No Damn Reason At All Comment Count

Brian

11/26/2016 – Michigan 27, Ohio State 30 (2OT) – 10-2, 7-2 Big Ten

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[Eric Upchurch]

After all that, the thing that sticks with me is something much more prosaic than the various outrages everyone's going on about. It's third and four in the fourth quarter. Ohio State literally triple-covers Jake Butt; Wilton Speight finds Amara Darboh open on a quick slant. The ball is behind Darboh, tough but catchable. Darboh does not catch it. Michigan punts with five minutes and change left on the clock.

Why did that happen?

I don't know. Nobody does, but very few people tasked with writing about a thing will tell you that. Everyone else will reach for any explanation of remote plausibility, from an injured shoulder to CHOKING like a CLOWN FRAUD. Whatever, doesn't matter. Just as long as there's a reason a thing occurred, we can go on with our lives.

I think that happened for no damn reason at all. Yes, if you replaced Speight with Tom Brady that pass was more likely to be accurate. If you replaced him with Tyler O'Connor, less likely. It is still a simple five-yard throw that is amongst the easiest in the quarterback's repertoire. It is within the capabilities of the QB. Speight probably hits 90% of them, especially on a day where he is locked in. The most likely explanation for why he did not hit that one is none at all. The most likely reason Darboh did not catch a tough but catchable pass is none at all.

There are entire fields of study dedicated to the fallibility of the human brain, which refuses to operate cleanly. (I just put a D into the word "entire" as I was typing that sentence out.) These exist mostly because planes crash into each other and space shuttles explode and not because football happens sometimes, which just goes to show that people have strange priorities.

--------------------------------------------------

Speaking of the fallibility of the human brain:

It is hard to take that sort of thing. Michigan had just gotten a flag on a similar, but less severe, defensive holding incident on the prior Ohio State drive. That ended a Michigan drive that had reached midfield; if called correctly Michigan has first and ten at the Ohio State 40.

Later in the game the same pattern would repeat. Delano Hill was flagged for pass interference on third and 14 when he unnecessarily grabbed the waist of Curtis Samuel before the ball arrived; the exact same thing happened to Grant Perry on a third down conversion attempt and was ignored. Again, that sets Michigan up with a first down, this one on the ten in the second overtime. Again it was preceded by a call so similar against Michigan it beggars belief that a flag did not come out.

That's tough to get over. The spot was close enough and chaotic enough that it falls within the realm of the unknowable. An MGoUser who knows what parallax is and went over available evidence with a fine-toothed comb thinks Barrett made it by literally an inch or two. While I thought the spot was wrong I knew they would not overturn it, because they never overturn spots without some sort of egregious his-knee-was-down-ten-yards-ago kind of thing. In isolation that call is, in the cold light of day two days later, too close to have a definitive resolution. If it was wrong it very well could have been an honest mistake.

It is difficult to interpret either of the above incidents as honest, or a mistake. It's difficult to see a standard-issue Harbaugh blowup get flagged in the Game when we've seen the same thing tolerated all year. It's difficult to believe that Michigan's defensive line hasn't benefited from a holding call since the Illinois game.

This is the point at which newspapery types come in with the You Had Your Opportunities To Win The Game, an asinine criticism since that's literally true of both teams in every close game ever played. You can believe that Michigan had opportunities to win they did not take and simultaneously believe that the officiating gave you less than a 50/50 shot in a 50/50 game.

And then you're putting guys out on the field from the state of Ohio who were previously banned from working The Game because of how it might look? What the fuck are you even doing, Big Ten?

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[Patrick Barron]

What's that? Counting your money? Right. Well done.

--------------------------------------------

Michigan lost this game. They did so for many reasons.

Their mistakes were punished as ruthlessly as possible. A floating ball goes directly to a defender. A fumbled snap is recovered by the defense. Curtis Samuel escapes a huge loss three times and sets up the fourth down that falls within the margin of error.

They did not take advantage of plays that were there to be made. Speight threw behind Darboh twice; Darboh did not bail him out. Karan Higdon missed a cut on what would have been a huge gain. Smith did not run over a safety prior to the fumble.

They did not get a fair whistle. See above.

All that and it came down to a literal inch. A rivalry classic, and an invitation for a bunch of hooting jackals to hoot some more. As for us on the other side, nothing to do but soldier on in the gray light of morning.

AWARDS

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there is another [Bryan Fuller]

Known Friends And Trusted Agents Of The Week

-2535ac8789d1b499[1]you're the man now, dog

#1 Taco Charlton was the most rampant of Michigan's very rampant defensive line, acquiring two and a half sacks and forcing Barrett to move around several other times.

