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9 years 5 months
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Date Title Body
Ohio State does not…

Ohio State does not currently have the right to use "The": http://edsbs.wikia.com/wiki/The_Traveling_The That right currently belongs to The Michigan State University. Unfortunately, an Ohio State has the chance to earn it back this weekend, though it would seem in the OP's scenario, The MSU locks up the B1G East for us this weekend! 

As requested, my discord…

As requested, my discord username is Volty23

Awesome! Thanks! I don't…

Awesome! Thanks! I don't suppose there is an easy way to calculate the probability of one team winning that territory? It would take awhile to count all those stars!

FYI, that looks like…

FYI, that looks like yesterday's map

man, I just got to 50 Karma…

man, I just got to 50 Karma too! argh.

 

btw, how do you tell what the probability was for each territory?

Praying for you and your

Praying for you and your uncle

I'm in the market for a sport

I'm in the market for a sport coat. Any websites you'd recommend?

Partridge decided to stay

Partridge decided to stay

Unfortunately not. I wish

Unfortunately not. I wish there were but I don't get to make the rules.

I drive a Volt

I love my 2017 Volt. It is surprisingly fun to drive. The electric motors have a ton of low end torque, so it is really quick off the line (though acceleration at higher speeds isn't great). I spend most of my commute below 45 mph anyway though, so no biggie. I love not having to stop at the gas station. I've used only a tank and a half of gas in just over a year with it. 

That said, I don't really see any advantage of the model 3 over the Volt. I am not willing to give up the peace of mind of having a gasoline generator for when the battery runs out. I havent' taken any long trips with it, but like the idea that I could. I also love the interior of my Volt: GM has experience with what customers like inside their vehicles. The model 3 looks very spartan inside and I'm not sure they've put much effort into customer research. And I don't think I'd like to have to touch a screen for everything.

I have immense appreciation for Elon Musk. He is pushing the boundaries in so many industries and is unique as a visionary in our age, but in this case, I think the Volt is a better product.

Agreed

I looked back at the past 10 or so years and a 6-team playoff isn't pretty (assuming P5 conference champions are guaranteed a spot):

In 2015, pick one from AP#5 12-1 Iowa, AP#7 11-1 Ohio State (both of whom lost to MSU), and AP#18 12-1 Houston

In 2014, everything works out pretty as Baylor/TCU combine to take the Big XII champion slot + the at-large slot. No one else has fewer than 2 losses

In 2013, pick one from AP#3 11-1 Alabama, AP#7 12-1 Ohio State, AP#15 11-1 UCF

In 2012, undefeated Notre Dame takes the only at-large spot, so AP#4 S&P+#3 11-1 Florida, AP#5 S&P+#4 11-1 Oregon, and 12-1 Northern Illinois are left out.

In 2011, pick one from AP#2 11-1 Alabama, AP#4 11-1 Stanford, AP#8 11-1 Boise State

In 2010, undefeated AP#3 TCU (Mountain West) takes the only at-large spot, so AP#5 S&P+#6 11-1 Stanford, AP#6 S&P+#3 11-1 Ohio State, AP#7 S&P+#29 Michigan State, and AP#10 S&P+#1(!!!) 11-1 Boise State are all left out.

In 2009, pick one from undefeated AP#3 TCU,  undefeated AP#4 Cincinnati, and 12-1 AP#5 S&P+#1(!!!) Florida

In 2008, pick one from undefeated AP#7 Utah,  undefeated AP#9 Boise State, 11-1 AP#4 Texas, 12-1 AP#5 Alabama, and 11-1 AP#8 Texas Tech

In 2007, only 3 teams have fewer than 2 losses, but only one gets an auto-bid. The other two are 12-0 AP#10 Hawaii and 11-1 AP#8 Kansas(!!!). AP#4 10-2 Georgia and AP#7 11-2 Missouri could also make an argument.

In 2006, even with 4 additional teams getting a chance to play for the title, Michigan is not guaranteed an opportunity after losing in Football Armageddon #1. Also fighting for that last spot are AP#5 11-1 Louisville, AP#6 11-1 Wisconsin, and AP#9 12-0 Boise State.

For the most part, there is just as much, if not more, controversy as a 4-team playoff.

 

I think an 8-team playoff with P5 conference champions + the top Group of 5 team + 2 at large makes the most sense.

Alphabetical

They are in alphabetical, not ranked order...

Great work. I'd be interested

Great work. I'd be interested in seeing how the outliers compare with the work you did here: http://mgoblog.com/content/jimmystats-captain-hindsight-crutin-consensus

I second amazingribs.com they

I second amazingribs.com they have a ridiculous amount of useful information for grilling and smoking just about anything you can imagine. One product that they recommended that is relevant to the discussion here are grill grates: grillgrate.com I had an old Kenmore grill that was almost useless because it had horrible hot spots and cold spots. I replaced the grates with grill grates and the problem is gone. These things are awesome! Everything cooks so evenly now! If I were in the market for a new grill, I'd just buy something cheap and buy a set of grill grates for it.

