Bill Connelly's ND preview

Submitted by Eye of the Tiger on May 17th, 2018 at 6:27 PM

Figured it would be good to read some opposition research.

Connelly thinks they could have their best defense since the Manti T'eo days and favors them in every game this season (including against us). Predicts a 10-2 record, and gives them a 62% chance of beating us. 

Curious if anyone who follows them more closely than I do would care to comment? Based on what I know, this seems a little too bullish on the Irish. But then again, I don't follow them all that closely. But their defense sure didn't look great in the spring game. 





May 18th, 2018 at 12:13 PM ^

Not sure I would say we will shred them.  I expect us to win as their offense will not scare many teams especially our defense. They will be lucky to put up 10 points in this game.  If Shea plays well and our OL improves from last year, we will do enough to win this game and it will actually be comfortable.

I would say something along the lines of 24-10.


May 17th, 2018 at 6:38 PM ^

Their defense won't look so good when they suck up on the Higdon PA because he's been shredding them all day and then Shea hits DPJ on a bomb to put us up 3 scores!!


May 17th, 2018 at 6:40 PM ^

This is why people predicting a blowout of ND confuse me. They will have a top defense at home against an offense that still has plenty of questions to answer. Remember Rudock at Utah? 


May 18th, 2018 at 12:39 AM ^

And the fact that Rudock ended up having one of the better statistical seasons in Michigan history is a minor miracle for which Harbaugh (along with Fisch) should get more credit.  He had Wilton Speight looking good enough at times that people thought he was a poor man's Roethlisberger. Last year should just be forgotten. But with legit talent at QB that actually has had time to learn the offense and even marginally improved line and WR play, we should expect a Rudock year to be the floor.  


May 17th, 2018 at 10:11 PM ^

I think we will beat Nd and go 10-2. I just think it’ll be like 17-14 and a close defensive game. I don’t believe half a year of practice will be enough for a guy to come out looking elite in the first game. I don’t think our offensive line will be good. I just think our defense is good enough those things won’t cause us to lose.

Yost Ghost

May 18th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^

Apparently you didn't read Brian's UV yesterday.…

Patterson's worst case scenario is a thousand times better than what Michigan got from the spot a year ago. It'll all go to hell if Michigan can't pass protect better, but Patterson really does solve a swath of Michigan's issues just by being a proven P5 quarteback.


May 17th, 2018 at 10:13 PM ^

Patterson spent spring practice running with 2nd unit because he still didn’t know the playbook. It’s a better situation, you are still asking for 6 months of practice to be good enough to simulate game time. I think it’ll take like 4 actual games for them to get it together on offense


May 17th, 2018 at 6:46 PM ^

  • National early getting line has Michigan at Notre Dame (-2). That being less than home field advantage says Michigan is the better team.

Nothing for Connelly to brag about.


May 17th, 2018 at 7:00 PM ^

ND, Florida, Stanford, Miami, LSU, Mich State, TCU, USC, Boise State OVERHYPED EVERY YEAR

Large alumni base that hasn't won National Championship in a long time?


Lucky for us, there are many MIchigan haters so it tends to even out.




May 17th, 2018 at 7:38 PM ^

I don't think it is weird at all.  For the sake of argument...let's pretend Notre Dame has a 67% chance to win in each individual game...that is being favored in every single game...but you wouldn't expect them to go undefeated.

If I said you had to roll the dice...and if you roll a 3 or higher ND wins...well that is a ~67% chance of winning each game...but 12-0 is highly unlikely.  8-4 would be about expectation.

Yale Van Dyne Fan

May 17th, 2018 at 7:34 PM ^


If a team only plays 2 games and has a 51% chance of winning each, its projected record would be .51 + .51 = 1.02 which would round to 1 win and thus 1 loss. If you add up the probabilities in each of ND's 12 games, it probably adds up to something like 9.8 wins and hence 10-2. Having a 51% chance to win a game is not the same degree of "favored" as having a 99% chance to win.


May 17th, 2018 at 9:11 PM ^

The “math” answer is actually inaccurate. You are falling into the same fallacy that has people believing a 50% free thrower who makes the first free throw will “likely” miss the second. He still has the same 50% chance of making the second.