#2 (tie) Ben Gedeon and Mike McCray shut off the Ohio State edge except on a couple plays where Michigan was successfully out-leveraged pre-snap. It was weird to see neutrals on twitter wondering why anyone would run east-west against The Michigan Defense, but they were, because it didn't work. They picked up 19 tackles between them, two sacks, another TFL, and McCray batted down two passes. McCray also forced a sack when he leapt in the passing lane of a third.

#3 Kenny Allen bombed all but one of his punts; he mastered the Ron Coluzzi hard right turn; he had just one touchback, that on a punt that still had a 40+ yard net; Curtis Samuel had just one quickly snuffed return opportunity; he hit a couple field goals; none of his kickoffs were returnable.

Honorable mention: Channing Stribling broke up the only deep shot on the day; OSU decided they were not going to bother with either him or Jourdan Lewis. The rest of the defensive line was terrific all day; the tackles were very good in pass protection against some tough customers. Peppers had a big KOR, an interception, and was also a major part of the edge being closed down.

KFaTAotW Standings.

10: Wilton Speight (#1 UCF, #1 Illinois, #3 MSU, #1 Maryland), Taco Charlton(three-way T1, PSU, same vs Rutgers, #3 Maryland, #2 Iowa, #2 Indiana, #1 OSU).
9: Jabrill Peppers(T2, Hawaii; #3 UCF, #1 Colorado, #2 Rutgers, #2 MSU)
5: Ryan Glasgow(#2 UCF, #1 UW), Chris Wormley (three-way T1, PSU, same vs Rutgers, #1 Iowa).
4: Jourdan Lewis (#3 UW, #2 Maryland, #3 Indiana), Mike McCray(#1 Hawaii, T2 OSU), Ben Gedeon(#3 Colorado, #3 PSU, three-way T1 Rutgers, T2 OSU).
3.5: De'Veon Smith (four-way T2, PSU, #1 Indiana).
3: Amara Darboh(#1 MSU).
2.5: Karan Higdon(four-way T2, PSU, #2 Illinois).
2: Jake Butt(#2 Colorado), Kyle Kalis (#2 UW)
1: Delano Hill (T2, Hawaii), Chris Evans (T3, Hawaii, four-way T2, PSU),  Maurice Hurst (three-way T1, PSU),  Devin Asiasi(#3 Rutgers), Ben Braden (#3 Illinois), Channing Stribling (#3 Iowa), Kenny Allen (#3 OSU).
0.5: Mason Cole(T3, Hawaii), Ty Isaac (four-way T2, PSU).

Who's Got It Better Than Us Of The Week

This week's best thing ever.

It's a goat in a duck costume!

Honorable mention: is that not sufficient

WGIBTUs Past.

Hawaii: Laughter-inducing Peppers punt return.
UCF: Speight opens his Rex Grossman account.
Colorado: Peppers cashes it in.
PSU: Wormley's sack establishes a theme.
UW: Darboh puts Michigan ahead for good.
Rutgers: Peppers presses "on".
Illinois: TRAIN 2.0.
MSU: lol, two points.
Maryland: very complicated bomb.
Iowa: The touchdown.
Indiana: Smith woodchips Michigan a lead.
OSU: Goat. Duck costume. Yeah.

imageMARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

This week's worst thing ever.

The Spot.

Honorable mention: The ensuing play. Speight fumbles the snap; Speight gets hit on the throw and offers up a pick six; Speight throws an INT that is on him; various refereeing malfeasances.

PREVIOUS EPIC DOUBLE BIRDs

Hawaii: Not Mone again.
UCF: Uh, Dymonte, you may want to either tackle or at least lightly brush that guy.
Colorado: Speight blindsided.
PSU: Clark's noncontact ACL injury.
UW: Newsome joins the ranks of the injured.
Rutgers: you can't call back the Mona Lisa of punt returns, man.
Illinois: They scored a what now? On Michigan? A touchdown?
Michigan State: a terrifying first drive momentarily makes you think you're in the mirror universe.
Maryland: Edge defense is a confirmed issue.
Iowa: Kalis hands Iowa a safety.
Indiana: A legitimate drive.
OSU: The Spot.

[After THE JUMP: ~3000 additional words, 43% of which are swears.]

