Michigan - MSU: Performance under Dantonio against the spread

Submitted by Indonacious on October 16th, 2018 at 2:52 PM

Pretty impressive record against Michigan relative to the spread since Dantonio came along across multiple Michigan coaching regimes. This year we are 7 point favorites. If we win this week, it will be one of Dantonio's worst performances ATS in his tenure (only has 4 games when he didn't beat it by 10 or more).

https://twitter.com/colintj/status/1052260018458906624

Also, same poster on twitter has a post showing that it's not really that vegas is bad at setting the spreads for michigan.

Comments

FauxMo

October 16th, 2018 at 2:59 PM ^

Why would you post this? Next thing you're going to tell me is that a former America-hating Iranian president is rooting for us Saturday??? 

geewhiz99

October 16th, 2018 at 3:05 PM ^

I believe MSU did not cover against Utah State, ASU and CMU so this just indicates that Michigan will always be the CFP for Dantanio. It might have taken this long but the Michigan will be very prepared for this Saturday!

maize-blue

October 16th, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^

Harbaugh will be putting a better team on the field than MSU. It will be tough but I'd consider it a failure by JH not to come out on top in this one. I don't see any stats, metrics, polls, rankings, etc. that lead me to believe that MSU should win this. What tenative UM fans are indirectly saying is that they think Dantonio is a better coach than Harbaugh.

jblaze

October 16th, 2018 at 3:08 PM ^

The Vegas spread is a mechanism for the casinos to have as close to even money on both sides as possible. They make money on the vig, not by teams winning.

Given that context, this makes sense. Michigan has more alumni and fans (and money) than MSU and Hoke (early years) and Harbaugh have brought a false sense of confidence from us (maybe RR in years 2 & 3, or just Denard?)?

Dr. Strangelove

October 16th, 2018 at 6:26 PM ^

This.

Michigan is a public team just like the Steelers and Cowboys in the NFL. They attract the casual bettor because of their name. That's why the spreads are often skewed and higher than they would be in a lower profile matchup. 

Vegas will be heavy on the wolverines and rooting for the Spartans.

The line this weekend will probably close around 8 after opening (for the whales) at 5.

In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the big bettors that got mich -5 didn't turn around and take Spartans +8 for the middle.

 

SpamCityCentral

October 16th, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^

The events of last Saturday make me wary of this game. Although we looked great against Wisconsin i don't think they as a good as they normally are. MSU goes to happy valley where no one thought they had a chance and pull off a win. They creep into the top 25 and we skyrocket to 6. 

rice4114

October 17th, 2018 at 2:27 AM ^

2017 is last year right? Just checking because you put 2017 on there and that was last year i think. The year that the foward pass eluded us and blocking any team that made a bowl. 

Ill give MSU last year. Lets earn our victories going forward. Time to match their intensity. Emotion can be the only thing that can explain an underdog winning 80% of the time and covering 100% of the time. 

1VaBlue1

October 16th, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^

Marc's wins against Michigan came during what is probably the worst 10-year stretch in Michigan football history.  There may be some other stretch that is worse, but you'll have to go back a LONG way to find it.  It also coincides with PSU's demise as a top performer because the world learned the truth about Joe Paterno, and was disgusted by it. 

The simple fact that Mick has won some games should not surprise.  He's a solid coach that seems to get an extraordinary amount of luck, while playing with some loose ethical boundaries.  Luck runs out, and then talent takes over.

Mongo

October 16th, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^

Only common opponent is Northwestern.  MSU is very one-dimensional, basically the whole offense revolves around Lewerke to Felton Davis.  Key to the game is to contain Lewerke on the scramble and cover Davis like a glove - NU held MSU to 24% on 3rd down conversions - we should be able to do even better and maybe force some turnovers / bad punts for great field position.

Would love to see an f-ing goose egg next to MSU's name on the scoreboard at the end of this game - this is the year it could happen, but more likely they get one gimme in garbage time. 

UM 24  MSU 7

charblue.

October 16th, 2018 at 5:12 PM ^

I don't see any way that MSU beats Michigan, mostly because in order for that to happen, Sparty needs to play a Northwestern type game and keep Michigan from scoring no more than 20 points, because it just doesn't have the offensive firepower to stay in a freestyle scoring game. So, they will be relying on their defense, specifically their run defense, and hope it can produce turnovers, potential TD's with big plays and convert short field opportunities.

MSU is weakened by widespread injuries on the Oline, missing two original season starters, and having played makeshift lineups for six straight games. Beyond that they are also hurting at both running back and receiver with depth and experience a huge issue, especially picking up exotic blitzing schemes and rush games that Michigan will employ in order to confuse their blocking and pickup responsibilities.

What I fully expect Sparty to do is run a lot of end arounds, jet sweep action and edge plays in addition to rolling out Lewerke as much as possible to avoid the rush and throw downfield.

Michigan's ability to score quickly early and then possess the ball and run clock is the same recipe they used with their hybrid offensive attack against Wisconsin.

This is a different game than the Wisconsin matchup, in that Michigan has no reason to let up or not score at will on this team if given the opportunity, both for seasonal and rivalry purposes.

This game scenario plays into a typical Dantonio chip-on-the-shoulder opportunity. But that is all it is an opportunity to play the card. Because Michigan just needs to perform an execution with extreme prejudice, by scoring early and often and breaking the will of this team.

Wolverine91

October 16th, 2018 at 5:25 PM ^

This is going to be a close game. MSU is physically and mentally a tough team. They will not wilt if they go down early, especially to us. Anyone who says otherwise is just blowin smoke.

Ibow

October 16th, 2018 at 9:36 PM ^

Gosh it’s only Tuesday but I’m so sick of all the hype and the “what’s ifs” and the “how abouts”. Just frickin beat MSU. I can’t stand Dantonio & I can’t stand that couch burning, child molesting bunch of worthless punks.