Impact of rain on Michigan State game?

Submitted by Caesar on October 18th, 2018 at 4:43 AM

Google is telling me that there's a 30-60% chance of rain just before kickoff and during the game. How do you think this will impact the game? 

State's apparent strength on defense is the DL against the run. The counterpoint is that State hasn't faced a really good rushing team. On offense, however, State dinked/dunked their way to a win against Penn State while their run game continued to suffer; passing seemed to be a big part of their success in that game. Overall, I'd say it's a wash, but I really think it depends on Michigan's interior DL health, especially after a bruising opponent like Wisconsin.

 

 

Comments

JHumich

October 18th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^

Rain: little to none or maybe some, but meteorology is basically a crap shoot

Impact: negligible. We're better in all phases, and I don't think it really matters if we run for 400 and pass for 150 on them or pass for 300 and run for 300 on them, or whether they run 50 and pass 120 or run 120 and pass 50.

Post value: Saturday can't come quickly enough

Durham Blue

October 18th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^

Celsius...how Canadian of you.  For those interested 9C = 48.2F.  Chilly.

I would be more worried if the rain was 90-100% because that usually means it'll be heavy.  Forecast is saying partly cloudy early and "light rain" later on.  Doesn't seem like rain will cause a problem.  The forecast 15 to 25 mph winds may be an issue though.

Don

October 18th, 2018 at 5:45 AM ^

All other things being equal, I don't like an artificial turf team playing on a wet grass field against a team accustomed to playing on grass.

It may not make much of a difference when playing a physically overmatched team, but that's not the case when playing MSU.

Don

October 18th, 2018 at 7:35 AM ^

According to ESPN, Sanders had 162 total yards on 17 carries, which included runs of 78 and 48 yards.

Aside from the long runs, he amassed 36 yards on the remaining 15 carries, for a 2.4 yd average. I'm not saying that his long runs should be dismissed, but the large majority of his carries were of significantly shorter yardage than 9.5 yds.

If Higdon runs for 162 on 17 carries, I'd rather it consist of 17 runs of 9.5 each because that translates into lots of first downs, which means keeping MSU's offense off the field—as long as we're converting those first downs into TD drives, of course. That also means less reliance on our ST. We only had to punt twice against WI, whereas PSU had to punt 8 times against MSU, which means many of their possessions didn't do anything.

Indonacious

October 18th, 2018 at 8:35 AM ^

I’m not sure erasing those carries entirely is fair, but if you substitute them for 20 yard runs you get 17 carries for 86 yards, which is 5 yards per carry. I think their running game is better than ours but still I would be surprised if we weren’t able to do around 3.5 YPC.

bluepalooza

October 18th, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^

If Higdon runs 162 yards on 2 carries, Michigan wins comfortably.  I watched the PSU/MSU game. PSU is not a very good defense and average at best Oline. I am confident Michigan (all players) will rush for around 200 yds. If Michigan hits 200 yds total, Michigan wins. Period.

JonnyHintz

October 18th, 2018 at 9:07 AM ^

36 yards on 15 carries aside from two big runs. I get it, you can’t totally subtract big runs from the total. But you also can’t sit here and pretend like PSU had any real success on the ground. Miles Sanders was routinely stuffed at the line of scrimmage, and roughly 12% of his carries he busted a long one. 

 

Thats not how you structure an offense and that’s not a recipe for success. I’d much rather average 4-5 yards on every single carry than average 2 and bust a long run or two. 

Bill22

October 18th, 2018 at 7:26 AM ^

I don’t think Devin Bush is too concerned about some weather.  He’s going to bring the pain rain or shine.  That being said, what up with the Celsius?  You Canadian or something?

LSAClassOf2000

October 18th, 2018 at 7:38 AM ^

From the NWS forecast for East Lansing on Saturday, as they currently summarize it:

"A chance of rain showers before 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. West northwest wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%."

If you go to their site, you can get a decent hourly breakdown of their estimate as well. 

Expect this to read totally different tomorrow.

4th and Go For It

October 18th, 2018 at 7:42 AM ^

It won't. This isn't the last decade of being on their level or lagging behind. We have better coaches and talent again at every position group. This team looks to be a complete unit for the first time since...when? When was the last year we had a serviceable, disciplined O-Line at the same time as a quality QB at the same time as talented skill position players to go with a lock down defense? Screw the weather. We're taking it to State this year. Enough of the "but it's the superbowl for them" and "but the weather" and all of that. We're not running out a turnstile o-line. We're not running a 3 star backup QB out there. They'll punch. We'll punch harder. Game over. This team may lose again this year, but not THIS week. Not to a Sparty team with a weak O-line, no run game, and the "Yes Fly Zone" defensive backfield. Not THIS team. Not THIS year.  Bring the monsoon, the trash tornado, the burning couches. It won't matter. Revenge Tour, Sparty Edition. BRING THE PAIN.