OFFENSE

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[Upchurch]

Seemed kind of good, and then very bad, and then kind of good again. Wilton Speight has some pretty odd stats for a guy who seemed to carry Michigan's offense by himself: 6.1 yards an attempt, which is bad. Add in two interceptions and it's very bad. Add in a disastrous fumbled snap and... it is not better. That did not make things better.

One of the interceptions was not his fault. Speight IDed Chesson open behind a picket fence zone and threw it to him; Raekwon McMillian, who got in scot free, intervened before he could complete his throwing motion. It's just crap luck the ball went directly to a defender.

The other INT and the fumble are directly on Speight, with Cole maybe factoring in on the fumble. On the one hand, those lost the game. On the other, Michigan was in position to win it because Speight was calm, accurate, and brave.

No deep shots. Part of the reason Michigan's YPA was so low was a total lack of deep balls. A sail route completion to Jake Butt for 22 yards was Michigan's longest gain of the day, and a fair chunk of that was yards after the catch. I have to assume that was due to Speight's injury. Either he couldn't get the necessary oomph on deep balls or Michigan was loathe to expose him to the OSU pass rush because they feared he would get knocked out.

Just not enough. The one position group that was clearly overwhelmed was the offensive line. Smith and Evans combined to average under three yards a carry, and most of that was on the OL unable to generate much of anything.

This was a Hoke legacy Harbaugh was unable to overcome. Whatever improvements Michigan was able to generate in their senior trio did not get them to All Big Ten levels, let alone All America, with the possible exception of Erik Magnuson. (My opinion: meh, but depending on the NFL scout you listen to he's apparently got a chance.) When Grant Newsome, a true sophomore, got knocked out for the year a true freshman replaced him. There was zero depth behind the starters and that bit hard as Ben Bredeson struggled, as true freshmen tend to.

This was partially bad luck. The nature of Logan Tuley-Tillman's departure could not be predicted. It was partially terrible evaluation. Michigan passed on LSU All-American Ethan Pocic because they thought they were full, then took Dan Samuelson towards the end of the cycle. Samuelson quit football soon after realizing he was overmatched in year two. It was partially a lack of ruthlessness: Chris Fox had a terrible knee injury that made him unlikely to work out in college and Michigan still took him. Fox did transition to a medical scholarship relatively quickly, but Michigan didn't react to his inability to play quickly enough. It was partially crappy coaching, because Hoke.

The tackles pass-protected well, though.

Aaargh. Michigan's offset draw worked to near perfection except for one thing. Higdon did not cut behind Cole.

That's a huge, huge gain otherwise.

Smith did not flatten the fishing village. While we're complaining about running backs, Malik Hooker twice hewed down De'Veon Smith in ways I did not think were possible for a safety. The first turned out to be a game changing play, as it came when Smith busted to the second level on a goal-to-go carry. As he did so I thought "YES!!!" because surely this was a touchdown; surely I had seen sufficient Smith-versus-secondary matchups to know that the two safeties coming in at an angle had precious little chance to shut Smith down without YAC.

And yet, Hooker did. Speight fumbled on the ensuing snap. That tackle is the play of the game, along with all the other ones.

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[Patrick Barron]

Perry had a solid day. Grant Perry hadn't had much impact this year, in part due to a mid-season suspension. Against OSU he was open repeatedly and hit for several critical third down conversions. I expect his role will grow considerably next year as Jake Butt's third down skills head to the NFL.

DEFENSE

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[Upchurch]

Can't ask for more. Michigan's defense gave up approximately ten points in regulation. OSU had three field goal drives, two of which their kicker missed, and turned first and ten from the fifteen into a touchdown with assistance from a personal foul on Harbaugh. OSU averaged under 4 yards a play.

Confusion even in game 12. Only two things even slightly ground the ol' gears. One of them was Michigan's confusion at various points during the game. OSU motion was all too frequently met with cabinet meetings amongst the Michigan secondary.

A four-man box against an empty set could not have been correct; it resulted in a 41-yard Barrett draw/scramble. Noah Brown was provided a free first down late in the game when Michigan put two DBs over three WRs. A couple other times Michigan did not get aligned; those instances did not have straight lines between tempo and success but there was a definite correlation. Michigan's rampant pass rush was most frequently nerfed when Michigan could not get set up and fire off on the snap.

I spent the first half of this year cautioning about Don Brown's significant year one costs and hoping they would get fixed over the course of the season. They did. Michigan busts dropped to normal levels by midseason, and whatever confusion they suffered they issued as well. That was the case in this game; I still got a bit frustrated at various ??? moments on OSU motion.

