S&P+ Five Factors Matchup: UM vs. MSU

Submitted by Ecky Pting on

Update Note: After pondering the comparative numbers, I've tweaked the formulas so that ratios are scaled in proportion to the National Average, such that if team A is matched against an exactly average team B, the resulting metric for the team A offense vs team B defense is the same as that of team A offense by itself. If team B is worse than average, team A metrics will look better. Conversely, if team B is better than average, team A metrics will look worse.

The impact of the change results in M now having a slight Rushing IsoPPP advantage over MSU instead of being a tie.

Here's the next installation of Bill Connelly's Five Factors metrics matchup between UM & MSU. It's a bit busy, but what you see are columns of raw metrics for both offenses and defenses. The Category of the given metric is given in the column at the left. To the right of the team offense and defense metrics are the National Averages for that category.  The last two columns are where the rubber meets the road...

The "M Offense vs. MSU Defense" column either averages (if inversely proportional) or takes the ratio (if not inversely related) between those two metrics to gauge the performance of the UM offense against the MSU defense. Likewise, the "MSU Offense vs. M Defense" averages or differences the other two metrics to gauge the performance of the Michigan State Offense. From there, the column with the greater aggregate number has the competitive advantage...EXCEPT, in the three categories with asterisks: "Stuff Rate", "SD Sack Rate" and "PD Sack Rate", which are contra-metrics that gauge the offense's ability to avoid the given categorical description.

Anyway, the numbers showing the advantage are in bold, and as such it appears the matchups tilt in M's favor in four of the Five Factors, including Turnovers. Breaking it down further, UM has the advantage in all but three two sub-categories, as follows:

  1. Rushing IsoPPP (rushing explosiveness, measured as pts. scored per successful rushing plays). Neither team has an advantage here, as the result is draw. Also, since this metric considers successful plays only, it can be a bit deceiving. The net Rushing Success Rate for the MSU offense is about 30% lower than UM (this is about the same as what LOLRutgerz was by comparison). 
  2. Passing IsoPPP (passing down explosiveness, measured as pts. scored per successful passing play). Same idea here as with 1. and 2. Look at the Passing Success Rate: M is 50% better than MSU.
  3. SD IsoPPP (standard down explosiveness, measured as pts. per successful standard down). The same as against Colorado, PSU & Wisconsin, RU... Again, keep in mind that IsoPPP consider successful plays only, of which there are not a great number against the stout UM defense. Again, the success rate for UM is about 50% greater than MSU.
FIVE FACTORS
(less T/O Luck)		 M Off M Def MSU Off MSU Def Nat'l
Avg.		 M Off v
MSU Def		 MSU Off
v M  Def
1) EXPLOSIVENESS:
IsoPPP 		 1.33 1.31 1.28 1.18 1.27 1.24 1.32
2) EFFICIENCY:
Success Rate 		 45.9% 18.5% 40.8% 43.0% 40.9% 48.3% 18.5%
3) FIELD POSITION:
Avg. FP 		 37.2 26.7 28.7 30.2 29.70 37.83 25.80
4) FINISHING DRIVES
Pts./Trip in 40 		 5.78 2.69 4.38 4.95 4.67 6.13 2.52
5) T/O MARGIN:
T/O Luck (PPG)		   2.49   -2.07   4.56 -4.56
RUSHING              
Rushing S&P+ 118.8 231.7 102.4 96.9 100.0 122.6 44.2
Rushing Success Rate  46.7% 17.6% 40.4% 41.7% 42.4% 45.9% 16.8%
Rushing IsoPPP  1.15 1.18 1.01 1.04 1.08 1.11 1.10
Adj. Line Yards 107.5 188.7 97.4 106.5 100.0 100.9 51.6
Opportunity Rate  41.3% 28.3% 40.0% 34.7% 39.7% 36.1% 28.5%
Power Success Rate  80.6% 60.0% 61.1% 70.4% 68.0% 83.4% 53.9%
Stuff Rate* 16.8% 27.8% 17.7% 21.4% 18.7% 19.2% 26.3%
PASSING              
Passing S&P+ 128.8 226.3 111.2 87.4 100.0 147.4 49.1
Passing Success Rate  45.0% 19.3% 41.2% 44.7% 40.9% 49.2% 19.4%
Passing IsoPPP  1.56 1.41 1.61 1.33 1.48 1.40 1.53
Adj. Sack Rate  153.9 189.0 97.4 47.2 100.0 326.1 51.5
STANDARD DOWNS              
SD S&P+ 121.1 191.9 113.0 94.6 100.0 128.0 58.9
SD Success Rate  50.9% 22.9% 47.6% 46.8% 47.0% 50.7% 23.2%
SD IsoPPP  1.18 1.29 1.12 1.05 1.12 1.11 1.29
SD Line Yds/Carry  3.37 1.48 2.97 2.62 2.98 2.96 1.48
SD Sack Rate* 3.4% 11.1% 1.2% 2.7% 5.1% 1.8% 2.6%
PASSING DOWNS              
PD S&P+ 121.4 276.8 93.3 89.2 100.0 136.1 33.7
PD Success Rate  32.9% 13.2% 28.2% 35.3% 30.3% 38.3% 12.3%
PD IsoPPP  1.97 1.34 1.81 1.54 1.74 1.74 1.39
PD Line Yds/Carry  2.79 1.62 2.5 2.67 3.40 2.19 1.19
PD Sack Rate* 7.8% 15.6% 10.1% 4.1% 8.0% 4.0% 19.7%