Year-Over-Year Results

I think what most people are concerned by is not how will we do in the bowl game, but rather how will we do against OSU next year? Thanks for finding the blowouts. Now let's take a look at how Harbaugh's teams did against the same team they were blown out by at the following meeting:

University of San Diego:

Lost to Penn in 2004, did not play in 2005

 

Stanford:

2007 vs UCLA: lost 17-45, 2008 @ UCLA: lost 20-23

2007 vs Oregon: lost 55-31, 2008 @ Oregon: lost 28-35

2007 @ Oregon State: lost 6-23, 2008 vs Oregon State: won 36-28

2008 @ Arizona State: lost 17-41, 2009 vs Arizona State: won 33-14

2008 vs USC: lost 23-45, 2009 @ USC: won 55-21

2010: lost @ Oregon 31-52, moved to NFL before playing them again

 

49ers:

2012 vs Giants: lost 3-26; did not play in 2013

2014: lost @ Broncos 17-42, moved to Michigan before playing them again

Seahawks games (since they play at least twice a year, I figured I'd just list them all):

10/18/2012 vs Seahawks: won 13-6

12/23/2012 @ Seahawks: lost 13-42

9/22/2013 @ Seahawks: lost 3-29

12/8/2013 vs Seahawks: won 19-17

1/19/2014 (NFC championship) @ Seahawks: lost 17-23

11/27/2014 vs Seahawks: lost 3-19

12/14/2014 @ Seahawks: lost 7-17

 

Of these, the most interesting to me are the 2008 losses @ Stanford to ASU and USC. I think we have to throw out 2007 Stanford because clearly 2015 Michigan is much better than 2007 Stanford: it's not surprising that they lost two in a row to UCLA and Oregon. However, it is impressive that a team that went 5-7 in 2008 was able to recover from getting blown out by ASU and USC to beat them handily the following year. Especially USC since they were on the road in 2009 and USC was ranked #11 at the time. That is certainly the closest parallel we have to our situation with OSU.

As for the Seahawks: they split contests in 2012 and 2013 with the home team winning all the games, though the Seahawks won theirs by larger margins. Then in 2014 the team as a whole took a step backwards; we all know the saga. I'm not sure what to do with this or how it applies to the college game.

 

 

Penalties?

Do you know how FEI and S&P+ factor in penalties? I would think that FEI would take them into account more since it is drive-based? After games like PSU where the only way they could advance the ball was through penalties, I wonder what impact that had on our FEI and S&P scores? I wonder if our scores would be different if the officiating this year would have been better. Any thoughts?

I wonder if some of the

I wonder if some of the reason the non conf games look worse in your metric is because the second string D was playing for good chunks of the games as the blowout was already on?

105 yards is an awesome

105 yards is an awesome performance, but I thought the D played a little better last week. Maryland's drops made it feel like they should have got more yards than they did. I thought Stribling's presence was missed since it seemed like Maryland's receivers were able to get separation every once in awhile whereas BYU's never could. Still, an awesome performance and I am excited to see where it can go from here.

In fact it is the play where

In fact it is the play where they used the goal line formation at their own 30 that Brian cited just after the jump in the 5Q5A:Offense preview: http://mgoblog.com/content/five-questions-and-five-answers-offense-2015

Designed to remove trolls

UNLV should be our easiest win, so anyone giving that game a 0% chance of winning is clearly trolling.

The latter

Not sure what an "actual outlier" would be in this case, but the latter would be an accurate description

M 13-14 Utah
I forsee a low

M 13-14 Utah
I forsee a low scoring game that is decided on a last second touchdown that goes against the good guys: either a last second touchdown for them or a failed two minute drill for us.

Nope, it's not for anything,

Nope, it's not for anything, just to satisfy my own curiosities. My approach is pretty simple. Remove outliers. Average out the win probabilities for each game. Then randomly select an outcome for each game in accordance with the win probabilities. Then sum up the number of wins for the season. Do this a couple thousand times and I'll get a distribution of expected wins.

If you have suggestions to improve my approach, I'd love to hear them.

I'm not familiar with Massey

I'm not familiar with Massey ratings, but that sounds like a great idea. Any others I should compare to?

Yeah, I could do that, but

Yeah, I could do that, but felt an individual game by game breakdown would be more interesting. My primary goal wasn't to test the theory; it just served as an inspiration that I ended up taking in a different direction.

I've added another total wins question at the end of the survey.