The other thing that rankled. OSU's final drive of regulation did not see Michigan solve their problems with aggression. On one level, I get it. You've been dominant, Barrett's rattled, you're up three. It's a situation where caution is called for early. Once OSU hits midfield it's time to get aggressive, especially since Barrett has done so poorly with pressure. Michigan did not amp it up; they rushed four, played zone, and generally abandoned the approach that had seen them dominate three quarters of the game.

I've defended Harbaugh's approach in a number of games this year, and still think the Lloydball stuff from the offense was justified given game contexts. I absolutely do not get Michigan's passivity on the final drive. I mean, I do. I've seen it time and again.  I was hoping for something else.

Mone with a big play. Bryan Mone's hype petered out thanks to an early season injury; when he did play he was unimpressive, which stoked worries for next year. Watching him obliterate an OSU OL to stuff a third and short Weber run was the best and biggest play of his career to date; hopefully he can follow up on that next year.

SPECIAL TEAMS

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[Upchurch]

PUNTAGEDDON. Put Indiana's punter on either of these teams and this is a 20-point game. Instead, Ron Coluzzi battled Ron Coluzzi atop Mount Puntlympus. Kenny Allen averaged 47 yards a kick with a 67-yarder and five punts inside the 20 against just one touchback, that on a super-long punt. OSU got one return in for two yards.

Cameron Johnston matched him with an average of 46 a pop, a long of 60, and one Peppers return for five yards. He also got run into, so he's got that going for him.

I can't wait to see the PFF grades. They might be positive.

They should get rid of running into the kicker. Roughing should stay. Every running into the kicker penalty I've seen is glancing contact that endangers nobody. Most of them feature the punter falling over theatrically. Running into the kicker is like the five-yard facemask penalty they got rid of a few years ago and should meet the same fate.

Jordan Glasgow, special teams, uh, specialist. The aftermath of OSU's fake punt was fascinating, as it quickly became apparent that Urban Meyer told the ESPN crew that they were going to going to run it against a certain Michigan formation no matter what. They got the formation, they ran it, and Jordan Glasgow stoned it. Glasgow set up outside, got off a block, got held, still got off that block, and make a tackle with help from Chris Wormley to turn OSU over on downs.

That was the most spectacular but far from the only excellent special teams play Glasgow's made over the last couple years. He's made a habit of hewing down kick returners. I wouldn't entirely rule him out from playing time on defense next year. 1) Is Glasgow, 2) you don't make that kind of consistent impact on special teams without being able to read a play and take on a block.

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[Barron]

Peppers: quite good. His kick return to Ohio State territory after the pick six might have stood as Michigan's play of the game in the event of a win. Jourdan Lewis had a momentarily dangerous but ultimately unsuccessful KOR of his own on the last play of regulation, and for a second there I thought Peppers was running to get in a pitch relationship with Lewis; instead he blocked a guy.

MISCELLANEOUS

At least we looked good. Can't say the same about OSU's rollerball-ass helmets.

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[Fuller]

This will console me. Yes.

Harbaugh was wrong about the facemask. Michigan was confused about the aftermath of the Cole facemask call, which ended up as a third and five instead of a first and ten. They were forced to call timeout, and Harbaugh got mad, which eventually ended up in that PF.

In this, at least, the refs were correct. The penalty was a live-ball foul. When it's a live-ball foul the ball is placed where it is after the penalty and then you either give or do not give the first down. If it was a dead ball foul, Michigan would have gotten the ball where Smith went out of bounds minus 15 yards and had first and ten. (This remains one of the oddest rules in football.)

I can only assume that Harbaugh thought the personal foul was something unsportsmanlike after the play because he'd never even thought a screen could see an OL attack the facemask of an opponent. I sure as hell didn't believe it until I saw it.

I don't think Michigan should get in the playoff. They are one of the four best teams. That shouldn't be enough. The committee needs to prioritize making regular season games really count or the whole fury of the regular season descends into a tepid simmer. I fully approve of the focus on championships and hope it would take something extraordinary for a non-champ to get in.

I'd go so far as to assert that Ohio State should not get in over Penn State. If Washington, Clemson, PSU, and Bama win their title games the playoff should be Bama, Clemson, Washington, and Penn State, in that order.

HERE

As mentioned, I think Santy's diary on the spot is the best possible analysis of a razor-close call.

Best And Worst:

Worst:  What Do You Think?

