Looking to 2016: What Michigan, MSU and OSU Lose

Submitted by Bambi on

Even though we have a great season going on right now with much to be accomplished, I can't help but look forward to next year at the same time. As great as this year is, next year could be that much better. The biggest hurdle for us next year is the fact that we have OSU and MSU on the road (thanks Delaney) so I decided to see how their teams will tentatively look next year.

First, I'll start with us though.

What Michigan Loses On Offense:

So we all know this pretty well, but next year we return a whopping 8 starters on offense, which is great news. Everyone but Jake Rudock, Joe Kerridge and Graham Glasgow will return which bodes well for Michigan. While losing Glasgow, our second best OL, will hurt Michigan should survive wither by plugging in Kugler at Center or moving Cole to Center and putting Newsome at LT.

The Rudock loss looks like it will hurt more now that he's played so well these past two weeks, but between O'Korn, Morris, Speight, Malzone, Gentry, Peters and any grad transfers, Michigan should be able to find at least one good option among the bunch.

The Kerridge loss hurts even more because his back up Sione Houma will graduate as well (thanks Hoke). Both these guys have had very nice senior years in an offense that features the full back relatively often, so losing two major contributors there is less than ideal. That being said, I don't think this should hamper Michigan too much. We have a few guys already on the roster that can fill this spot in Poggi, Shallman and Winovich, plus we bring in some guys like Kingston Davis who could contribute immediately. Harbaugh knows how to coach this utilize guys in this position well so I'm fairly confident someone will be able to fill in competently here next year.

For non-starters, Michigan will probably lose a couple noncontributing potential 5th years like Blake Bars. We also lose AJ Williams, who has been having a very nice senior year relative to what we expected. Once again this loss shouldn't be huge though with Butt, Hill, Bunting and potentially Nauta as well. Harbaugh and co can coach TE's up well, as shown by Williams’s jump this year, so there should be plenty to work with there.

The only threat to leave early for Michigan on offense is Jake Butt, but to this point I haven't heard a ton of rumblings about that and would be fairly surprised if he left. One more year under Harbaugh and a great senior year could push him firmly into the first round of the 2017 draft.

What Michigan Loses On Defense:

On defense Michigan loses a lot more, but still returns enough to be very excited about next year. Michigan returns 6/7 starters, depending on how you look at it.

On the DL, everyone but BUCKs Mario Ojemudia and Royce Jenkins-Stone will return. The staff has applied for a 5th year for Ojemudia but it doesn't seem likely that he'll get it. Even with these losses, Michigan's DL should be great next year. If one of Lawrence Marshall, Taco Charlton or Carlo Kemp can just be average here next year, this D-Line should be one of the best in the country.

At LB, Michigan loses all 3 (or 2 considering how often we play with 5 DBs) starters in Desmond Morgan, Joe Bolden and James Ross. This is one of the two big questions mark spots on the team next year. The only guy with any experience who returns next year is Ben Gedeon, who has looked good in his limited action so far. Once again, considering how often Michigan has used 5 DBs this year, if even just one of Mike McCray, Allen Gant, Noah Furbush, Jared Wangler, potentially Chase Winovich and whatever recruits we bring can emerge to be average, I think the LBs will be fine, especially playing behind that D-Line.

In the secondary we lose Jarrod Wilson. This is the biggest loss on defense IMO, as Wilson has played at an All-B1G level this year. Next year the nominal starters would be Dymonte Thomas and Delano Hill. While both have been very inconsistent at times this year, not a great trait in a safety, both have also played great football at times. If they can improve at a reasonable rate this offseason, I think Michigan will be fine at safety. If one or both don't pan out, then Michigan will probably try to plug in Tyree Kinnel or even Jabril Peppers back there.

It's also worth noting that we lose Blake O'Neil, who will most likely be replaced by Kenny Allen. That should be a net loss but Allen was brought in mainly as a punter and should be serviceable next year.

The only threat to leave early is Jourdan Lewis, who has said he plans to return, so as of now there should be no early departures although we know how things can change.

Now I'll move on to OSU and MSU. There will be much less analysis there as I know a lot less about their rosters, and more of just listing who is leaving.

What MSU Loses On Offense:

MSU has done a complete 180 this year, succeeding because of an incredible passing offense with a mediocre at best run game and defense. The good news for Michigan fans is that offense gets gutted next year.

The biggest lost is of course potential 1st rounder Connor Cook. He alone is the reason MSU only has 1 loss so far and no matter who replaces him MSU will feel a hard drop there.

