5-7 in 2018?
I was talking with a friend I trust on things related to Michigan football and he laid out what I thought was a fairly convincing scenario in which we go 5-7 this year, with losses to ND, Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, MSU, Penn State, and OSU.
The crux of his argument boils down to the OL failing to develop significantly (they need to be a lot better), Shea is not ruled eligible and Peters continues his performance from the South Carolina game. An opening loss to Notre Dame makes the mgocommunity restless and there are calls for McCaffrey, who is pushed into the starting job and doesn't show to be demonstrably better than Peters. Our inability to pass protect puts all of our QBs in a bad spot, and we still can't run the ball when we need to. Wide receivers continue to drop key passes on third downs, failing to develop one iota under Pep/McElwain. We defense our way to 5 wins but against tougher teams we stumble, and we go 0-3 against the rivals.
I wanted to throw this up to the mgoboard and see what you all think, if this is just an outlier position or if it sounds realistic or plausible.
February 16th, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
Why you do this?
February 16th, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^
I'm depressed about the state of things.
February 16th, 2018 at 3:40 PM ^
And this helps?
February 16th, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
what if no one on our team gets better. In fact, what if they get worse? And every other team we play gets way better. 0-12 is calling.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
Sure, 5-7 is possible. It is also possible (equally?) that Patterson is eligible and lives up to the hype, the OL takes a step forward and is average (if not better), the young players from last year improve, and we play well enough to go 11 wins or better.
February 16th, 2018 at 5:03 PM ^
More probable than going 15-0, but more likely 9-3 or 8-4
February 17th, 2018 at 2:56 PM ^
Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria!
February 16th, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
delusional
February 16th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
Definitely depressed.
The way we lost to South Carolina, the way we finished our recruiting class, and the fact that we just hired a shark humper have me in a fairly gloomy mood.
I was hoping people would actually offer insight on how things are going to be better, rather than just be like "No that's wrong."
February 16th, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
Stop, this is almost as bad as your OP, just stop!
February 16th, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^
If we can find some guys to play tackle (whoever it is), the most we will lose this year is 2 games.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
I'm gonna just have to say it. No - that's wrong.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^
I find it interesting that the only upvote you have is from a Sir Jack II. Heck of a coincidence. Any relation?
February 16th, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^
The easiest defense is that every piece of information you cited (bad OL, bad QB, etc) happened in 17 and we still went 8-4. Of those position groups there is no reason to think they will go backwards since they are all older and more experienced in 18. Those groups were certainly shitty at times, but should be better after another year so I guess it boils down to the fact that you were convinced that players will get worse as they get more experience and coaching from this staff. That doesn't seem plausible to me. Don't forget we'll probably have a top 5 defense in 18.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
He's actually painting an optimistic picture since he didn't say anything about injuries.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
That was no convincing scenario, it was pretty much a worst case scenario based on an accumulation of unlikely developments. If you want to go down that path, everything is always going to look terrible, inside sports and out.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
I went back and looked at the last 2 years of Hoke's recruiting and the first year of Hoke/Harbaugh. A potential reason last year was so bad offensively might be the lack of WRs and offensive lineman over that 3 year stretch. These classes ended up being completely empty (minus Cole, Kugler, and Perry). This forced Michigan to insert freshmen and sophomore WRs into action. The offensive line not developing certainly did not help matters once Speight went down for the year.
Look, last year was not fun and at times the offense was painful to watch, but that doesn't mean 2018 will be the same.
You asked what happens if Patterson is not eligible. Speight is still on campus. If Patterson is out then perhaps Speight is the answer (assuming he would stay). This offensive line is close to turning the corner. The interior should/could be very good. Yes, the have to come up with a LT. They also have roughly 6.5 months to solve for that. The WRs gained valuable experience last year and will continue to develop and gain strength along with fine tuning routes/situational awareness.
The defense is losing 1 very good player and 1 good college player. I feel very confident on that side of the ball. I do think the system needs a couple of tweaks as it seems like some teams have figured out how to use the aggressiveness against them a little bit with dump of passes to the RB. Again, if I can see it, I know Don Brown sees it and will fix it.
Don't be a Debbie Downer.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
You need a new friend.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^
Jeez, go get Sinatra's Only the Lonely, play it in a darkened motel room somewhere while drinking an entire bottle of Jack Daniels.
