nba

When I was putting together last week's mailbag, Brian forwarded along a question that both hit a topic I've wanted to cover for a while and required an extensive answer.

This seems so counterintuitive...wonder if college vs pro is different due to quality of shooters at pro level. @mgoblog https://t.co/H4L8lTxynY

— Peter Joseph (@PetejoeUM) April 28, 2020

The best defenses in the NBA this year, by and large, are allowing opponents to let fly from three-point range, which goes against the popular recent trend at all levels of basketball—prioritizing guarding the perimeter to help gain an advantage in three-point attempts.

Since John Beilein brought in Billy Donlon and then Luke Yaklich to be his de facto defensive coordinator, Michigan has been among the very best in the country at limiting outside shots, finishing in the top ten in 3PA/FGA the last four seasons. While that approach helped produce top-three overall defenses in 2017-18 and '18-19, the defense took a step back to 28th—not bad, but not elite—in Juwan Howard's first year.

While there were transition costs that helped explain the defensive dropoff, is there a better way to play on that end? Today, I'm going to look at the NBA's trend and whether it applies to college basketball. In my next post, I'll break down what it all means for Michigan and whether Howard's time with the Miami Heat signals that a change is coming.

Talkin' Bout The Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks were the best team in the NBA in this thus far abbreviated season, going 53-12 with by far the league's best point differential. Having reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the league's ninth-ranked offense (by offensive rating) will make a team quite good on its own. What has made the Bucks great, however, is their historically good defense, which ranks nearly four full points per 100 possessions better than the second-best in the NBA.

They've accomplished this even though three-point attempts make up 41.1% of opponent attempts, the third-highest rate in the league. Even when accounting for their great defensive personnel, it's clear coach Mike Budenholzer's tactics play a huge part in their success. Above all else, Milwaukee wants to ensure that opponents don't get a clean look near the rim, and by packing the paint they've become remarkably effective at doing so.

Milwaukee's defense allowed a league-low 29.1% of field goal attempts to come within six feet of the basket, and the gap between them and the #2 team was equal to the gap between #2 and #7. Opponents made only 50.7% of these shots, a ludicrous figure—the #2 team was at 57.3% and the league average if you remove the Bucks was 61.2%. 

nothing at the rim, ever. [via Mike Prada]

The clip above features one small window where it appears there's a quality look but even that is by design. Number eight in white, Moe Harkless, is a 32% career three-point shooter even though he's mostly taken catch-and-shoot attempts in quality offenses. As the great Mike Prada explained in December, it's all part of the strategy:

Allowing three-pointers doesn’t seem smart, but the Bucks do and still have the best defense in the league. Last year, 36.3 percent of opponent shots were threes, the highest mark in the league. This year, 38.7 percent of them are threes, which is third behind Toronto and Miami. In exchange for turning the rim into a fortress, the Bucks leave the three-point line comparatively unattended. They have transferred all power into the rear deflector shields, so to speak.

Why does this strategy work so well? One reason is that the Bucks allow “good” threes, to the degree that any team can control them. They rank closer to the middle of the pack in corner threes yielded, which are more dangerous, and instead allow the most above-the-break attempts in the league. They specialize in surrendering the semi-open 26-footer from an average stretch big man rather than the in-rhythm corner pop from whiplash ball movement that began with dribble penetration.

(Prada was furloughed by Vox/SBNation and has started his own newsletter. If you're into basketball tactics written for a broad audience, it's greatly recommended.)

There are times when you'll see all five Milwaukee defenders positioned below the free-throw line to stop a drive. Yes, the ballhandler can kick it back out to the top of the key, but firing it to the corner is much more difficult in that scenario. This results in a defense that gives up inefficient looks on average despite so many of them being three-pointers. There are other benefits, too. Here's The Ringer's Zach Kram discussing if the Bucks have the best defense in history:

Cleaning the Glass calculates a stat called “location effective field goal percentage” that asks “if this team allowed the league average FG% from each location, what would their opponents’ effective FG% be?,” which then “gives us a sense of the efficiency of a team’s defensive shot profile.” The Bucks rank third in this metric, narrowly behind Utah and Brooklyn—meaning they would still profile as an elite defense even if they didn’t also have the best defenders at altering shots at the moment of firing. Budenholzer’s game plan works.

