annual complaint about basketball scheduling

If you're signed up for the program's emails this just came in:

We already knew they're playing in Brooklyn, the two ACC games plus Kentucky in London. The rest:

FERRIS STATE, Friday 11/4: The Bulldogs won the D-II national championship in 2018 and went 22-9 last season, not counting exhibition losses to Michigan State (92-58) and Xavier (100-59). They won both games against Wayne State, Michigan's exhibition opener last year, 104-73 and 75-60.

PURDUE FORT WAYNE, Monday 11/7: Went 15-6 in the Horizon League and were #237 in Kenpom. Every contributor except their high-usage #2 guard is back, including SF Jarred Godfrey (slash line: 53/38/81) and tiny PG Damian Chong Qui, who initiate most of the offense. Their center is former Vermont big Ra Kpedi, who's paint-bound, 6'9" and relies on putbacks. Their defense goes for turnovers a lot.

EMU, Friday 11/11 at Little Caesar's Arena: Ungh. Taking two Washtenaw County teams to the LCA feels like such a waste, especially when one of them is a 5-15 MAC team ranked #316 in Kenpom. That is better than the other directionals, not better than UofD Mercy or Oakland University. The Yggles added Emoni Bates but return only PG Noah Farrakhan, who transferred from ECU and hit 39% of his threes, and swatting 6'10" big Mo Njie from last year's contributors. They also have a wing who played half their minutes and slashed 42/13/62. Transfers from Georgetown and Providence don't register. At least this should end Michigan fans' obsession with Emoni.

OHIO, Sunday 11/20: Decent (#134 Kenpom) team that went 14-6 in the MAC in Jeff Boals's third season. Those Bobcats had a better record than the one that upset Virginia in the tournament the year before. Of that team they retain Just-a-Shooter SG Miles Brown, SF Ben Roderick, who had a huge comedown last year, and C Dwight Wilson, who missed last year for an injury, but lose Ben Vander Plas, the boxscore-filling stretch big who led them the last couple of years.

JACKSON STATE, Wednesday 11/23: Grindy SWAC team that could not score last year and lost their short 'n burly frontcourt to the transfer portal. Probably going to be bad but entertaining thanks to an "it's going up" guy named Gabe Watson (33% usage, 97 ORtg), who is not THAT Gabe Watson. Biggest guy on the roster is 6'8".

LIPSCOMB, Tuesday 11/29: Feisty Atlantic Sun team that runs EVERYTHING through burly center Ahsan Asadullah, who is 6'9" and looks like an offensive tackle, but will step out and shoot a three. He's got a couple of decent friends in W Jacob Ognacevic, who showed a knack for getting into the lane as a freshman, and PG Will Pruitt, a 39% three-point shooter who can get himself to the line.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN, Friday 12/30: Ranked under EMU last year (#318) but probably better than them this year. High-tempo team that takes a lot of jumpers. Sacrificed JAS Cam Healy to the portal and C Harrison Henderson to graduation, but return otherwise intact and expecting a big step forward from PG Kevin Miller, who proved an able setup man and volume scorer (99.2 ORtg despite settling for lots of contested 2PJs) as a freshman last year. 6-11 French center Nicolas Pavrette is another sophomore, and had a decent year as Henderson's backup.

THOUGHTS: Meh again, though it's not their fault the directional Michigan teams haven't been any good lately.

Ohio is the most difficult, and Michigan might be a big sluggish since that's the Sunday after they return from back-to-back games in Brooklyn on Wednesday-Thursday. Quality of opponents isn't that important anymore thanks to fixes in recent years in how they handle RPI, and Michigan has plenty of opportunities in the conference and Virginia/UNC/Kentucky games, so I'm not worried about tournament repercussions.

From a season ticket holder perspective, Virginia on a Tuesday (the one after football @ Ohio State) and a bunch of MAC/Horizon schools is a pretty weak home schedule, but I do appreciate the trolling job of having Ohio visit the week before the Cavs. We'll all share memories! From a "please don't interfere with football!" perspective, they did well—these are mostly Sunday or weekday games, and the one Friday night in Detroit is when Nebraska fans are in town.

The terrifying world of Torvik without preseason projections. You can drop the preseason projections out of Torvik by advancing the start date of your sample one day.

You should not do this, the stat persons say. Kenpom once asserted that his projections were more accurate if you left a little bit of preseason expectation in indefinitely, but people were very cross about this and the benefit was small so he didn't bother. We're not even to January, so the expectations carry an appropriately large amount of weight, especially because teams have played far fewer games than they usually do.

But let's do it anyway, because my face hasn't melted in at least a couple days. The Big Ten in this universe:

• #5 Wisconsin
• #8 Illinois
• #9 Iowa

Okay we're fine

• #15 Northwestern
• #21 Rutgers

tentacles emerge from the floor

• #25 Michigan
• #26 Indiana
• #27 Penn State

tentacles grow flowers

• #37 Purdue
• #46 Minnesota
• #50 Ohio State
• #51 Maryland

pink elephants emerge from the flowers

• #86 Michigan State
• #91 Nebraska

pink elephants explode, covering room in viscera, viscera sings "Sittin' on the Dock of the Bay."

It's not like the ranking systems are particularly enamored with MSU even when you leave expectations in. They're still second-to last on Torvik, but much closer to Maryland at #51 than Nebraska. Northwestern also gets penalized about the same amount—~30 spots—but they drop from fourth to 11th in the league as a result.

I sort of buy the projections' skepticism about Northwestern because they've experienced a lot of luck defending three-pointers. They give up a fair amount of them (181st) and opponents are hitting 27%. There are teams that can maintain opposition three-point shooing at low levels but they're usually dedicated zones or teams with incredible rim protection. Northwestern is neither.

As Ace detailed yesterday with an assist from Hoop Vision, there are reasons to believe that Northwestern's offensive turnaround is sustainable. They've mitigated much of their playmaking deficiency by using Pete Nance as a point-center in a five-out offense, a role that Nance is well-suited to. There is likely a reality check coming once teams scout the NW offense better, but Nance has proven to be a handful on the perimeter and should continue being one.

MSU… well, Ace just talked about them too but that was before last night's debacle.

[After the JUMP: a brief history of disaster factories]

HOEG. Richard Hoeg does small business law. Need to incorporate? Need some contracts? Need to talk about Star Control? Richard will do all three, and only charge you for the first two.

Anyway, Star Control. Star Control was a mindblowing video game because stuff happened in it and if you took too long you could lose the game as your allies fell to the great galactic menace. Losing is fun.

Having a bad contract and either getting sued or having to settle on unfavorable terms is not fun, and Richard Hoeg can help craft contracts for you that will avoid this eventuality. Police horses!

Tiller-era in more ways than one. This twitter bomb(!) from one of Purdue's recruiting yokels is frankly baffling:

also pic.twitter.com/OG1ks7Pr24

— Due# (@JDue51) June 21, 2018

Why pick a fight with a program that held you to 15 yards in the second half last year? Why get mad about Michigan getting recruits? You're at Purdue! With limited exceptions for legacies and locals the number of bonafide recruiting battles you're winning against Michigan—against, hell, most of the Big Ten, is zero. Also Purdue's leading receiver averaged 3.6 catches a game.

I feel like this guy bought a Big Dogs shirt for the first time and was overwhelmed by it while near his phone, and he'll return to a mild-mannered citizen tomorrow when he puts his Ron Jon back on. It happens. It's good, really. It's fun when Purdue has a bunch of ornery passing maniacs who talk shit and bend rules.

[After THE JUMP: a bunch of stuff! And porpoises!]