Especially with 2019 DTs Smith and Hinton in the fold, maybe Michigan has built up some recruiting momentum on the d-line to start thinking about uber-recruit Zach Harrison as at least possible, if still very unlikely. By way of background, here's the 247 profile (link) for the 4th-ranked 2019 prospect. His OV to Michigan was this weekend (June 21).
How 'Bama was 'Bama recruiting when McElwain coached there and how good was his offense with that level of talent? How does that compare to Michigan's talent-level? There's plenty of hand-waiving going on, so I thought I'd look into it.
- Use Wiki to find the 2008-2011 'Bama offense starters.
- Use the 247 Composite to check 'Bama starters' rating and create an average.
- Evaluate the talent level in light of OFEI Rank (link).
- Compare this information to Michigan's probable starters and their 247 rating.
Chart: 'Bama Starters and 247 Ranking + OFEI Rank
|2008 Starters||2008 Composite Rating||2009 Starters||2009 Composite Rating||2010 Starters||2010 Composite Rating||2011 Starters||2011 Composite Rating|
|Mike McCoy, WR||3||Brad Smelley, FB||3||Preston Dial, FB||3||Brad Smelley, FB||3|
|Marquis Maze, WR||3||Marquis Maze, WR||3||Marquis Maze, WR||3||Marquis Maze, WR||3|
|Andre Smith, LT||5||James Carpenter, LT||4||James Carpenter, LT||4||Barrett Jones, LT||4|
|Mike Johnson, LG||4||Mike Johnson, LG||4||Chance Warmack, LG||3||Chance Warmack, LG||3|
|Antoine Caldwell, C||3||William Vlachos, C||4||William Vlachos, C||4||William Vlachos, C||4|
|Marlon Davis, RG||3||Barrett Jones, RG||4||Barrett Jones, RG||4||Anthony Steen, RG||3|
|Drew Davis, RT||2||Drew Davis, RT||2||D.J. Fluker, RT||5||D.J. Fluker, RT||5|
|Nick Walker, TE||4||Colin Peek, TE||3||Michael Williams, TE||4||Michael Williams, TE||4|
|Julio Jones, WR||5||Julio Jones, WR||5||Julio Jones, WR||5||DeAndrew White, WR||4|
|John Parker Wilson, QB||3||Greg McElroy, QB||3||Greg McElroy, QB||3||AJ McCarron, QB||4|
|Glen Coffee, RB||3||Mark Ingram, RB||4||Mark Ingram, RB||4||Trent Richardson, RB||5|
Chart: What of Michigan?
|2017 Predicted Starters||2017 Composite Rating|
|Kekoa Crawford, WR||4|
|Ben Mason, FB||3|
|Nolan Ulizio, LT||3|
|Ben Bredeson, LG||4|
|Cesar Ruiz, C||4|
|Michael Onwenu, RG||4|
|Juwann Bushell-Beatty, RT||4|
|Zach Gentry, TE||4|
|Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR||5|
|Shea Patterson, QB||5|
|Karan Higdon, RB||3|
On its face, it looks like McElwain accomplished some impressive things at 'Bama with less talent than Michigan has presently, at least based on ratings. Year one of McElwain was especially impressive because 'Bama's OFEI ranking was 67th when he came in. Also, especially if Patterson starts, Michigan would have the same number of 5-star starters as 'Bama's teams did during McElwain's tenure (though none at OT). Finally, I think Michigan of present and 'Bama during McElwain have similar quality defenses.
- Only looking at starters
- Not sure if a starter at 'Bama during that stretch is like a Mattison starter--i.e., guys who rotate a great deal
- Only looking at recruiting rankings as a proxy for talent
Maybe McElwain isn't so bad? I know this is looking at data from a long time ago, but he seemed to do a great deal with less talent than he'll have at Michigan. Also, I was very conservative about Michigan's talent pool (no Black listed, for example), so I may even be understating that talent edge.
On the other hand, any improvements in talent really depends on what was a 'starter' at 'Bama. I'm not sure about that. Also, this was years ago, and perhaps arguments can be made about the game passing McElwain by. There's also something to be said of integrating his concepts into Michigan's current system, and whether there will be a transition cost associated with that.
I do not pay for content on 247 Sports and I just noticed that some Crystal Ball picks are being hidden, but those picks can be unlocked by paying for VIP access. Personally, this isn't a big deal and doesn't entice me to start paying to see this newly hidden content. It's more likely that I'll just stop visiting the webpage, but is a bit disappointing. I've always enjoyed the Crystal Ball picks concept.
Over at 247 Sports, coach Tyrone Wheatley is now ranked as the #1 recruiter.
Partridge at #9, Drevno at #51, Brown at #86, Mattison at # 98, Fisch #113.
The ranking system doesn't make any sense to me, but it's obvious that OSU recruiting is inferior to UM's. Luke Fickel and Zach Smith both ranked #421 with ZERO points! Chode juggling slackers...
Hey guys. Hope all is well here, and hope you've enjoyed the radio/podcast stuff. (darts talk). It's been a lot of fun.
I lurk the board relatively frequently still, and noticed some threads being started based on a couple Crystal Ball picks or even one pick in certain instances, so I figured I'd post some pointers for those that do follow it, or want more clarity on it.
First things first: it's not a perfect tool. It's a great one, and almost always gives an accurate glimpse into a recruitment, but like most things involving recruiting, has its flaws (late flips, uninformed analysts making predictions like the Chris Evans one, etc.). For those of us that take it seriously (most users), it's a tangible way to put our names behind where we think someone will go. A couple quick things I'd consider regarding it:
1. Our national guys (Steve Wiltfong, Barton Simmons, etc.) won't usually put an initial pick in unless the information is strong in one direction. Steve's prediction on David Long today is a good example. When we expanded the ability to choose to outside sites, it opened up the door for people to make completely speculative picks based on nothing (the Chris Evans pick/thread is a perfect example). Usually the given team writer's pick + national analysts almost always = probably what's going to happen. There have been a few instances (Damon Webb) where that didn't happen, but for the most part it's solid.
2. We're measured on a couple different thresholds regarding the CB...which are basically the percentage of accurate picks, and the average length (days) our average prediction is worth. So while flipping a pick late to get the pick right does help the accuracy average, it hurts the average prediction length, so we're pushed to get it right as far ahead of the commitment as we can.
Figured this may give people a better idea on how to view the Crystal Ball going forward and heading into Signing Day. Again, hope all is well here.
247 Sports released their top 247 prospects for 2017. I have been saying for a while that I think 2017 is going to be a very good class within the state, and I think there are probably even a couple more Michigan kids who might deserve to be on this list.
So far they have Donovan Peoples-Jones, JaRaymond Hall, Josh Ross, Ambry Thomas, and Jaylen Kelly-Powell, and Corey Malone-Hatcher in their top 183 prospects. Michigan has offered all of those guys except Thomas.
I'm planning on getting a subscription to one of the recruiting web sites leading up to National Signing Day. Last year I had a one month subscription to Rivals that was extended when I called to cancel for an additional 3 months.
Which sites are the best for info on recruits and why? 247 seems newer and I really like their Targets chart. Rivals seemed to have a bit broader coverage, and maybe more national, while Scout seems dominated by Sam Webb.
What makes these sites most valuable to you? Which seems to have the most unique and insightful writers and/or ratings?