The IsoPPP advantages of Sparty in standard downs and passing plays will mean UM must be on the lookout defensively in order to contain explosive plays, particularly on Standard Downs. This is not necessarily a weakness so much as a condition of the UM Defense under Don Brown's aggressive schemes. It doesn't happen often - it just seems that UM's secondary will need to continue to be on its toes in blitz situations. Judging from the PFF numbers I've seen regarding QB ratings vs. Stribling and Lewis, however, QB's would do better by just throwing the ball out of bounds than anywhere near the U-M CB's.

In general, however, I would say this matchup looks as one might expect rolling into Piscataway East Lansing. Personally, I would love to see a complete annihilation of the Scarlet Knights Spartans, for reasons I will leave to you, dear reader, in the comments below...

MGoBoard
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S%26P+; Bill Connelly; Football Outsiders; Advanced Stats; Matchup; MSU

3xWlvrn

October 26th, 2016 at 12:15 AM ^

Agree with your sentiment regarding Harbaugh's competitiveness. If we do run up the score to that extent, my hope is that it happens with our bench playing the second half. First, more demoralizing. Second, lowers probability of impactful injuries. Third, illustrates just how far the Spartans have fallen since getting exposed in the CFP by Alabama. Fourth, solidifies the message that all the best players in Michigan go to Michigan; take this away from MSU, and their banishment to irrelevance will be completed.

Joined: 10/25/2016

MGoPoints: 65

Stay.Classy.An…

October 25th, 2016 at 1:09 PM ^

of comparing the Spartans to the Scarlet Knights....you may upset the old folks who don't talk trash until the game is in hand, for fear of shifting the actual playing of the game into something their words and thoughts control.

Joined: 11/27/2012

MGoPoints: 19972

mGrowOld

October 25th, 2016 at 1:14 PM ^

Whose post got downvoted by both young and old alike.

And for the record it's not fear that motivates the withholding of trash talking until the game is in hand its fucking intellegence.  When your record is the following over the past 8 years only idiots would be tub-thumping their chest and telling the world how wonderful they are before the game is even played.