At wideout, MSU loses 4 of their top 6 on the depth chart. Potential 1st rounder Aaron Burbridge, Macgarrett Kings Jr., DeAnthony Arnett and AJ Troup are all seniors who will be graduating next year. Their receiving is probably the best in the B1G this year, so losing 4 of the top 6 including their top 2 is a major loss for Sparty.

MSU doesn't lose any RBs but does lose starting FB Trevor Pendelton. They probably won't lose anyone at TE besides 3rd string contributor Paul Lang. Theoretically they could lose starting TE Josiah Price, who is currently junior projected to go on day 2 or 3 of the draft, but if we assume Butt doesn't leave, it's safe to assume he doesn’t.

At OL, they lose starting Center Jack Allen, and All-American, and starting OG Donovan Clark. It's also safe to assume that starting LT Jack Conklin, another potential 1st round pick, will leave for the draft. Starting RT Kodi Kieler is a potential day 2 or 3 pick but will probably stay at this point. Backup OL Brandon Clemons will graduate as well.

TLDR: MSU will lose at least 6 starters for sure next year. They will probably lose a 7th in Conklin, with potentially up to 9 in Price and Kieler, although those aren't very likely. They also will lose 4 of their top 6 wideouts, a backup OL, and a contributing TE.

What MSU Loses On Defense:

MSU's defense has struggled all year, with the only bright spot being their front 4. Next year, however, they will lose 3 of those 4 starters. Shilique Calhoun, Joel Heath, and Lawrence Thomas all graduate, along with backup DL Damon Knox.

In the back 7, MSU returns a lot more. Starting LB Darien Harris and starting CB Arjen Colquhoun both graduate and the rest of the back 7 returns, although with how their secondary has played this year that may not be a good thing. The biggest potential for MSU next year will be LB Ed Davis. Davis was a 5th year senior this year and preseason All-American who was injured in training camp for the year. If he gets a 6th year MSU could have a great LB corps next year to make up for their depleted D-Line. If not, this might be the worst MSU defense in almost a decade.

MSU also loses long snapper Taybor Pepper.

TLDR: MSU loses 5 starters next year, include most of their fantastic D-Line. Potentially a nominal 6th if Ed Davis doesn't get a 6th year.

What OSU Loses On Offense:

Predicting OSU's loses is the hardest part of all of this since they have so many guys who may leave early for the draft.

The biggest loss for OSU on offense will be on the OL, as 3 starters will graduate in OTs Taylor Decker and Chase Farris and Center Jacoby Boren. Starting TE Nick Vannett will graduate as well. JR OL Pat Elflein could potentially leave as well, but will probably stay for his SR year.

At QB, JT Barrett will be back but I expect Cardale Jones to leave, either to the NFL or to a transfer. He seems to be squarely behind Barrett at this point and will be a 5th year senior next year, so it makes sense for him to either go pro or somewhere else he will start.

At the skill positions, Braxton Miller is the only graduating senior. However, most people assume both Ezekiel Elliot and Michael Thomas will leave as they are projected 1st rounders. If they do OSU will have a lot to replace on offense, but if they don't it will be another great offense down in Columbus. Jalin Marshall and Dontre Wilson could both theoretically declare as well, although I expect that they stay in school.

TLDR: OSU will for sure lose 5 starters. It could be up to 7 with Elliot and Thomas, who are both most likely to go, and also probably lose Cardale Jones.

What OSU Loses On Defense:

Like MSU, OSU's strongest unit is by far their D-Line. And like MSU, that unit will be depleted next year. Starting DT's Adolphus Washington and Joel Hale, along with backup DT Tommy Schutt are all graduating after this season. Arguably the best DE in all of college football, Joey Bosa is a junior but almost a 100% lock to leave, and has been hinting at him leaving himself.

At LB, OSU for sure loses starting OLB Joshua Perry. Backup MLB Cam Williams will graduate as well. The other starting OLB Darron Lee is only a RS SO, but a projected first round pick and the #1 OLB according to some sites so many OSU fans expect him to leave this year.

In the secondary OSU graduates nobody, but both safeties are threats to leave for the draft. JR Von Bell is a guy who many think could be a late 1st round pick and the other safety Tyvis Powell is a guy many think will be a mid-round pick if he declared. Starting CB Eli Apple is also a top 5 CB prospect who some think may leave as well. If I had to guess, I'd say only Bell leaves of the three, but that remains to be seen.

