Rooting Interests Updated
So you're telling me there's a chance!!!!
Basically we now have the same record as MSU, PSU, and OSU. We are currently tied with PSU for third in the BIG Ten East, with PSU having a h2h tiebreaker on us. We need the following to happen to give us a legitimate shot:
1) Michigan Wins Out!!!! (One can dream)
2) OSU beats Sparty and Illinois (very likely)
3) One of Rutgers, Nebraska, or Maryland shocks the world and shocks PSU. (Highly unlikely but about as unlikely as OSU getting smoked by an Iowa team that puts up 55 points)
EDIT: 4) MSU loses again to one of Rutgers and Maryland (not going to happen)
We need 1-4 to happen and we would win the big ten east. Basically next weeks OSU/MSU game is for all the East marbles barring a miracle.
November 5th, 2017 at 9:25 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:27 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:29 AM ^
Michigan would be 1-2
MSU and OSU would be 2-1
We are 3rd place
November 5th, 2017 at 9:38 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:43 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:51 AM ^
The tiebreaker is poorly worded.
1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
But I think you are right that that means compared within each other and not overall record in whcih case Michigan would lose any tiebreaking scenario. So we are all MD fans after next week as they still have both psu and msu left.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
Basically the msu - osu game will decide the east champ. Winning out and beating osu is our championship. I was wrong about helping sparty as they would have the head to head loss to osu. They control their destiny's with next weeks game.
November 5th, 2017 at 1:02 PM ^
OSU loses to State. Bet the house. Bet the kids.
November 5th, 2017 at 1:29 PM ^
I'm pretty sure nearly everyone said that there is no way that OSU loses (by 30+ points) to Iowa before yesterday also.
November 5th, 2017 at 3:33 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:30 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 11:07 AM ^
Nope, i thought the same thing, but the first tiebreaker is head-to-head (which would be 1-1 in this scenario for everyone). Second is intra-division record, which we would lose as we'd be 4-2 in the division vs. 5-1 for the other two, as their second losses would be Iowa and Northwestern, which are out of division.
November 5th, 2017 at 1:06 PM ^
In a 3-way (or more) tie, overall record is the first tiebreaker. As long as PSU isn’t part of that tiebreaker, we win in a 3-way tie with 2-losses in conference OSU and MSU because we have no OOC loss.
That’s step 1 of the 3+-way tiebreaker:
“(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 8 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If three or more teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams.
1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.”
November 5th, 2017 at 1:08 PM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 5:44 PM ^
I agree the wording is confusing. It would be better to say "the record of the three teams against each other will be compared." But nonetheless that is what it means. It makes sense that that is the 1st tiebreaker since it is the analog to head-to-head for a >2-way tie.
November 5th, 2017 at 9:59 AM ^
I feel like I'm not reading the tiebreakers wrong.
It looks to me like it says if there is a tie we go to the result of the head to head winner, which means MSU>UM, MSU>PSU, PSU>UM, OSU>MSU, OSU>PSU, UM>OSU. There is no clear head to head winner with a four way tie using that criteria.
So tiebreaker number one says specifically overall record should be compared.
Michigan would be 10-2, OSU would be 9-3, Michigan State would be 9-3, Penn State would be 9-3. Tiebreaker done without going to the next step looking at division record, which would be unfavorable to Michigan.
Right? I know it's still highly unlikely but it would be a real nice feeling to control our destiny if Ohio State beats Michigan State next week.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:06 AM ^
Yes there is.
MSU: 2-1
UM: 1-2
OSU: 2-1
PSU: 1-2
UM and PSU are eliminated, MSU/OSU start the tiebreaker process over again.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:23 AM ^
Yep. Essentially its win out and hope to permanently keep OSU out of the playoff picture and only send them to the Big Ten title game. No chance at a title because the offense couldn't score 15 fucking points against Sparty at home.
November 6th, 2017 at 12:49 AM ^
Not that that is dragging down the overall probability much, but that is something that doesn't have to happen that the OP threw in there for some reason.
November 5th, 2017 at 9:26 AM ^
We need Sparty to lose twice. One of their losses was out of conference (ND).
