MGoDC

February 23rd, 2011 at 9:06 PM ^

You're an obvious troll so I feel bad replying, but missing 6 straight FT for a 68% shooting team has a .32^6 x 100% chance of happening.

This ends up coming out to a .1074% chance. So yeah, I would call a 1 out of 1000 probability event surprising.

MfaninOH

February 23rd, 2011 at 9:54 PM ^

You're entitled to that opinion, but the odds that a team with "signature" wins against Harvard (Harvard) and Clemson is one that I would expect to miss free throws.  By the way, they shot 5-11 from the line, which, math major, is 45.5%.  Not much of a stretch to think a 68% free throw shooting team could go 5-11.

OOOPS!  There I go again, stating facts and making sense.  I'm a PRICK!  I deserve to be stabbed repeatedly with a butter knife.

By the way, I am not a troll, which is...any of a race of supernatural beings, sometimes conceived as giants and sometimes as dwarfs, inhabiting caves or subterranean dwellings.

Slang . a person who lives or sleeps in a park or under a viaduct or bridge, as a bag lady or derelict.
 
I am an a-hole, prick, c***sucker, loser, waste of life, failure, etc.  But definitely NOT a troll.

MGoDC

February 23rd, 2011 at 10:09 PM ^

First of all, I was not a math major at UM.

Secondly, you are arguing a different sentiment from the rest of the board. We were debating the odds of missing the last 6 free throws in a row, not 5-11 overall. Making the first 5 has no effect on the last 6, much the same way as flipping a coin that lands heads has no effect on the outcome of the next coinflip.

MfaninOH

February 23rd, 2011 at 10:32 PM ^

actually, since there is a human element and the players are not machines, nerves play a part, so the past DOES play a part in the free throws they missed.

Psychology is a very big part of free throw shooting, especially because it is so static, unlike shooting on the move.  If a player does not allow his/her larger muscles to control the shot (legs), the smaller muscles, which are not as stable, have more of a chance to be impacted by nerves.

Confidence and lack of confidence play a part.  So does the situation.  They were not tight earlier when the free throws weren't as magnified.  Late in the game, they may have been tight.

And, as they missed more, they got tighter (maybe).  Therefore, a team that is not very good from the line, gets in a pressure-filled situation, misses a couple, is MUCH more likely to miss more.

Your turn.  By the way, the flipping of the coin thing was excellent and threw me for a minute.  Well done.

dsherma

February 23rd, 2011 at 11:00 PM ^

You two are arguing about nothing.

 

We may have missed our last 6 free throws, but only 1 (!) of these misses took place in the last 15 minutes of the game and 3 of them were in the first half.

MGoDC

February 23rd, 2011 at 11:01 PM ^

It's hard to argue intangibles like confidence in a probability debate, therefore if we get into this realm of discussion there won't be much to say in terms of persuading one side or the other. Obviously you are right that situation matters, and lack of confidence could play a part. However, one counter "intangible" is that, having made the first 5, wouldn't you expect the players to be having an "on" night if we are going to use those types of words/justifications to explain sports outcome? It's probably even less likely that they would miss their last 6 after making their first 5 due to the confidence building aspect and just generally "being in the zone."

Just as a clarification, I am well aware this contradicts my earlier point about the coin flips, however if we are bringing intangibles/being in the zone/being tight/lack of confidence to the table then the coin flip argument doesnt hold water since coins obvious lack any of those 4 attributes assuming the person flipping the coin does not lack confidence in his flipping abilities.

jmblue

February 23rd, 2011 at 9:39 PM ^

To clarify for those fortunate enough to have missed the end: we missed six straight FTs over the course of the game, not in the last five minutes or anything.  But we bricked the front end of a one-and-one with 30 seconds left and a two-point lead.  That sucked.

bluebyyou

February 23rd, 2011 at 8:30 PM ^

It's not luck, it's missing six free throws in a row and how many other shots and bad decisions down the stretch.  Losing this game fucking killed me - a dagger in the heart, but we really have no one to blame but ourselves.

jmblue

February 23rd, 2011 at 11:13 PM ^

Just can't resist taking shots at the team, can you?

Wisconsin won because a freshman shooting 27% from downtown on the season unexpectedly found the ball in his hands and banked in a three.  Don't tell me Bo Ryan planned that.