Hoops Preview: Texas
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#41 Michigan (8-3) at #26 Texas (6-2) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Frank Erwin Center Austin, Texas |
WHEN | 9 pm ET, Tuesday |
LINE |
Texas -5 (KenPom) Texas -5 (Bovada) |
TV |
ESPN2 PBP: Dan Shulman Analyst: Dick Vitale |
Right: Goodness gracious, Mo Bamba.
THE US
While UCLA put a quality win feather in Michigan's tournament resumé cap, there's still work to be done, especially since the Big Ten, uh, kinda sucks? The B1G is currently projected as a three-bid league by stat guru Bart Torvik—and that's with Maryland as one of the last four teams in the field. Michigan State and Purdue are the only locks.
In such a conference down year, it'd be very nice to add another resumé-boosting victory in non-conference play, and Texas represents M's final chance at doing so. According to Torvik's team forecast tool, a victory tonight would take Michigan from the projected sixth team out of tournament to in the field, albeit as a First Four team. That's a huge jump from one game.
Given the short turnaround (and a flight to Texas) from Saturday's UCLA game, I wouldn't expect to see major changes to the rotation yet. After this game, however, the team has a few tune-ups before conference play, and that's when we could see some major experimentation. I'll have much more on how that could shake out later this week; tonight's game will provide a critical extra data point for guys like Jordan Poole and Isaiah Livers.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 2 | Matt Coleman | Fr. | 6'2, 180 | 74 | 16 | 108 | Yes | |||||||||||
Low-usage distributor, not much of a scoring threat. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 10 | Eric Davis | Jr. | 6'3, 190 | 43 | 17 | 98 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Three-point specialist in prolonged slump: 26% over last season-plus. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 12 | Kerwin Roach | Jr. | 6'4, 180 | 69 | 19 | 121 | Yes | |||||||||||
P&R threat who's extremely effective at rim. Doesn't often shoot from anywhere else. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 21 | Dylan Osetkowski | Jr. | 6'9, 245 | 70 | 27 | 103 | Yes | |||||||||||
Excellent rebounder, decent post scorer, will slide to center. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 4 | Mo Bamba | Fr. | 6'11, 225 | 59 | 21 | 105 | Very | |||||||||||
Tremendous rebounder and rim protector. Scores mostly via putbacks and cuts. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 20 | Jericho Sims | Fr. | 6'9, 240 | 39 | 16 | 89 | Very | |||||||||||
Decent cleanup guy, but turnover-prone and bad FT shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 3 | Jacob Young | So. | 6'2, 185 | 24 | 19 | 127 | No | |||||||||||
Efficient scorer vs. bad teams, hasn't played much vs. good teams. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 1 | Andrew Jones (inj.) | So. | 6'4, 195 | 62 | 26 | 119 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Leading scorer, best shooter, quality defender out with hand injury. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Texas is a young, big team featuring future top-five pick Mo Bamba at center. Bamba is pretty representative of this team as a whole: great on defense, still figuring things out offensively. Bamba is already one of very best shot-blockers and rebounders in the country; most of his points come off putbacks or dumpoff passes from a guard—he's not a refined post scorer, which is a relief.
Bamba forms a formidable frontcourt duo with junior Dylan Osetkowski, a true power forward who'll also soak up many of the minutes at center when Bamba's on the bench. While not a rim protector, Osetkowski is a good rebounder and decent post scorer; while he hasn't been remarkably efficient, he's taking on a huge volume of shots, and he's skilled enough that he attempts to shoot threes (those haven't gone so well, however).
We may see the offense run through Osetkowski even more than usual. The reasons are two-fold. For one, Duncan Robinson qualifies as an advantageous matchup for Texas. For two, the Longhorns are without leading scorer Andrew Jones after he fractured his wrist against VCU on Wednesday. Jones is a massive loss. He's a high-volume scorer and the team's only consistent three-point threat, and he's arguably their best perimeter defender too. Using Hoop Lens, I pulled the on/off stats for Jones in Texas's four games against quality competition, and he sure seems important:
A swing from +0.05 PPP to -0.10 PPP is substantial, to say the least, and while sample size caveats apply that's about a full game's worth of data with Jones off the court. If Texas can't overwhelm Michigan on the boards, it's hard to see where they get their points. That said, take another look at Bamba; getting overwhelmed on the boards is a distinct possibility.
