This is is the week 12 college football team rankings produced by a semi-objective model as described previously HERE. The model was inspired by Seth's post that proposed a point system to determine bowl eligibility. These rankings aim to be a relatively objective starting point from which to apply considerations such as the eye test, margin of victory, and head-to-head results. The goal is to rank the quality of the resumes of teams from an accomplishment standpoint.
- +3 points for a conference championship.
- +4 points for a win over a top 10 team.
- +3 points for a win over a top 25 team (not in top 10).
- +2 points for a win over a winning P5 team (not in the top 25).
- +1 point for a win over a winning G5 or a losing P5 team.
- +0 points for a win over a losing G5 or any FCS team.
- -1 point for a loss to a top 10 team.
- -2 points for a loss to a top 25 team (not in top 10).
- -3 points for a loss to a winning P5 team (not in top 25).
- -4 points for a loss to a losing P5 or any G5/FCS team.
Top 10 and top 25 status are determined by this ranking system and the model is solved iteratively until it converges. In scenarios where oscillatory states lead to a failure in convergence, the average points for oscillatory states are used. No voter polls are used in any capacity. Ties are broken by head-to-head results when applicable and RPI otherwise.
This week there were two oscillatory states, hence the 0.5 point increments.
Last week's accuracy compared to the committee's rankings:
Top 4: 75% with the one miss (5: Michigan) being 1 spot out.
Top 10: 90% with the one miss (11: Ohio State) being 1 spot out.
Top 25: 88% with the three misses (36: Iowa, 27: Iowa State, 34: Fresno State).
Someone last week also suggested counting any team with the same number of points as the 10th team as top 10 (and same for top 25). I did this and compare the results below.
While the modified method improved convergence (it converged in 9 iterations), it is of course a much worse method because it moved Michigan down a spot and that is unforgivable. FYI, the modified method counts Auburn, South Carolina, and Stanford as top 25 teams.