THE ESSENTIALS

obligatory

THE US

It's seeding crunch time for Michigan, and here is a massive opportunity: a QUADRANT ONE GAME at home that they're actually favored in, albeit narrowly. This is the first of three Q1 opportunities Michigan has to close out the season and its most manageable, because of college basketball's home/road refereeing split.

As far as the team goes, your top story is Duncan Robinson May Have Made A Deal With The Devil And We're Fine With That. After a senior year spent mostly scuffling, Robinson is 10/15 from three in his last two games, and paired that with excellent defense against Iowa's Tyler Cook. A version of Michigan that has a 42% from three Duncan Robinson is a much more threatening one.

And if Charles Matthews could get off the mat at the same time... I mean, probably not. But maybe!

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

I SEE YOU. I KNOW WHAT YOU'RE DOING. [Patrick Barron]

It's good to see the put-upon Ohio State athletic department have a plucky team emerge from the depths of disappointment and exceed expectations wildly. If there's any fanbase in need of a pick-me-up, it's these guys.

The main engine of this one-year turnaround is woulda-coulda-shoulda Michigan player Keita Bates-Diop, who's emerged into a national star as a junior. Bates-Diop isn't much of an assist guy but it's hard to find any other holes in his game statistically. He's at 81/57/37 shooting splits on big-time usage—31% of OSU shots. He doesn't turn the ball over despite generating most of his two point shots himself, he's a DREB vacuum, and his 6.0 block rate is top 150 nationally. These latter two stats allow him to play the 5 for a few minutes a game; for the rest of his heavy minutes he's an ideal Beilein four in every imaginable way. You are permitted a deep sigh at this point.

OSU's shallow bench means that three other guys are carrying a heavy-ish usage load. Center Kaleb Wesson is the most threatening since he's likely to get a lot of one on one time against Mo Wagner. Wesson has an absurdly low TO rate for a big that creates a lot of his own shots (11%, top 150 nationally); he draws buckets of fouls and converts 75% of his FTs; he's an excellent 2PJ shooter. He's hitting 58% of his twos overall, and he's a top 20 OREB guy nationally.

His Achilles heel is a 5.4 foul rate per 40, which limits him to half of OSU's minutes. He also might be a bit vulnerable in this matchup: at 270 he's not the kind of laterally agile big who tends to give Mo Wagner trouble. He's also not much of a rim protector. On offense, though... yeah.

6'4" power forward Jae'Sean Tate remains Jae'Sean Tate. He pounds the ball to the rim and converts there at a 69% rate. He's become a decent two point J shooter as his career has ground on, but his year-on-year slide in OREB rate got much worse this year. He's fallen from a double-digit guy as a freshman (at 6'4"!) to just 4.6% this year. That might be a philosophical shift under a new coach—OSU does have solid transition defense. Tate's got a meaningful assist rate, which is weird but here we are.

PG CJ Jackson is fairly middling: good assist rate, a bit too prone to turnovers, 46/38 shooting splits, decent FT rate and 81% conversion there. He has to create 80% of his twos, and a bunch of those are late—he struggles a great deal late in the clock. He is not an unassisted 3 threat, and that's a team-wide trend. Basically every OSU three is assisted.

Kam Williams is the lone starter in the role player category, and this is because he is allergic to the rim. Only 11% of his shots are there, and the rest of his stats follow from that: no turnovers, no free throws, no assists. He is Just A Shooter even if a little more than half his shots come from two. He's an excellent Just A Shooter, hitting 44% both from deep and on 2PJs. There are zero consequences for running him off the line, though, so Michigan's 3PA D will hopefully mute his impact. You can live with 44% on twos with no fouls. Not so much on threes.

Ohio State's bench consists of a solid backup for Wesson and some guys really really trying to stay out of the way. Sophomore Micah Potter replicates Wesson's absurd-for-a-post TO rate, offensive rebounding, and free throw shooting; he's not quite as high-usage or efficient as a shooter, and his FT rate is half of Wesson's. There's not much of a dropoff, though, and stylistically it'll be exactly the same.

Michigan grad transfer Andrew Dakich gets nearly 20 minutes a game but only gets 8% of OSU's shots when he's on the floor. Nearly a third of his usage consists of turnovers. When he does get a shot off it's going well, with 58/48 splits.

The other two guys are similar, and any usage they get will be a gift. (Unless it's not. Hi, Isaiah Washington.) Andre Wesson and Musa Jallow both take a majority of their shots from three, where they hit 27% collectively. Neither gets to the line; both have TO rates around 30%. Jallow does generate the odd shot at the rim that he converts at a solid rate... but these guys have 84 and 89 ORTGs.

Finally, freshman stretch PF Kyle Young is getting about 8 minutes a game. He's hitting 61% from two but a lot of turnovers and 1/9 from three drag his ORTG under 100. He is an OREB threat.

THE TEMPO-FREE

OSU's offense has a lot of good components but settles down into "pretty good" instead of great because they don't have a real standout aspect. Their two point shooting (25th) is near-elite but they don't shoot many threes and are just average at hitting them so their eFG is 43rd. They're good-not-great at preventing TOs; they're an average OREB outfit; they're average at getting to the line.

They are excellent at hitting FTs and preventing blocks and steals, which helps explain their good transition D.

Meanwhile their defense is 14th nationally. OSU does not get a ton of turnovers, but their eFG D is good, they're a near-elite DREB team, and they don't put people on the line much. The pattern of their defense might be an advantage for Michigan, though: they don't really want to go to the line and 41% of opposition shots are threes. Michigan should have a big advantage in three point attempts.

THE KEYS

Make a bunch of threes. They should be there. Michigan was 8 of 28 in the first edition of this game, 28%. That's probably just randomness since OSU gives up a bunch and yields an average percent.

Know who you can help off of. OSU's usually going to have two guys on the floor who are questionable three point shooters. Laying off those guys to jam passing lanes and help shore up Michigan's wonky two point D is likely to be a worthy tradeoff. OSU hit 55% from two in December.

Maintain possession advantage. Michigan was +7 in the last game, holding OSU to just 6 OREBs.

Don't get boned by TV Teddy and company. FTs in the December game were 29-14. Closing that gap down, which is hopefully possible since it's a home game, would go a long way.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.