Willing to give Harbaugh a final chance with this year's OSU game.
* 2015: First year, team was just outclassed after halftime. Losing key players hurt. OSU was also just pissed after throwing away that game vs MSU.
* 2017: The fact that Michigan was in it late in the 4th with O'Korn at QB is actually a testament to Harbaugh's coaching.
* 2019: Honestly, players made so many stupid mistakes (fumbles, penalties, etc.) that led to the deficit at halftime. The fact that if the RB went to the other open hole (as opposed to the wrong one) in the 4Q, the game would have been a 1 possession, shows that the team could have been close.
* 2021: This is a talented and good team. We're at home. We should be pissed after choking to MSU. This is all the recipe for a signature win for Harbaugh.
Somebody not directly related to Michigan needs to ask Urban Meyer who he thinks are the best up and coming assistants or coaches. Choose somebody from that list.
We don't win conference titles or reach the Playoff without defeating Ohio State vast majority of the time.
Sure, we could sneak into the B10 title game if OSU had two other conference losses and we just had one (similar to 2016 PSU). Likewise, we could make the Playoff if we were like the 2016 team except OSU won the B10 that year. Both of those scenarios are rare.
The next improvement from where the program is now is instead of 9-4 or 10-3, we go 11-2 or 12-1, always beat MSU, and win non-CFP New York Six games. But I doubt many would have been ecstatic if we went 11-2 in 2016 and 2018 by winning those bowl games as opposed to 10-3; we still would have lost to OSU and denied the conference championship and CFP.
For real though, noooobooooody has a more consistent program than Harbaugh:
* 10-3; 10-3; 8-5; 10-3; 9-4 = 7 win floors, 11 win ceilings, 9-10 wins on average
* Second-tier Top 10-20 program always
* Guaranteed losses to Ohio State (0-5 likely 0-6 after this year)
* Splits games with Michigan State (3-3)
* Destroys every other ranked team at home
* Loses road/bowl games against any top 15 team with comparable player talent
Harbaugh has made UM predictable. Will that maintain revenue? Probably. Is it fun or exciting to watch when you can almost predict how literally every season will go? Not as much.
Every fanbase is going to have an asinine vocal minority that brings down the rest of the fanbase and the institution they are repping. What happened with Nassar and Anderson were tragedies that revealed gross mismanagement by those who knew and did nothing despite being in leadership positions.
And anyone using such tragedies as pretext to starting generalizing/insulting others is pretty pathetic.
Year 1: 10-3 (12,11)
Year 2: 10-3 (10,10)
Year 3: 8-5 (NR, NR)
Year 4: 10-3 (14,14)
Year 5: 9-3* (Bowl win vs USC/Washington/SEC opponent would rank us between 10-15 again and give the program four 10-win seasons in the past five years)
Total: 47-17 (73.44%)
Vs Ranked: 9-13
Vs AP 10 (at the time of ranking): 2-11
Road/Neutral field: 16-12
Bowl record: 1-3 (Though it's arguable the team doesn't care after losing to OSU)
* Rivals:
OSU: 0-5
MSU: 3-2
ND: 1-1
MINN: 2-0
Total: 6-8 (but there's only one stat that matters here)
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Basically Harbaugh has stabilized the program over these past five years. We're a Top 10-15 team under him. His teams always defeat teams with lesser talent, and he has a strong home record against anybody minus OSU. Unfortunately, the road/neutral field record is alarming, as well as the record against AP Top 10 opponents. Lastly, and probably most damning, is the 0-5 record to OSU, which hurts even more because beating them is the only path to a B10 title and CFP berth.
So ask yourselves: For a program with the level of our resources, money, and recruiting classes, are we reaching our potential?
Bielema's Arkansas record is nothing to write about, so focusing only on his time at Wisconsin:
Bielema went 12-1, 9-4, 7-6, and 10-3 his first four seasons at Wisconsin, matching Harbaugh's record exactly.
I think it's only fair to compare his first four seasons to Harbaugh's. Bielema didn't win the B10 until his years 5-7, and that too it was during an arguably weaker B10 with Michigan trying to rebound, Meyer coming only in 2012, etc.
2011 he was blessed to have Russel Wilson as his QB, and in 2012 OSU would have gone to the title game instead if not for being ineligible. Hell, if Denard didn't get injured during that Nebraska game, Wisconsin would have faced (and lost to) Michigan in the title game instead.
I know it seems unlikely now, but Penn State pulled it off in 2016, so let's see how this year fares for Harbaugh. I'm sure he'll be retained for next year as well barring a catastrophic result (losing all of the big games + bowl game), so if he can't get it done by end of year 6, then you might be justified to make this comparison (emphasis on might).
We probably crack the Top 10 w/11-2 if that infamous blocked punt loss to MSU didn't happen.
2016: 10-3; #10 final AP Poll.
Let's be real though, the bowl game was an after thought after we got screwed out of the CFP thanks to The Spot. Not to mention, Florida State finally played to their Top 5 preseason potential and only won by 1 point at the very end of the game.
2017: 8-5; unranked
However, 4/5 losses were to Top 15 teams in the final AP Poll and we didn't have any consistent QB play all season. With a healthy Speight or Patterson, we probably win 2/5 and go 10-3 again.
2018: 10-3; #14 final AP Poll.
2/3 losses were to ND and OSU away, and both finished top 5. After losing out on the CFP to OSU and being put against Florida again on the 29th, we didn't care about this game at all, while Florida was wanting revenge and making a statement.
2019: I think we defeat Illinois, Maryland, and Indiana, and if we go 3/5 between PSU/ND/MSU/OSU/bowl opponent, we finish 10-3 again and likely another top 15 finish.
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There's a good chance that Harbaugh goes 10-3 and Top 15 in four out of five seasons.
Biggest knocks against Harbaugh are the 2-7 record against the rivals (including 0-4 vs OSU), and the 1-9 record to ranked (come final AP Poll) opponents on the road.
So you have to ask yourselves with our current recruiting classes and money spent and facilities (in relation to the current tier-1 teams of Bama/Clemson/OSU/Oklahoma/Georgia), would 10-3 seasons and Top 15 finishes but poor away/rivaly records be considered "doing less with more."
* 2013: L 13-17 Nebraska (miserable game); L 41-42 OSU (heartbreaker): combined by just 5 pts
* 2014: It all fell apart here of course...