A rim-centric defensive philosophy affords the Bucks more advantages than merely forcing opponents into lower-percentage shots; fewer shots near the basket mean fewer realistic opportunities for the opponent to draw a whistle or grab an offensive rebound. The Bucks don’t foul often, with the fourth-lowest opponent free throw rate, and they’re on pace for the best defending rebounding season in NBA history, with Giannis leading the league in defensive rebounds per game.

Milwaukee has elite defenders, but other than Giannis, the main figures weren't necessarily regarded as such until they played for the Bucks—twins Brook and Robin Lopez, for example, are the second- and third- best rim defenders in the league by shot percentage behind, naturally, Giannis. Brook, who's been a revelation as a drop coverage specialist that stonewalls drivers with verticality, was a league-average defender until becoming a top-ten player on that end the last two seasons by most any advanced metric. That directly coincides with his time in Milwaukee.

The Bucks are unique in having Giannis, who's responsible for taking their defense from great to historic. Their success in this approach isn't an isolated case, however. Here are the top ten defenses this season along with their rank in 3PA/FGA:

	Defensive Efficiency	Def. Efficiency Rank	Opponent 3-PT Rate	Opp. 3-PT Rate Rank
Milwaukee	101.6	1	41.1	3
Toronto	104.9	2	43.6	1
LA Lakers	105.5	3	37.7	17
Boston	106.2	4	39.9	7
LA Clippers	106.6	5	39.0	9
Philadelphia	107.6	6	33.8	29
Indiana	107.7	7	37.5	18
Brooklyn	108.3	8	37.1	21
Oklahoma City	108.4	9	36.8	24
Orlando	108.7	10	38.6	13

Four of the top five defenses are also in the top ten by highest opponent three-point rate. There's one defense in here—Philadelphia's—that's an extreme three-point prevention squad and there are two more in the bottom ten of opponent three-point rate. While both approaches can be successful, the very top tier of defenses are taking Milwaukee's approach. (Or they have LeBron James and Anthony Davis.)

[Hit THE JUMP to see how this applies to college ball.] 

The Prompt:

Isaiah Todd’s decision came down to money: a G League team was able to offer over the table, the kind of scratch even schools that bag can't cobble together. If that’s how it’s gonna be, how would this affect college basketball?

Matt EM: Talked to my spectrum guy—looks like G League deals are now going in excess of 200k annually. Essentially it looks like the wheels are in motion for college athletics to cease in its current form or all the top 50 or so kids will go G league or overseas. 75k is one one thing, but 200-300k is no longer chump change.

It looks like the CBB product is going to be one big melting pot of mid major basketball at some point unless things change soon. The product is declining every year.

Anthony Ciatti: I figured this would happen once they got the G League to a place where it was developing players. It makes too much sense to be able to develop your players the way you want and the additional expense seems to be worth it. I have wondered if they will ever try to go to academy system and start at 16 instead of 18.

Matt EM: Word is Jalen Green is getting close to 500k for G League. If that's the new standard, CBB is effectively over.

Seth: Or CBB could just pay the guys that much. Because they are a larger operation with more fans and more money.

[After THE JUMP: What happens to college basketball if the Dooks can't Dook?]

Welcome to our roundtable article, where the staff of MGoBlog talks about whatever's going on in the Michigan world. Today it's the destruction of civilization and everything in it worth keeping. It has swear words in it.

THIS FEATURE HAS A SPECIAL SPONSOR JUST FOR TODAY

Say, you know who can get you a quick and painless mortgage and isn't Dan f'ing Gilbert? Matt Demorest of HomeSure Lending. But this other company who just stole Beilein from me will also be my real estate agent you say? Well Matt can now do that too! He'll also handle your loan personally, get you through the parts that can get really complicated, and is not, to my knowledge, some Spartan who recently swooped in to steal the Hall of Fame coach of your favorite basketball team just to stick it to you. Matt wouldn't do that. He just moved into a new office at 2100 S. Main Street--in shouting distance of Crisler Arena—and people in the neighborhood would probably really hate him if he did something like that.

