SEARCHBITS XI: APPARENTLY THESE ARE DAILY? Comment Count

Brian

I don't really have much today. Sorry. Monday must be trash night. Wait a second…

/takes out trash

angryharbaugh1[1]nfl_u_jimharbaugh_ah_600[1]

never not funny

ANYWAY. Yesterday was notable for two reasons: the Football Bust and a you-dead Harbaugh press conference. Harbaugh's response to the inevitable Qs about his job:

“I don’t talk about any other job other than the one that I have,” Harbaugh told reporters on Monday.  “And I’ve answered this question many times, even recently, so you’d know exactly what my priorities are.  I get this from the Marines, ‘Leaders eat last.’  My number one priority is winning football games.  Second priority is the welfare of our players, our coaches, all our staff, for the welfare of our team.  And lastly is my own personal professional future.”

If that quintessential non-denial-denial was not sufficient, poke a Michigan insider and he's calling BS on reports that Michigan is out. Webb:

…the growing NFL sentiment that Harbaugh will remain in the professional ranks is an overstatement in our view, it does speak to the belief held by some that have talked to him in recent weeks that he will be tougher to lure away from the pros than previously thought. The source to which Harbaugh reported his ongoing uncertainty about the future to put the odds of his return to Ann Arbor at 50/50.

See also 247, Rivals, etc. The divergence between the Michigan people and the NFL people is massive. It would probably be even larger if anyone knew exactly what happened with Brandon and Harbaugh in 2010. In retrospect, the popular story about how he was in the bag and then flaked sounds a lot like Dave Brandon making himself look good instead of objective reality. Brandon blew everything else and was a pathological liar. If his version of 2010 events is the reason people are hesitant, I might increment myself from hopeful to optimistic.

WE DON'T HAVE FLIGHT AWARE SO GIVE US THIS AT LEAST. We're gonna extrapolate from minimal information and nobody can stop us. Block the plane, fly commercial: whatever, man. We've got body language.

Watch the relevant part of Jim's latest press conference here, from 7:40 to 8:35. http://mgovideo.com/jim-harbaugh-monday-presser-12-8-14/

Now watch this youtube video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiIP_KDQmXs

HE'S HIDING SOMETHING!!!1!

Seriously though, he tenses right up, starts using his hands/arms, sort of rambles, etc. You get a body language expert in here, and that's a Michigan coach at that podium.

Let's get a body language expert in here then.

SHORTLY AFTER, YOU SAY? Tyree Kinnel tells Scout's Dave Berk that a Michigan assistant contacted him and said that Michigan hopes to have a head coach in place($). "right after Christmas." Like, four days after maybe?

Les-Miles[1]

sad clapz

MILES? Webb also reiterated what Les Miles himself said a couple days ago: unlike everyone from Steve Addazio on up, he hasn't heard anything from Michigan. Lorenz thinks that's not a death knell for his prospects($) if Harbaugh doesn't happen; John U Bacon had a similar take in a post-Bust interview with the local Fox station that MGoUser michgoblue provided Cliffs Notes for on the board. I'm still skeptical, as you know.

AS FOR THE BUST. Not much of interest coaching-search wise, just Hackett saying he has been "blown away" by the level of interest in the job and Reggie McKenzie advocating Mike Trgovac.

Trgovac was an interesting candidate in 2007 while he was in the midst of a pretty successful run as the Panthers' DC, but he's been stuck as the Packers' DL coach since 2009. It is kind of surprising that we hear about Teryl Austin but not him; neither is likely to be plan B… or G.

PLAN B? OKAY. I've heard Bob Stoops may be available as familiarity with an .800 win rate breeds contempt at Oklahoma; Lorenz echoes that strongly($) in his latest, and you begin to wonder if there was something real behind that Stoops-should-leave moment we had a few weeks ago, as unlikely as that seems. Chris Petersen was never going to go anywhere until he did; Bob Stoops could be in a similar boat.

It still seems highly doubtful. It's just plausible enough to kick the tires and see what happens, which at least makes it a lot more sensible than Sean Payton.

Meanwhile: this is yet another spread coach. In Stoops's case it's an Air Raid so prolific that seemingly half the country has an offensive coordinator from the Stoops tree. Stoops famously installed Mike Leach in his first year as a head coach because he hated defending Kentucky's offense and wanted to hire it, and he's never waved. That shouldn't be a problem, but recent history of Michigan etc etc etc. The Air Raid is a better fit with Michigan's current QB corps, but if you want a pro-style guy this is not it. (If this does not make you reconsider your pro-style dogmatism, I cannot help you.)

