jacob truscott

CLICK HERE for Game Recap from Kristy McNeil and other pertinent information and HERE for current Pairwise Rankings.

What just happened (TL;DR): Michigan just bounced Michigan State in their first ever NCAA Tournament meeting, sealing the Wolverines THIRD STRAIGHT Frozen Four appearance. After an unlucky bounce in an evenly played first period, Ethan Edwards tied the game at one via an odd man rush in the second. Heading into the third period, all tied at one, Michigan re-upped their best third period of the season by beating Trey Augustine FOUR times in the final 14 minutes. Dylan Duke earned Most Outstanding Player of the Regional on the back of his game-winning and game-sealing goals to go with his earlier assist. Jake Barczewski was also absolutely nails once again. Oh, and Frank Nazar had the Assist of the Year. See below!

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS (www.collegehockeynews.com)

Forward Notes.

-Michigan and Michigan State played a very even game through two periods with Michigan probably getting more dangerous chances overall. Michigan would get some looks with their top six, but Trey Augustine was there pretty much every time. Finally, the Wolverines started finished their chances in the third period. This is where it felt like Michigan just had better scorers and finishers. While State has depth and attacks in waves, it was once again Michigan’s individual efforts that sent them to St. Paul.

-Dylan Duke had himself a weekend. After tallying twice against North Dakota, Dylan added a couple more goals on Sunday night. He gave Michigan the lead on a phenomenal individual play flying down the boards, swooping above the crease, and beating Augustine to the far post. He later added to it with a power play deflection that put the cherry on top of the sundae for the Wolverines. He’s really starting to have a flair for the dramatic getting some really clutch goals in the career in Maize and Blue.

-Speaking of flair, Frank Nazar lead a 2v1 rush into the Spartan end, pulled the puck back between his legs, and hit Gavin Brindley on the tape to double Michigan’s lead to 4-2 with 7:06 to go in the game. Words do not do this pass justice. Go find it on Twitter (@Nastyisland, I posted it). I’ve seen goals scored this way (hello Kent Johnson and Brendan Brisson), but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an assist like that. He also had a double dangle going through two Spartans, but his chance was fired wide of Augustine in the second period.

-Gavin Brindley finished Nazar’s ridiculous pass and assisted on Dylan Duke’s tip. Brindley has had his lines jumbled, played up top on the power play, and was given a phantom penalty early in the game. It was a weird weekend for him, I thought. Regardless, he forechecked well and wreaked havoc in both games.

-Philippe Lapointe was having a nice game until he took maybe the worst penalty of the season. He was called for boarding in the offensive zone with 10:35 left in the game. That just cannot happen. He’s a fourth year player, wearing a letter. His team is up a goal, half a period from the Frozen Four. The PK breaks down, and MSU pulls even. Thankfully, his teammates bailed him out and scored three more times. If not, it could have been a long trip back to Ann Arbor.

Defense Notes.

-Seamus Casey was scratched for the biggest game of the season. That just sucks so bad for him. On the ice, though, Michigan did actually manage very well. The biggest thing is losing what he bring is a major loss. It also spreads around minutes and responsibilities. Steve Holtz and Luca Fantilli both had to take on more. For the second game in a row, they both did very well. Over the course of the season, they have been points of concern on Michigan’s blue line. They were not against North Dakota, and each backed up that performance with another solid one against Michigan State. Major props to each of them.

-With no Seamus Casey, Ethan Edwards put in a very Casey-esque performance. Another blueliner who has been up and down this season was very up again. He finished the 3v2 rush by getting into the slot and burying his chance, tying the game. Edwards also sprung Nazar on his 2v1 and eventual insane pass. Ethan was credited with an assist on Duke’s final goal of the evening, as well. That’s a 1-2-3. If you really squint, maybe you can kinda see 26 instead of 73.

-Marshall Warren might have been the best defenseman on the ice for the Wolverines…again. He’s really starting to stack games. Without Casey, he was another Wolverine that was going to be relied upon for more. Marshall was solid in his own zone, skating well, and moving the puck. He also used his size and thickness well again. It was very apropos for Jacob Truscott to find him for his goal, breaking the 1-1 deadlock with a tally from inside the dot. They’d struggled together throughout the season at times, but on a Sunday night outside of St. Louis, they combined for a crucial goal.