-------------------------------------------

sits silently, occasionally forgetting to breathe

Alex: They better hire from outside the family.

Seth: Maybe we need to establish real quick what words are appropriate on MGoBlog.

BiSB: FUCK FUCK FUCKITY FUCK

Brian: We're PG-13 so this would be an appropriate...

Seth: Well FUCK.

Ace: The worst(?) part is the Cavs fucking suck. And they’re owned by Dan Gilbert! Collin Sexton is the living embodiment of every Beilein nightmare about a point guard!

Alex: Beilein must have just wanted to leave. The Pistons job was a better one.

Ace: I have to agree with Alex after reading the Woj article.

Brian: My wife just moaned "oh I'm so sorry" and seems physically hurt. She doesn't even care about sports.

Ace: The lottery is Tuesday night. As in tomorrow.

Beilein didn't want to move himself and his wife far from Michigan, and the Pistons' borderline playoff roster with little financial flexibility to make changes made staying in-state less appealing. Cleveland's rebuild status, with point guard Collin Sexton and a 14 percent chance -- along with New York and Phoenix -- to earn the No. 1 pick in Tuesday's NBA draft lottery appealed to Beilein.

One would think knowing whether that 14% chance at Zion pays off would be rather important!

Unless, as Alex mentioned, Beilein was ready to go.

Alex: It’s one of the worst jobs in the NBA.

Seth: AND HE HAS TO WORK FOR DAN GILBERT.

Ace: Who famously never holds onto anyone for a long time, even LeBron.

Seth: I live in Metro-Detroit. I don't know a single happy person working for Dan Gilbert.

Alex: There’s a strong, strong chance he gets fired without making the playoffs (although I guess you can get to the eight seed in the east with a buttcheeks team, as we’ve seen very recently).

Brian: They have Kevin Love until he's 86 and their main asset is the fact they have a bunch of contracts that are up in two years, so they can go... woo free agents to Cleveland?

Alex: It’s pretty close to a blank slate.

Brian: Which worked once in the very specific case of Lebron.

BiSB: (I'd like to also point out that the Pistons being Not-Terrible for the first time in a while actually HURT them, which... damn that's really Pistons).

Alex: They might have to attach assets to get rid of Love.

Ace: Barring Zion, and even with him, it’s an extremely tough path. The rest of the draft kinda sucks, too. Cavs can’t really take Ja Morant.

Alex: Zion is probably going to spend multiple years in the wilderness whether it’s Cleveland or somewhere else.

Seth: The only mindset I can possibly square this with is "I'm the greatest basketball coach alive and I can bring my coaching greatness to win with coaching in Cleveland and retire a god," which is a very sports coach mindset.

Brian: Maybe he just did this so he can draft Poole third overall.

Alex: The only mindset I can think of is “I want to leave Ann Arbor now.”

Ace: This probably doesn’t say great things about how he feels about next year’s team.

Seth: I like my Beilein as Daenerys theory better than Brian's Beilein as Michigan Basketball Twitter theory.

GoT apologists: "Beilein has been dropping hints that he'll leave on a Monday in May to coach Cleveland for 8 seasons!"

Ace: If he thinks he can win it all here, I have to think he takes another shot.

Brian: I don't even know man. Even if he doesn't love the outlook for 2019-20 if he wants a title over the next five years Michigan is 10000% more likely to do so than Cleveland

Alex: Well, next year’s team wasn’t going to win it all, but it was going to be a good team.

Seth: *extremely naïve young child voice* Maybe he just thinks Yaklich is ready?

Alex: That’s the thing: what’s the ceiling for him in Cleveland?

Ace: Sure but the NBA is a new challenge and he’s accomplished everything at the NCAA level except a national championship.

Alex: Working for a dipshit owner and drafting in the lottery every season until he gets fired in December after starting 5-22?

Brian: Kind of a big "except"

Ace: Fair, but he’s still staring down “greatest coach in program history” or “greatest coach in program history.”

Brian: I simply cannot fathom this decision and will never be able to. It is beyond me.

[After THE JUMP: There are crazier ideas]