November 5th, 2017 at 9:31 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:44 AM ^
Think of it in terms of record against the other three teams:
MSU: 2-1 (Loss to OSU)
OSU: 2-1 (Loss to Michigan and PSU)
Michigan: 1-2 (Loss to MSU and PSU)
PSU: 1-2 (Loss to MSU and OSU)
Michigan and PSU are then eliminated from the conversation and it is between MSU/OSU
Edit: Actually, OSU would have three B1G losses in this scenario, so they would be eliminated first - MSU would go to Indy.
November 5th, 2017 at 9:54 AM ^
Nope osu would only have two losses, michigan and iowa, they beat psu. In a 4 way tie osu wins the division because psu and michigan are eliminated for going 1-2 against the tied competition and then osu would have h2h over msu and win the division.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:19 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 11:09 AM ^
If msu losses two more games and we win out, who wins it then. I have a feeling psu wins it as osu would be out with the three losses and we lose head to head with psu. I think we need psu to lose again and sparty to lose two more games and we have to win out. Looks like wait till next year, but if we win out or just beat osu I will feel pretty good with next year looking good. I actually think we will be the favorites next year.
November 5th, 2017 at 9:38 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
Should be overall record first to avoid this horseshit. How a team with a worse record gets into the championship game is just plain asinine.
November 5th, 2017 at 9:26 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
Only if they beat osu in columbus.
November 5th, 2017 at 11:33 AM ^
If osu beats sparty, even with a loss to us they win the east. If sparty wins out it is theirs and they deserve it. Osu is in the drivers seat and if they somehow don't win the east i see columbus burning to the ground. I could deal with sparty winning the east, but we have to beat osu though to make it all good. If msu beats osu and then losses to either rutgers or maryland, psu wins it and something is really wrong.
I really hope we beat osu, but I think they limp into winning the east but will have their hands full with a team who allready beat Iowa and psu.
As much as I don't like the puke, Dantonio is a great coach but I still like Michigan's future. One thing is for sure the big ten east is a fun division.
If were not going to win it who do you want between msu, psu or osu?. It would be easy for me a few years back before the stuff came out.
I choose Iowa. LOL.
November 5th, 2017 at 9:27 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:27 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:44 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:28 AM ^
Honestly, just beat OSU and let the rest of the chips fall where they may.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:21 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:28 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:39 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 11:55 AM ^
Not me. I don't want MSU in another title game. For those of us who live and work in Michigan, it will never be right again until we are clearly ahead of them and one can not make that argument while they are making title games and beating us.
November 5th, 2017 at 9:30 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:42 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 10:09 AM ^
The next level is also bad for us because both of our losses are in division, while MSU and OSU have losses to a team from the West.
November 5th, 2017 at 10:38 AM ^
Yep if Michigan wins out a team with a worse record will go to the championship game. That is just plain fuckin stupid. MSU will lose next week and if we win out we give them the championship. If we lose to osu there in.
We win out and a team with one more loss wins the east. Sorry but that is just wrong on so many levels. We either give it to osu or msu. I guess best case is win out and hope Wisconsin beats msu. How about that with the schedule Wisconsin played.
Bottom line losing to msu should not have happenned. I don't really know we can win out, but if msu wins in columbus they deserve the championship. Of course if you can't beat Northwestern on the road I am taking osu in that one.
Missed opportunities but if we win out I will be quite happy especially if we get a bowl win and some big recruiting wins. Sounds good huh!!!.
In reality the team who deserves the big ten championship is Iowa. Wisconsin played a bitch schedule. I hope we crush them.
November 5th, 2017 at 11:28 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^
Disagree. That would place more importance on scheduling and winning easy games instead of scheduling tough. It's right the way it is. We just should have beat MSU and this wouldn't be an issue.
November 5th, 2017 at 9:31 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:43 AM ^
This year became a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy.
November 5th, 2017 at 9:35 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:36 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:44 AM ^
November 5th, 2017 at 9:46 AM ^
It doesn't work for us because we have two losses in our division, I think.