Hockey

And Plink-O Was It's Name-O

"Meet me in St Louis, Louis...meet me at the fair. Don't tell me the lights are shining...any place but there."

Two years ago was supposed to be THE YEAR. It wasn't. Last year was not supposed to be THE YEAR despite having THE PLAYER. It also was not. This year was not supposed to be THE YEAR. So, will it be? I don't know. That would be very college hockey, though. For a long time, it looked like Michigan wouldn't even make the Tournament. Their PK was in shambles; their defense gave up Grade As like Michigan State professors; and their roster looked like a MASH unit. However, as winter turned to spring, both the Kill and Blue Line units picked up their play. The bottom six rounded into form. Sans some erratic play in net over the last month, this team has never looked better. 

Last year's freshmen are now sophomores. Transfers (grad and otherwise) have filled out several holes in the roster. The draft picks and elite talent are still there. The team really is starting to gel. The only issue is the draw. They'll most likely have to beat two top ten teams in order to make it to their third straight Frozen Four. Did they mess around too long and make their road too difficult?

First up: the long time Badland-laden foe, North Dakota.

 

The Field

Michigan’s Regional (Maryland Heights, MO )

(1) Michigan State, (2) North Dakota, (3) Michigan, (4) Western Michigan: Hoo boy! Hello, death, old friend. Well, at least MSU is the best possible option of a #1 seed to get. Obviously, they're good...we've certainly seen that. But are they significantly better than Michigan? Eh. Plus, after last Saturday night's fiasco sans Big Ten refs? I'll take it. North Dakota as the #2 seed, though? Ouch. Michigan doesn't exactly have the best tournament record against the Fighting Sioux Hawks. Since 1998, the Wolverines are 1-3 against NoDak in the NCAAs. This isn't one of THOSE North Dakota teams, though. They're good, but not UH OH good. The Brooooooooncos are the final team. MSU does not get a pollywog as their opening game. They're at at-large #4 seed. Also...if we're going to have three teams from one state, maybe we should just play it...oh, never mind.

 

(2) North Dakota vs (3) Michigan

Team

Corsi Rank

PP%

PK%

Players Drafted

Skaters >.75 ppg

GAA

Save%

Record in last 5 games

KRACH Prob of winning

North Dakota

21 26% 82% 11 4 2.47 .906 2-3 60%

Michigan

12 35% 79% 10 7 2.83 .907 4-1 40%

 

Last time... [Patrick Barron]

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against North Dakota (because David likes stealing Alex's thunder from the full preview on Friday):

1. Make a Save. For most of the year, Jake Barczewski has been fine. Not elite, but good enough. It's mostly been the defense that has been the letdown. That has not been the case over the last month or so. Michigan's in-zone defense has been very good...aided by great back-checking from the forwards. However, four of Barzo's last five games have been questionable. While there are ways to make up for a struggling netminder, it's much harder to do in a single elimination tournament. If Michigan wants to take down a quality opponent, they're just going to need a great game from Barczewski.

2. Keep Shooting. Ludwig Persson's SV% is just a tick lower than Barczewski's. Not drawing a Trey Augustine or Ryan Bischel in the first game is ideal. Only 6'0" tall, the NoDak netminder is forced to come out and challenge shots. Persson has given up at least three goals in six of his last ten games. He can be beaten. Michigan generally does well in puck possession and they do have shooters. Pepper Persson and pour pucks into the net.

3. Bracket Blake. Jackson Blake, son of former New York Islander Jason Blake, is the best player for the Fighting Hawks. While they do have other goal scorers, Blake leads the team in assists...by 13. He's averaging 1.51 points/game. Jackson has also scored at least a point in his last 10 games and in 20 of his last 21. That's how you become the nation's second leading scorer. It goes without saying that he needs to be watched and tracked every time he's on the ice. 

Final Thoughts: Hmmm...I'm not really sure. I don't hate this matchup for Michigan. It actually feels really even. Michigan might have the slight advantage on special teams, but how many calls will there be in the Tournament? It kinda feels like this will be a tight game that will come down to the end...maybe even OT. Of course it will be OT. I think this could be Michigan's biggest obstacle in the Regional. Oh no...what if Keaton Pehrson scores the winner?