Harbaugh:
* 2015: Fluke blocked punt vs MSU; only blowout so far against OSU who should've made the CFP
* 2016: Undefeated
* 2017: Loss by a TD in those horrible conditions vs MSU; close game until late in the 4th vs OSU: both games with sub-par QB play (we win both with Shea)
* 2018: Undefeated
* 2019: So far undefeated...
Best thing Harbaugh has going to save his job and give us another 10 win season is that OSU, MSU, and ND are all at home. Perhaps we lose away to PSU and at home to OSU, but win vs MSU and ND at home and then some Florida-based bowl game on New Years to get that 10-3 season once again lol.
We need to get our receivers to run more crossing routes. Get the ball out of Shea's hands quickly and let our best athletes do their thing. Every X amount of plays, throw some 20 yard+ pass. Some drives we shouldn't run the ball at all. Make the defense respect the aerial attack so we can open up the run game later.
If Shea can't make the reads or the passes by now, then go to somebody else.
I say let Milton start the Illinois game. Worst case if he plays badly, then Patterson can be inserted in the second half and we'd still probably win because our defense will presumably be keeping it close.
Iowa was predicted by a lot of people to win the B10 West preseason, and are currently #14. They're a good team. Our offense getting shut down by them isn't the end of the world. I do agree, however, that our playcalling needs to be more aggressive and target our NFL-esque receivers more.
I like seeing a 'bend but don't break' defense. Conserving energy and not worrying if the opposing team consistently drives out of their side of the field. But then once past the 50 and with a shorter field, ramp up the pressure and force the opposition to only try for FGs. Iowa got 260 yards in the air today, but those yards went nowhere ultimately.
I honestly think that's what is needed against the remaining tough teams on the schedule. OSU is going to drive the ball no matter what. However, as long as we tighten up once they get to our side of the field and prevent the TDs and only give them FGs at best, then we have a shot.
Take out his first year (an unrealistic expectation anyway since we were rebuilding), and we were in playoff contention 2/3 years until we ran into OSU.
We have a 10 win baseline barring some QB disaster like in 2017 (where we still ended up with 8 wins and very competitive losses).
We lost to a very well-coached, solid Wisconsin team on the road. Not the worst thing in the world.
All the big games are still up ahead, the three most important at home as well.
I get that we're all upset by this game turned out, but maybe we should reassess after this season is over.
Let's see how the team fares at the end of the season. If Harbaugh loses to ND, MSU, and OSU at home + PSU on the road, then okay, probably have to look to someone else.
If he loses to ND, MSU, and PSU, but defeats OSU, then he deserves one more season with the new offense fully implemented by then.
If he beats MSU and/or ND or PSU, but loses to OSU again, then he maybe deserves one more season but if he loses to OSU again, then he's gone. If we're a 9 or 10 win team not competing for championships, then we should at least be beating OSU.
I agree there are "ifs", but I don't think it's enough to reach a breaking point yet.
This isn't like Rich Rod, who was too slow to develop the program, or Hoke, where it was a downward trend.
2 out of the 4 Harbaugh years we were legitimate Playoff contenders until we suffered demoralizing away losses to OSU. The other 2 years were his first year, which you can't even count, and the third year, which was just weird because of the QB carousel.
I am a believer that that all of those wrongs that happened will be made up over time, where we'll get the breaks finally.
Right now we have a steady 10 win program (even 2017 with the QB madness we got 8 wins and looked competitive in most of the losses), getting top 10-15 recruiting classes, and just need that elusive win over OSU that I think will instill the confidence and belief in Harbaugh and co.
All this talk about culture and clean programs, but it's just the coaches and 18-23 year olds coming just short:
If MSU doesn't pull out the miracle of the century, we'd have been in the New Year's Six in Harbaugh's first year.
If the homer refs didn't suck and screw us over with the Spot, we'd have won the B10 and been in the College Football Playoff in Harbaugh's second year.
If Speight and later Peters didn't get injured, we'd have actually been more competitive against MSU, OSU, and Wisconsin and probably gone 10-2 in the regular season as opposed to 8-4 and been in another New Year's Six in Harbaugh's third year.
No complaints about year 4. Away loss to ND, who went to the playoff. The away loss to OSU in Urban's final home game was necessary for us to modernize our offense. If we weren't so agonizingly close to the Playoff and had a better bowl game than fucking Florida on the 29th, we'd have actually tried in that New Year's Six bowl too.
2/4 years we were contenders, and ran into Urban's OSU teams at Columbus. We are basically in the tier below the likes of Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, and Oklahoma.
Let's see how this season and next season turns out. I believe that the universe will find ways to make up for those mishaps in the first four years.
I think Harbaugh was unlucky that the two years where we were good (2016, 2018), we had to play OSU at Columbus against an all-time great college football coach (yes Urban sold his soul to the devil in exchange for winning).
I think if he can win against OSU at home first, that would be a big hurdle his program will have overcome, and can give confidence that his team can do it away like they almost did in 2016.
Honestly, this season isn't over yet whatsoever. ND, MSU, and OSU are all at home. Win those three games, and even if we lose at Penn State or Indiana, it will be a successful season.
In fact, Harbaugh has only had one "bad" year, and that was 2017 with the crazy QB injuries. 2015 was above expectations considering we weren't even ranked preseason. 2016 was terrible bad luck. 2018 the losses were to two top-5 opponents on the road.
Harbaugh also hasn't had much QB continuity either. Ruddock was one season. Speight was a season and a half before he got injured. Shea is just now in his second season under Harbaugh, and they're introducing a new offense. Maybe you could argue he should stop with the transfers and develop his true freshmen recruits from the get-go, but that's another debate.
Year 1: Fairly close loss in the first game away to a Utah team that would end up ranked end of season (whom we would have beat end of season). The obvious infamous blocked punt vs MSU that 9.9/10 would have been a win. And an angry OSU team that just lost to MSU at home and Urban let Zeke run wild while we had a key injury (I think it was Glasgow?). In an alternate universe, we win the MSU game and go to the New Year's Six and finish 11-2 as opposed to 10-3.
Year 2: Oh boy, missed opportunities. Speight gets injured at the Iowa trap game. Last second FG loss. The Spot vs OSU. And Florida State finally plays to their top 5 preseason ranking and win on a last second TD that was so close to being an INT. In an alternate universe, we would have either beat Iowa or OSU, won the title game, and likely lost to either Clemson or Alabama in the playoff with a 12-2 record as opposed to 10-3.