TLDR: OSU graduates 3 starters, with Joey Bosa essentially being a 4th. Potentially up to 4 more starters may declare for the draft, with 2 being the more likely number. OSU could lose anywhere from 4-8 starters, most likely losing 6, along with a key backup DL and LB.

Summary

Michigan definitely loses the least out of any of these three teams. Only 3 starters on offense and 5 on defense with no major threats to leave outside of those players. Michigan also has the talent to replace most of these guys adequately, especially with the solid recruiting class we should bring in.

MSU is going to be hit the hardest. The offense loses 7 starters, including 3 potential 1st rounders, and their passing offense will be decimated. On defense they lose 5 starters including three form their only good unit. I expect a big step backwards next year.

OSU is the hardest to quantify. They will be good, no doubt, but the variance is high. If all of the underclassmen who are projected to leave decide to stay and come back for one last run, OSU will be the preseason title favorites again, and have talent coming out the wazoo. If all of these guys end up leaving, OSU will have way too much to replace and probably be a bottom end top 25 team. If something in the middle happens, which is most likely, they will be a national title contender again but not the favorite, and probably be B1G co-favorites with Michigan.

Comments

GoBlueUSMC

November 18th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^

Very informative post.

Not to nit-pick but I was under the impression that the coaching staff had told Kingston Davis he wouldn't be playing fullback?  I remember reading that somewhere.

Wonder if Poggi gets the starts at FB next year.

Quailman

November 18th, 2015 at 2:59 PM ^

Yes, there are a few quotes out there where Davis mentions that the staff has told him he is a RB and not a FB, and it has sounded like Davis does not want to be a FB at all. For some reason, in about every mention of Davis, people peg him as the next FB. (Not a rag on the OP, I just see it all the time). Thats not to say that Davis doesnt get to campus (if he signs), doesnt win the RB spot and moves to FB, but for now he's a RB. 

gremlin3

November 18th, 2015 at 1:39 PM ^

Unfortunately, this doesn't mean we'll have a better roster, talent-wise. As always, we'll just have to wait and see.

Also, there are a lot of rumblings out there about attrition; e.g., the potential transfer of who I'm guessing is Derrick Green (a "star in name-only who came to Michigan to play for Brady Hoke," paraphrased from rivals). I wouldn't be surprised if Shane Morris transferred to a Grand Valley so he wouldn't have to sit a year.

EGD

November 19th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^

I have to imagine Morris is on the three-year plan at this point--meaning he should be in a position to graduate and transfer without penalty for next season. I bet he sizes up his chances in spring practice and makes a decision then; if O'Korn or one of the other QBs looks like the probable starter for 2016, then Morris probably transfers. If Morris is the leader out of spring practice, then I imagine he sticks around.

teldar

November 22nd, 2015 at 10:13 AM ^

There are going to be a number of players who do not come back, so I think there will be some that might surprise us. Numbers alone tell us that unless there are going to be many many gray shirts or PWO's handed out. Depth Chart by Class tells us there are 82 scholarships right now plus 13 graduating. That's only 16 and Harbaugh is pushing for 28 in this class. There are going to be another 12 guys leavin or a fair number of guys coming in aren't getting the scholarships we think they are.

alum96

November 18th, 2015 at 2:15 PM ^

Nice post.  I was going to do this, later this winter once football wound down and we saw early entries.  I was also going to do PSU.

The biggest takeway are the lines.

UM keeps 4/5 on OL and all the non BUCK DL guys.

OSU loses Washington and Bosa and Hale on DL.  OSU loses Decker, Boren, Farris on OL.  MSU loses Calhoun, Thomas, Heath on DL.  MSU loses Allen, McGowan and Conklin on OL.  MSU is currently recruiting Garrett Boles - a high end JUCO so I expect him to fill 1 of those holes.

Elflein is actually being mocked quite high in a lot of places so could go.  Zeke is going for sure - rbs have limited shelf life and with injury to Chubb and Fournette coming out in 2017 he should go now as he'll be the 1st back taken.  Smith is being mocked as a top 3 wr so I expect him to be gone too.  So I expect the offense to lose a ton.

Bosa is being mocked 1st overall and if not top 5, Conklin is a LT and will be demand mid to late 1st and was injured this year so should scare him straight into going. 

So the line advantage will be UM's next year for first time in long time even if OL only  makes small improvement.  DL should feast esp if we can find a BUCK.  No way we get Mario back - I have no idea why they are even trying.

OSU D is not talked about much since so mcuh focus is on that offense but it's a very good D and the loss of Darron Lee (also mocked in the 1st) and Perry means they would lose 5 of their front 7.