I'm broken.  I mean, not in a real sense:  I'm a grown-ass man with two kids, a beautiful wife, a fulfilling career, and my health (largely) still intact.  I don't have to worry about violent uprisings, disease, radioactive mosquitos, or alien invaders.  In the grand scheme of things, I'm doing fine.

But in sports terms, I'm as broken as Jeff Jarrett's guitar.  I guess I should be used to these types of games against OSU, but I'm not.  Games decided by last-second stands, crucial penalties, and terrible officiating are the norm in college sports, but it's only "chaos" when your passive bystander; when it's one of your teams, it's heartbreak.

Sten Carlson tries to offer some perspective:

I am usually not much for "Perspective Posts" after a loss, but in this instance I think it might be helpful.

24 months ago Michigan was sitting at 5-7 overall, and 3-5 in the Big 10.  Let that sink in for a moment ... and if it doesn't, continue reading.

Michigan started out with a hopeful 52-10 blowout of FCS App. St, only to follow it up with an embarassing 31-0 loss to ND in the last game of that storied rivalry.  Following this humilation, Michigan returned home to face the Miami (OH) Redhawks, whom they dispatched 34-10.  Ok, the ND game was an anomoly, just a bad game, we can overcome it, right?  Nope, the Utah Utes march into the Big House and promptly laid a 26-10 beatdown upon our beloved Wolverines.

Just went we thought things could not possibly get any worse, it seemed Hoke (and likely Brandon) had been listening to the fanbase's collective uproar for Shane Morris to replace Devin Gardner, and well ... it did not end well ... a 30-14 loss to Minnesota and of the oldest trophy in college football, Concussion-Gate, and another complete embarassment to the once proud program.

This was rock bottom, right?  Could it get worse than 2-3 and having Concussion-Gate splashed all over the media?  How's about a 26-24 loss to Rutgers (I mean seriously, FUCKING RUTGERS!!!!) in which we make the Scarlet Knights' inept QB look like freakin' Joe Tom Brady Montana as a salve for those wounds?  This HAD to be rock bottom, right?  Sitting at 2-4, and 0-2 in the Big 10, a ray of hope appeared through the clouds as Michigan was (somehow) able to knock off PSU 18-13, in kinda-sorta-not-so-much convincing fashion.  Hail, Hail ... a conference win!

The State of our Open Threads:

Let's start with something that won't shock anyone at all - we reached a season high for "fuck" and indeed, an all-time high for the four seasons that we've been going through this analysis now. No Ohio State game before yesterday, or indeed any game, can say that it resulted in 785 fucks in a game thread. That blows out the previous record, which was the Iowa game a couple week ago. It was also a season-high for shits given at 228, and that is also a high for shits given in the entire time that this analysis has been done. That won't shock anyone, or course - that was the most consequential game we have played in a long time, and I can only imagine the fucks and shits said aloud and off the record. I may have even contributed to the off the record total myself.....a lot.

CFP contenders breakdown. Going to take a lot.

ELSEWHERE

Fuuuuuuuu. Michigan's win expectancy, per S&P+: 83%.

Genuinely Sarcastic has the various ref outrages catalogued. Bill Connelly on the game, if you can go back over it some more. Why the playoff should stick at four. RIP Doug Lesmerises's mentions. PFF grades:

Jekyll and Hyde from Wolverines offense

One of the big questions entering the game was where the Wolverines would generate offensive production from; would they need to play 30 snaps with Jabrill Peppers at quarterback? Ultimately, they didn’t and they exceeded many expectations for their production but came up short in key moments to clinch their victory their performance deserved. Amara Darboh came up with some big catches, including the overtime TD shaking Marshon Lattimore at the line to get open, but he dropped a pair of passes. Similarly, the ground game was nothing more than steady, keeping the Ohio State defense honest but failing to rip off more than one play of ten yards or more. Will this valiant defeat be enough to keep the Wolverines in the playoff picture?

Kyle Kalis and Tyrone Wheatley made the top five with grades of 54. Ugly all around.

Dr. Sap. TTB. Holdin' the Rope:

Never underestimate the rivalry's ability to find that spot, the one that hurts the most. A well-placed nudge to the unsuspecting elicits a yowl, a yelp, a cringing collapse on the floor.

Just when you thought the rivalry couldn't yield a more painful outcome, it did on Saturday, when No. 2 Ohio State bested No. 3 Michigan, 30-27, in double overtime. It was the first overtime game in the history of the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry, and thus presented Michigan with a chance to lose in a new way.