Year 3: Poor QB play all year. Honestly, if we had even a Shea-level QB, we win the MSU and OSU games for sure, and maybe the Wisconsin game. In an alternate universe, we'd have gone 10-2 and end up in another New Year's Six and either win/lose. But having underdeveloped QBs is on the coaches.
Year 4: Honestly both of our losses were away games to top 5 teams in the final AP poll. OSU gashing our defense sucked, but honestly I think watching them use their speed in space with their best athletes is probably what sparked us to reinvent our offense. I'm not going to talk about the bowl game because it was obvious we gave zero fucks about playing Florida again on December 29, while Florida clearly had everything to prove.
Year 5: Things are shaky with the offense shift. Losing at Camp Randall is justified. I'll hold out till the end of the season. We have ND, MSU, and OSU later half of the season at home. If we win those games, any blips early in the season are forgiven.
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Honestly we were sooo close. Especially in Year 1 and Year 2. There were two infamous plays away from being New Year's Six + B10 Championship/Playoff years. Year 4 I think we did as well as we could. Year 3 is on the coaches for not having good QB play. Year 5 is up in the air.
The narrative around Harbaugh would be so different if things went just a bit differently. The big, big thing is our inability to win on the road. We just choke in those games. I don't know, maybe we should hire some sports psychologists to help fix those key mental errors.
It took Dabo Sweeney about five or so years before he got the Clemson machine rolling, so I don't think we should give up on Harbaugh yet. I do wish he showed some more spirit though like he did in the first two years.
Camp Randall is a hard place to win. I didn't expect a win, considering Wisconsin is looking good this year and we're in the middle of an offensive philosophy change. That being said, 0-28 at halftime and mediocre QB play was disappointing. At least 14-35 doesn't look as bad as 0-42, which is what I thought might be the score during halftime.
All our goals are technically still on the table. Run the table, and beat Wisconsin in a rematch at the conference title game, and there we go. Chances of that happening though after today is pretty slim, but again, Camp Randall is a tough place to play. Hopefully the offense figures itself out by the time ND, MSU, and OSU roll around.
I say slap the interim tag on Yaklich and give him a go for next year. Shaka and Cooley aren't going anywhere. We can always grab one of them next season if Yaklich doesn't pan out. And even if they are hired elsewhere in the meantime, it's not a big loss whatsoever.
I imagine these types of cover-ups have happened or are happening in a lot of places. It's a shame how a handful of people can utterly tarnish a major institution. Hopefully this hasn't occurred here, and won't ever in the future.
I think many look at OSU's insane record under Tressel + Urban and wonder "Why can't we do the same?" We're among the top 5 most valuable football programs, and have the brand name, infrastructure, and $$$ to hire top coaches. We've gotten top 10 recruiting classes several times since 2012.
10-3 season floors are nice, but it's understandable for a fan base to get frustrated over not being able to beat the arch rival and not making it to the B10 title game even once despite having all those resources.
What's the point of justifying these losses? If Gardner wasn't hurt and Denard just broke a couple of tackles to make another run, we'd have won in 2012. If Gardner hadn't broken his foot and the 2 point conversion was executed better, we'd have won in 2013. If the refs weren't garbage and we stopped JT a couple inches back, the Spot would have been reversed. If our QB was just average, we'd have won in 2017. If our defense didn't have injuries (BTW OSU didn't have Bosa) and wasn't overconfident, we might have won this year. If, if, if, if. At the end of the day, it's another loss and no explanation is going to make it better.
It doesn't matter how. We need to just pull out a win. MSU with its significantly inferior talent beat Meyer-led OSU in a B10 title game and went into Columbus and won in must-win games for both schools. There's no excuse why we can't.
Clemson played inspired football with an outstanding game plan. They allowed the defense to not be afraid of giving up a bunch of yards, but focus on making the stops that mattered, and offered the defense breathing room and momentum thanks to the offense continuing to score and putting undue pressure on Alabama's offense. And Clemson's offense succeeded because it actually made use of its 5* QB and its best playmakers to make plays.
Blowouts happen in college football. These are still kids who are teenagers and in their early twenties.
The only thing though the OSU loss did is further reiterate that OSU's top priority every season is to beat Michigan (reiterated by Day when he was introduced as HC) and they practice the entire season for it. They don't care about the Purdues or Marylands. They have arguably the best recruiting classes after Alabama, and we get the full force of it each year. It also doesn't help when we have yet another pyrrhic win against Indiana, who seem to gift-wrap OSU the strategy for beating us (especially when they have better talent). Add to the fact that they've had all-time great coaches in Tressel and Meyer, the latter of whom knows how to game plan and shift his offense to what works best, and it's been a recipe of misery for us.
The 2017 season would have definitely been another 10-3 season if the QB, the most important role, position was more stable. And we'd have definitely been ranked then. I think it's safe to say we're a top 10-15 program, but if we don't have the auto-losses to OSU late in the season, we're in the top 10. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia are at the top, and then we're among the next group of teams that are consistently in contention.
Y'know, Harbaugh is right that the team made strides in 2018. Preseason, most of us expected we'd go something ~9-3 in the regular season and the AP Poll had us behind four B10 teams. Coming off an 8-5 season in 2017, I think the goal was just to get consistent QB play, have players develop, and try to win as many games as possible without any real expectations considering we had to travel to ND, MSU, and OSU, as well as play tough Wisconsin and Penn State teams at home.
I'm just spitballing here, but I feel that the close loss to ND in week one followed by the string of blowout wins might have left the coaching and players too sure of themselves and their play-style going into OSU. And once that blowout occurred and we were sent to play a perceived non-challenge in Florida again in the Peach on the 29th where some of the best players sat out, that set us ripe for another blowout.
But I think the blowouts in the last two games against elite opponents hopefully help Harbaugh and the players push the team in the right direction going into 2019. Offense has become too explosive in NCAAF and the NFL, and the team has to follow suit. And on the defensive side, even the vaunted Bears defense gave up 300+ total yards against the Eagles. Heck Clemson let Alabama run up and down the field, but made the stops that mattered. It's all about making critical stops on 3rd/4th downs and restricting TDs to FGs.
This game showed why the offense needs to become more explosive, and rely on its elite playmakers.