Alex's Take: you can read my answer on Friday

Peter's Take: There is not a lot of difference statistically between these two team teams as they enter this game. Michigan scores almost a 1/2 goal a game more, but NoDak gives up 1/2 goal a game less. The Fighting Hawks have a goal differential of +47 and Michigan has a +44. The goaltenders, Persson for North Dakota, and Barczewski for Michigan, have almost identical save percentages at .906 and .907 respectively. The difference is going to come down to 3 things:

1. Who will win the special teams battle? With the #1 powerplay in the NCAA, Michigan will need to cash in when the opportunities arise, having gone 1/3 last weekend against MSU. NoDak's penalty kill is 22nd in the nation, but what helps them is they are only whistled for 7.7 penalty minutes on average per game. The Hawks need to stay out of the box and minimize the opportunities that Michigan gets. 

2. Who will play better team defense in their own zone? In last Saturday's game against MSU, the Wolverines started off playing good team defense, which was reflected by only surrendering 6 shots in the 1st period, but old habits kicked in and they started trading chances and ended up giving up a number of Grade-A opportunities. North Dakota did a total overhaul of their defense this year and at times it has looked good, but there have been a number of games where they were running around giving up a ton of scoring chances, and it bit them in the hindquarters in the semi-final last week against Omaha.

3. Which team will win the transition game? This is an area where Michigan can excel. When Michigan forwards track back hard from the offensive zone, which they've been doing a lot this past month (noticeably the bottom 6 forwards), it allows the defense to stand up in the neutral zone and break up plays which gives them the puck back and allows them to reload and re-attack. If Michigan wins these three areas, it will be on to the Regional Final on Sunday.

[AFTER THE JUMP: All of the games that don't involve Michigan]

1 hour and 11 minutes

With David Nasternak and Alex Drain

This Podcast Has a Sponsor: Michigan Law Grad Jonathan Paul is the guy with the C you want skating next to the ref and pleading your case. He's also a good guy to sit next to at the hockey games.

Segment 1: Whatever That Was

  • Opener
  • Early Dominance
  • Whatever That Call Was
  • Goaltending and Other Oddities

Segment 2: NCAA Tournament Preview

  • North Dakota Fighting Not Sioux
  • MSU again?? Maybe Western.
  • The Other Regionals
  • Final Thoughts and Takeaways

[Player after THE JUMP]

RETVRN? [Bryan Fuller]

I don't think this is a real thing. Jeff Goodman asserted that May had received assurances that admissions wasn't going to be as much of a problem for him as it was for Juwan Howard, something that Sam Webb said he had not heard. My assumption is that this is a game of telephone several persons downwind of this conversation:

Sources say Beilein sat in on the first hour or so of the meeting between Manuel and May, answering a number of basketball specific questions about how he built his program, how he recruited, and how he dealt with admissions. It was a meaningful assist.

I doubt there has been a conversation between Santa Ono and the dean of LS&A about letting guys into school, unfortunately.

Staffers. Potential names from 24/7's Davis Moseley:

Two of those names will be familiar. Adam Howard is a grad assistant at Indiana currently who knows May well; Indiana fans are bizarrely upset at the prospect of losing him because they credit him with a lot of the recruiting grunt work. Bill Armstrong is a wild name: he was the associate head coach at LSU until Will Wade got sent to Bolivia by the NCAA. He's cooling his heels at Link Academy—the school Tarris Reed was at—this year. If that came to fruition that would be your recruiting guy, I'd imagine. I'm skeptical it does.

[After THE JUMP: portal time]

"They need butts in seats in that room. And in the stadium."

Close, but not cigar.

Looking to collect more rings 

Michigan in Mariucci in March = $$$

Final Score:

Friday - (Michigan 2, Minnesota 1)

"Just because you have low sperm count doesn't mean you don't love your wife."

Three in a row at Mariucci in the Big Ten Tournament!

is the culture of the #129 team in Kenpom bad 

who to cheer for in this weekend's college hockey matchups