Back to MSU Harris will be a big loss.  Davis 6th year would certainly help.  I think their back 4 will be a lot better next year than maybe you presume.  They are playing a lot of freshman types and secondary guys suck as freshman but will be better as sophomores.  They do need Montae Nicholson to figure out his sophomore slump thing however.

p.s. PSU also loses Zettel and Nassib off their DL and only Johnson returns so big losses on their line too.   UM should have the best pair of lines in the Big 10 - not that their OL is super but just from the losses other teams are taking.

alum96

November 18th, 2015 at 2:19 PM ^

For MSU Troup and Arnett are not losses - they are like D'Mario Jones for us.

Shelton will become their top target but he is more of a "slottish" guy so they will need to find outside receivers.  They always seem to find a top guy every year - 2 years ago no one thought Lippett would be a stud, coming into this year Burbridge was an underachiever etc.  But it will have to be a young guy next year.  They are sort of going into next year like we did this year with some older veterans (Chesson, Darboh) and then counting on young guys.  Thus far our young guys have not delivered so we'll see if theirs do - they have some high level recruits in the 2015 and 2016 classes so they might have some true freshman out there.  (I do expect Corley to go green on Dec 8 but they have 2 other guys of similar ilk in that class in Justin Layne and Cam Chambers)  So if one of those 3 hits early that will help them but tough to count on true freshman Wrs.  Felton Davis is the 2015 guy they seem most impressed with.

Either way I think they revert a bit more to a typical MSU team with more emphasis on run next year.

p.s. I actually think next year is a great yr to play MSU in EL as they are breaking in a new QB, lose a ton off OL and DL.  And UM should have a very good team.  In 2017 UM loses almost everyone and will probably be our rebuilding year so I'd rather have OSU and MSU at home that year.  The 2017 team going into Columbus and EL would be troubling with how young that squad will be.

alum96

November 18th, 2015 at 2:12 PM ^

Turning to UM, I am hoping someone like a Dawson steps up to push the Magnuson's Kalis types.  I dont believe in Kugler until I see it - talk this spring was he was having trouble even snapping which is boggling for a kid whose dad was an NFL lineman and he was a C all his life.  So I am going to assume Cole to C and Newsome to a tackle based on the way the coaches have acted in terms of who is the 6th lineman. 

Obv the DL will be very good but we still need an edge rusher.  Again based on evidence I consider that a hole until it is not - Marshall has been in doghouse all year and some want to move Charlton ovevr there but he is too big to be a true BUCK esp with the 5-7 lbs he probably adds in weight training.  I am hoping Marshall gets his head out of his ass or one of the guys from last year is ready to step up i.e. Johnson or Jones; Jones body seems more like a BUCK but who knows.  I am not counting on a true freshman like Kemp to be an impact player.  So we have a BUCK issue but other than that the line looks solid.

LB scary - Gedeon is not good enough to displace Joe Bolden at this time (I dont believe in the loyaly to senior thing under Harbaugh - if Gedeon was better he would be taking Boldens snaps)  So our best LB next year is worse (at this point) than our worst this year.  A big hole.  Boggled that zero hype on Wangler or Furbush - we could not possibly go 0 for 4 out of 4 LBs in that class (Ferns, Winovich).  Maybe Furbush bulks up to play BUCK.  Jusy wish Ferns had held out for a month more - that guy had Harbaugh written all over him.  If we get a grad transfer here I dont expect a miracle but hopefully a backup who can help in case of injury.

And I am with you - Wilson won't be missed until he is gone.  Thomas has athletic upside to him and Hill has been one of only two D players who has not really improved this year ( good game vs Indiana at least) so that's a hole.  I am hoping Ty Kinnel is the truth and wins 1 of those spots next year however so the weaker of Thomas and Hill is relegated to backup.  I expect a lot of 4-2-5 next year.

I do expect Lewis back - for all the hype he simply is not showing up in mock drafts anywhere I am seeing whereas I see Butt everywhere.  His size hurts him - guys like King from Iowa and the 2 CBs from Minn are on all mock drafts as are guys like Vernon Hargreaves.

Based on mock drafts I could see Butt leaving (he is generally considered 3th to 5th best TE and could be a 2nd rounder) but guys like Henry, Wormley, Lewis are at this point not there.

