that kind of game [Ben Ludeman]

2/21/2019 – Michigan 69, Minnesota 60 – 24-3, 13-3 Big Ten

If you could go back in time six months and give your past self a stupefying Michigan sports update, your #2 option would be "Michigan basketball is 24-3 and it's tough to decide whether Zavier Simpson or Jon Teske is our best player." We will not discuss #1.

The needle swung to Simpson after the Maryland game, when he had 12 points on seven shot equivalents, 8 assists, one turnover, and more or less shut off Anthony Cowan for a half. The pendulum swung back to Teske in this one: 17 points on 11 shot equivalents, two assists, five blocks. Even more stunning: 36 minutes.

Teske sometimes seems to take his foot off the gas a little bit in the post, whether that's marshalling his strength or trying to avoid foul trouble. But every game he does enough to hold whoever he's directly checking to meh numbers (Oturu had 18 points on 18 shot equivalents and a TO) while hedging everyone's ball-screen game into oblivion and coming in for help defense on the regular. There's a point in every game where Teske gets a closeup and my reaction is "my goodness that person is red," but dude just keeps going. Michigan would be dead in the water if he could only play 20 MPG like a lot of guys his size. He is Camp Sanderson's magnum opus.

Anyway:

That's Minnesota for you. It took Minnesota 28 minutes to make a basket outside of the paint. The Gophers had 18 points at halftime. Eight of these were on initial attempts. They were able to claw ten more out off of putbacks, which is a little frustrating since the Gophers haven't been that good at OREBs in league play and Michigan has maintained their DREBs much better than they usually do.

The margins are are pretty thin. Given the number of rebounding opportunities Minnesota had (47!) Michigan would expect to give up 12.5 OREBs; instead they gave up 15. This places it into a category where we're mildly frustrated about bounces.

In part because of the above this was a game in which the Gopher had a huge shot volume edge. They had 7 more OREBs than TOs. Michigan was –4. To hold a team with a shot volume index over one to 0.9 PPP means you are crushing them everywhere except the offensive boards.

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wall up! [Ludeman]

Verticality. Part of the trouble the Gophers had was their tendency to run pell-mell at the rim and try to chunk something up. That style is why they lead the league in free throw rate. In this one it mostly led to very tough attempts after taking contact. This was most notable on two missed dunks where Teske walled up vertically and contested.

Amir Coffey's bounced spectacularly outside the three point line; Teske was called for a foul on a near-identical Jordan Murphy play. (Murphy missed both FTs, ball don't lie.)

With the exception of that foul, though, the officials allowed Michigan to contest.

When verticality is called correctly it's such an excellent rule change, rewarding defenses for being in good position without flopping and placing a priority on open shots for the offense all the way to the rim. The best example in this game was not either Teske contest but Amir Coffey getting downhill only for Simpson to show. Simpson was outside the restricted arc (I think) but instead of trying to flop he went up to contest; Coffey bumped him, missed the ensuing tough shot, and Michigan rebounded. That is infinitely superior to a guy standing on the ground and falling over in the hopes of stopping the game with a foul call.

[After THE JUMP: attacking switches, finally]

[Ben Ludeman]

It was a big night for Minnesota: as a bubble team hosting a squad that has spent most of the season in the top five, they had an opportunity to get a win that might have came close to locking up an NCAA Tournament bid. Michigan’s defense dominated the Gophers in the first half — they barely got to over half a point per possession — and the Wolverines opened up a big lead in the second. Despite some sloppy play down the stretch and standout performances from Minnesota big men Jordan Murphy and Daniel Oturu (who scored 18 points each and recorded double-doubles), it was a comfortable win for the Wolverines.

Michigan’s three-point shooting had been poor in Big Ten play (32%, 9th in the league entering the game), but they shot 13-28 from deep tonight and actually shot a higher percentage on threes (46%) than twos (41%). Jordan Poole missed his first look from behind the arc, but got hot after Gabe Kalscheur doubled off of him and he knocked down a wide open look. Poole made five threes, scored a couple of pretty buckets, and finished with a game-high 22 points. Jon Teske missed a few early looks but hit three from long range, including on back-to-back possessions in the second half — he had 17 points. Michigan’s entire six man core made at least one three.

The game was even to start. Murphy was aggressive on the glass and had two put backs before the first TV timeout, and Michigan and Minnesota were tied. With Poole’s first three, Michigan embarked on a slow-motion 11-0 run, holding Minnesota scoreless for over five minutes. The Wolverines — namely Teske and Ignas Brazdeikis — held up against Minnesota’s big men, switching 4-5 screens and defending without help, for the most part. Oturu was the only Gopher to play well offensively in the first half: his put-back to just barely beat the buzzer got him to 10 points and 10 rebounds. Murphy eventually got going, but had more offensive rebounds (5) than points (4) before the break. Minnesota’s leading scorer, Amir Coffey, was held scoreless and missed ten shots; freshman sharpshooter Gabe Kalscheur didn’t score until after halftime either.