The other scoring threat of note is wing Kerwin Roach, who's been Texas's best pick-and-roll ball-handler by some distance. He's a solid passer when driving and a remarkably good finisher at the rim: he's 32-for-41 on two-pointers this season. He's just a 30% career three-point shooter; it's get to the hoop or bust for him.
The other guards don't present major threats. Freshman point guard Matt Coleman is a low-usage distributor who doesn't turn the ball over much but also doesn't really threaten to score—he's making 37% of his twos and 28% of his threes despite being selective with his shots. Junior guard and Michigan native Eric Davis, who I'm guessing will draw into the starting five with Davis out, drilled 38% of his threes as a freshman and since has shot only 26% from beyond the arc. He's mostly Just A Shooter™, so he's not adding a whole lot at the moment.
THE RESUME
Both of UT's losses are quite understandable; each came in overtime in wild games against top-ten teams (Duke and Gonzaga) in the PK80 tourney. They defeated #49 Butler comfortably to open that tourney. The Longhorns are coming off a victory over a common opponent, VCU, by four points on the road; that's about equal to Michigan beating VCU by eight in Maui. Notably, all of this came with Jones in the lineup. We've yet to see what Texas looks like without him.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Small sample size caveats apply.
The Longhorns boast a suffocating defense centered on Bamba's shot-blocking ability. With him dissuading most attempts to even get into the paint, quality looks are tough to come by. Texas is sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency, 37th in two-point defense, 17th in three-point defense, and 57th in turnover rate.
Even with Jones in the lineup, UT has really struggled to shoot from beyond the arc. They've cobbled together a decent offense by avoiding turnovers, getting plenty of second-chance buckets, and drawing lots of fouls. Oh, and being really efficient on two-pointers, because LOOK AT THAT PICTURE OF BAMBA AGAIN.
THE KEYS
Test Osetkowski's defense. I don't think John Beilein is going to break out a two-big lineup on such a short turnaround, though this would be far from the first time I've been wrong about something. Instead, I think Michigan's best approach is to try to Beilein-ball Texas; hopefully Duncan Robinson can start making his threes, but if those aren't falling, I wouldn't mind seeing Charles Matthews at the four and have the offense try to draw both UT bigs away from the hoop with the ball screen game.
Contain Roach. Without Jones in the lineup, I'm expecting Roach to take over a lot of the ballhandling duties. He's an explosive athlete and great finisher at the rim, and he's also a decent passer in ball screen situations. With a lack of shooting threat on the floor for UT, Michigan should stop the drive first and foremost; Roach's drives have been far more productive than UT's non-Jones outside shooting this season. In general, I wouldn't mind seeing Michigan send lots of help at Roach, Osetkowski, and Bamba; doubling can force turnovers and get M easy transition buckets against a team that's tough to score on in the halfcourt, and it's unlear if UT has the firepower to make M pay for that approach.
If man doesn't work, go zone? Dylan had the same thought in his preview, probably because we're looking at the same numbers: Texas has faced a fair amount of zone this year and hasn't handled it well, with an eFG% of only 44.8. Open three-point looks are the main weakness of a 2-3, and again, Texas is missing its only reliable outside shooter. This could be a real option if Michigan is having trouble stopping Roach off the dribble or they want to more easily send help at the bigs.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Texas by 5.
Remember, I've taken a vow not to tempt the KenPom gods. Michigan is going to have to find a way to hide Duncan Robinson (or Isaiah Livers, who's still finding his way on defense) against a mismatch. I'm worried Michigan can't handle UT's size on the boards. Texas is also coming off a week of rest while the Wolverines played an emotional overtime game on Saturday before hopping on a plane. Jones's injury gives Michigan an edge they didn't expect to have but this will still be a tough game.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. Burnt Orange Nation's Jeff Haley with an in-depth look at UT's point guard situation and how they use Roach in the ball screen.
December 12th, 2017 at 3:16 PM ^
December 12th, 2017 at 3:28 PM ^
I like this tip off for college. GF will be struggling to stay awake by then.