EGD

November 19th, 2015 at 9:58 AM ^

I think M will be okay at safety. Dymonte Thomas has shown significant improvement this season and I think Hill is a good player despite some of the errors he's made this season. Even if they continue to improve mentally it's doubtful they can be as steady as Wilson, but Thomas especially has more playmaking ability. I know we like boring safeties around here, but if we can't have boring then we can at least have guys who should offset the occasional bust with a fair number of takeaways.

AcheBlue

November 18th, 2015 at 2:13 PM ^

A connected, well-liked, attentive and assertive AD would not have been blindsided by Delaney's (with Hollis' input?) and Swarbrick's sudden scheduling reversals. (But hey - the Horror 2.0!)

jmblue

November 18th, 2015 at 3:05 PM ^

Regarding Ed Davis getting a sixth year, the NCAA requires proof of having missed two seasons due to injury.  He obviously has this year, but was his other redshirt to injury?

spartanfan123

November 19th, 2015 at 10:57 AM ^

Dantonio doesn't disclose injury information so the website would not reflect that. Almost everyone gets "hurt" throughout a season. It might have not been season ending, but it isn't hard to get a 6th year. It happens all the time. 

Farnn

November 18th, 2015 at 3:28 PM ^

Even if all potential early entrants leave I don't think OSU would be bottom top 25. The way they are recruiting they would still be top 10. Remember last year they lost their starting QB preseason and had other new starters.

spartanfan123

November 18th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^

"although with how their secondary has played this year that may not be a good thing"

Really? Returning everyone is not a good thing, even if they have not played well? It would be better if everyone who sucks graduated and was replaced by people who couldn't beat them for a starting job in the first place? I've seen this logic so many times and never understood it. 

 

MSU's defense will be better next year. The D-Line will take a major step back, but the LBs and DBs should be improved with who they bring back. The return of Copeland, and hopefully a healthy Hicks, in the secondary will be huge. We've also had multiple true freshman start back there (Including both safeties in the MSU/Michigan game) and another at corner, who should get better.

 

The offense, however, has a chance of being 2012 (Maxwell) level. The QB battle will be huge (obviously), but unlike 2012 where it was Maxwell and a RS Freshman Cook, we'll have an actual competition between O'Connor and Terry. 

Bambi

November 18th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^

The secondary comment was mostly a jab at your secondary. It's obvious that bringing people back, no matter how poor the year prior is a good thing.

I think MSU's defense will be better for sure. A lot will depend on how much better the secondary gets. If they're all healthy and improve like they should they'll be much better. But then again they could all pull a Montae Nicholson.

UMForLife

November 18th, 2015 at 8:40 PM ^

Having a good DL is very important in B1G. Looking around the conference, there aren't many great QBs, but the teams are geared to run. While the LB play would help, DL is what makes it a better defense in B1G.

But, it should definitely help having some of those guys back so MSU can stack the box and play more single coverage. Good Corners should help so safeties can gamble.

Yard Dog

November 20th, 2015 at 10:14 AM ^

Lewerke may be in the mix at QB also.  Regardless of who is the QB, the dropoff is likely to be huge.  I do agree, the offense has the chance to be 2012 level, as they will likely have to ride their stable of RBs to get things going.  The good news for Spartan fans is that the RBs are talented.  The bad news is that the OL will be really new.

Tater

November 18th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^

How about a Cardale Jones grad transfer to Michigan?  He's a pure pro style QB stuck in a spread offense.  I know he "ain't come here to play school," but seems to have come a long way since making that comment.  IIRC, coaches can't block fifth year grad transfers.  I would love it just to see what our "friends" in Columbus would have to say.

MGoRedemption

November 18th, 2015 at 5:23 PM ^

everytime i hear "Adolphus Washington," i think adolphus hitler. Nice name choice, buckeye parents.

anyways, judging by this it seems like we will be in excellent shape next year to win the west division (hopefully again). 

RobinRedmond

November 18th, 2015 at 5:57 PM ^

It sounds like M could lose several backups as well due to transfer.  Hints about QBa,RBs and WRs have been making the rounds.  Any ideas as to which will go and which will stick it out?

 

Seriously

November 18th, 2015 at 7:49 PM ^

If all of these guys end up leaving, OSU will have way too much to replace and probably be a bottom end top 25 team.

Great analysis overall, but OSU would have to finish around 8-4 to rank so low.  I don't see that happening unless OSU loses a key assistant or two (like OL coach Ed Warinner) in addition to the players you mentioned.

Bambi

November 18th, 2015 at 8:28 PM ^

I'm saying worst case scenario here. One where Cardale, Zeke, Marshall, Wilson, Thomas, 4/5ths of the OL, 3/4ths of the DL, 2/3rds of the LB corps, and 3/4 of the secondary all leave. I know OSU has a ton of talent, but I still think that would be too much for them to overcome.