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[Ludeman]

With a Zavier Simpson three to cap that run and prompt a Richard Pitino timeout, Michigan led 17-6 with just under 12 minutes left in the first half — and the Wolverines wouldn’t lead by less than eight points again in the game. There was a long stretch of ugly basketball that embodied most negative Big Ten stereotypes: the teams had a five and a half minute span with just two combined points towards the end of the half, and Michigan led 28-18 at halftime. It was a poor offensive half for Michigan, but they played fantastic defense and really made it tough for Minnesota to score. The Wolverines gave up 42 points in the second half, but many of those came after the outcome was decided and the Gophers still finished with just 0.90 points per possession.

Coffey opened the second half scoring with a layup after a strong drive past Iggy, but Iggy took over the game for a couple minutes right after that. He drove it at Murphy on the next possession for an and-one bucket (but missed the free throw), then knocked down a wing three from a Simpson-Teske pick-and-roll. Iggy blocked a Murphy shot in the post for the second time, which led to a Poole layup in transition. On the next possession, Iggy attacked an overly aggressive Murphy closeout in the corner, drove baseline, and scored over Oturu. A Teske three finished off a 12-2 run, and the Wolverines were up by 18. With ten minutes left in the game, Michigan had a commanding 53-33 lead.

Minnesota didn’t quit. Murphy, who went with the same move all game (facing up from the mid-post, driving, spinning left, and then shooting with his right hand), finally started drawing some contact and hitting those shots in the second half. A quick 7-0 run featuring Minnesota’s only made three of the game (which came with 8:24 left) and a Dupree McBrayer steal and dunk ate up a little bit of that lead and forced a timeout. A side ball screen and alley-oop layup from Simpson to Teske out of that timeout quieted the crowd. An impressive sequence from Charles Matthews — stopping Coffey at the rim in transition and knocking down a corner three — pushed the lead back to fifteen, and the consecutive Teske threes were daggers that effectively sealed the game.

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[Ludeman]

The Gophers extended it, fouling often despite the score; they were rewarded with a couple of missed free throws by Poole and a couple of Michigan fouls on three-point attempts. It would have required a miraculous comeback though, and Minnesota didn't come close. The home crowd cheered a meaningless Brock Stull jumper shortly before the clock expired, and the 9-point margin of victory understates the comprehensiveness of Michigan’s win. So do the stat lines from Murphy and Oturu: both played well but didn’t score efficiently (Michigan eventually left Oturu wide open in Minnesota’s high-low looks and he kept bricking jumpers) and the Wolverines were content to try to let those two beat them with difficult two-pointers. Coffey had a nightmare game (six points on 18 shot equivalents) mostly thanks to the efforts of Matthews.

Minnesota played Michigan close in Ann Arbor — it was the Wolverines’ worst three-point shooting performance of the season, but they still won. Tonight, in a game that meant a lot to the Gophers and to their NCAA Tournament chances, the Gophers were ice cold from outside (their only good shooter was held to three attempts), Michigan was hot, and it was a blowout. A potential letdown ahead of a highly-anticipated matchup with Michigan State on Sunday was averted, and Michigan kept pace with the other co-leaders in the conference title race.

[Box score after the JUMP]

purdue stands athwart Michigan's title hopes, somehow [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The Big Ten regular season title race may have come down to Indiana's inability to score 50 damn points at home, but let's check the home stretch for the three main contenders anyway. The upshot is it's almost certainly going to take 16 wins to claim a share—there's only a 10% shot someone doesn't get there, going by Torvik's numbers. Maryland and Wisconsin have razor-thin shots to grab a share, but this is a three team race. Those teams:

PURDUE

The decks are relatively clear for the Boilers, which doesn't have a game left they're an underdog in. Their stretch run:

  • @ Nebraska (60% to win)
  • Illinois (88%)
  • Ohio State (79%)
  • @ Minnesota (64%)
  • @ Northwestern (72%)

Torvik has them finishing with 16 wins ~40 percent of the time; 15 or fewer is a ~40% shot; 17 is a 20% shot.

MICHIGAN STATE

Michigan State has the luxury of a half-game lead. Their closing stretch:

  • @ Michigan (44%)
  • @ Indiana (77%)
  • Nebraska (89%)
  • Michigan (69%)

These numbers don't take Nick Ward's absence into account, at least not much. By this point in the season they've got quite a lot of post-Langford MSU baked in. Thanks to the half game lead they're a slight favorite over Purdue to win a solo title. 16 wins is the most common outcome, which is a 43% shot. Their tougher schedule means 17 is harder to get to (14%) and falling short of 16 (42%) more likely. Also: Ward. 

MICHIGAN

Michigan has the hardest remaining schedule because in addition to the MSU home-and-home they've got 1) a fifth game tonight and 2) a trip to Maryland on the docket:

  • @ Minnesota (69%)
  • MSU (56%)
  • Nebraska (85%)
  • @ Maryland (51%)
  • @ MSU (31%)

So their span is wider and it's much harder for them to get to 16 (30% shot) or 17(8%), although they're the main beneficiaries of the Ward injury. Winning tonight will pull them up into numbers parity with the other two teams; Purdue's schedule is easier but at that point they'd have one extra chance to lose.

[After THE JUMP: a seeding crab and the Big Ten bubble]

Well he has to check Ed's boy, Matt McQuaid.

speed in space go for launch

hopefully they don't go 3/22 from three this time 

More reds and greens.

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