3 days left to fill out my

3 days left to fill out my preseason survey! If you haven't filled this out yet, please do so. I am doing an experiment to see how accurately the wisdom of the entire MGoCommunity can predict the outcome of the season. Unfortunately, I don't have enough points yet to make my own thread. Here is the link:https://www.quicksurveys.com/s/Cj74PpK

 

More info here: http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/there-are-376#comment-3302599

Bang Bang!

Almost football time! w00t!

Had my first chemex

Had my first chemex experience just two days ago at the Starbucks reserve. That's a really cool place! Having the barista explain the chemex process was really interesting, but the result wasn't my favorite. I had the same coffee (Costa Rican) brewed on their clover machine as well and liked the clover results a lot better: one of the best coffees I've ever had. I also got to watch the barista brew one using the siphon method for another customer. I don't know how it tasted but it sure was fun to watch!

At home, I quite enjoy my Nespresso machine. I would rather spend my time enjoying my coffee than brewing it, and the Nespresso is quick, delicious, and easy to clean. I like making a lungo rather than coffee, and I also make lattes and cappuccinos that in my opinion turn out better than the ones I get at Starbucks.

Arrived in Seattle today, so

Arrived in Seattle today, so it's only 9:40 on Thursday here, but I'm still in for a bang. 5 day weekend vacation! Any recommendations for what to see?

No, the sugar bowl season we

No, the sugar bowl season we had them at home. This clip was from the 2012 game. We haven't won in Columbus since 2000 :(

Agreed

Yeah, I fully intend to throw out outliers. I recognize that the blog will be naturally biased towards extra wins, but there are a lot of skeptics on here too (especially after the last few years).

I'm not necessarily trying to prove the theory applies to this scenario; I view it as more of a cooperative competetion to see how well we as a blog can predict the outcome. Can we do better than Dr. Feng? He predicts 7.7 wins. See here: http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/det-news-article-predicting-number-michigan-wins-season

If I were trying to get the most accurate prediction, you're right I would need to get others' input. I'd need a lot more people with a neutral opinion of Michigan and some rival fans to balance us out. However, I do not have a good forum to solicit these responses, nor would they be very motivated to fill the survey out. I'm open to suggestions, though.

Preseason Survey
16 days left to fill out my preseason survey! I posted this over in another thread, but I don't think many people saw it. I am doing an experiment to see how accurately the wisdom of the entire MGoCommunity can predict the outcome of the season. Unfortunately, I don't have enough points yet to make my own thread. Here is the link: https://www.quicksurveys.com/s/Cj74PpK
 
 
 
Here is the background:
 
I heard this podcast this week and it inspired me to do a similar experiment but with football: http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/08/07/430372183/episode-644-how-much-does-this-cow-weigh
 
They state that a crowd can better guess the value of something than any individual. They tested this theory by asking their listeners to guess the weight of the cow. When they averaged out all of the guesses, they found the crowd was within 5%. The sub group who self identified as experts actually did slightly worse! I'd like to put this theory to the test using the MGoCommunity as the crowd and the Michigan football results as the value to be guessed. I think it will be really interesting to see how we do. I will post the results at the beginning of the season and then revisit them at the end to see how we did.
Ok, I created the survey.

Ok, I created the survey. Hopefully a few people will see it here, or maybe someone can create a post for me.

 

I've been wanting to do this for awhile, then heard this podcast this week: http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/08/07/430372183/episode-644-how-much-does-this-cow-weigh

They state that a crowd can better guess the value of something than any individual. They tested this theory by asking their listeners to guess the weight of the cow. When they averaged out all of the guesses, they found the crowd was within 5%. The sub group who self identified as experts actually did slightly worse! I'd like to put this theory to the test using the MGoCommunity as the crowd and the Michigan football results as the value to be guessed. I think it will be really interesting to see how we do. I will post the results at the beginning of the season and then revisit them at the end to see how we did.

 

Here is the link to the survey: https://www.quicksurveys.com/s/Cj74PpK

Agreed. I'd love to set up a

Agreed. I'd love to set up a Monte Carlo simulation based on the board's opinion of our chances in each game, but alas I don't have enough points to start a thread for the survey. Can I get some help in the points department? 

Me too

This is the best way to reach 100 so I can bang too, right?

Dropping off my 2 year old daughter at Grandma and Grandpa's for her first sleepover tonight! Can't wait!

Houston

See username

Indeed

http://247sports.com/Player/Daelin-Hayes-25739

Michigan 50%, USC 23% despite his commitment

OSU was a 3 seed

Lost to Miami in the 2nd round 49%-51%: 

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/251096…

Stratford Spartans

Yes, I work less than a mile from Stratford high school and can confirm that their mascot is a spartan and their colors are green and white. I was quite confused by all the "State" bumper stickers when I first moved down here.

other philosophies?

Great stuff! I've heard the terms "air raid" and "dink and dunk" used, but I have no idea what they mean. Are these additional systems or subsets of the systems you've already mentioned?