Clemson's offense kept scoring, forcing Alabama's offense to become more desperate, thereby relieving some pressure and helping the defense.
And Clemson's defense played so smartly. They didn't try to blitz every play and hold Bama to under 100 yards. In fact, they gave up 443 yards. Rather, they made the plays that mattered in preventing Bama from scoring or converting on 3rd or 4th down.
RichRod for sure should have gotten one or two more years. Three years is too short to completely revamp a system. All he needed was to hire a good DC.
We have Patterson, McCaffrey, Peters, and Milton, all of whom were ranked top ten among pro-style QB recruits. At least among QBs, we should not have to worry about depth.
Hmm, he inherited the 6th, 4th, 20th, and 37th ranked classes from 2012-2015, but agree the last two years of Hoke weren’t good in recruiting. However Harbaugh has gotten pretty good recruiting classes (8, 5, 22) entering into this fourth year. I definitely agree that he exceeded expectations in year 1, but with the NFL draft talent we had in his second year at least 11-2 should have happened. Year 3 was weird with the QB injuries. However, this year we should have at least been more competitive against OSU and for sure been able to beat Florida (at least not get blown out).
This next season is the defining one. Year 5. All of his recruits. Returning QB and WRs. The incoming recruits were another top 10 ranked class. ND, MSU (after a bye week), and OSU (with a new coach) are all at home.
Tbf, Rudock was a two-year starter and played all the games for Iowa prior to transferring here. Shea only played 3 and 7 games in his first two seasons at Ole Miss.
Eh, feels like we've been the same since Harbaugh arrived. We were 10-3 in years 1 and 2, probably would have gone 10-3 last year if the QB role wasn't so unstable, and went 10-3 this year. We beat the teams we're supposed, but struggle against anyone in the top 10. I guess having a floor of 10 games is pretty nice though. I hope Harbaugh will be like Dabo and the programs levels up from year 5 onward.
If our defense isn't fast enough to stop their offense in space, then the defense needs to be okay with OSU getting yards and moving up the field. The energy needs to be saved for the red zone and trying to clamp them down where there's less space. Turning 3 TDs into FGs would be huge.
Shea needs to improve on the accuracy and deep ball, but it would help any QB with their confidence and growth if they're allowed throughout the season to air the ball out more to quality WRs. Or even just dink-and-dunk to elite WRs who can get YAC.
"When you get in critical situations in the game, don't think of plays, think of players."
- Saban said in an interview from this week.
We need a modern offense that's flexible. The current vanilla old-school offense is fine against teams with lesser talent where we're favored since we can 'mask' our true offensive potential. When it comes to OSU (and other top teams) though, they're going to score no matter how well the defense plays, so the offense needs to keep up. Having the right game plan is essential, but this is where we need to rely on our best athletes/players. We have some NFL-esque guys on this offense, viz. the WR corps, the QB, and possibly RB with Charbonnet coming. I always see so how many complaints and excuses about how OSU has superior talent, well, why not let our best talent shine?
Against any top team, the defense can afford to bend, just not break. Like it’s okay if a team marches down the field, just save the energy to keep them to FGs, not TDs.
I will gladly take any 8-4 regular season with a win over OSU than a 10-2 without. Next year, the MSU game is right after the bye, then Indiana, then OSU. The Indiana game can go to the dumps for all I care. Put the second team in so nobody critical gets hurt.
The play calling is a major issue. We had one of the best WR cores in the country, yet it never felt like that was exploited. And yeah, Shea was efficient, but there were never games where his arm completely took over (plus there were a bunch of times this year he underthrew receivers).
Beating OSU needs to be the #1 priority. Spend some time each week for OSU. I don’t care if we have to tank the previous week’s game before if it means an extra week of preparation and rest. Indiana always feels like some Pyrrhic victory anyway.
Wonder if this man would say the same thing if it involved Saban...
Not like any of this, or all of these threads, are going to mean much. I'd be shocked if OSU did anything more than a non-conference game suspension or a fine. Too many people care about winning, morals be damned.
I don't think many people understand how much skill, knowledge, experience, and effort it takes to be really good at any of the major esports, especially League. On top of that, having the teamwork, synergy, and ingenuity in-game to make the right decisions is far from easy.
Good job to the team. Hopefully they can make a title run.
You nailed it. What Nassar was doing is certainly not something that's taught currently and regardless, even if he wasn't a DO and/or knew OMM, that POS would have found some medical "technique" to one way or another justify what he was doing.
And yeah, vast majority of my generation of future DOs probably won't practice OMM, or at most only keep it to the MSK stuff (where it's actually quite useful and works wonder (especially when you're studying all the time)).
Except...her degree is the same in all but two letters. Most patients don't know nor care about the letters behind the doc's name. There are DOs and MDs working side by side at UM Hospital with equal practice rights.
As you should. Words can only mean so much. My hope is that MSU will rectify these wrongs, and ensure that something like this never occurs again. In fact, I hope every institution looks at what happened at Penn State or MSU or elsewhere and has the protocols in place and the right people in charge to ensure things don't get swept under the rug or escalate to this level.
I can't speak for those Spartans. From what I've seen first-hand, absolutely none of the med students blame the victims whatsoever (in fact students are actively working with administration to create change) and it seems the undergrads have also rallied behind the survivors. When you have as large of a community like a MSU or UM or OSU, there are going to be some idiots with terrible opinions. How I've been raised, and as someone who's going to become a physician, it's very important for me to not cast overaching judgments and/or place blanket opinions on an entire community without hearing individual perspectives.
On the flip side, someone might want to wear a Penn State shirt or a MSU shirt because they do have some pride in their school for giving them a solid education, and they might want to wear it because they want to show there are normal, good everyday people who live their lives in a way much more fitting of these institutions' values. I completely understand your point about tact, and I probably wouldn't have worn such an outfit a couple months back either. I just think that it's never so black-and-white.
Recent Comments
Willing to give Harbaugh a final chance with this year's OSU game.
* 2015: First year, team was just outclassed after halftime. Losing key players hurt. OSU was also just pissed after throwing away that game vs MSU.
* 2017: The fact that Michigan was in it late in the 4th with O'Korn at QB is actually a testament to Harbaugh's coaching.
* 2019: Honestly, players made so many stupid mistakes (fumbles, penalties, etc.) that led to the deficit at halftime. The fact that if the RB went to the other open hole (as opposed to the wrong one) in the 4Q, the game would have been a 1 possession, shows that the team could have been close.