Also look at their schedule next year. At Oklahoma, Penn State, Wisconsin, MSU and home vs us, Nebraska and Northwestern. That's brutal. If they lose all that talent, combined with that schedule, I could definitely see 8-4 or 9-3, which is bottom part of the top 25.

alum96

November 18th, 2015 at 9:54 PM ^

2016 OSU is going to be a lot like 2017 UM if all the guys one expects to leave do leave.  Doesnt mean they are not talented but they will be very young.

It is not just possible but probable they lost 4 OL, top rb, top wr.  That is 6 of the 11.  If Elfein stays its still 5 of the 11.

On defense they lose their 2 best lbs if Lee goes (mocked 1st) and 3/4 of the DL.  Again that is 5 of front 7.   I am assuming their entire secondary returns but in theory they could lose 1 of those guys as well.

They are not at machine level of Bama yet where they just replace an entire team.  If OSU played in the SEC in 2012/2013 they would have lost more games in season - they just benefited from the Big 10 being a sorry conf outside of Wisc and MSU.

I see they open with Bowling Green - too bad Matt Johnson graduates because with BGs offense that could even be a scary opening game for them with the way they score 40-50 pts a game.  Not the type of offense you want to face in game 1 with a young D. 

MSU will be down too next year from this levels team (I know people say that every year but seriously next year is a 8-9 win type of team) but @ MSU, OK, NEB, PSU and hosting UM and NW - its not impossible to see a 9-3 team there.

If we have a valid QB UM very well should be Big 10 fav next year.  Then in 2017 we switch roles.  If O'Korn is legit we have a returning QB surrounded by a lot of very young players, a rebuilt line, and a defense that mostly all graduated.

Like I said next year is a very good year to play in EL and Columbus.  We will have our best team of this 3 yr cycle IMO (2015-2017) and OSU and MSU will prob have their worst teams of the 3 yr cycle.

Seriously

November 18th, 2015 at 11:03 PM ^

I should have checked the schedule.  That looks potentially rough.

OSU does have a ton of LB/RB/receiver (and QB) talent ready to step in, and there appear to be some good offensive line underclassmen.  Look what they did last year with 4 new O-line starters.  Warinner is a sorcerer.  Defensive tackles are scarce, though.

If OSU goes 8-4, that would match the worst season of Urban Meyer's career.  Seems unlikely, but it's not a crazy prediction.

doggdetroit

November 19th, 2015 at 12:59 AM ^

That schedule looks brutal - if you're Wisconsin. I think you are underestimating the talent on OSU's roster:

http://247sports.com/Season/2015-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite

OSU is #3 in the country, second to just Alabama and USC. So, yes they aren't Alabama in terms of reloading every year, but they are pretty damn close.

Now, this ranking isn't a perfect indicator of how talented a team's roster is since it doesn't account for higher rated busts or lower rated players who get developed, but it does give you a good idea of how well a team has recruited over the past 5 years. Of the opponents you mentioned, only Michigan is in OSU's ball park, coming in at #9. Oklahoma is #19, PSU is #21, MSU is #23, and Nebraska is #25. Wisconsin is #40, Northwestern is #48.

OSU could lose all of those early entrance players to the NFL and still return a roster more talented than every team it plays. Further, OSU's incoming class is rated #2 and has a good shot at challenging Alabama for #1. Even more critical is that they return JT Barrett so OSU won't be losing a game early on because of an inexperienced QB.

OSU going 9-3/8-4 next year is a big stretch. Far more likely is a 11-1/10-2 regular season.
 

Bambi

November 19th, 2015 at 8:53 AM ^

No, that schedule is brutal for anyone. OSU definitely has a ton of talent on the roster next year, but I think you're overestimating recruiting rankings and underestimating experience.

Teams like Wisconsin, MSU etc. have never been close to OSU on recruiting talent in the past, yet have managed to beat them. I mean two years ago when OSU had an incredibly talented and experienced roster, they still lost to MSU in the B1G title game.

Hell look at this year. OSU has an incredible talented roster, both in terms of NFL talent and recruiting rankings. Yet they barely beat Indiana on the road, Minnesota at home and NIU at home. Last year when PSU was still very much feeling the hurt of their recruiting sanctions they took OSU to OT at Penn State. Last years OSU team also lost to VT, barely beat us and barely beat Minnesota. And that team won the national title. Imagine what happens in all of these games if OSU is playing with 2/3rds backups, which is essentially the case in this scenario?