COORDINATORS? I'd be fine with a coordinator if he came with the correct combination of impressive performance, recruiting output, and long-term upside—I've got a brief post later today on how frequent the promotion is even for big time programs. Sam's starting to poke around those guys as well, mentioning a few NFL guys($) even outside the obvious Teryl Austin. IRL troll Colin Cowherd brought up Seahawks OC Darrell Bevell, a former Wisconsin QB who's been an OC in the NFL for about a decade. If Michigan is going to make the dubious decision to grab an NFL coordinator, he is one of the guys who makes some sense.

I'm not too interested  those gentlemen, but Sam also says that one of the 14-man list Hackett told the team he was evaluating is a current Big Ten coordinator($). That can only be one of two guys: Pat Narduzzi or Tom Herman.

ncf_i_herman_576x324[1]

Who's up for decades of Herman's Head jokes? Just me? Oh.

This site is highly intrigued by Herman, who Urban Meyer yoinked off an uninspiring three-year tenure as Iowa State's OC to his great profit. Since, he's coordinated consecutive top-ten offenses by any metric you care to name. The latter is an incredibly resilient year in which Herman lost four OL, his QB, and his top RB without batting an eye, then lost his second-string QB and still turned Wisconsin into a radioactive, glassy plain.

Herman is a Broyles finalist this year and was the 2013 Rivals Big Ten recruiter of the year—he's the total package.

Narduzzi is a bit less exciting because it's hard to tell exactly how much he is the MSU defense and how much is Dantonio. That's less of a concern for Herman because Dan Mullen went on to succeed at Mississippi State and Florida cratered under Steve Addazio; Meyer is also less insanely involved in the day-to-day after his UF freakout period.

There were also some signs that MSU's defense was beginning to get figured out this year. Oregon and Ohio State took advantage of MSU's aggressive cover-four safeties by blazing guys down the slot until the Spartans didn't know what to think; I'd prefer the guy who put up 49 this year on the MSU defense instead of the guy who ceded same.

Either would be preferable to a low-upside head coach, be he an older gentleman or a debatably good idea.

PLAN Z. File this under "agent": Washington coach Jay Gruden, who has done nothing in his coaching career of note other than be named Gruden, is getting fired soon. You will not be shocked what is being floated out there by his agent, then:

One source I trust tipped me off to a potential landing spot for Gruden: The University of Michigan. This source, who is intimately familiar with the Wolverines’ rapidly emerging coaching search, informed me on Thursday that initial contact has been made between the parties and that Gruden’s representation was enthusiastically open to the potential. I can’t put a figure on the likelihood of Gruden fleeing to Ann Arbor, and another UM source I trust refused to confirm anything I asked, but it’s an interesting leverage point nonetheless.

Never trust a sentence with "rapidly emerging" in front of words that need no adjectives. Gruden is 3-10 with Washington and most of his coaching career prior was spent in the Arena League; this snippet means that Gruden's agent called Michigan and was not quite laughed at. The only thing this means is that he's out the door in Washington; it has no relevance to Michigan's search.

Etc.: I agree.

Comments

beedub93

December 9th, 2014 at 12:32 PM ^

along with countless others if he is hired.  If folks think Riley was an uninspired hire, then they haven't seen anything yet if this goes down.

EDIT - This comment was a reply to Lester, who is no longer among those with the capability to post. - LSA

ijohnb

December 9th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^

I really don't care.  I know that I don't speak for the blog, but I have reached my Harbaugh limit.  i am beginning to kind of tire of him already and he has not even commented on the job.  I am ready for a hoops v. Eastern Michigan preview.

In reply to by ijohnb

'07LesMilesMafia

December 9th, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^

might want to avoid this place for a couple weeks because the build up/melt down is just beginning

In reply to by ijohnb

AZ-Blue

December 9th, 2014 at 5:32 PM ^

ijohnb is immediately pummelled with downvotes for stepping out of the chamber.  Serves you right.  Now get back in here and bathe in the warmth and comfort of teh Harbs.

beedub93

December 9th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^

the left is a gesture that Harbaugh will make towards Dantonio and Meyer at B1G media days in Chicago and then he actually does the real thing to those two teams.

FreddieMercuryHayes

December 9th, 2014 at 12:34 PM ^

The more I think about it, the more I want Herman if UM strikes out on Harbaugh and Stoops isn't available.  I would happy with guys like Miles or Mullen, but the upside if you get Herman and he is as good an HC as he is an co-ordinator is just astronomical.  I hadn't realized how dominate his offense had been until I reaserached it at every stop he's made.  And the Meyer endorsement means a lot at this point as well.  And he's from Ohio and lived/worked in California for a while too; connections in many places.  I have no idea if he can pick a good DC, but you can almost gaurentee one side of the ball will be elite.  But yeah, building a staff and being an HC is much different, and it would be a gamble. 

charblue.