* 2021: This is a talented and good team. We're at home. We should be pissed after choking to MSU. This is all the recipe for a signature win for Harbaugh.
Somebody not directly related to Michigan needs to ask Urban Meyer who he thinks are the best up and coming assistants or coaches. Choose somebody from that list.
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What are the expectations?
We don't win conference titles or reach the Playoff without defeating Ohio State vast majority of the time.
Sure, we could sneak into the B10 title game if OSU had two other conference losses and we just had one (similar to 2016 PSU). Likewise, we could make the Playoff if we were like the 2016 team except OSU won the B10 that year. Both of those scenarios are rare.
The next improvement from where the program is now is instead of 9-4 or 10-3, we go 11-2 or 12-1, always beat MSU, and win non-CFP New York Six games. But I doubt many would have been ecstatic if we went 11-2 in 2016 and 2018 by winning those bowl games as opposed to 10-3; we still would have lost to OSU and denied the conference championship and CFP.
For real though, noooobooooody has a more consistent program than Harbaugh:
* 10-3; 10-3; 8-5; 10-3; 9-4 = 7 win floors, 11 win ceilings, 9-10 wins on average
* Second-tier Top 10-20 program always
* Guaranteed losses to Ohio State (0-5 likely 0-6 after this year)
* Splits games with Michigan State (3-3)
* Destroys every other ranked team at home
* Loses road/bowl games against any top 15 team with comparable player talent
Harbaugh has made UM predictable. Will that maintain revenue? Probably. Is it fun or exciting to watch when you can almost predict how literally every season will go? Not as much.
Every fanbase is going to have an asinine vocal minority that brings down the rest of the fanbase and the institution they are repping. What happened with Nassar and Anderson were tragedies that revealed gross mismanagement by those who knew and did nothing despite being in leadership positions.
And anyone using such tragedies as pretext to starting generalizing/insulting others is pretty pathetic.
5-Year Numbers Evaluation of Harbaugh:
* Record (Final AP, Final Coaches ranking):
Year 1: 10-3 (12,11)
Year 2: 10-3 (10,10)
Year 3: 8-5 (NR, NR)
Year 4: 10-3 (14,14)
Year 5: 9-3* (Bowl win vs USC/Washington/SEC opponent would rank us between 10-15 again and give the program four 10-win seasons in the past five years)
Total: 47-17 (73.44%)
Vs Ranked: 9-13
Vs AP 10 (at the time of ranking): 2-11
Road/Neutral field: 16-12
Bowl record: 1-3 (Though it's arguable the team doesn't care after losing to OSU)
* Rivals:
OSU: 0-5
MSU: 3-2
ND: 1-1
MINN: 2-0
Total: 6-8 (but there's only one stat that matters here)
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Basically Harbaugh has stabilized the program over these past five years. We're a Top 10-15 team under him. His teams always defeat teams with lesser talent, and he has a strong home record against anybody minus OSU. Unfortunately, the road/neutral field record is alarming, as well as the record against AP Top 10 opponents. Lastly, and probably most damning, is the 0-5 record to OSU, which hurts even more because beating them is the only path to a B10 title and CFP berth.
So ask yourselves: For a program with the level of our resources, money, and recruiting classes, are we reaching our potential?
Bielema's Arkansas record is nothing to write about, so focusing only on his time at Wisconsin:
Bielema went 12-1, 9-4, 7-6, and 10-3 his first four seasons at Wisconsin, matching Harbaugh's record exactly.
I think it's only fair to compare his first four seasons to Harbaugh's. Bielema didn't win the B10 until his years 5-7, and that too it was during an arguably weaker B10 with Michigan trying to rebound, Meyer coming only in 2012, etc.
2011 he was blessed to have Russel Wilson as his QB, and in 2012 OSU would have gone to the title game instead if not for being ineligible. Hell, if Denard didn't get injured during that Nebraska game, Wisconsin would have faced (and lost to) Michigan in the title game instead.
I know it seems unlikely now, but Penn State pulled it off in 2016, so let's see how this year fares for Harbaugh. I'm sure he'll be retained for next year as well barring a catastrophic result (losing all of the big games + bowl game), so if he can't get it done by end of year 6, then you might be justified to make this comparison (emphasis on might).
2015: 10-3; #12 final AP Poll.
We probably crack the Top 10 w/11-2 if that infamous blocked punt loss to MSU didn't happen.
2016: 10-3; #10 final AP Poll.
Let's be real though, the bowl game was an after thought after we got screwed out of the CFP thanks to The Spot. Not to mention, Florida State finally played to their Top 5 preseason potential and only won by 1 point at the very end of the game.
2017: 8-5; unranked
However, 4/5 losses were to Top 15 teams in the final AP Poll and we didn't have any consistent QB play all season. With a healthy Speight or Patterson, we probably win 2/5 and go 10-3 again.
2018: 10-3; #14 final AP Poll.
2/3 losses were to ND and OSU away, and both finished top 5. After losing out on the CFP to OSU and being put against Florida again on the 29th, we didn't care about this game at all, while Florida was wanting revenge and making a statement.
2019: I think we defeat Illinois, Maryland, and Indiana, and if we go 3/5 between PSU/ND/MSU/OSU/bowl opponent, we finish 10-3 again and likely another top 15 finish.
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There's a good chance that Harbaugh goes 10-3 and Top 15 in four out of five seasons.
Biggest knocks against Harbaugh are the 2-7 record against the rivals (including 0-4 vs OSU), and the 1-9 record to ranked (come final AP Poll) opponents on the road.
So you have to ask yourselves with our current recruiting classes and money spent and facilities (in relation to the current tier-1 teams of Bama/Clemson/OSU/Oklahoma/Georgia), would 10-3 seasons and Top 15 finishes but poor away/rivaly records be considered "doing less with more."
Our recent coaches fare relatively well at home.
Hoke:
* 2011: Undefeated
* 2012: Undefeated
* 2013: L 13-17 Nebraska (miserable game); L 41-42 OSU (heartbreaker): combined by just 5 pts
* 2014: It all fell apart here of course...
Harbaugh:
* 2015: Fluke blocked punt vs MSU; only blowout so far against OSU who should've made the CFP
* 2016: Undefeated
* 2017: Loss by a TD in those horrible conditions vs MSU; close game until late in the 4th vs OSU: both games with sub-par QB play (we win both with Shea)
* 2018: Undefeated
* 2019: So far undefeated...