In this scenario does OSU have the talent to still be undefeated? Sure. But that schedule is brutal and they'd have close to no experience. More likely than not they'd struggle, especially early in the year.

Also if recruiting rankings mattered that much, why wouldn't USC be in the same boat as OSU and Alabama? It matters, but so does coaching and experience. OSU has the coaching, but not the experience in this scenario. Because of that I think 9-3/8-4 could be pretty realistic.

doggdetroit

November 19th, 2015 at 4:41 PM ^

Recruiting matters more than you think, I'd argue it is the most accurate predictor of future success:

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/2/5/5382140/recruiting-matters-wh…

http://www.sbnation.com/a/college-football-preview-2015/blue-chip-ratio

When you combine elite recruiting with elite coaching, you end up with Carroll's USC, Saban's Alabama, and now Meyer's OSU. These teams weren't/aren't invincible but losses are rare. USC has had elite recruiting the past 4 years but they have been coached by Lane Kiffin, Ed Orgeron, Steve Sarkisian, and now Clay Helton. They also had to deal with NCAA sanctions, so I don't think USC is a very good counterpoint to my argument.

Under Meyer, OSU is 48-3. He's 30-0 in regular season B1G play. His only loss to a B1G team came in the title game to MSU, which won the Rose Bowl and finished with 1 loss. That was a great MSU team. Wisconsin has never beaten Meyer and has nowhere near the talent MSU had or has. In fact, I recall Wisconsin losing by 59 to OSU last year. This year, Indiana pushed OSU to the limit, as IU has done to every single team save for PSU. They are a decent team as Michigan just found out. The Minnesota and NIU games were also close but never once was OSU in serious danger of losing either. They have beaten everyone else by more than 2TDs.

Experience matters, but only to a certain degree. You've correctly pointed out that MSU is going to take a step back next year since they don't recruit at an elite level. On the other hand, when you are overwhelming the opposition with superior talent, it matters much less. Case in point: Clemson. They were deemed inexperienced entering this year returning just 10 starters, yet they've largely rolled through their schedule since they are more talented than everyone save for 1 or 2 teams. Last year, OSU was deemed inexperienced returning just 12 starters. They lost 1 game and won the NC.

In college football, upsets happen. Close games happen.  So yes, OSU could very well lose a game or 2 next year, but 3 or 4? That would require them losing multiple games to significantly inferior teams. Realistically, they split Oklahoma (early in the year) and Michigan (possibly the superior team), and then drop one of the following: MSU, PSU, or Wisconsin (all on the road, but all have various weaknessess). I don't see Nebraska who is still transitioning or Northwestern (we just saw what happens with NW faces a team with an overwhelming talent advantage) hanging with OSU.


 

Bambi

November 19th, 2015 at 6:39 PM ^

I understand that recruiting is important, I'm not trying to argue against that. I know OSU is going to have a ton of talent, and Urban is a great coach. And you're right, seasons with 3+ losses for Urban at OSU will be few and far between. My point is that next year, if OSU loses all this talent, it will more likely than not be one of those years.

Look at Nick Saban. So many great years at Alabama, but in the middle of all of it was a 10-3 2010 season. Pete Carrol's last season at USC he went 9-4. And look at Meyer when he was at Florida. He had two different seasons where he lost 4 or 5 games.

I especially want you to take a look at the 2007 season. Florida is coming off a national title winning season, had a Heisman winning QB that year in Tebow, but lost 17 (!!) starters from the year before and went 9-4 as a result. And that roster still had a ton of talent. They had players like Percy Harvin, Aaron Hernandez, Riley Cooper, Brandon Spikes, Joe Haden, Derrick Harvey, Carlos Dunlap, the Pouncey twins, and so much more and won the national title the next year. But it took all those new starters, despite their immense talent, a year to adjust to college football. They went through some growing pains and went 9-4 as a result. That sounds exactly like this OSU team next year.

You mention Clemson this year as a comparison, but these are not the same situations. Clemson's schedule this year is a joke. They've played two teams with a pulse. Notre Dame, who Clemson barely beat at home because Notre Dame it seemed like was trying to lose, and FSU, a team who is coming off two great years and has great talent and great recruiting but is probably going to lose at least 3 games this year (sound familiar?).

And despite what you're saying, OSU has an incredibly hard schedule next year. According to that first link you posted, OSU has games against two 5 star programs next year, 2 4 star programs, and one of the major outlying 3-star teams. That's a tough schedule, and Wisconsin isn't even included in that group. So yeah, 3 losses could definitely happen out of those 6 games.