December 9th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^

and it reaped decades of rewards. Today, the gamble on Herman is greater than this school can afford even if all signs point toward a skyrocketing future. I wouldn't mind Michigan going in that direction, however, if Harbaugh decides his future is elsewhere. But I doubt the search will lead to his signing as a backup choice because Michigan needs a blockbuster move to bolster itself. I think Herman has a bright future but Michigan seems unlikely at this point to be his through the looking glass opportunity.

Hail-Storm

December 9th, 2014 at 1:47 PM ^

I really think it's Harbaugh and then a huge gap.

Herman seems to have a lot more upside than a lot of the other coaches.  Miles is old (do we really want another coaching search that quickly) with people possibly against him for recruiting and other discrepancies, and Mullen and Stoops are not sure hires/ would want to come.

I really think Herman would be a solid plan B. I really would not be stoked to hire Narduzzi.  I'm not a huge fan of the way he has handled the rivalry. Seems like he would not be genuine if all of the sudden he took the Michigan job and loved everything Michigan.  

michgoblue

December 9th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^

I am not that concerned by his Iowa State tenure.  The level of players who he would be coaching at Michigan is more in line with those that he is coaching now at OSU than those that he was coaching at Iowa State.

I really like Herman for this hire, and have for a while.  Aside from his recruiting and offensive chops, I love that this would totally reinvigorate the rivalry.  Hell, last time we poached an OSU coach for our HC, it worked out ok and let to an epic 10 year war.

 

 

Don

December 9th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^

Except that "OSU coach" that Canham hired was a Miami of Ohio head coach with six seasons under his belt. There was solid evidence that he had what it takes to be a solid head coach. With Herman, there is no evidence, just conjecture.

alum96

December 9th, 2014 at 4:24 PM ^

Brian wrote that because his Iowa State stint was uninspiring.  He had one ok year - his first year - and ISU then just went right back to being ISU in his 2nd and 3rd year.  

I am unclear why people think the coordinator of a highly successful HC who has run this offense at 4 different schools with multiple coordinators is the main reason behind its success.  The reason for that offense's success is Urban Meyer.  And good offenses can be run at lower level programs like ISU.  Mike Leach was running one at texas tech which is not much different than Iowa State.  Briles ran a high powered offense at Houston.  So did Sumlin.  Todd Graham ran a high powered offense at Tulsa.  Even Kevin Wilson at Indiana can run a good offense with low rated recruits.  Its actually much more difficult to field good defenses if you dont recruit at the same level as your peers than it is offense because offense you can compesnate to a degree via scheme.  Defense you cannot.

Here is Herman's 3 years bolded vs the prior 2 years.  Again 1 modest year of success in year 1 and then 2 bad years.

To put in perspective UM's horrid 2014 offense is 82 (oFEI), 73 (S&P+)

  W/L Tot Off oFEI oS&P+
2007     89 109
2008     74 105
2009     51 42
2010     79 83
2011*     82 101

 

mgoBrad

December 9th, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^

In case you needed another reason to dismiss this whole idea.

PB-J Time

December 9th, 2014 at 12:35 PM ^

Every day that goes by I do think that Jim Harbaugh will be our next coach. I do believe that if it were to be anyone else, it would have happened already.

I just don't think we'd be waiting this long for Miles, a coordinator, or even stoops.

And yes I like (what seems) everybody else think he's a great choice. I also think there're other great coaches, but the longer this goes I think it's him.




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evenyoubrutus

December 9th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^

Wikipedia begs to differ with that statement about Herman's time at Iowa State:

 

Iowa State[edit]

After building of one of the nation’s most prolific offenses at Rice University, Herman joined the Iowa State as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.[1][4] Herman installed his system and brought new life into the offense.[citation needed] During his three seasons at Iowa State, the offense improved considerably and broke numerous team and player school records.[citation needed] Iowa State's 52 points in a win over Texas Tech marked the most points put up by the Cyclones against a conference opponent in 38 years. Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud ended his career as the Cyclones No. 2 all-time leading passer with 6,777 yards and 42 touchdown passes. His 8,044 yards of total offense is the second-best total in school history. Running back Alexander Robinson finished his Iowa State career as the Cyclones' fourth all-time leading rusher with 3,309 yards.[5]

PeterKlima

December 9th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^

He seems to be a very good coordinator, who was great when Max Bullough was his "quarterback" on the field.  On the other hand, Herman lost his ACTUAL quarterback, twice, and still did great.  Overall, though, I hope it is neither.