Best thing Harbaugh has going to save his job and give us another 10 win season is that OSU, MSU, and ND are all at home. Perhaps we lose away to PSU and at home to OSU, but win vs MSU and ND at home and then some Florida-based bowl game on New Years to get that 10-3 season once again lol.
We need to get our receivers to run more crossing routes. Get the ball out of Shea's hands quickly and let our best athletes do their thing. Every X amount of plays, throw some 20 yard+ pass. Some drives we shouldn't run the ball at all. Make the defense respect the aerial attack so we can open up the run game later.
If Shea can't make the reads or the passes by now, then go to somebody else.
I say let Milton start the Illinois game. Worst case if he plays badly, then Patterson can be inserted in the second half and we'd still probably win because our defense will presumably be keeping it close.
Iowa was predicted by a lot of people to win the B10 West preseason, and are currently #14. They're a good team. Our offense getting shut down by them isn't the end of the world. I do agree, however, that our playcalling needs to be more aggressive and target our NFL-esque receivers more.
I like seeing a 'bend but don't break' defense. Conserving energy and not worrying if the opposing team consistently drives out of their side of the field. But then once past the 50 and with a shorter field, ramp up the pressure and force the opposition to only try for FGs. Iowa got 260 yards in the air today, but those yards went nowhere ultimately.
I honestly think that's what is needed against the remaining tough teams on the schedule. OSU is going to drive the ball no matter what. However, as long as we tighten up once they get to our side of the field and prevent the TDs and only give them FGs at best, then we have a shot.
Take out his first year (an unrealistic expectation anyway since we were rebuilding), and we were in playoff contention 2/3 years until we ran into OSU.
We have a 10 win baseline barring some QB disaster like in 2017 (where we still ended up with 8 wins and very competitive losses).
We lost to a very well-coached, solid Wisconsin team on the road. Not the worst thing in the world.
All the big games are still up ahead, the three most important at home as well.
I get that we're all upset by this game turned out, but maybe we should reassess after this season is over.
Let's see how the team fares at the end of the season. If Harbaugh loses to ND, MSU, and OSU at home + PSU on the road, then okay, probably have to look to someone else.
If he loses to ND, MSU, and PSU, but defeats OSU, then he deserves one more season with the new offense fully implemented by then.
If he beats MSU and/or ND or PSU, but loses to OSU again, then he maybe deserves one more season but if he loses to OSU again, then he's gone. If we're a 9 or 10 win team not competing for championships, then we should at least be beating OSU.
I agree there are "ifs", but I don't think it's enough to reach a breaking point yet.
This isn't like Rich Rod, who was too slow to develop the program, or Hoke, where it was a downward trend.
2 out of the 4 Harbaugh years we were legitimate Playoff contenders until we suffered demoralizing away losses to OSU. The other 2 years were his first year, which you can't even count, and the third year, which was just weird because of the QB carousel.
I am a believer that that all of those wrongs that happened will be made up over time, where we'll get the breaks finally.
Right now we have a steady 10 win program (even 2017 with the QB madness we got 8 wins and looked competitive in most of the losses), getting top 10-15 recruiting classes, and just need that elusive win over OSU that I think will instill the confidence and belief in Harbaugh and co.
All this talk about culture and clean programs, but it's just the coaches and 18-23 year olds coming just short:
If MSU doesn't pull out the miracle of the century, we'd have been in the New Year's Six in Harbaugh's first year.
If the homer refs didn't suck and screw us over with the Spot, we'd have won the B10 and been in the College Football Playoff in Harbaugh's second year.
If Speight and later Peters didn't get injured, we'd have actually been more competitive against MSU, OSU, and Wisconsin and probably gone 10-2 in the regular season as opposed to 8-4 and been in another New Year's Six in Harbaugh's third year.
No complaints about year 4. Away loss to ND, who went to the playoff. The away loss to OSU in Urban's final home game was necessary for us to modernize our offense. If we weren't so agonizingly close to the Playoff and had a better bowl game than fucking Florida on the 29th, we'd have actually tried in that New Year's Six bowl too.
2/4 years we were contenders, and ran into Urban's OSU teams at Columbus. We are basically in the tier below the likes of Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, and Oklahoma.
Let's see how this season and next season turns out. I believe that the universe will find ways to make up for those mishaps in the first four years.
I think Harbaugh was unlucky that the two years where we were good (2016, 2018), we had to play OSU at Columbus against an all-time great college football coach (yes Urban sold his soul to the devil in exchange for winning).
I think if he can win against OSU at home first, that would be a big hurdle his program will have overcome, and can give confidence that his team can do it away like they almost did in 2016.
Honestly, this season isn't over yet whatsoever. ND, MSU, and OSU are all at home. Win those three games, and even if we lose at Penn State or Indiana, it will be a successful season.
In fact, Harbaugh has only had one "bad" year, and that was 2017 with the crazy QB injuries. 2015 was above expectations considering we weren't even ranked preseason. 2016 was terrible bad luck. 2018 the losses were to two top-5 opponents on the road.
Harbaugh also hasn't had much QB continuity either. Ruddock was one season. Speight was a season and a half before he got injured. Shea is just now in his second season under Harbaugh, and they're introducing a new offense. Maybe you could argue he should stop with the transfers and develop his true freshmen recruits from the get-go, but that's another debate.
Year 1: Fairly close loss in the first game away to a Utah team that would end up ranked end of season (whom we would have beat end of season). The obvious infamous blocked punt vs MSU that 9.9/10 would have been a win. And an angry OSU team that just lost to MSU at home and Urban let Zeke run wild while we had a key injury (I think it was Glasgow?). In an alternate universe, we win the MSU game and go to the New Year's Six and finish 11-2 as opposed to 10-3.
Year 2: Oh boy, missed opportunities. Speight gets injured at the Iowa trap game. Last second FG loss. The Spot vs OSU. And Florida State finally plays to their top 5 preseason ranking and win on a last second TD that was so close to being an INT. In an alternate universe, we would have either beat Iowa or OSU, won the title game, and likely lost to either Clemson or Alabama in the playoff with a 12-2 record as opposed to 10-3.