You brush aside every other game as if OSU has 0 chance of losing, but upsets happen, that's why we play the game. Especially to a talented, unexperienced team like OSU will be next year. Indiana this year, only a "decent" team according to you, almost beat OSU while playing most of the game with their backup backfield. Minnesota wasone overturned targeting call away from OT vs OSU. NIU had a chance to tie the game and send it to OT. Next year's OSU team will at best be as talented as this one, but with none of the experience. So could OSU next year drop a game to a "decent" team like Indiana? If they almost did this year, I don't see why not.

I'm not saying OSU will 100% go 8-4 or 9-3. They could still go 11-1. But if you asked me what's more likely between 11-1/12-0 next year or 8-4/9-3, assuming all of this talent does leave, I'd probably go 8-4/9-3.

UMForLife

November 18th, 2015 at 8:42 PM ^

Great Analysis. Thanks for doing this. If we breakout a good QB, we have a real chance to come out on top in B1G next year. I hope we build on this next year and build up the freshmen for 2017. Next year could be special if we can find a few skilled players, especially a great QB.

PM

November 19th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^

He has been practicing so I don't see him falling behind a freshman in the rotation at tight end next year. If Bunting can add good weight and learn to block we have the makings of a talented and deep rotation sooner rather than later.

Bambi

November 19th, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^

Honestly I completely forgot about Wheatley when doing this post. He could definitely contribute at TE, he's supposed to be a prety good blocker so he could take over the AJ Williams role in that regard. I think it would be interesting/fun to see him play in the backfield as FB if we're struggling to find someone there, because of his size and who his dad is, but he's probably way too big to do that.

If Butt returns and we get Nauata, his best position for next year honestly might be DE. Sam Webb said he was a great pass rusher, and both Wheatley's dad and HS coach said his highest upside is at DE. If no one emerges at BUCK, he could potentially be a guy there.

He's listed at 6-6, 260 on the official roster so he's bigger than what you'd normally want out of a guy at that position. For comparison RJS and Ojemudia are 6-2 240 and 6-2 252 respectively. But Lawrence Marshall, a guy who the staff considers a BUCK, is 6-4 238 and Taco, a guy who people (including me) have said might switch over to BUCK next year if need be, is 6-6 273. So Wheatley is right in the middle there size wise, and smaller than a guy like Taco and many think is too big to be a BUCK.

If Wheatley can keep his weight right around 260, but have it be a good 260, I think he's a viable option there. He's probably bigger than the ideal BUCK, but he's smaller than Taco and if we end up being as thin there as we fear and he's as good a pass rusher as advertised, I'm all for giving him a shot there.

alum96

November 19th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^

He could also be an OL. Jay said he is fighting off Drevno this week to keep him.

"I'm going to fight off (offensive line coach/offensive coordinator Tim Drevno) for that one I think," he laughed. "I don't want Drev to get too close to him."

MGoStrength

November 19th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^

I'm very curious to hear if we'd heard much about the OSU juniors like Apple, Bell, Powell, Marhsall, and Thomas?  I think the loss of Bosa & Elliot by itself will be a big hit.  Granted they have talent everywhere, but those two are by far the most productive IMO.

kevin holt

November 19th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^

This is blasphemous, but if OSU makes the playoffs, would we actually want them to win? Obviously not because a repeat champ OSU would be really really shitty to deal with. But wouldn't it be easier to sell their juniors on staying another year if they lost in the final four? "Ezekiel, if you stay for next year, we'll win it all this time."

If they hadn't won last year I might say yes. But having a repeat champ would be just terrible. Just fucking terrible.

Bambi

November 19th, 2015 at 1:18 PM ^

I get where you're coming from, but I still think no. All of these kids were major contributors for the national title winning team last year. They have all accomplished that part of their CFB career. They're all also 2-0 or 3-0 against Michigan at this point, have won a B1G title, basically done everything you could want to do in college. If they chose to come back, odds are it won't be because they feel the need to accomplish more.

And if these kids all are motivated enough to come back after one year where they didn't win the national title but still had a great year, who's to say they won't be motivated to come back for a third in a row if they get one this year as well?

Basically never root for OSU success, except for this Saturday.

Wolverine 73

November 19th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^

One quibble, however.  You mentioned several MSU and OSU players would "graduate."  I think you meant to say they would exhaust their eligibility.  Don't want to assume too much, some of them did not go there to play school.