When the game ended, I quietly checked my phone for 10 minutes, taking in reactions from around the internet, positive and negative. But, eventually, I wondered if this game was even worth the consternation.

Hoover Street Rag:

In retrospect, they should have gone for two.  Speight wanted it.  It would have met with widespread approbation, win or lose, like a similar decision three years ago.  The defense was gassed because of the offense, led by the wounded Wilton Speight; one that managed five meager yards in the fourth quarter.  They had just found Amara Darboh in the back of the end zone at the end of the first overtime period.  But they did not, putting the game back on the offense and it nearly worked until Grant Perry was mugged on third down, forcing Michigan to settle for a field goal.

Orange Bowl the current best guess as to the bowl game. FSU or Louisville are potential matchups. Same. Embarrassed? Embarrassing would have been 3-9.

Comments

not TOM BRADY

November 28th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^

I know everyone is upset and should be. But need to remember this is year 2 under Harbaugh. And we took OSU to the brink with majority of the players Harbaugh didn't recruit. Big picture looks really good.

myislanduniverse

November 28th, 2016 at 6:26 PM ^

I would say "beyond the brink." This is a playoff caliber team, and to call the game "controversial" is an understatement.

I'm amazed what Harbaugh has done on two years. This team will be playoff caliber again next year, without a doubt. How many true freshmen played this game?? At least 3, right? And Speight is a RS soph.

Kevin13

November 28th, 2016 at 4:36 PM ^

Again the officiating was horrible. I felt OSU was guilty of 5-6 illegal procedure calls in the game that they never called. Our DL was killing them up front and forced them into jumping early, only the officials refused to make the calls. All the PI calls or non-calls were also horrible and not making the bad call against UM or ignoring the two against OSU could've been the difference in this game as well as calling the illegal procedure calls.

You brought up the drop be Amara. I also remember a bad drop by Butt on a third and 5 when we were around mid field. The pass was low and Jake dropped to his knees and the ball went right through his arms down his stomach and to the ground. I couldn't believe he dropped it. If he makes the catch we have first and ten around the OSU 40 and who knows maybe even a field goal on that drive and we win.

I do agree we don't deserve the playoffs. It has nothing to do with the OSU game, but the loss to Iowa is what killed us. That was a poorly played game on our part and one we should've won by double digits. That loss to me is what will haunt this team with not making the playoffs. We win that and we would've been in......

ca_prophet

November 28th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^

Of course I'm pissed about the missed calls. Tackling guys without the ball should never be legal. But fans complaining about calls won't ever get taken seriously, especially about something like the spot where the result is a matter of millimeters either way. (Harbaugh and the AD might be another story, but I don't know how complaint channels work.)

Refs blowing calls is not under our control (short of designing and advocating for robo-refs*). Our misplays are under our control, and can be fixed, thus I focus on them.

*Maybe a web of sensors on each players uniform, so when a player's facemask gets touched or he gets grabbed outside the numbers it pings the replay board and notes the glove sensor of the grabber? Then the replay booth can take a look. Might slow things down too much if it's anything but face masks, though.

Amutnal

November 28th, 2016 at 4:49 PM ^

The basis for the selection of the conference championship participants is largely do to random geographic circumstance. The perennially shitty big ten west will send usually the 3rd or 4th best team in the conference. So because the big ten east is loaded, it is Gods word that we shouldn't make the playoff as one of the 4 best teams? Or should we question the veracity of the determination of the conference champion itself?




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Ed Shuttlesworth

November 28th, 2016 at 4:57 PM ^

No one with a functioning brain believes that Wisky and Penn State are the B1G's two best teams, rendering this Saturday's "championship" clash just another game.  If one team blows the other out, it's a nice win that should go into their body of work ... but under no circumstances should the game be seen as dispositive of anything.

The "divisions" don't really mean anything real; they're just a gimmick to service the desire to have a revenue-generating "championship game."  The divisions are actually kind of silly and discordant now that we're in the CFP "best 4" era.  (We've actually come full circle since 2006, wherein Michigan suffered by not playing on "championship" weekend while Florida did; in 2016, the two participants are clearly running behind one non-playing team, and likely two.  So much for that idea.)

Ed Shuttlesworth

November 28th, 2016 at 5:08 PM ^

From the CFP website:

What criteria does the selection committee use to rank the teams?

The committee selects the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory) and other relevant factors that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Selection committee members have flexibility to examine whatever data they believe is relevant to inform their decisions. They also review a significant amount of game video. Among the many factors the committee members consider are strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents and conference championships won. The playoff group has retained SportSource Analytics to provide the data platform for the committee’s use. This platform allows the committee members to compare and contrast teams on every level possible. Each member evaluates the data at hand, and then the individuals will vote to produce a group decision.