At the midway point of the season in early December, Michigan Hockey had already taken some major damage to the hull of their ship. It was taking on water, but not yet sinking. Repairs seemed to be on their way and there was reason to believe the storm was passing and calmer waters lay ahead. I wrote the following at that time: 

For all their flaws, this is still a top 12 team in even strength possession with elite shooters that outshoots and out-chances its opposition most nights. That's a good starting place to build around and predict a strong second half with. Tighten up the screws on the PK, play better third periods, and continue to score at a high clip on the PP and Michigan should bank points/wins at a much higher rate, one good enough to get into the NCAAs

Over this recent era of Michigan Hockey, it was almost always true that the team was better in the second half than the first half of the season. The 2017-18 team was 7-7-2 at the break, but was 18-13-3 at the end of the regular season before making a bit of a postseason run. The 2018-19's roster was fundamentally different in the two halves so it's an improper comparison (their 2nd best player was injured in the 2nd half), but here are the other seasons since then:

• 2019-20: 6-10-2 at the break and finished the regular season 16-14-4
• 2020-21: 5-5 at the break and finished the regular season 14-9-1
• 2021-22: 14-6 at the break and finished the regular season 25-9-1 (final record was 31-10-1)
• 2022-23: 12-7-1 at the break and finished the regular season 20-11-3 (final record was 26-12-3)

Due to some combination of youth/inexperience and other assorted negative factors, Michigan usually fumbled around and played with their food in the first half of the season before becoming a strong team in the second half. In the early Mel years (up through 2020) that meant turning on the jets to make a run at slipping into the NCAA Tournament. In the later Mel years + Naurato's first season, that meant going from extremely talented but mildly underachieving to "damn, these guys could win the national title", and in two cases, coming close. 

It was thus reasonable to expect, in early December, that the Michigan Hockey team that was then 8-7-3 would put together a much stronger second half. They had spent the fall portion of the season without a key defenseman (Ethan Edwards), had lost Rutger McGroarty, their most productive F, for a chunk of it, and had several other injuries and ailments at different points. It felt like there was reason to believe that Michigan could get a bit healthier, iron out some frustrating areas of their play, and go on a bit of a run in the second half as they do seemingly every year. They sat on the bubble in early December, so going on a bit of a run in a legit conference should likely be enough to get Michigan in. I wasn't majorly concerned about the season at that point. 

Now I am concerned. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: why i'm concerned]

CLICK HERE for Game Recap from Kristy McNeil and other pertinent information and HERE for current Pairwise Rankings.

What just happened (TL;DR): Penn State outplayed, outshot, and outscored Michigan in an all but Must Have game for the Wolverines. They scored on the power play, through an even strength screen, and after a Jake Barczewski bobble to outpace the inept Michigan offense. Michigan generated some shots, but could not breakdown the PSU defense or solve suddenly viable Liam Souliere. The collar is getting a little tight, now…

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS (www.collegehockeynews.com)

Forward Notes.

-Michigan clearly got some shot attempts on net. They didn’t, however, get enough of them to the net or into the net. After the first period of Friday’s game, Michigan tallied on a short-handed breakaway, an empty net goal, a even strength breakaway, and a sweet shot after a slick pass on a 3v3 rush. That’s it. Four goals in five periods…one of them being an empty-netter. All of this was against a team that entered the weekend with a .865 save percentage. Now, after the first minute of Friday’s game, Liam Souliere played very well. Basically…like he did in Allentown, last March. But that output is just not good enough to make the NCAA Tournament.

-Both of Michigan’s goals came in transition. Dylan Duke and TJ Hughes created the opening goal on a breakaway (Spoiler Alert). Gavin Brindley hit Frank Nazar with a lovely flip lead pass pushing Nazar to snipe Souliere to tie the game at 2 early in the third period.

-The Hero Line was okay, I guess. They did create Michigan’s best chances, but it did not seem like there were a lot of them on even strength (what’s a guy got to do to get some xG around here?). I noticed Garrett Schifsky skating with Brindley and McGroarty a little. TJ Hughes did the same. It will be interesting if the top line stays together next weekend against Notre Dame.

-Penn State was a different team on Saturday night. They played very, very good defense in their own zone. They did not get beat in transition (after the one happened about five minutes into the game). They also protected Liam Souliere really, really well…and then he made the saves for them. Hmmmmm…interesting.

Defense Notes.

-The defense overall wasn’t really at fault tonight. I suppose if you want to play Steve Holtz and/or Philippe Lapointe for screening Barczewski on the second goal…okay, fine. But…they were trying to block the shot. So, whatever. For the most part, the defense as a whole was fine. They didn’t turn it over in their zone repeatedly. They didn’t hang Barczewski out to dry all night. They even kept the OMR Count pretty low. It was good enough to win, tonight. Except for…

-Jacob Truscott didn’t have the best night, individually. He had a bit of a lazy clear that didn’t get out of the zone, leading to the second goal upon reversal. He also was beaten to the net on the third goal (the Jake rebound fumble), allowing Dane Dowiak to knock in the rebound.

-Seamus Casey also wasn’t himself all weekend. A couple of times, he maestro’d around the offensive zone, but it was not at the rate we’ve been accustomed to seeing him do so. It happens. It’s hard to be Steve Nash every night. He also was beaten twice badly…one for a goal.