NCAA Hockey Seeding Update

Submitted by stephenrjking on

Michigan's done in the B1G tournament (which has been really good this year, for the first time in the hockey history of the conference). Crucially, so are a fair number of other teams: The seeding picture is rounding into shape.

Per collegehockeynews.com's Pairwise Probability Matrix, Michigan still has an 18% chance of sliding into the 8th spot, which would be the last 2 seed. That's not likely, though. MIchigan has an impressive 52% chance to finish at 9th and a 26% chance to stay at where they are at 10th. Why are they likely to move up? Providence and Northeastern, which are both narrowly ahead of Michigan, play each other next weekend in the Hockey East semis, and one of them has to lose. 

There is almost no (3%, precisely) chance that they slide further. If Clarkson (currently 11th) passes them that will be offset by either Providence or Northeastern, and the next two teams behind them are Penn State and Minnesota, over which MIchigan holds unassailable PWR comparison leads due to head-to-head record.

The upshot? Michigan has a small chance at a 2 seed, but is likely going to be a high 3 seed in the tournament. The committee has the option to switch around 2-3 pairings for regional and conference issues, but they prefer not to if it's avoidable. It looks like the only real factors in these seedings will be avoiding a Providence-Northeastern conference rematch and the requirement to place Penn State in Allentown. 

So, by my reckoning, Michigan is probably looking at UMD or the winner of Northeastern-Providence, with small chances for other matchups. If they do indeed dodge Denver, that is good. By straight seeding, Michigan at 9 playing UMD at 8 would be bracketed with St. Cloud State and whomever wins the Atlantic conference. That's pretty brutal; it wouldn't hurt Michigan to stay at 10, draw the Northeastern-Providence winner, and get bracketed with Cornell or Notre Dame. 

Regarding other stuff, OSU seems like a fair bet as the lowest #1 seed to get placed in Sioux Falls and play North Dakota. Penn State is required to go to Allentown and might bring Minnesota with them. That PSU match might be a game against Minnesota State (congratulations, Mankato! Every time you have a good season, the horrible NCAA tournament format means you get the shaft!) and Notre Dame (if MInnesota is not a 4 seed there) or Cornell as the 1.

tl;dr Michigan is probably a high 3 seed. Likely to play UMD, or perhaps the Providence-Northeastern winner. 

stephenrjking

March 11th, 2018 at 1:36 AM ^

They started off somewhat shaky, as one would expect with a team that loses a lot of core players, but they have rounded into form and they are really good right now. I really don't want to play them.

A regional with Providence or Northeastern and either Cornell or Notre Dame is tough, but plausible--we could win those games. A region with UMD and Saint Cloud State is a suicide drill.

 

stephenrjking

March 11th, 2018 at 1:53 AM ^

That's easy. UMD doing well in a vacuum is nice and all. It's where I live.

I'll douse myself in gasoline and light myself on fire before I cheer against Michigan. It's who I am.

Michigan hockey is a pretty big deal to me even relative to other sports. Before leaving Michigan, many of my biggest road trips were hockey trips, and I've seen the team play in person in 7 states. Since I moved to Duluth I believe I've seen the team play in person nearly as much as UMD, despite considerably differences in convenience and cost. The only thing I want to see more in sports than hockey winning a national title is football doing the same.

UMD is nice and I hold no grudge against them. Except when they play Michigan.

 

J.

March 11th, 2018 at 3:33 AM ^

I never really doubted you. :-)  I just remmeber you mentioning the UM/UMD matchup a couple of weeks ago as being a personal nightmare scenario.

I have a friend who grew up in the Seattle area and adopted both the Seahawks and the 49ers, when they were in different conferences.  A few years ago, they played in the NFC Championship Game, so somebody asked him who he was rooting for.  His respone was, "It's like a bye," which, needless to say, satisfied nobody. ;-)  (We still tease him for that).  I can definitely appreciate harboring no ill will toward the local team so long as they're not playing Michigan.

ThatTCGuy

March 11th, 2018 at 7:59 AM ^

That said, its probably a good sign that we outplayed OSU yesterday despite all those issues. There's an argument to be made that if Romeo doesn't play out of his mind, we blow OSU out.

ThatTCGuy

March 11th, 2018 at 7:47 AM ^

If we play as sloppily as we did yesterday, we're sadly probably a one-and-done in the tournament no matter who we play. It might be a blessing in disguise that we got eliminated from the B1G Tournament when we did because it gives Mel more time to work on the PK and those DZTOs before the NCAAs start.

Michigan Arrogance

March 11th, 2018 at 7:59 AM ^

re: OSU, I think I saw somewhere that they had 4 drafted players and M has 7-8 (which is historically low for M). I wonder if they are taking underagers or is the coach pulling a Gadowski.

lhglrkwg

March 11th, 2018 at 9:42 AM ^

With all the shuffling the committee has to do to separate conference foes in the first round, keep hosts at home, and try to make things geographically decent, I always feel like being any of the 2 and 3 seeds is almost interchangeable. Obviously there are better matchups available, but it always feels like there's the 1 seeds with their 4 seed sacrifices, and then there's the 2-3 gauntlet where every tournament team plays someone about as good for the right to play the 1 seed

stephenrjking

March 11th, 2018 at 3:21 PM ^

There's a chance. Rules prevent conference teams from playing in the first round, but not the second round. However, the committee does consider "S-curve" matchups, and Michigan, being either the 8-9 or the 7-10 game by absolute ranking will probably get matched with a higher #1 seed.

My guess is that OSU, as the last #1, gets stuck with the least desirable #4 seed. That is currently North Dakota, which would host in Sioux Falls, and would thus be one of the least desirable #4 seeds of all time. Adding to this, the highest #4 seed by ranking right now is Minnesota, whom OSU cannot play.

Alton

March 12th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^

Bridgeport Regional
#4 Ohio State v Boston College
Denver v Providence
 
Worcester Regional
#2 Cornell v Minnesota
Northeastern v Clarkson
 
Allentown Regional
#3 Notre Dame v Northern Michigan
Minnesota State v Penn State
 
Sioux Falls Regional
#1 St Cloud State v Mercyhurst
Minnesota-Duluth v Michigan

 

I think the best thing for Michigan would be to drop to #10, in order to stay out of the Sioux Falls situation.