December 12th, 2017 at 5:32 PM ^
December 12th, 2017 at 3:19 PM ^
Based on how things have been going against the team so far, I wouldn't be surprised if Eric Davis ended his 3pt slump.
December 12th, 2017 at 3:22 PM ^
December 12th, 2017 at 3:28 PM ^
in sync he's going to be nightmarishly good. Fortunately, by then he'll be in the NBA.
December 12th, 2017 at 6:05 PM ^
December 12th, 2017 at 3:28 PM ^
Michigan's defense is better than their offense
W T F
December 12th, 2017 at 4:24 PM ^
I've had my eye on that since after the game against UCLA, when it was the inverse (44th offense and 46th defense). I was curious if the D would pass the O against Texas, but whatever happened with our opponents in the last two days pushed the D ahead, it appears.
I wondered if this has ever bee the case under Belien, and turns out 3 of his first 4 teams finished with a better defense than offense.
His first season had more to do with the offense being terrible than the defense being any good (1st year 162 on offense, 129th on defense, the worst for both under Beilien) and his third year the offense was just bad (101st) and defense mediocre (59th).
Year four, we were actually pretty good in both (39th offense and 37th defense). That season remains tied with the national title game team as the highest ranked defense under Belien.
If that doesn't indicate how important effort and focus is for defense, I don't know of a better example:
A defense led by Stu Douglas, Zack Novak and Jordan Morgan was as good as one led by Trey Burke, Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary.
December 12th, 2017 at 11:40 PM ^
Beilein. "E" before "I" both times.
December 12th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
Why don't we make the whole coaching staff out of Don Brown?
December 12th, 2017 at 4:51 PM ^
December 12th, 2017 at 3:32 PM ^
December 12th, 2017 at 3:46 PM ^
I'd love to see how Ace would sum up our own situation. Can this be found somewhere on the site?
December 12th, 2017 at 4:03 PM ^
that the B1G gets more than 3 teams into the NCAA Tournament?
December 12th, 2017 at 6:06 PM ^
isn't even saying we're expected to be a three bid league, from a statistical perspective. He's just saying that if the tourney started today, that's how it would shake out.
The statistical expectation is more like 4 or 5 since there are several knocking on the door (Minn, Mich, OSU), and it's likely two or three of those teams plus Maryland and PSU make it.
If you could find a market for that bet, you probably wouldn't get good odds.
December 12th, 2017 at 4:06 PM ^
The picture at the top may give me nightmares.
December 12th, 2017 at 4:22 PM ^
Based on the fact this is Texas' first game without their best player (Andrew Jones), I think this presents a prime opportunity to steal one from the Longhorns on their home court.. It's never easy adjusting to losing one of your best players.. Think that could be the deciding factor in the game.. who will pick up the slack in the Texas offense? I like UM to win this outright tonight. Just have to hope Texas doesnt fall off after and remains a quality win all season.
December 12th, 2017 at 4:07 PM ^
December 12th, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
make some damn free throws.
December 12th, 2017 at 4:36 PM ^
and especially not both in the same game.
The nature of the threes they're taking are not like the one they took to get their career averages where they currently sit.
MAAR especially this year is taking a lot more contested threes off the dribble (to my eye) and that's why he's shooting closer to his freshman year levels - another year in which he had to be a primary creator and didn't have someone breaking down defenses to get him easy spot-up looks.
Duncan is somewhat in the same boat. Unless Mattews really takes over (and I think it could happen as I hope we go more Pick and Roll heavy between him and Mo with the others spotting up), it's going to be hard for Duncan and MAAR to get near their high water marks.
December 12th, 2017 at 6:41 PM ^
I disagree, I see them both bricking wide open catch and shoot threes and can't remember a single three off the dribble for anyone since Walton left.
December 12th, 2017 at 11:37 PM ^
some of their threes are open and anyone will miss some of those, even the majority of those. But the quality of their looks have not been as good overall as they were last year. I can't find full game highlights for this season, but if I had any, I'd show you.
MAAR is averaging 4.5 attempted threes per game this season. It was fewer than 3 last year. That's a 50% increase despite only getting 16% more minutes.
If you think that extra 1.5 (and even some of the first 3) is of the same quality as the 3 he was getting last year (when he could be more selective), that's not what I'm seeing. His shots are not, on average, as quality as they were last year when he was the 5th option whom defenses didn't key on as much.