Year 3: Poor QB play all year. Honestly, if we had even a Shea-level QB, we win the MSU and OSU games for sure, and maybe the Wisconsin game. In an alternate universe, we'd have gone 10-2 and end up in another New Year's Six and either win/lose. But having underdeveloped QBs is on the coaches.
Year 4: Honestly both of our losses were away games to top 5 teams in the final AP poll. OSU gashing our defense sucked, but honestly I think watching them use their speed in space with their best athletes is probably what sparked us to reinvent our offense. I'm not going to talk about the bowl game because it was obvious we gave zero fucks about playing Florida again on December 29, while Florida clearly had everything to prove.
Year 5: Things are shaky with the offense shift. Losing at Camp Randall is justified. I'll hold out till the end of the season. We have ND, MSU, and OSU later half of the season at home. If we win those games, any blips early in the season are forgiven.
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Honestly we were sooo close. Especially in Year 1 and Year 2. There were two infamous plays away from being New Year's Six + B10 Championship/Playoff years. Year 4 I think we did as well as we could. Year 3 is on the coaches for not having good QB play. Year 5 is up in the air.
The narrative around Harbaugh would be so different if things went just a bit differently. The big, big thing is our inability to win on the road. We just choke in those games. I don't know, maybe we should hire some sports psychologists to help fix those key mental errors.
It took Dabo Sweeney about five or so years before he got the Clemson machine rolling, so I don't think we should give up on Harbaugh yet. I do wish he showed some more spirit though like he did in the first two years.
Camp Randall is a hard place to win. I didn't expect a win, considering Wisconsin is looking good this year and we're in the middle of an offensive philosophy change. That being said, 0-28 at halftime and mediocre QB play was disappointing. At least 14-35 doesn't look as bad as 0-42, which is what I thought might be the score during halftime.
All our goals are technically still on the table. Run the table, and beat Wisconsin in a rematch at the conference title game, and there we go. Chances of that happening though after today is pretty slim, but again, Camp Randall is a tough place to play. Hopefully the offense figures itself out by the time ND, MSU, and OSU roll around.
I'm not suggesting to keep Yaklich for several years if he underperforms either. Would you rather have Shaka or Cooley then?
I say slap the interim tag on Yaklich and give him a go for next year. Shaka and Cooley aren't going anywhere. We can always grab one of them next season if Yaklich doesn't pan out. And even if they are hired elsewhere in the meantime, it's not a big loss whatsoever.
I imagine these types of cover-ups have happened or are happening in a lot of places. It's a shame how a handful of people can utterly tarnish a major institution. Hopefully this hasn't occurred here, and won't ever in the future.
I think many look at OSU's insane record under Tressel + Urban and wonder "Why can't we do the same?" We're among the top 5 most valuable football programs, and have the brand name, infrastructure, and $$$ to hire top coaches. We've gotten top 10 recruiting classes several times since 2012.
10-3 season floors are nice, but it's understandable for a fan base to get frustrated over not being able to beat the arch rival and not making it to the B10 title game even once despite having all those resources.
Weather in Palo Alto: High 50s/low 60s. Weather in Ann Arbor: High 20s/mid 30s. That matters to some.
What's the point of justifying these losses? If Gardner wasn't hurt and Denard just broke a couple of tackles to make another run, we'd have won in 2012. If Gardner hadn't broken his foot and the 2 point conversion was executed better, we'd have won in 2013. If the refs weren't garbage and we stopped JT a couple inches back, the Spot would have been reversed. If our QB was just average, we'd have won in 2017. If our defense didn't have injuries (BTW OSU didn't have Bosa) and wasn't overconfident, we might have won this year. If, if, if, if. At the end of the day, it's another loss and no explanation is going to make it better.
It doesn't matter how. We need to just pull out a win. MSU with its significantly inferior talent beat Meyer-led OSU in a B10 title game and went into Columbus and won in must-win games for both schools. There's no excuse why we can't.
Clemson played inspired football with an outstanding game plan. They allowed the defense to not be afraid of giving up a bunch of yards, but focus on making the stops that mattered, and offered the defense breathing room and momentum thanks to the offense continuing to score and putting undue pressure on Alabama's offense. And Clemson's offense succeeded because it actually made use of its 5* QB and its best playmakers to make plays.
Blowouts happen in college football. These are still kids who are teenagers and in their early twenties.
The only thing though the OSU loss did is further reiterate that OSU's top priority every season is to beat Michigan (reiterated by Day when he was introduced as HC) and they practice the entire season for it. They don't care about the Purdues or Marylands. They have arguably the best recruiting classes after Alabama, and we get the full force of it each year. It also doesn't help when we have yet another pyrrhic win against Indiana, who seem to gift-wrap OSU the strategy for beating us (especially when they have better talent). Add to the fact that they've had all-time great coaches in Tressel and Meyer, the latter of whom knows how to game plan and shift his offense to what works best, and it's been a recipe of misery for us.
The 2017 season would have definitely been another 10-3 season if the QB, the most important role, position was more stable. And we'd have definitely been ranked then. I think it's safe to say we're a top 10-15 program, but if we don't have the auto-losses to OSU late in the season, we're in the top 10. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia are at the top, and then we're among the next group of teams that are consistently in contention.
Y'know, Harbaugh is right that the team made strides in 2018. Preseason, most of us expected we'd go something ~9-3 in the regular season and the AP Poll had us behind four B10 teams. Coming off an 8-5 season in 2017, I think the goal was just to get consistent QB play, have players develop, and try to win as many games as possible without any real expectations considering we had to travel to ND, MSU, and OSU, as well as play tough Wisconsin and Penn State teams at home.
I'm just spitballing here, but I feel that the close loss to ND in week one followed by the string of blowout wins might have left the coaching and players too sure of themselves and their play-style going into OSU. And once that blowout occurred and we were sent to play a perceived non-challenge in Florida again in the Peach on the 29th where some of the best players sat out, that set us ripe for another blowout.
But I think the blowouts in the last two games against elite opponents hopefully help Harbaugh and the players push the team in the right direction going into 2019. Offense has become too explosive in NCAAF and the NFL, and the team has to follow suit. And on the defensive side, even the vaunted Bears defense gave up 300+ total yards against the Eagles. Heck Clemson let Alabama run up and down the field, but made the stops that mattered. It's all about making critical stops on 3rd/4th downs and restricting TDs to FGs.
This game showed why the offense needs to become more explosive, and rely on its elite playmakers.