********************************************

"Conference championships won" is explicitly just one of many factors.

taistreetsmyhero

November 28th, 2016 at 5:11 PM ^

The reason the conference championship shouldn't matter in the big ten this year is that the two teams represented are only there because of technicality and tie-breakers that only function the way they do out of necessity. There is no claim Wisconsin can make to being a top 4 team. PSU at least beat OSU and can claim their loss to Michigan was on the road and with a massively depleted squad and when they are a much better team now. But based on every other single data point, it is crystal clear which two teams are the best in the conference.




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Blow Goo

November 28th, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^

After the MSU fumbled punt and now the whistle-swallowing in The Game, am I the only one here worried that one more "worst thing ever" will shorten Harbaugh's tenure here if it hasn't already in his mind?  Dude's a fighter of the highgest caliber, but if Murphy's law/college football politics strike again next year I have to believe even Harbaugh will start listening to the Colts/Chiefs execs waving trucks of money his way.  

mgobleu

November 28th, 2016 at 6:12 PM ^

Kalis with one of the higher grades surprises... And alarms me. It seemed like whenever there was a protection breakdown, or a sack or a hurried throw, there was Kalis, blocking air while a DT streaked past him. He's a beast, he's strong, but he misses, seemingly a LOT.

The Claw

November 28th, 2016 at 6:38 PM ^

I would like to say the lack of plays in the 4th quarter and the turnovers cost us the game, but I can't get over all missed zebra calls that effected the game so much.

Two pass interference penalties that were missed on third down. It's different if it's 1st or 2nd, you try to compose yourself and get the first. But on 3rd, there is no appeasement. You kick a FG or Punt. It kills momentum or hurts the bottom line. Certainly did in OT.

Also the missed holding calls. The most blatant IMO was on the Samuels side to side run. As he finally decided to go left our guys were pursuing. I believe it was Brown literally had a handful of Jordan Lewis' jersey holding him back from making a tackle. And it worked. Lewis missed Samuels. Now the Ref is watching the whole thing. You can see his back to the camera as Brown has hold of the jersey. It was clear as day. Now I admit those sorts of probably don't get called a lot if it doesn't effect the play. But in this instance, it sure as hell did. Samuel got 4-5 more yards. So the flag needs to come out. They go back ten and don't do anything. They have to kick a much longer FG. Could have made a huge difference on someone who already missed two.

So as much I try to just let it go, the Refs made it impossible.




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NateVolk

November 28th, 2016 at 7:12 PM ^

Brian is one of the greatest writers and thinkers in internet sports coverage. I think this is the greatest fan resource I've ever seen for any sport.

And I have never disagreed with him more than on his take that Michigan shouldn't be in the playoff.

The idea that conference champions should dictate who gets in creates a way scarier future scenario for the sport than the thoughtful dissection of apples to apples resume accomplisments.

If MSU last year proved anything it's this: teams who win in dubious fashion, underperform in the metrics, get a softer league variance schedule, but string together a series of nailbiter wins for a conference championship should be looked at with greater scrutiny. 

Not rubber stamped by virtue of winning the conference title. 

The committee  taking Michigan here would enhance the value of the regular season by weighing their quality wins, head to head, and overall schedule difficulty versus teams with the same record.

That's EXACTLY the right direction for the sport. Too long college foootball rankings and playoffs have coddled teams who have played weak schedules but laid claim to a conference title.

NateVolk

November 28th, 2016 at 7:40 PM ^

Yeah and really here the excluding would be in the name of protecting wanky conference tie breaker systems and those teams who get to load up wins in clearly weaker divisions. Nothing good worth protecting.

There is a big part of me, as a fan who demands excellence of Michigan, who believes in Brian's position. The old "hey if you're that good all you had to do is....." argument.

But Michigan's excellence here is clear. We didn't last second drop by their punter and monsoon defense our way to 3 top ten wins.  

Our defense proved itself to be a level of shutdown rarely seen in the sport on Saturday.

 

NateVolk

November 29th, 2016 at 11:06 AM ^

I keep waiting for someone to point to something objective in the committee's criteria or past statements where a team who wins the conference championship game should be given preference over a better team with the exact same record. 

Let's face it: This is all very new and were all guessing. 

Some of us overvalue division championships and will choose to disparage a great team because tie breakers didn't deliver a division championship. Some of us overvalue head to head and actually being the better team.

