 6th, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^

I put a $20 preseason bet on Michigan the year they lost to Louisville! It was a fun season!

Now Louisville didn’t win the championship. Too bad I can’t go to Caesar’s and get paid out retroactively. Actually, Vegas is most likely the reason the NCAA won’t claim Michigan as champions.