EDIT: And if you watched the Texas game, you saw MAAR had two late clock chucks, a three off the dribble, and good corner three in which he was wide open and someone found him (first basket of the game for M). That's a high degree of difficulty on four shots. He banked one of the late clock heaves to go 50% but that's the mix of threes that gets you to 30% when you're not Steph Curry.
December 12th, 2017 at 7:48 PM ^
No, Robinson is missing open looks
December 12th, 2017 at 4:13 PM ^
So Mo Bamba will have a double-double easily by half time, probably 10 offensive rebounds alone, yikes.
December 12th, 2017 at 4:20 PM ^
The one time (so apply your sample size caveats) I've watched Texas this year, I thought Mamba struggled with defending the ball screen. He was always in between staying on the hedge long enough and bailing early, never really getting the timing down.
Therefore, I don't think we should go double big. Force Bamba to run through all the ball screen with Wagner. Pick and pop, pump fake and drive... Mo is a unique talent that can get Bamba in foul trouble.
Livers will certainly need to come in and bang a bit. But the moment you go with Teske, you allow Bamba to sit around and protect the rim. I'm betting Beilein mirrors Teske's minutes with Bamba's bench minutes.
December 12th, 2017 at 4:45 PM ^
we need someone that can hit the pull up three off the pick and roll. It's probably not Matthews (screeners guy isn't scared of him pulling up and plays off), hoped it could have been Simmons like he did at OU, but alas...it's down to Eli Brooks, probably. Or maybe Poole develops his PnR game.
But that's how our offense was so deadly even with Jmo playing the pick and roll. Trey and Stauskas were both threats to hit the pull up three, which meant Jmo's guy had to hedge hard and he could roll for the easy deuce. Teske needs that (even though we've still been pretty good on offense with him in there because he's a good finisher and great offensive rebounder).
December 12th, 2017 at 4:22 PM ^
Does Texas run Smart's havoc full court press or did he leave that behind at VCU?
We shredded it in the past with guys like Trey Burke, will be interesting to see how our young PGs handle the pressure.
December 12th, 2017 at 4:26 PM ^
Important game for sure. Does the team ride the wave of the UCLA win and begin building something special? Let's hope so. If this team can play defense for 40 mins and clean up its free throw shooting, I like our chances this year.
December 12th, 2017 at 4:45 PM ^
That picture looks like he's going to get his deodorant on the rim
December 12th, 2017 at 5:07 PM ^
Let's ride that wave from the UCLA game - keep playing with energy! Beilein's teams always seem to do well against Chaka Smart teams and if Michigan can hit shots, board and not turn the ball over this could go their way. Texas is a tough team and they're going to be good. Steal this win tonight!
December 12th, 2017 at 5:51 PM ^
December 12th, 2017 at 5:54 PM ^
In this one. Let it fly boys. POOLE
December 12th, 2017 at 5:56 PM ^
As it seems lately Michigan sports team never compete well on the road ..Im hoping that the comeback win though may MAY propel them to a win tonight..Depends on if Duncan Robinson can make ANY shot and Michigan can make ANY free throws
December 12th, 2017 at 6:43 PM ^
This seems like a very winnable game as long as we crowd the paint on defense and make ~35% of 3s on offense.
December 12th, 2017 at 7:07 PM ^
December 13th, 2017 at 12:46 AM ^
December 12th, 2017 at 8:08 PM ^
December 12th, 2017 at 8:27 PM ^
Now, I just wish Dan Dakich could do all of our games on ESPN...and BTN for that matter.
December 12th, 2017 at 8:46 PM ^
Will there be any Ole Miss recruits at the game?
December 12th, 2017 at 9:00 PM ^
Now I have to listen to ACC slappies call a B10 vs B12 game. I was just starting to get used to not hearing how the ACC is the best conference in Basketball and Coach K is a saint when watching a game.
December 13th, 2017 at 9:31 AM ^
Nice win by the boys. If they go .500 in the conference they will be safely in the dance. They have some nice Out of Confernece wins and an opportunity to get many more down the road. Their RPI is now at 23 after last nights game, so this team is heading in the right direction.
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