BayWolves

January 10th, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^

I love the attitude, the confidence, hope it hope it rubs off on other players, and think at a minimum we're in the playoffs next year.  Yeah, national championship is coming if we stay healthy. We're in like Flynn. Our fans are way too down after years of substandard ball under RR and Hoke but this team takes abig leap next year. Gonna happen but gotta stay healthy.

Joined: 06/21/2011

MGoPoints: 11056

marmot

January 10th, 2018 at 10:20 AM ^

Your point is correct in theory, but in a way is also incorrect.  Two years ago I won an individual National Championship in a sport at a higher level than college.  I can assure you that you don't get to that level in one year from the depth that Michigan's football team is currently at, and that's just on an individual basis.  It may be more difficult for a team due to many more "parts" involved.

 

You don't simply set a goal as "National Championship."  I guess you could, but the chances of hitting that in one year are slim.  You set smaller goals that ramp you towards a National Championship.

 

There are other factors involved as well.  I watched the 2017 team in person many times and went to the Bowl game.  I didn't go to every home game, but most of them.  They don't currently have the mental strength/ability/toughness/makeup to win a National Championship.  You can see that when adversity hits them.  When the team is down with 7 minutes left against a truly crappy South carolina team and you think to yourself "this game is over - we won't score again because these guys can't win the tough games" - and you're right - that's not a team close to competing for a National Championship.  Michigan is mentally weak, and has been for a while.

 

In a way, those guys do have a lot of smaller victories to focus on first, precluding them from focusing on a National Championship.  If you haven't done it, you don't know.  I didn't know either. 

Joined: 09/08/2009

MGoPoints: 1109

PaulWall

January 10th, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^

not really. I play a lot of adult league hockey. session is like 25 games or so. our stated goal is win the championship. that means we have to win division, win playoff games, and then win championship. some people need to be motivated to win the next play or the next game, whatever. If your goal is to win a championship, you understand it includes winning the next game you play. I'm sure your goal was to win your championship, and I'm pretty sure you didn't need to be reminded to try your hardest at each segment along the way.

Joined: 12/19/2017

MGoPoints: 2652

marmot

January 10th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^

I completely disagree with you.  It was a daily slog for years.  Practice multiple times a day, weights, nutrition, etc.   Focusing on sleeping/recovery every single day and night.  Vitamin schedules, icing, compression.

 

This team will be hard pressed to win all of their games next year.  I'd say they should be reminded to try their hardest every day, let alone at every game.

Joined: 09/08/2009

MGoPoints: 1109

marmot

January 10th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^

The punch is that that's a bad comparison.  2016 Georgia ended their year beating TCU in their bowl game, losing their rivalry game with GT by one point, but beat No. 8 Auburn and Kentucky.  They also beat South Carolina by two touchdowns. 

 

The same South Carolina we had held to under 100 yards of offense for almost three full quarters then melted down against.

 

There is a big difference between how they carried out and finished their 2016 season and Michigan finished theirs.  ...And that's not figuring in how much our QB's regressed this year vs. how Georgia's players fared.

Joined: 09/08/2009

MGoPoints: 1109

saveferris

January 10th, 2018 at 2:59 PM ^

It's actually a very good comparison, you're just cherry-picking numbers and spinning them to make the comparison look bad.

2016 Georgia ended their year beating TCU in their bowl game

So losing your bowl game automatically condemns your succeeding season to mediocrity? Got it. That's probably not supportable by data.

losing their rivalry game with GT by one point

You're comparing a loss to an unranked Georgia Tech by a single point as superior to our losing to 8th ranked Ohio State at home by 11? Try again.

but beat No. 8 Auburn and Kentucky

2016 Georgia finished 8-5 and beat one opponent that finished ranked in the Top 25 (Auburn ranked 25th). 2017 Michigan finished 8-5 with no wins against opponents that finished Top 25. Truly a major discriminator (and I don't even know why the fuck we're talking about a win over Kentucky).

They also beat South Carolina by two touchdowns. The same South Carolina we had held to under 100 yards of offense for almost three full quarters then melted down against.

Except it's not the SAME South Carolina. 2016 South Carolina finished 6-7. 2017 South Carolina, 9-4. I think it's safe to say that we faced off against the better South Carolina.

There is a big difference between how they carried out and finished their 2016 season and Michigan finished theirs.

True, Georgia did go 4-1 in their final 5 games in 2016, against competition with a combined record of 36-29 (and that's including their game against Louisiana-Lafayette, which shouldn't count). Michigan went 2-3 against competition with a combined record of 43-22. Of course, looking at Georgia's 2016 schedule, the soft part of their season was the end. From end of September through October when they played Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Florida, they went 1-4.

And that's not figuring in how much our QB's regressed this year vs. how Georgia's players fared.

How did our QBs "regress"? Speight was knocked out in Game 5. O'Korn proved to be pretty mediocre overall forcing us to press Peters into service probably ahead of schedule. Compared to Jake Fromm, who was pressed into service in the first game of 2017 when Eason went down and wound up being pretty good.

Allow me to offer some additional counterpoints:

  • In 4 of their 5 losses, Michigan was competitive, in a position to win each of them in the 4th quarter (or until Peters went down with a concussion against Wisconsin)
  • In our 8 wins against lesser competition, Michigan won by a comfortable margin in 6 of them.
  • Michigan returns most of it's starters on a top-ranked defense.
  • Michigan returns it's best offesive play-maker
  • Michigan has Shea Patterson to shore up the QB corps

Points against us:

  • Offensive line performance
  • Brutal road schedule
  • Brutal schedule overall

Georgia's improvement from 2016 to 2017 obviously doesn't predict anything for Michigan going into 2018, but your argument for why we should derive no optimism from this scenario is incredibly flawed.

Joined: 07/02/2009

MGoPoints: 24841

butuka21

January 10th, 2018 at 8:13 AM ^

I am glad he is showing confidence but can they actually walk the walk this year. They also need shea to be eligible and live up to all the hype if they want any shot. The two teams I saw play in the championship game were above and beyond where Michigan is currently at.

Joined: 11/22/2016

MGoPoints: 2889