February 16th, 2018 at 5:13 PM ^
give it a rest.. we had a down 8-5 year after two 10 win seaons with zero JH upper classmen.
Do you remember the RRod and Hoke years? We were celebrating 6 fuckin wins and being bowl eligible
February 16th, 2018 at 3:57 PM ^
You don't know Jack
February 16th, 2018 at 8:47 PM ^
Yeah.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^
I'm not elated about how things are going either, but I think we have a better shot at going 12-0 than 5-7. There is some hope. If we can get the coaching sorted out and get Shae eligible, we bring back a lot of very good players.
February 16th, 2018 at 9:07 PM ^
I agree with you. While Do not have blind faith in the coaching staff, I think this year basically met expectations given injuries, depth and schedule and next year willl be better.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:38 PM ^
I genuinely dare you to convince me that Michigan loses to Maryland at home this year.
February 16th, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^
Actually state should probably be slightly above 5-7,maybe even 8-3.
February 16th, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^
Michigan goes 8-5 with a 2/3 string QB, all underclassmen receivers, and 10 new starters on D and the sky is falling. Calm down people.
February 16th, 2018 at 9:08 PM ^
Fan base doesn't suck, we are just tired of losing to MSU and OSU and looking fairly crappy. Then said "unsucky" fan base increases in frustration when we hire $8,000,000 man to save our program and his first 4 years don't look much different than Hoke.
I'm in no way saying Harbaugh is even in Hokes vicinity of ineptitude, but things are gonna be frustrating until things actually change. Results cure all woes. I hope Jimmy makes all of us look like morons for our grumbling and not prophets.
February 17th, 2018 at 1:43 AM ^
Harbaugh has not had 4 seasons yet. Chill
February 17th, 2018 at 1:37 PM ^
Your post is exactly why this fan base sucks. To many people simply have no idea what they are talking about, or refuse to take a step back and look at Jim's time here.
Either way, to think he has not done much better than hoke is laughable. He has two top ten wins, and 3 more top 25 wins. All of these were 10 win teams and 4 won at least their division. However, after a rebuilding year where they replaced 18 starters with largely first 2 year guys because Hoke left the roster a mess, and people act like Jim hasn't turned the program around.
8-5 is the floor for him, but was the ceiling for Hoke in a season like last year.
February 16th, 2018 at 6:30 PM ^
hobby!
February 16th, 2018 at 7:19 PM ^
step program. Admitting you are powerless is essential and so are many steps, but let’s just skip all the way to your being an advocate to help other fans cope with their UM-ism.
February 16th, 2018 at 8:17 PM ^
That's why alcohol was invented. Try some.
February 17th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
its February man, chill out, It'll be OK
February 16th, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
Some people on here are the worst. We might go 5-7. We might go 15-0. No one fucking knows right now. Your reliable friend doesn't know shit about the future. Football teams often have high variances of results. Just look at ND and MSU over the past 3 seasons. ND went 10-3, 4-8, 10-3. MSU went 12-2, 3-9, 10-3. Enough of this, "hey a buddy of mine (which is actually just me but I want to deflect any criticism toward my made up friend) thinks the future sucks... do any of you know the future?" posts.
February 16th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^
yeah lol
February 16th, 2018 at 3:45 PM ^
I guess I could see losses to five of those teams in isolation, but to lose to all five? Doubtful. But yeah, we're beating Maryland and Nebraska. Come on!
February 16th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^
.. I really needed a reason to drink this weekend.
February 16th, 2018 at 5:21 PM ^
You need a reason to drink on the weekend? Amateur.
February 16th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^
We are not going 5-7. We lose three games max.
February 16th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^
Trolls gotta trolls
February 16th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^
take a chill pill bro we haven't even gone into spring practice
February 16th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^
Does your boy live in Decatur too? Tell him I’ll see him in 5, and get better bring them hands.
No this is idiotic. I’ll cut my own foot off on Facebook live if we only win 5 games.
February 16th, 2018 at 3:44 PM ^
I've gotten along fine with only 1 foot for the past 49 years.
Now if you cut off your foot and feed it to a SHARK!....now we're talking!!!
February 16th, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^
I already have my toe knife, I’m prepared