101 2008 Ann Arbor Michigan State 35–21
102 2009 East Lansing Michigan State 26–20OT
103 2010 Ann Arbor Michigan State 34–17
104 2011 East Lansing Michigan State 28–14
105 2012 Ann Arbor Michigan 12–10
106 2013 East Lansing  Michigan State 29–6
107 2014 East Lansing  Michigan State 35–11
108 2015 Ann Arbor  Michigan State 27–23

 

Joined: 10/04/2010

MGoPoints: 212530

Stay.Classy.An…

October 25th, 2016 at 1:30 PM ^

my spelling is fine and I can also see that MSU has won 7/8. So it looks like I have two strengths! An intelligent person can see when their team has a decided schematic advantage that some pre-game chest thumping is more than okay. If our team had the same record as MSU and I was chest thumping, that my friend, would be unintelligent.

Joined: 11/27/2012

MGoPoints: 19972

uncleFred

October 25th, 2016 at 3:15 PM ^

These two programs have been playing each other a "bit" longer than eight years. I am old enough to remember watching these teams play in the 1960s. The last time when MSU was for a comparatively brief period the state's dominant football program. Then with Bo's arrival things returned to their historical norms and MSU returned to speed bump status except for the occasional win.  

At this point Michigan is appropriately favored and has a high probability to win this Saturday. Of course it's football and anything can happen, especially if Michigan has bad luck with regard to injuries. Despite that, the possibility of a loss is not the primary reason to avoid pre-game trash talk. If Michigan wins, even by 50+ points, I won't be talking trash to MSU folks. I'll be ignoring them, because that is by far the most difficult response for them to handle. I'll also smile because their run, which was clearly coming to an end after last season's game, will be visibly over. Their self inflicted mutual gutting, will provide far more entertainment than any trash in which I might indulge. It is not coincidence that over the entire history of play between these two programs, Michigan has enjoyed an overwhelming dominance. Compared to MSU, Michigan enjoys a number of structural advantages which make it very difficult for MSU to consistently compete over the long term. Historically MSU's runs of wins occur when Michigan's program loses its way. Inevitably Michigan addresses the issues with its football program and reasserts itself, despite MSUs best efforts to hold its position. I was expecting this to take a bit longer, but MSU has been kind enough to collapse its program in Harbaugh's second year. Once Harbaugh gets his foot on MSU's neck, he won't be removing it anytime soon, and MSU's "rival" status will fade away to once more exist only in the minds of their fan base. At this season's start I thought that Saturday's game would be a close tough game that, given MSU's home field advantage, Michigan would have to play exceptionally well to win. At this point that shoe is on the other foot, and MSU will have to play beyond themselves to get a win in their home stadium. The odds favor Michigan, but that simple fact means that MSU dominance is over. They are back to their traditional role of spoilers.

Joined: 10/14/2011

MGoPoints: 2399

nappa18

October 25th, 2016 at 3:26 PM ^

I'm with you MGrowOld. And I'm older then you. Yup. Even with your typos, you are right. Maybe too many of your young dissenters don't have a firm grasp on sports history. Plenty of time to talk after the game. Still a game played by young, very young adults. Sometimes, anything can happen and it does. Stay calm, at least until 3:30 pm Saturday.

Joined: 07/08/2011

MGoPoints: 2762

Ecky Pting

October 25th, 2016 at 5:44 PM ^

Suit yourself, but as a U-M alum whose older brother attended MSU, I feel especially entitled to talk trash in regard to "Moo U" at the time and place of my choosing, and yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: because I shall hold the term Little Brother on the tip of my tongue, and shall sling the term about with reckless abandon.

Joined: 09/06/2013

MGoPoints: 4655

I Love Lamp

October 25th, 2016 at 8:35 PM ^

Or fancy stats, or karma. I'm going by the eye test, and I've watched every game by both teams, and frankly, this shouldn't be close. It may and it won't totally floor me, but it would surprise me a little if it was. I'm surely not wanting to be overconfident, but if my feelings affected this kind of stuff, we'd be Alabama instead of crawling out of the shit sandwich served by the previous coaching staffs.

Joined: 07/15/2014

MGoPoints: 8306