Clemson's offense kept scoring, forcing Alabama's offense to become more desperate, thereby relieving some pressure and helping the defense.
And Clemson's defense played so smartly. They didn't try to blitz every play and hold Bama to under 100 yards. In fact, they gave up 443 yards. Rather, they made the plays that mattered in preventing Bama from scoring or converting on 3rd or 4th down.
This is what we need to do to beat OSU.
It took Dabo 5-6 years before he got everything in place, viz. having the right coordinators and an effective system for offense and defense.
Harbaugh needs to be held accountable, but not fired. I'm hoping those 10-3 seasons these past four seasons can become 11-2s, 13-1s, 14-1s, etc.
We have the #4 overall player (and top QB recruit) in Patterson. Our WRs would be explosive too if the playcalling allowed them to flourish.
RichRod for sure should have gotten one or two more years. Three years is too short to completely revamp a system. All he needed was to hire a good DC.
We have Patterson, McCaffrey, Peters, and Milton, all of whom were ranked top ten among pro-style QB recruits. At least among QBs, we should not have to worry about depth.
Hmm, he inherited the 6th, 4th, 20th, and 37th ranked classes from 2012-2015, but agree the last two years of Hoke weren’t good in recruiting. However Harbaugh has gotten pretty good recruiting classes (8, 5, 22) entering into this fourth year. I definitely agree that he exceeded expectations in year 1, but with the NFL draft talent we had in his second year at least 11-2 should have happened. Year 3 was weird with the QB injuries. However, this year we should have at least been more competitive against OSU and for sure been able to beat Florida (at least not get blown out).
This next season is the defining one. Year 5. All of his recruits. Returning QB and WRs. The incoming recruits were another top 10 ranked class. ND, MSU (after a bye week), and OSU (with a new coach) are all at home.
Tbf, Rudock was a two-year starter and played all the games for Iowa prior to transferring here. Shea only played 3 and 7 games in his first two seasons at Ole Miss.
Eh, feels like we've been the same since Harbaugh arrived. We were 10-3 in years 1 and 2, probably would have gone 10-3 last year if the QB role wasn't so unstable, and went 10-3 this year. We beat the teams we're supposed, but struggle against anyone in the top 10. I guess having a floor of 10 games is pretty nice though. I hope Harbaugh will be like Dabo and the programs levels up from year 5 onward.
If our defense isn't fast enough to stop their offense in space, then the defense needs to be okay with OSU getting yards and moving up the field. The energy needs to be saved for the red zone and trying to clamp them down where there's less space. Turning 3 TDs into FGs would be huge.
Shea needs to improve on the accuracy and deep ball, but it would help any QB with their confidence and growth if they're allowed throughout the season to air the ball out more to quality WRs. Or even just dink-and-dunk to elite WRs who can get YAC.
"When you get in critical situations in the game, don't think of plays, think of players."
- Saban said in an interview from this week.
We need a modern offense that's flexible. The current vanilla old-school offense is fine against teams with lesser talent where we're favored since we can 'mask' our true offensive potential. When it comes to OSU (and other top teams) though, they're going to score no matter how well the defense plays, so the offense needs to keep up. Having the right game plan is essential, but this is where we need to rely on our best athletes/players. We have some NFL-esque guys on this offense, viz. the WR corps, the QB, and possibly RB with Charbonnet coming. I always see so how many complaints and excuses about how OSU has superior talent, well, why not let our best talent shine?
Against any top team, the defense can afford to bend, just not break. Like it’s okay if a team marches down the field, just save the energy to keep them to FGs, not TDs.
I will gladly take any 8-4 regular season with a win over OSU than a 10-2 without. Next year, the MSU game is right after the bye, then Indiana, then OSU. The Indiana game can go to the dumps for all I care. Put the second team in so nobody critical gets hurt.
The play calling is a major issue. We had one of the best WR cores in the country, yet it never felt like that was exploited. And yeah, Shea was efficient, but there were never games where his arm completely took over (plus there were a bunch of times this year he underthrew receivers).
Beating OSU needs to be the #1 priority. Spend some time each week for OSU. I don’t care if we have to tank the previous week’s game before if it means an extra week of preparation and rest. Indiana always feels like some Pyrrhic victory anyway.
Wonder if this man would say the same thing if it involved Saban...
Not like any of this, or all of these threads, are going to mean much. I'd be shocked if OSU did anything more than a non-conference game suspension or a fine. Too many people care about winning, morals be damned.
Who tf thought splattering maize dots would look good? At least the AJ Trainer looks decent.
I don't think many people understand how much skill, knowledge, experience, and effort it takes to be really good at any of the major esports, especially League. On top of that, having the teamwork, synergy, and ingenuity in-game to make the right decisions is far from easy.
Good job to the team. Hopefully they can make a title run.
You nailed it. What Nassar was doing is certainly not something that's taught currently and regardless, even if he wasn't a DO and/or knew OMM, that POS would have found some medical "technique" to one way or another justify what he was doing.
And yeah, vast majority of my generation of future DOs probably won't practice OMM, or at most only keep it to the MSK stuff (where it's actually quite useful and works wonder (especially when you're studying all the time)).
Except...her degree is the same in all but two letters. Most patients don't know nor care about the letters behind the doc's name. There are DOs and MDs working side by side at UM Hospital with equal practice rights.
As you should. Words can only mean so much. My hope is that MSU will rectify these wrongs, and ensure that something like this never occurs again. In fact, I hope every institution looks at what happened at Penn State or MSU or elsewhere and has the protocols in place and the right people in charge to ensure things don't get swept under the rug or escalate to this level.
I can't speak for those Spartans. From what I've seen first-hand, absolutely none of the med students blame the victims whatsoever (in fact students are actively working with administration to create change) and it seems the undergrads have also rallied behind the survivors. When you have as large of a community like a MSU or UM or OSU, there are going to be some idiots with terrible opinions. How I've been raised, and as someone who's going to become a physician, it's very important for me to not cast overaching judgments and/or place blanket opinions on an entire community without hearing individual perspectives.
On the flip side, someone might want to wear a Penn State shirt or a MSU shirt because they do have some pride in their school for giving them a solid education, and they might want to wear it because they want to show there are normal, good everyday people who live their lives in a way much more fitting of these institutions' values. I completely understand your point about tact, and I probably wouldn't have worn such an outfit a couple months back either. I just think that it's never so black-and-white.