I don't think it's a matter of right or wrong.

I am fine with the committee setting a clear precedent either way on the matter. But I figure they'll love the future flexibility selecting Michigan would give them.  

And I think it would be a GREAT precedent. Being better is more important than pulling through based on tie breakers and scheduling quirks.

schreibee

November 29th, 2016 at 2:25 PM ^

I'm a person who tries to rise above using profanity to make a point Rabbit, both on here and in general conversation. But....FUCK THAT!!!

I personally follow college football enough so that if,say, Auburn had lost only a close close game at a theoretically closing strong Tennessee, on a last second FG; then an even closer OT game at Bama on some highly controversial ref calls - I wouldn't point and laugh if they contended they should be in a playoff over clearly inferior teams. Far from it...

IF Washington should lose to Colorado, a team we ended up beating handily even though they appeared to be - and have turned out to be - a terrific team, and we've already also beaten wiscy & psu, WHO is that team with a compelling argument to be included above us in the Final 4?

I believe - because the guy from the CFP who goes on tv every Tuesday says it - that thier mandate is to match the four best teams in a playoff. I'm aware that in the first two playoffs each team was a conference champ, but I don't believe that's mandated. Someone will certainly post the official guidelines on this blog if I'm wrong.

As long as only 4 teams are getting in and there's 5 "Power 5" conferences, to limit it to conference champs is untenable! Add to that I'm pretty certain osu is getting in over the B1G champ, assuming Clemson & Wash both win their conferences, and it becomes completely ridiculous!!!

Gotta get the playoff to 8 teams, and really gotta stop having the games on New Year's Eve! I mean, I'd rather watch football, but how realistic is that for most guys?

uminks

November 28th, 2016 at 7:28 PM ^

Outplayed OSU through most of the game and should have won. It would have been exciting as hell watching them in the B1G championship game, then on to the playoffs. It is too bad the offense went into its 4th QTR shell mode. I'm thinking this is mental and I hope Harbaugh recruits on offense will know how to finish.  Overall it was a great season but our offense was not championship caliber from the OL, RB and QB. We had great WRs and an outstanding TE. Hopefully Harbaugh can build a team that has both a championship  caliber defense along with an offense. This year we were out of phase, we had the championship defense but not the offense. Next years team will be young and fun to watch as they develop through the season but probably not be experienced enough to get the wins for the B1G title. It will probably be 2018 or 2019 before we are an excellent and well balanced team.

rkjjeep

November 28th, 2016 at 8:45 PM ^

The big ten included this in their reprimand:

 

The Big Ten Conference expects all contests involving a member institution to be conducted without compromise to any fundamental element of sportsmanship. 

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

 

I'd say it is the Big Ten doing the compromising.  OSU and Michigan should leave and form the Big Two.  Kick everybody's ass, anywhere, anytime.  

somedude555

November 28th, 2016 at 8:45 PM ^

Why do we keep going after the kicker when Peppers is your return man? At least in critical situations...

 

That flag was a total momentum shift in this game with 2 min left in the half when we just held OSU to another 3 and out (to my memory) and while our offense is rolling.

 

Let Peppers catch that ball at our 30 and run it. Give him an extra blocker instead.

 

Seems like this happened way too often this season.

ricosuave

November 28th, 2016 at 9:10 PM ^

We were the slightly better team on Saturday.  If that game was in A2 with just ok officiating, we win by 14 or more.  I will say this, it is fun to be good again.

umchicago

November 28th, 2016 at 9:10 PM ^

please please do an analysis of the missed penalties.  ie. 50/50 calls like the 4th down spot vs 100% terrible missed calls like the perrry PI, darbo PI; various jumped snaps and holding, etc.

i would love to see a detailed play-by-play on that.

UMForLife

November 28th, 2016 at 10:49 PM ^

I am not sure I like the idea of conference champions get in. So, if Alabama loses, they will be out? Not sure if I agree with that. If all it is is conference champions then why bother with regular season ooc games. I know Brian is not saying give it to a 4 loss team, but not sure if I agree with the conference champion model when the divisions are not balanced.

huntmich

November 28th, 2016 at 11:21 PM ^

Anyone else starting to feel like the pre-2016 cubs of the college football world?  Loveable losers, always coming up just short.

 

Ah well.  This season is better than last season, which was better than the one before it.  Keep your eyes on the horizons Wolverines.  Our day will come yet.

 

Oh, and they shoulda fucking gone for 2.